辽宁中部城市群景观动态模拟与预测研究

辽宁中部城市群是我国城镇最密集的地区之一，经过几十年快速的城市发展和工业建设，造成了严重环境污染和生态破坏，区域的景观发生了巨大的变化。本文研究辽宁中部城市群城市空间增长和景观动态，为辽宁中部城市群的科学规划和管理提供决策支持，对辽宁省生态环境与社会经济的可持续发展具有重要的意义。 本文利用3S技术、转移矩阵和景观格局指数方法对辽宁中部城市群1988-- 2004 年的城市增长和景观变化进行了综合分析，采用历史数据对城市增长和景观变化模型SLEUTH进行校正，并对历史时期的城市增长和景观变化进行模拟重建；利用ROC曲线统计、Kappa指数系列和景观格局指数对SLEUTH的模拟结果进行精度评价；在五种不同的预案下对辽宁中部城市群未来（2005-2045年）城市增长和景观动态进行模拟预测。本文得到如下结论： 1. 1988-2004年间，辽宁中部城市群的城市面积持续增长，扩展强度不断增强，1997-2000年的城市扩展强度最大，增长速度最快。城市空间格局的变化表现出阶段性的特征，1988-1997年城市面积的增长速度较慢，结构紧凑，以边缘增长和填充增长为主；1997-2004年城市面积增长较快，城市向外蔓延，城市斑块形状变得复杂，以开发区的飞地式增长和扩散增长为主。 2. 1997-2004年间，辽宁中部城市群的景观变化明显，农村居民点的面积增长最大，其次为城市；林草地的面积减少最大，其次为耕地。各景观类型中城市的增长速度最快，林草地减少的速度最快。辽宁中部城市群的城市增长和景观变化主要集中在中部的城镇密集带。城镇密集带将是未来城市群规划和管理的关键区域。辽宁中部城市群景观格局受人类活动影响增强，景观破碎化程度加大。景观中林草地和耕地的优势地位有所减弱，破碎化程度增加，斑块形状日益复杂；在城镇密集带内，耕地面积流失较大，耕地占景观面积比例减少较快，破碎化程度较大。随着城市化进程的加快和人类活动的增强，辽宁中部城市群表现出复杂的格局变化特征。 3. 1988-2004年，辽宁中部城市群城市增长的主要驱动力是社会经济发展和政策因素，其中人口和经济的高速增长、国家及区域政策导致的城市开发、生 态环境保护政策、城市规划和基础设施建设等因素是城市群城市空间快速增长的主要因素。辽宁中部城市群的景观变化受到自然和人类两大类驱动因素的共同作用。气候、水文、矿产资源等自然驱动力对城市群景观变化的影响也较大。人口增长、城市和村镇聚落增长、农业开发、经济发展、政治政策和工业化等主要的人类驱动力对辽宁中部城市群景观变化影响较大。 4. 利用ROC 曲线统计、Kappa 指数系列和景观格局指数从城市增长总体预测能力、增长数量和空间格局上对SLEUTH 模型的城市增长模拟结果进行精度评估；利用Kappa 指数系列和景观格局指数对SLEUTH的景观变化预测结果进行评价。总体上讲，SLEUTH模型对辽宁中部城市群城市增长和景观动态模拟预测具有良好的可信精度，较好地模拟了1988-2004年的城市增长和1997-2004年城市群的景观动态。 5. SLEUTH 模型效力的主要影响因素包括模型结构、城市发展特征、模型应用的时空尺度和模型输入数据的获取与误差传递等。通过修改模型参数设置、开展模型敏感性与不确定性分析等可以提高SLEUTH 模型的模拟效力，并提出城市分类标准对SLEUTH准确性的影响，通过对部分研究区的检验研究，证明城市分类标准对SLEUTH模型的校正和模拟预测结果影响较大。 6. 基于SLEUTH模型，从城市群城市空间增长、景观要素和社会经济政策等方面设计了五种城市群发展和景观变化预案，即历史趋势预案（Historical Trend, HT），区域开发政策和城市规划预案（Regional development policy and Urban planning policy, RU），生态可持续发展预案（Ecological Sustainable development，ES），两个密集增长预案（Compact Growth，CG1和CG2）等。通过预案分析，考察不同的条件下未来城市群城市空间增长和景观动态特征，研究认为密集的城市增长预案是未来辽宁中部城市群发展的较好预案，为辽宁中部城市群的规划、管理和可持续发展提供决策支持。

未来气候变化对黄土高原黑河流域水资源的影响

气候变化对黄土高原的水资源有重要影响,对其影响进行评估可以为区域发展提供重要的决策依据。基于分布式水文模型SWAT和4种全球环流模式的各3种排放情景,评估了2010～2039年黄土高塬沟壑区黑河流域水资源对气候变化的潜在响应。结果表明,黑河流域2010～2039年的年均降水变化-2.3%～7.8%,年均最高和最低温度分别升高0.7～2.2℃和1.2～2.8℃,年均径流量变化-19.8%～37.0%,1.2m剖面年均土壤水分含量变化-5.5%～17.2%,年均蒸散量普遍增长0.1%～5.9%;水文气象变量变化趋势复杂,但T检验表明年降水、径流、土壤水分和蒸散增长的概率较大。对于季节变化,降水可能在12～7月份和9月份增长,8月份和10～11月份减少;径流在4～7月份和9～10月份增加,11～3月份和8月份减少;土壤水分在各月都增长;蒸散11～6月份普遍增长,7～10月份减少的可能性较大。未来气候将发生显著变化并对水资源有重要影响,需采取必要的措施来减缓其不利影响。

青藏高原东部混农季节性放牧及其对高山林线格局的影响

混农季节性放牧（agropastoral transhumance）通过作物种植和畜牧生产相结合的方式对不同海拔高度带上的资源进行相互补充利用，在亚洲兴都库什地区、青藏高原、横断山、东部及南部非洲、南美安第斯地区等具有悠久的历史。这种传统的生计系统几千年以来一直是居住在该地区的人类社会和自然生态系统相互作用的主要形式之一。这种传统的资源利用方式与山地自然植被以及特殊的山地人类文化和社会特征具有密切的协同演变关系。认识和理解这一关系，是山地生态学和人类学的核心科学问题之一。近年来，山地生态系统的多重功能性及动态演变对山区社会经济可持续发展的重要意义受到人们的不断关注。本文通过对云南省德钦县的12个自然村的混农季节性放牧以及对云南德钦、四川壤塘等山地植被格局特别是高海拔地带植被格局的的详细调查，探讨青藏高原东缘地区混农季节性放牧的主要特征、系统构成及相互关系，及其在全球变化、经济全球化和市场化及现代化过程中的变化趋势，分析混农季节性放牧与高山林线格局及生态系统的互动关系，旨在探讨山地地区人类活动与自然生态系统之间的互动关系，从而为山区社会经济可持续发展、环境建设和生物多样性保护等国家战略提供理论依据。 调查结果表明，混农季节性放牧是一种适应青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区环境因子及自然资源呈明显的垂直分布、资源数量稀少而时空分布异质性极高的生存环境的一种传统经济形式。这种传统的畜牧业的主要生产目的仍然是提供当地基本生存所需的产品，饲养牲口的种类和数量取决于农户的当地需求并且受资源的限制，因而维持在比较低的水平的。分布在不同海拔高度的放牧资源在一年中被牲口利用的时间也不同，互为补充，共同构成混农季节性放牧的资源基础。根据各社区永久居住点的位置和该村的土地资源特别是牧草地资源的分布范围，牲口迁移的距离和格局有较大的差异。。天然牧场仍然是最主要的畜牧业生产资源。混农季节性放牧中的农业系统和牧业系统互为补充，共同构成调查地区完整的的生计系统，农耕活动为放牧活动提供精饲料如粮食等和冬季饲料如秸秆， 其数量往往成为家庭畜牧业生产规模的主要决定因子之一。 通过对牲口数量和结构、牲口的时空迁移格局、牧业活动在整个经济活动中的相对重要性以及牧业活动和作物种植的关系方面的研究分析，混农季节性放牧在近几十年发生了深刻的变化。主要表现在牲口数量总体下降，牲口组成发生变化，牲口移动性降低、牧业活动的经济重要性下降以及牧业活动和种植活动之间的相互依存度降低等。上述变化的根本驱动力是发生在当地、地区及全球尺度上的环境、政治、社会经济、技术和文化等的变化，从而造成当地群众畜牧生产目标、土地利用和劳动力的分布等发生了变化。当地生计系统发生的改变可能会带来对方面而深刻的政治、社会经济、文化和生态影响。 混农季节性放牧这种古老的传统生计策略面临着许多挑战，如冬季饲料短缺、草场退化、缺乏市场竞争力、经济重要性降低、对年轻人缺乏吸引力、国家缺乏专门的政策指导等。与此同时，经济全球化、市场经济、新技术的应用、替代生计机会的增加、国家对于山地生态系统的作用的重新定位等也为传统生计系统转型、实现社会与生态共赢创造了机遇。 混农季节性放牧活动对亚高山及树线交错带生态系统系统的互动方式主要体现在以下几个方面：（1）牲口啃食、践踏等影响森林群落更新，改变森林群落的组成和结构，从而影响森林群落的演替进程和植被格局。林线边缘是搭建夏棚的首选地点，因此林线及树线交错地带就成了牲口活动的主要场所之一；（2）利用火烧开辟、维持和改良高山牧场； 3）在亚高山火灾迹地的放牧活动能够阻止火烧迹地的顺向演替； 4）牧民在林线附近获取建材和薪材等活动影响高山林线附近森林的结构和功能。 在调查区域，梅里雪山、白马雪山、甲午雪山的林线海拔高度在4200-4300m之间； 四川雅江、理塘一线，林线位置多在4300-4400m；四川壤塘二林场一带的林线主体在4100-4200m，在个别地区达到4300m； 在贡嘎山的南坡和东坡一带，林线位置在3600-3700m；而在四川松潘一带，林线位置主体在3700-3800米左右。树线高度的分布趋势和林线一致。混农季节性放牧及其有关人类利用活动使研究地区很多地方高山林线降低、树线交错带宽变窄或消失。在研究地区，总体情况是，阳坡和半阳坡（南坡、西南坡等）的林线和树线比阴坡和半阴坡（北坡、东北坡等）低，变化幅度达20-200m。这种差异主要是为了开辟牧场而人为清除了南向坡自然林线及其以上的植被从而使林线位置下降所致。在南坡自然林线保留得比较好的地方，林线和树线依然可以达到甚至超过北坡林线和树线的高度。放牧活动抑制了高山林线带火烧迹地的天然更新，从而使林线位置保持在目前的位置。 放牧活动对高山林线带森林群落更新的影响是显著的。自然林线内的乔木个体密度特别是新生苗和幼苗的密度大大高于非自然林线。没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带内的I级个体（新生苗）密度达到725-2917株/公顷，而与之相对的处理样地内I级个体的密度只有0-228株/公顷；II级个体（高度10-50cm）也表现出类似的趋势，在没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带样方内，其密度达到550-5208株/，而在放牧处理样方内只有14-321株/公顷。在非自然林线带样地内，在有正常放牧的样地内，完全缺乏I级个体。 从相对比例来看，没有放牧的样方内的I、II级个体在全部个体中所占的比例显著高于有放牧活动的样方。放牧使林线交错带的乔木幼苗数量显著减少，从而影响林线及树线交错带森林群落的天然更新过程。林线和树线交错带的灌木对乔木幼苗具有重要的保护作用，能够为树线树种如冷杉等幼苗的定居体提供有利的微气候环境，同时保护苗免受牲口的啃食和践踏。火烧以后接着进行放牧能够100%地抑制高山林线带的幼苗更新。 高山牧场放牧强度降低、使用时间缩短而低海拔地带放牧强度增加是研究地区混农季节性放牧系统的一个显著变化。这种变化也必然会引起各海拔带上的生态系统的变化。放牧强度的降低、生产性用火的停止将导致原来通过人工火烧而降低并通过进一步的火烧和放牧活动来维持的林线及其以上地带的灌木盖度和高度的增加，从而为林线森林群落的扩张创造条件。 青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区是我国重要的山地生态系统，在我国的生物多样性保护、生态环境建设、社会经济可持续发展战略中具有举足轻重的作用。正确认识人类特别是当地传统的生计系统与生态环境系统的互动关系是实现上述战略目标的前提。决策者必须以综合、系统的的视角协调促进社会经济可持续发展、保护生物及文化多样性和维持人、牲口和生态系统之间的平衡的多重目标。 Agropastoral transhumance, which makes a complementary exploitation of the natural resources at different altitudinal belts through a combination of migratory animal husbandry and crop cultivation, has a long history in Hindu-Kush Himalaya, Tibet Plateau, Hengduan Ranges, eastern and southern Africa and the Andes region of south America.For millennia, this traditional livelihood strategy has been one of the main forms of interaction between human societies inhabiting in these regions and their natural ecocystems. A close co-evolutionary relationship has been developed between this indigenous resources management systems and the mountain vegetation systems on the one hand and a unique set of cultural values and social features on the other. Understanding this relationship has been one of the core scientific issues in mountain ecology and anthropology. In recent years, the importance of the multiple functions of the mountain ecosystems and their dynamic changes in the sustainable socio-economic development of the mountain regions has gained increasing attention. This paper, which is based on a detailed study on the agropastoral practices of the 12 natural villages in Deqin County of Yunnan, and the mountainnn vegetation patterns in Deqin of Yunnan and Rangtang County of Sichuan, intends to reveal the major characteristics, system composition and the inter-relations of the subsystems of the agropastoral transhumance in Eastern Tibetan Plateau as well as the trends of changes of the system within the context of global changes, economic globalization and modernity process of China and analyze the relations between agropastoral transhumance and alpine ecosystem, ao as to understand the interactions between human activities and natural ecosystems of the mountains and provide theoretical basis for the national strategies in eocioeconomic development, environmental reconstruction and biodiversity conservation in the mountain regions. Results of the survey indicate that agropastoral transhumance in the investigated area is a traditional economic form that is highly adapted to the eastern Tibet Plateau where the topography features high peaks and deep gorges and where the highly variable environmental parameters and scanty natural resources exhibit a distinct vertical spectrum of distribution and great temporal and spatial heterogeneity. The main objective of pastoral management is still aimed at the production of basic goods and services of local people and thus the type and size of animals raised for each household mainly depend on local needs and are limited by the availability of natural resources. The scale of production is relatively low. Pastoral resources at different altidudinal belts are complementarily used at different seasons of a year and thus form the resources basis for agropastoral production of the study area. Migration distances and patterns vary with the location of the permanent settlements, the elevational distribution range of the resources of the villages concerned. Natural pastures (rangelands) are the main fodder resources and sumplement feedings only account for less than 5% of the total fodder consumption. Crop cultivation and pastoral activities support each other to form a complete livelihood system. The ability of the farmig lands (crop cultivation) to provide the pastoral activities with concentrates and sumplements often becomes a main factor limiting the scale of livestock production at household level. Agropastoral transhumance is experiencing drastic changes in recent decades as is reflected in the size and composition of animals, the seasonal migration pattern, the relative importance of pastoralism in the household economy and the interplays of agricultural and pastoral elements of the system. In general, there is a decline in animal population and mobility, a shift in animal composition to meet new needs arising from changed macro-economic situation, a decrease in the relative importance in the household economy and an increasing decoupling of agro&pastoral relations. The fundamental divers of these changes can be traced to environmental, social, economic, technological and cultural changes from local to global levels and such changes have further caused local changes in livestock management objectives, land use and distribution of labor forces. Changes in local livelihood systems could have profound political, socioeconomic, cultural and ecological conseuquences. Agropastoral transhumance, as an age-old traditional livelihood strategy, is facing multifacet challenges, such as winter fodder shortage, rangeland degradation, lack of market competitiveness, decrease in economic importance, lack of appreciation among the young generation and adequate policies from the government. At the same time, economic globalization, market economy, intrdoctution of new technologies, increase of alternative income generating opportunities and the national re-oreitation of policies on mountain ecosystems have all brought about new opportunities for the transformation of the traditional livelihood system and the synchronized development of local society and the environment. Agropastoral transhumance interacts with the ecosystems at the timberline and treeline ecotone mainly through the following aspects: 1)Animal browsing and stamping affect the regeneration process of the forest communities and alters the composition and structure of the forest which in turn affect the succession process and vegetation pattern of the forest communities. Forest edges are the priority locations for summer houses and therefore the timeline and treeline area becomes the major venues of aninal activities; （2）herders create, maintain and improve pastures through burning that remove the forest communities at the timeline and treeline ecotone; 3）immediate grazing on the fire sites can significantly prevent the fire sites from perogressive succession; and 4）herders harvesting of construction timber and firewoods affects the structure and functions of the forest communities at the timberline and treeline zone. Timberline position in the survey region shows geographical variations. It is around 4200-4300m in Meilixueshan, Baimaxueshan and Jiawuxueshan in Northwest of Yunnan and rises to 4300-4400m in Yajiang County and Litang County of Sichuan. In Rangtang of Sichuan, it is between 4100-4200m, though reaching 4300m in localized sites. In the southern and eastern slopes of Gongga Mountain, the timberline is only between 3600m and 3700m and in Songpan County at the upper reach of the Minjiang River the timberline is around 3700-3800m.Treeline pattern follows similar trend. In many places, agropastoral transhumance and related human activities have lowered the timberline and treeline and narrowed or removed the treeline ecotone. In the area of survey, generally speaking, timberlines and treelines are lower on the southern slopes than on the northern slopes, with a difference between 20 and 200m. This is mainly because that the use of fires to crerate pastures has removed the forest vegetation at the previous timberline and above. In fact, in many places, well-preserved forests on the south slopes have even high timberline position that the corresponding northern slopes. At subalpine zone, grazing activities could have prohibited the natural regeneration of many forest fire sites and maintained the forest position at the present level. Grazing has a significant impact on the regernation process of forest communities at the timberline zone. Natural timberline and treeline ecotone has much higher density of treeline species individuals especially the emergents and seedlings than the timberlines that are maintained by human activities. In natural timberline and treelien ecotone without grazing interference, the density of the I Class seedlings (less than 10cm in height) ranges 725-2917 /hm2; while that in the treatment plots (with grazing disturbance) is only 0-228//hm2；II Class seedlings (10-50cm）exhibit similar density trends, reaching 550-5208//hm2 in natural timberline without grazing but only 14-321//hm2 in the plots with grazing treatment. In the man-created timberlines, there is no I Class seedling at all in plots with normal grazing activities. In relative terms, in plots without grazing activities, the propotion of I Class and II Class seedlings is much higher than that in plots with grazing. Grazing activities have significantly reduced the number of seedlings in the timberline ane treeline ecotone, and thus affect the natural regeneration process of the forests. Shrubs at the timberline and treeline ecotone can effectively protect the seedlings from severe climate and animal tramping, thus increasing the survival rate of the seedlings. Grazing following fires can completely inhibit forest regeneration process at timberline. Changes in agropastoral transhumance will have great impact on the timberline and treeline pattern of the studied area. The decrease in grazing intensity on alpine pastrues and the cessation of the use of fires will result an increase in the cover and height of shrubs above the present human-maintained treeline, which will create further condition for the expansion of timberline forest communities. Eastern Tibet Plateau harbors some most important mountain ecosystems of China that are of vital importance to the country’s strategy in biodiversity conservation, environmental construction and sustainable sociaoeconomic development. A proper knowledge of the interactions between traditional livelihood systems and the ecosystems in the region is a precondition to the realization of the above strategic goals. Therefore, the decision-makers must have a holistic and systemic perspective so as to integrate the multiple objectives of promoting sustainable socioeconomic development, conserving biological and cultural diversity and maintaining the balances among people, animal population and the ecosystems.

不同放牧强度下高山草甸生态系统碳氮分布格局和循环过程研究

本研究针对川西北高山草甸缺乏科学管理，过度放牧导致草场退化，并由此引发的一系列生态环境问题，选取红原县瓦切乡1996 年草地承包后形成的四个放牧强度草场，即不放牧、轻度（1.2 头牦牛hm-1）、中度（2.0 头牦牛hm-1）和重度放牧（2.9 头牦牛hm-1），作为研究对象，研究了不同放牧强度对草地植物-土壤系统中碳、氮这两个最基本物质的分布格局和循环过程的影响，并探讨了放牧干扰下高山草甸生态系统的管理。 1．放牧对草地植物群落物种组成，尤其是优势种，产生了明显的影响。不放牧、轻度、中度和重度放牧草地群落物种数分别为22，23，26，20 种，群落盖度分别是不放牧96.2%＞中度93.6%＞轻度89.7%＞重度73.6%。随放牧强度的增加， 原植物群落中的优势种垂穗鹅冠草（ Roegneria nutans ）、发草（Deschampsia caespitosa）和垂穗披碱草（Elymus nutans）等禾草逐渐被莎草科的川嵩草（Kobresia setchwanensis）和高山嵩草（Kobresia pygmaea）所取代成为优势种。同时，随放牧强度的增加，高原毛茛（Ranunculus brotherusii）、狼毒（Stellera chamaejasme）、鹅绒委陵菜（Potentilla anserina）和车前（Plantagodepressa）等杂类草的数量也随之增加。 2．生长季6～9 月份，草地植物地上和地下生物量（0～30cm）都是从6 月份开始增长，8 月份达到最高值，9 月份开始下降。每个月份，通常地上生物量以不放牧为最高，重度放牧总是显著小于不放牧；地下生物量随放牧强度的增加表现为增加的趋势，通常重度和中度放牧显著高于不放牧和轻度放牧草地。不放牧、轻度、中度和重度放牧草地6～9 月份4 个月的植物总生物量平均值分别是1543、1622、2295 和2449 g m-2，但随放牧强度的增加越来越来多的生物量被分配到了地下部分，地下生物量占总生物量比例的大小顺序分别是重度88%＞中度82%＞轻度76%＞不放牧69%。生物量这种变化主要是由于放牧使得群落优势种发生改变而引起的，其分配比例的变化体现了草地植物对放牧干扰的适应策略。 3．植物碳氮贮量的季节变化类似与生物量的变化。每个月份，不同放牧强度间植物地上碳氮的贮量有所不同，一般重度放牧会显著减少植物地上碳氮贮量。植物根系(0～30cm)碳氮贮量随放牧强度的增加表现为增加的趋势，通常重度和中度放牧显著高于不放牧和轻度放牧草地。不放牧、轻度、中度和重度放牧草地6～9 月份4 个月的植物总碳平均值分别是547、586、847 和909 g m-2，根系碳贮量占植物总碳的比例大小顺序分别是重度88%＞中度82%＞轻度76%＞不放牧69%；放牧、轻度、中度和重度放牧草地6～9 月份4 个月的植物总氮平均值分别是17、17、23 和26 g m-2，根系氮贮量占植物总氮的比例大小顺序分别是重度79%＞轻度71%＞中度70%＞不放牧65%。 4. 土壤有机碳贮量（0～30cm）的季节变化表现为7 月份略有下降，8 月开始增加，9 月份达到的最大值。土壤氮贮量的季节变化表现为随季节的推移逐渐增加的趋势。增加的放牧强度不同程度的增加土壤有机碳氮的贮量。不放牧、轻度、中度和重度放牧6～9 月份4 个月的土壤有机碳贮量的平均值分别是9.72、10.36、10.62 和11.74 kg m-2，土壤氮贮量分别为1.45、1.56、1.66 和1.83 kg m-2。土壤中有机碳（氮）的贮量都占到了植物-土壤系统有机碳（氮）的90%以上，但不同放牧强度之间的差异不明显。 5. 土壤氮的总硝化和反硝化，温室气体N2O 和CO2 的释放率的季节变化表现为从6 月份开始增加，7 月份达到最大值，8 月份开始下降，9 月份降为最小值。增加的放牧强度趋向于增加土壤氮的总硝化和反硝化作用，温室气体N2O和CO2 的释放率，通常情况下，中度放牧和重度放牧显著地加强了这些过程。 6．垂穗鹅冠草（Roegneria nutans）和川嵩草（Kobresia setchwanensis）凋落物在不同放牧强度下经过1 年的分解，两种凋落物的失重率及其碳氮的损失率3都随放牧增加表现为增加的趋势。在同一放牧强度下，川嵩草凋落物的失重率和碳氮的损失率都高于垂穗鹅冠草凋落物。 7. 尽管重度放牧显著增加了土壤碳氮的贮量，但同时也显著降低了植被群落盖度，降低了植物地上生物量，因此，久而久之会减少植物向土壤中的碳氮归还率；与不放牧和轻度放牧相比，重度放牧又显著增加了土壤CO2 和NO2 的排放量，这是草地生态系统碳氮损失的重要途径。由此可见，对于这些地处青藏高原的非常脆弱的高山草甸生态系统，长期重度放牧不仅导致植物生产力降低，而且将导致草地生态系统退化，甚至造成土壤中碳氮含量减少。 Long-term overgrazing has resulted in considerable deterioration in alpine meadowof the northwest Sichan Province. In order to explore management strategies for thesustainability of these alpine meadows, we selected four grasslands with differentgrazing intensity (no grazing-NG: 0, light grazing-LG: 1.2, moderate grazing-MG: 2.0,and heavy grazing-HG: 2.9 yaks ha-1) to evaluate carbon, nitrogen pools and cyclingprocesses within the plant-soil system in Waqie Village, Hongyuan County, Sichuan Province. 1. Grazing obviously changed the plant species composition, especially ondominant plant species. Total number of species is 22, 23, 26, and 20 for NG, LG, MGand HG, respectively. Vegetation coverage under different grazing intensity ranked inthe order of 96.2% for HG＞93.6% for MG＞89.7% for LG＞73.6% for NG. Thedominator of HG community shifted from grasses-Roegneria nutans andDeschampsia caespitosa dominated in the NG and LG sites into sedges-Kobresiapygmaea and K. setchwanensis. At the same time, with the increase of grazingintensity, the numbers of forbs, such as Ranunculus brotherusii, Stellera chamaejasme,Potentilla anserine and Plantago depressa, increased with grazing intensity. 2. Over the growing season, aboveground and belowground biomass showed a 5single peak pattern with the highest biomass in August. For each month, abovegroundbiomass usually was the highest in the NG site and lowest in the HG site.Belowground biomass showed a trend of increase as grazing intensity increased and itwas significantly higher in the HG and MG site than in the NG and LG sites. Totalplant biomass averaged over the growing season is 1543, 1622, 2295 and 2449 g m-2for NG, LG, MG and HG, respectively. The proportion of biomass to total plantbiomass for NG, LG, MG and HG is 88%, 82%, 76% and 69%, respectively. Higherallocation ratio for is an adaptive response of plant to grazing. 3. Carbon and nitrogen storage in plant components followed the similar seasonalpatterns as their biomass under different grazing intensities. Generally, heavy grazingsignificantly decreases aboveground biomass carbon and nitrogen compared to nograzing. Carbon and nitrogen storage in root tended to increase as grazing increasedand they are significantly higher in the HG and MG sites compared to the LG and NGsite. Total Carbon storage in plant system averaged over the growing season is 547,586, 847 and 909 g m-2 for NG, LG, MG and HG, respectively, while 17, 17, 23 and 26g m-2 for nitrogen. The proportion of carbon storage in root to total plant carbon forNG, LG, MG and HG is 88%, 82%, 76%, 69%, respectively, while 65%, 71%, 70%and 79% for nitrogen. 4. Carbon storage in soil (0-30cm) decreased slightly in July, then increased inAugust and peaked in September. Nitrogen storage in soil tended to increase withseason and grazing intensity. Total Carbon storage in soil averaged over the growingseason is 9.72, 10.36, 10.62 and11.74 kg m-2 for NG, LG, MG and HG, respectively,while 1.45, 1.56, 1.66 and 1.83 for nitrogen. The proportion of carbon (nitrogen)storage in soil to plant-soil system carbon (nitrogen) storage for NG, LG, MG and HGis more than 90%, which is not markedly different among different grazing intensities. 5. Gross nitrification, denitrification, CO2 and N2O flux rates in soil increasedfrom June to July and then declined until September, all of which tended to increasewith the increase of grazing intensity. Generally, heavy and moderate grazing intensitysignificantly enhanced these process compared to no and light grazing intensity. 6. After decomposing in situ for a year, relative weight, carbon and nitrogen loss in the litter of Roegneria nutans and Kobresia setchwanensis tended to increase asgrazing intensity increased. Under the same grazing intensity, relative weight, carbonand nitrogen loss in the litter of Kobresia setchwanensis were higher than these in thelitter of Roegneria nutans. 7. Although heavy grazing intensity resulted in higher levels of carbon andnitrogen in plant and soil, it decreased vegetation coverage and aboveground biomass,which are undesirable for livestock production and sustainable grassland development.What is more, heavy grazing could also introduce potential carbon and nitrogen lossvia increasing CO2 and N2O emission into the atmosphere. Grazing at moderateintensity resulted in a plant community dominated by forage grasses with highaboveground biomass productivity and N content. The alpine meadow ecosystems inTibetan Plateau are very fragile and evolve under increasing grazing intensity by largeherbivores; therefore, deterioration of the plant-soil system, and possible declines insoil C and N, are potential without proper management in the future.

九寨沟核心景区湖泊硅藻的组成及其密度与环境因子的关系

九寨沟自然保护区地处四川盆地北部岷山山脉南段，属川西高原气候中的暖温带。保护区内分布着118 个串珠状排列的高山湖泊，核心景区共有湖泊20 个（组），集中在海拔2000 米到3000 米之间。水资源是九寨沟的灵魂，保护水生生态系统是九寨沟生态旅游可持续发展的立足之本。本研究以九寨沟湿地生物多样性保护项目为依托，于2007 年5 月～2008 年4 月对九寨沟核心景区湖泊水体硅藻植物进行调查，分析了其密度与环境因子的相互关系，旨在为九寨沟湖泊生态系统保护提供科学依据和基础资料。主要有以下几点结论： （1）九寨沟硅藻植物丰富，调查统计为2 纲6 目10 科35 属159 种（包括变种和变型），水体硅藻中真性浮游种类较少，着生种类多，羽纹纲的脆杆藻属、舟形藻属、桥弯藻属、异极藻属、曲壳藻属的种类最多，常为优势属组成湖泊硅藻群落，只在长海是小环藻属占绝对优势。 （2）九寨沟水体中硅藻细胞密度不大，多在4×104～30×104 个/L，长海最高，五花海最低。在年变化上，不同的湖泊水体中硅藻的生长高峰季节不尽相同，在夏季、秋末和冬末春初均有可能出现高密度。在空间上，整体看来密度与海拔有一定的正相关，但由于水温不是单一主导因素，密度受多种环境因子影响，在海拔梯度上呈现一定的波浪状变化。 （3）影响九寨沟湖泊水体硅藻细胞密度较重要的环境因子是海拔、水温和pH。硅藻细胞密度年变化幅度大的湖泊水体，年平均细胞密度大。因此，环境因素不太稳定的湖泊水体，更可能出现高的硅藻细胞密度。11 月份响应于水量剧烈的减少，细齿菱形藻大量出现在五彩池成为优势种群，造成水体硅藻细胞密度的大幅增加。 （4）九寨沟湖泊水体水质几乎达到国家地表水I 类标准，但是，硅藻商指数以及代表多样性的Cairns 指数计算的结果不能反映水质的情况，这是由于水质状况不是决定九寨沟湖泊水体中硅藻生存的种类和数量的主要因素。因此在用各种指数分析水质的时候，都应该先判断计算该指数的参数是否主要由水质状况决定，然后再综合理化性质等其他指标分析和比较。 （5）人类的活动对九寨沟湖泊水生态系统有一定的影响。一方面，在低海拔景点人类活动的干扰比海拔高处相对要大，干扰引起低海拔景点湖泊硅藻Cairns指数较高；另一方面，旺季的影响比淡季大，水体中出现了典型富营养种类。因此，应加强低海拔景点和旺季的管理，并限制淡季的人类活动以保证九寨沟生态系统的自我恢复。 Jiuzhaigou nature reserve is located in north Sichuan, at the south section of Minshan Mountain, having a warm temperate climate which belongs to West Sichuan plateau climate. It includes 118 mountain lakes, and 20 of them between 2000 and 3000 altitude degree constitute the core area of Jiuzhaigou. The water is Jiuzhaigou's soul, so it is the basis of sustainable tourism development of Jiuzhaigou to protect the water ecological environment. Research depends on Jiuzhaigou wetland biodiversity protection program in this paper, invested the diatom plants in 17 lakes at the core area from May 2007 to April 2008. The composition and the correlation of diatom density and the environment were studied, which could provide scientific and basic information for the protection of the ecological environment of Jiuzhaigou. The main conclusions were: 1 The diatom species were in abundance, investigation showed that there were 159 species belong to 10 families and 35 genera. Most diatoms were benthos, euplankton were less. Genera Fragilaria, Navicula, Cymbella, Gomphonema and Achnanthes had the most species, which always were the dominant genera. Only in The Long Lake genus Cyclotella possessed a predominant status. 2 The diatom cell density was not very high, always between 4×104 cell/L and 30×104 cell/L, highest in The Long Lake and lowest in The Colorful Lake. In one year's time, diatom in different lakes had different growth type. The maximum could be in summer, late autumn and late winter early spring. The cell density showed a positive correlation to altitude in the whole, but fluctuated in details along altitude because of comprehensive influence by many environmental factors. 3 Altitude, water temperature and pH were the more important factors to determine the cell density. There was a positive correlation between the range of cell density in one year and the average cell density. So high annual cell average density probably will appear in lakes which has an unstable environmental condition. The boom of Denticula elegans in The Jade-Colored Lake in November was corresponding to the large decrease in water quantity. 4 The water quality of Jiuzhaigou was near the National Surface Water Standard rank I, but the Diatom Quotient and the Cairns Index didn't reflect the water quality accordingly. It was because the water quality wasn't the most important factor here which determined the species number and species quantity, so the index based on these items would not reflect it. Therefore, it is recommended that, when we use indices to evaluate the water quality, we should know first whether the water quality is the main determinative factor inflects the items used to compute the indices, and then combined with other chemical indices to analyze and do comparison. 5 The tourists' activities had influenced the water ecosystem of Jiuzhaigou. On the one hand, disturbance was relatively high at the lower altitude, it resulted in higher Cairns index; on the other hand, influence in high season was more severe than in low season, some typical species indicating eutrophication were observed in the water. It is suggested that the management at lower altitude and in high season must be strengthen, and less people activity in low season is necessary to fulfill the recovery of the water ecosystem.

Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the "Grain for Green" policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of "Western Development", "Revitalization of Northeast", coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.