Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability

Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting.

The degree of predictability of earthquakes in several regions of China: statistical analysis of historical data

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic-rebound theory, is applied to the historical earthquake data from three strong earthquake-prone regions of China, including North China, Southwest China, and the Taiwan seismic regions. The results show that the seismicity along a plate boundary (Taiwan) is more active than in intraplate regions (North and Southwest China). The degree of predictability or regularity of seismic events in these seismic regions, based on both the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and fitted sensitivity parameters, follows the order Taiwan, Southwest China, and North China, which is further identified by numerical simulations. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical analysis of microscale gas flows and stock price changes

First, recent studies on the information preservation (IP) method, a particle approach for low-speed micro-scale gas flows, are reviewed. The IP method was validated for benchmark issues such as Couette, Poiseuille and Rayleigh flows, compared well with measured data for typical internal flows through micro-channels and external flows past micro flat plates, and combined with the Navier-Stokes equations to be a hybrid scheme for subsonic, rarefied gas flows. Second, the focus is moved to the microscopic characteristic of China stock market, particularly the price correlation between stock deals. A very interesting phenomenon was found that showed a reverse transition behaviour between two neighbouring price changes. This behaviour significantly differs from the transition rules for atomic and molecular energy levels, and it is very helpful to understand the essential difference between stock markets and nature.

Three-Dimensional Linear Instability Analysis of Thermocapillary Return Flow on a Porous Plane

A three-dimensional linear instability analysis of thermocapillary convection in a fluid-porous double layer system, imposed by a horizontal temperature gradient, is performed. The basic motion of fluid is the surface-tension-driven return flow, and the movement of fluid in the porous layer is governed by Darcy's law. The slippery effect of velocity at the fluid-porous interface has been taken into account, and the influence of this velocity slippage on the instability characteristic of the system is emphasized. The new behavior of the thermocapillary convection instability has been found and discussed through the figures of the spectrum.

Retrieval of Electron Return Time from High-order Harmonics Generated in a Mixture of He and Ne Gases

In terms of single-atom induced dipole moment by Lewenstein model, we present the macroscopic high-order harmonic generation from mixed He and Ne gases with different mixture ratios by solving three-dimensional Maxwell's equation of harmonic field. And then we show the validity of mixture formulation by Wagner et al. [Phys. Rev. A 76 (2007) 061403(R)] in macroscopic response level. Finally, using least squares fitting we retrieve the electron return time of short trajectory by formulation in Kanai et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 98 (2007) 153904] when the gas jet is put after the laser focus.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Equatorial pacific SSTA-related decadal variations of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate

Based on analysis of NCEP reanalysis data and SST indices of the recent 50 years, decadal changes of the potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies were investigated. Autocorrelation of Nino3 SST anomalies (SSTA) and correlation between atmospheric anomalies fields and Nino3 SSTA exhibit obvious variation in different decades, which indicates that Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies has significant decadal changes. Time around 1977 is not only a shift point of climate on the interdecadal time scale but also a catastrophe point of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate. As a whole, ENSO and the PNA pattern in boreal winter are more predictable in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s, while the Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of the Indian monsoon and the East Asian Monsoon is lower in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s.

Effect of parental stock size on F-1 genetic structure in the bay scallop, Argopecten irradians (Lamarck, 1819)

Three F-1 families of the bay scallop, Argopecten irradians, were produced from one, two and 10 individuals. The genetic changes in these populations, which suffered recent and different levels of bottleneck, were analysed using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) techniques. In the parental stock, a total of 330 bands were detected using seven AFLP primer pairs, and 70% of the loci were polymorphic. All F-1 groups had a significantly lower proportion of polymorphic loci when compared with the initial stock, and loss of the rare loci and reduction in heterozygosity both occurred. The progeny of the larger population (i.e., N=10) exhibited a lesser amount of genetic differentiation compared with the progeny from N=2, which showed lesser differentiation than progeny from N=1. The effective population sizes (N-e) in N=1, 2 and 10 were estimated as 1.50, 1.61 and 2.49. Based on regression analysis, we recommend that at least 340 individuals be used in hatchery populations to maintain genetic variation.