21 resultados para Stochastic SIS logistic model
em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal
Resumo:
Large-eddy simulation (LES) has emerged as a promising tool for simulating turbulent flows in general and, in recent years,has also been applied to the particle-laden turbulence with some success (Kassinos et al., 2007). The motion of inertial particles is much more complicated than fluid elements, and therefore, LES of turbulent flow laden with inertial particles encounters new challenges. In the conventional LES, only large-scale eddies are explicitly resolved and the effects of unresolved, small or subgrid scale (SGS) eddies on the large-scale eddies are modeled. The SGS turbulent flow field is not available. The effects of SGS turbulent velocity field on particle motion have been studied by Wang and Squires (1996), Armenio et al. (1999), Yamamoto et al. (2001), Shotorban and Mashayek (2006a,b), Fede and Simonin (2006), Berrouk et al. (2007), Bini and Jones (2008), and Pozorski and Apte (2009), amongst others. One contemporary method to include the effects of SGS eddies on inertial particle motions is to introduce a stochastic differential equation (SDE), that is, a Langevin stochastic equation to model the SGS fluid velocity seen by inertial particles (Fede et al., 2006; Shotorban and Mashayek, 2006a; Shotorban and Mashayek, 2006b; Berrouk et al., 2007; Bini and Jones, 2008; Pozorski and Apte, 2009).However, the accuracy of such a Langevin equation model depends primarily on the prescription of the SGS fluid velocity autocorrelation time seen by an inertial particle or the inertial particle–SGS eddy interaction timescale (denoted by $\delt T_{Lp}$ and a second model constant in the diffusion term which controls the intensity of the random force received by an inertial particle (denoted by C_0, see Eq. (7)). From the theoretical point of view, dTLp differs significantly from the Lagrangian fluid velocity correlation time (Reeks, 1977; Wang and Stock, 1993), and this carries the essential nonlinearity in the statistical modeling of particle motion. dTLp and C0 may depend on the filter width and particle Stokes number even for a given turbulent flow. In previous studies, dTLp is modeled either by the fluid SGS Lagrangian timescale (Fede et al., 2006; Shotorban and Mashayek, 2006b; Pozorski and Apte, 2009; Bini and Jones, 2008) or by a simple extension of the timescale obtained from the full flow field (Berrouk et al., 2007). In this work, we shall study the subtle and on-monotonic dependence of $\delt T_{Lp}$ on the filter width and particle Stokes number using a flow field obtained from Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). We then propose an empirical closure model for $\delta T_{Lp}$. Finally, the model is validated against LES of particle-laden turbulence in predicting single-particle statistics such as particle kinetic energy. As a first step, we consider the particle motion under the one-way coupling assumption in isotropic turbulent flow and neglect the gravitational settling effect. The one-way coupling assumption is only valid for low particle mass loading.
Resumo:
本文提出了一种新的、有效的机器人自适应控制方式,克服了其他方法由于模型不准或计算量大等所带来的一系列问题。本文首先将 Lagrange 运动方程转化为 ARMA 模型,并用虚拟噪声补偿模型误差(即由于线性化、解耦、观测不准和干扰等误差).然后利用改进的 Kalman 自适应滤波算法在线进行参数辨识和状态估计,将获得的参数用于机器人控制系统自适应控制器的设计.最后给出了该算法的仿真结果并对此进行了讨论。
Resumo:
本文提出了一种简化的多变量随机系统状态模型参数在线辨识方法。与最小二乘自适应递推算法比较,不仅需要辨识的参数减少,而且针对一类模型参数缓慢变化的系统,可以通过选择不同的遗忘因子序列来控制参数变化的幅度,解决了电力系统负荷预报中季节模型的老化问题。本方法基于带有随机噪声状态模型的典范型,大大节省了计算机的运算量和存贮容量,适于微处理机的在线应用。
Resumo:
本文将随机系统状态模型辨识技术用于电力系统负荷预报。首先根据负荷的一系列历史数据建立负荷的状态空间模型,然后用滤波算法进行次日负荷预报,最后用电网实际数据在 PDP-11/23计算机上进行预报计算,得到比较满意的结果。
Resumo:
Understanding relationship between environmental protection and economic development is crucial to form practical environmental policy. At micro level, implementation of environmental regulations often causes production mills adjustment of technology which might leads to change of productive efficiency and cost, which, in turn, determine effort level of mills and even local government in pollution control. Using a stochastic frontier production model and a set of survey data on 126 paper mills from six provinces of China, we measure the technical efficiency changes and analyze the determinants of efficiency. in particular, we examine impact of environmental policy on paper mills' efficiency, using an indicator of environmental policy-the levy ratio of COD. We also estimate a simultaneous-equation model in which the levy rate and emission are jointly determined. The results indicate that there have been efficiency improvements during 1999-2003, when enforcement of environmental regulations have been tightened. The impacts, nevertheless, are different for different types of mills. We also find the levy ratio, which is influenced by both the local social and economic conditions and the characters of paper mills, such as scale, has strong impact on the abatement of the pollutant-COD. Additionally, paper mills' technical efficiency has positive effect on the reduction of the emission intensity of the pollutant-COD. These results lead a set of implications pertinent to policy improvement.
Resumo:
This paper first presents a stochastic structural model to describe the random geometrical features of rock and soil aggregates. The stochastic structural model uses mixture ratio, rock size and rock shape to construct the microstructures of aggregates,and introduces two types of structural elements (block element and jointed element) and three types of material elements (rock element, soil element, and weaker jointed element)for this microstructure. Then, continuum-based discrete element method is used to study the deformation and failure mechanism of rock and soil aggregate through a series of loading tests. It is found that the stress-strain curve of rock and soil aggregates is nonlinear, and the failure is usually initialized from weaker jointed elements. Finally, some factors such as mixture ratio, rock size and rock shape are studied in detail. The numerical results are in good agreement with in situ test. Therefore, current model is effective for simulating the mechanical behaviors of rock and soil aggregates.
Resumo:
Motivated by the observation of the rate effect on material failure, a model of nonlinear and nonlocal evolution is developed, that includes both stochastic and dynamic effects. In phase space a transitional region prevails, which distinguishes the failure behavior from a globally stable one to that of catastrophic. Several probability functions are found to characterize the distinctive features of evolution due to different degrees of nucleation, growth and coalescence rates. The results may provide a better understanding of material failure.
Resumo:
Banded spherulite patterns are simulated in two dimensions by means of a coupled logistic map lattice model. Both target pattern and spiral pattern which have been proved to be existent experimentally in banded spherulite are obtained by choosing suitable parameters in the model. The simulation results also indicate that the band spacing is decreased with the increase of parameter mu in the logistic map and increased with the increase of the coupling parameter epsilon, which is quite similar to the results in some experiments. Moreover, the relationship between the parameters and the corresponding patterns is obtained, and the target patterns and spiral patterns are distinguished for a given group of initial values, which may guide the study of banded spherulite.
Resumo:
Banded spherulite patterns are simulated in three dimensions by means of a Coupled Logistic map lattice model. The patterns obtained by numerical calculation are consistent with those in experiments. The simulation results also indicate that the hand spacing is decreased with the increase of parameter mu in the Logistic map and increased with the increase of the coupling parameter e for cube lattices, and increased with the increase of the thickness of the lattice for polymer film, which is quite similar to the results in some experiments. Spiral pattern in three dimensions is also shown in this paper, which helps us understand the form of banded spherulite in polymers.
Resumo:
In order to study the failure of disordered materials, the ensemble evolution of a nonlinear chain model was examined by using a stochastic slice sampling method. The following results were obtained. (1) Sample-specific behavior, i.e. evolutions are different from sample to sample in some cases under the same macroscopic conditions, is observed for various load-sharing rules except in the globally mean field theory. The evolution according to the cluster load-sharing rule, which reflects the interaction between broken clusters, cannot be predicted by a simple criterion from the initial damage pattern and even then is most complicated. (2) A binary failure probability, its transitional region, where globally stable (GS) modes and evolution-induced catastrophic (EIC) modes coexist, and the corresponding scaling laws are fundamental to the failure. There is a sensitive zone in the vicinity of the boundary between the GS and EIC regions in phase space, where a slight stochastic increment in damage can trigger a radical transition from GS to EIC. (3) The distribution of strength is obtained from the binary failure probability. This, like sample-specificity, originates from a trans-scale sensitivity linking meso-scopic and macroscopic phenomena. (4) Strong fluctuations in stress distribution different from that of GS modes may be assumed as a precursor of evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC).
Resumo:
A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is presented. In the model, the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables, and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshore structural steel under constant amplitude loading. Furthermore, by using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted. The tests are conducted to verify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.
Resumo:
A brief review is presented of statistical approaches on microdamage evolution. An experimental study of statistical microdamage evolution in two ductile materials under dynamic loading is carried out. The observation indicates that there are large differences in size and distribution of microvoids between these two materials. With this phenomenon in mind, kinetic equations governing the nucleation and growth of microvoids in nonlinear rate-dependent materials are combined with the balance law of void number to establish statistical differential equations that describe the evolution of microvoids' number density. The theoretical solution provides a reasonable explanation of the experimentally observed phenomenon. The effects of stochastic fluctuation which is influenced by the inhomogeneous microscopic structure of materials are subsequently examined (i.e. stochastic growth model). Based on the stochastic differential equation, a Fokker-Planck equation which governs the evolution of the transition probability is derived. The analytical solution for the transition probability is then obtained and the effects of stochastic fluctuation is discussed. The statistical and stochastic analyses may provide effective approaches to reveal the physics of damage evolution and dynamic failure process in ductile materials.
Resumo:
The effects of stochastic extension on the statistical evolution of the ideal microcrack system are discussed. First, a general theoretical formulation and an expression for the transition probability of extension process are presented, then the features of evolution in stochastic model are demonstrated by several numerical results and compared with that in deterministic model.
Resumo:
Many biological systems can switch between two distinct states. Once switched, the system remains stable for a period of time and may switch back to its original state. A gene network with bistability is usually required for the switching and stochastic effect in the gene expression may induce such switching. A typical bistable system allows one-directional switching, in which the switch from the low state to the high state or from the high state to the low state occurs under different conditions. It is usually difficult to enable bi-directional switching such that the two switches can occur under the same condition. Here, we present a model consisting of standard positive feedback loops and an extra negative feedback loop with a time delay to study its capability to produce bi-directional switching induced by noise. We find that the time delay in the negative feedback is critical for robust bi-directional switching and the length of delay affects its switching frequency.
Resumo:
A dynamic model for the ice-induced vibration (IIV) of structures is developed in the present study. Ice properties have been taken into account, such as the discrete failure, the dependence of the crushing strength on the ice velocity, and the randomness of ice failure. The most important prediction of the model is to capture the resonant frequency lock-in, which is analog to that in the vortex-induced vibration. Based on the model, the mechanism of resonant IIV is discussed. It is found that the dependence of the ice crushing strength on the ice velocity plays an important role in the resonant frequency lock-in of IIV. In addition, an intermittent stochastic resonant vibration is simulated from the model. These predictions are supported by the laboratory and field observations reported. The present model is more productive than the previous models of IIV.