Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Linear spatio-temporal instability analysis of ice growth under a falling water film

A linear spatio-temporal stability analysis is conducted for the ice growth under a falling water film along an inclined ice plane. The full system of linear stability equations is solved by using the Chebyshev collocation method. By plotting the boundary curve between the linear absolute and convective instabilities (AI/CI) of the ice mode in the parameter plane of the Reynolds number and incline angle, it is found that the linear absolute instability exists and occurs above a minimum Reynolds number and below a maximum inclined angle. Furthermore, by plotting the critical Reynolds number curves with respect to the inclined angle for the downstream and upstream branches, the convectively unstable region is determined and divided into three parts, one of which has both downstream and upstream convectively unstable wavepackets and the other two have only downstream or upstream convectively unstable wavepacket. Finally, the effect of the Stefan number and the thickness of the ice layer on the AI/CI boundary curve is investigated.

Spatio-temporal changes in annual accumulated temperature in China and the effects on cropping systems, 1980s to 2000

Change in thermal conditions can substantially affect crop growth, cropping systems, agricultural production and land use. In the present study, we used annual accumulated temperatures > 10 degrees C (AAT10) as an indicator to investigate the spatio-temporal changes in thermal conditions across China from the late 1980s to 2000, with a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 km. We also investigated the effects of the spatio-temporal changes on cultivated land use and cropping systems. We found that AAT10 has increased on a national scale since the late 1980s, Particularly, 3.16 x 10(5) km(2) of land moved from the spring wheat zone (AAT10: 1600 to 3400 degrees C) to the winter wheat zone (AAT10: 3400 to 4500 degrees C). Changes in thermal conditions had large influences on cultivated land area and cropping systems. The areas of cultivated land have increased in regions with increasing AAT10, and the cropping rotation index has increased since the late 1980s. Single cropping was replaced by 3 crops in 2 years in many regions, and areas of winter wheat cultivation were shifted northward in some areas, such as in the eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and in western Liaoning and Jilin Provinces.

Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamic pattern and driving forces of urban land in China in 1990s using TM images and GIS

China has witnessed fast urban growth in the recent decade. This study analyzes spatio-temporal characteristics of urban expansion in China using satellite images and regionalization methods. Landsat TM images at three time periods, 1990/1991, 1995/1996, and 1999/2000, are interpreted to get 1:100000 vector land use datasets. The study calculates the urban land percentage and urban land expansion index of every 1 km(2) cell throughout China. The study divides China into 27 urban regions to conceive dynamic patterns of urban land changes. Urban development was achieving momentum in the western region, expanding more noticeably than in the previous five years, and seeing an increased growth percentage. Land use dynamic changes reflect the strong impacts of economic growth environments and macro-urban development policies. The paper helps to distinguish the influences of newly market-oriented forces from traditional administrative controls on China's urban expansion. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal patterns and driving forces of urban land expansion in china during the economic reform era

Along with its economic reform, China has experienced a rapid urbanization. This study mapped urban land expansion in China using high-resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper data of 1989/1990, 1995/1996 and 1999/2000 and analyzed its expansion modes and the driving forces underlying this process during 1990-2000. Our results show that China's urban land increased by 817 thousand hectares, of which 80.8% occurred during 1990-1995 and 19.2% during 1995-2000. It was also found that China's urban expansion had high spatial and temporal differences, such as four expansion modes, concentric, leapfrog, linear and multi-nuclei, and their combinations coexisted and expanded urban land area in the second 5 y was much less than that of the first 5 y. Case studies of the 13 mega cities showed that urban expansion had been largely driven by demographic change, economic growth, and changes in land use policies and regulations.

The degree of predictability of earthquakes in several regions of China: statistical analysis of historical data

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic-rebound theory, is applied to the historical earthquake data from three strong earthquake-prone regions of China, including North China, Southwest China, and the Taiwan seismic regions. The results show that the seismicity along a plate boundary (Taiwan) is more active than in intraplate regions (North and Southwest China). The degree of predictability or regularity of seismic events in these seismic regions, based on both the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and fitted sensitivity parameters, follows the order Taiwan, Southwest China, and North China, which is further identified by numerical simulations. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

移动对象数据库模型、查询语言及实时交通流分析

提出一种移动对象数据库模型——Dynamic Transportation Network Based Moving Objects Database(简称DTNMOD),并给出了DTNMOD中基于移动对象时空轨迹的网络实时动态交通流分析方法.在DTNMOD中,交通网络被表示成动态的时空网络,可以描述交通状态、拓扑结构以及交通参数随时间的变化过程;网络受限的移动对象则用网络移动点表示.DTNMOD模型包含了完整的数据类型和查询操作的定义,因此可以在任何可扩充数据库(如PostgreSQL或SECONDO)中实现,从而得到完整的数据库模型和查询语言.为了对相关模型的性能进行比较与分析,基于PostgreSQL实现了一个原型系统并进行了一系列的实验.实验结果表明,DTNMOD提供了良好的区域查询及连接查询性能.

Diagnostic experiments for transport mechanisms of suspended sediment discharged from the Yellow River in the Bohai Sea

Five diagnostic experiments with a 3D baroclinic hydrodynamic and sediment transport model ECOMSED in couple with the third generation wave model SWAN and the Grant-Madsen bottom boundary layer model driven by the monthly sediment load of the Yellow River, were conducted to separately diagnose effects of different hydrodynamic factors on transport of suspended sediment discharged from the Yellow River in the Bohai Sea. Both transport and spatio-temporal distribution of suspended sediment concentration in the Bohai Sea were numerially simulated. It could be concluded that suspended sediment discharged from the Yellow River cannot be delivered in long distance under the condition of tidal current. Almost all of sediments from the Yellow River are deposited outside the delta under the condition of wind-driven current, and only very small of them are transported faraway. On the basis of wind forcing, sediments from the Yellow River are mainly transported north-northwestward, and others which are first delivered to the Laizhou Bay are continuously moved northward. An obvious 3D structure characteristic of sediment transport is produced in the wind-driven and tide-induced residual circulation condition. Transport patterns at all layers are generally consistent with circulation structure, but there is apparent deviation between the depth-averaged sediment flux and the circulation structure. The phase of temporal variation of sediment concentration is consistent with that of the bottom shear stress, both of which are proved to have a ten-day cycle in wave and current condition.

大别山岩石圈有效弹性厚度初步研究

As powerful tools to study the lithosphere dynamics, the effective elastic thickness (Te) as well as the envelope of yielding stress of lithosphere have been attracted great attention of geoscientists in the past thirty years. The oceanic lithosphere, contrary to the continental lithosphere, has more fruits for its simple structures and evolution process. In continent, the lithosphere commonly is complex and variable in the rheological, thermal structures, and has a complicated history. Therefore, the application of the effective elastic thickness in continent is still a subject to learn in a long time. Te, with the definition of the thickness of an elastic plate in theory flexured by the equal benging of the real stress in the lithosphere plate (Turcotte, 1982), marks the depth of transition between elastic and fluid behaviors of rocks subjected to stress exceeding 100 MPa over the geological timescales (McNutt, 1990). There are three methods often adapted: admittance or isostatic response function, coherence and forwarding. In principle, the models of Te consist of thermal-rheological, non-linear Maxwell, non-linear work hardening and rheological layered models. There is a tentative knowledge of Te that it is affected by the following factors: crustal thickness, crust-mantle decoupling, plate bending, boundary conditions of plate (end forces and bending moments), stress state, sedimentary layer, faulting effect, variation in the mountain belts' strike, foreland basin, inheritance of tectonic evolution, convection of mantle, seismic depth and lithosphere strength. In this thesis, the author introduces the geological sketch of the Dabie collisional orogenic belt and the Hefei Basin. The Dabie Mts. is famous for the ultra-high pressure metamorphism. The crustal materials subducted down to the depth of at least 100 km and exhumed. So that the front subjects arise such as the deeply subduction of continent, and the post-collisional crust-mantle interaction. In a geological journey at June of 1999, the author found the rarely variolitic basaltic andesite in the Dabie Mts. It occurs in Susong Group, near Zhifenghe Countryside, Susong County, Anhui Province. It is just to the south of the boundary between the high-grade Susong melange and the ultra-high grade South Dabie melange. It has a noticeable knobby or pitted appearance in the surface. The size of the varioles is about 1-4 mm. In hand-specimen and under microscope, there are distinct contacts between the varioles and the matrice. The mineralogy of the varioles is primarily radiate plagioclase, with little pyroxene, hornblende and quartz. The pyroxene, hornblende and quartz are in the interstices between plagioclase. The matrix is consisted of glass, and micro-crystals of chlorite, epidote and zoisite. It is clearly subjected and extensive alteration. The andesite has an uncommon chemical composition. The SiO_2 content is about 56.8%, TiO_2 = 0.9%, MgO = 6.4%, (Fe_2O_3)_(Total) = 6.7% ～ 7.6%, 100 Mg/(Mg+Fe) = 64.1 ～ 66.2. Mg# is significantly high. The andesite has higher abundances of large-lithophile trace elements (e.g. K, Ba, Sr, LREE), e.g. La/Nd = 5.56-6.07, low abundances of high-strength-field elements (HFSE, e.g. Ta, Nb, P, Ti), particularly Ta and Nb strongly depleted. These are consistent with the characteristics of subducted-related magmas (Pearcce, 1982; Sun and McDonaugh, 1989). In the spider diagram of trace elements, from Ce to right hand, the abundances of elements decrease quickly, showing a characteristic of the continental margins (Pearce, 1982). There has a strongly enrichment of light-rare-earth elements, with a significant diffraction of REEs (the mean value of (La/Yb)_N is 32.84). No Eu anomaly, but there are anomaly high (La/Yb)_N = 28.63-36.74, (La/Y)_N = 70.33 - 82.84. The elements Y and Yb depleted greatly, Y < 20 ppm, Y_N = 2.74-2.84, Yb_N = 2.18 - 2.35. From the La-(La/Sm) diagram, the andesite is derived from partial melting. But the epsilone value of Nd is -18.7 ～ -19.2, so that the material source may be the mantle materials affected by the crustal materials. The Nd model age is 1.9 Ga indicating that the basaltic andesite was resulted from the post-collisional crust-mantle interaction between the subducted Yangze carton and the mantle of Sino-Korea carton. To obtain the Te of the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts. and the Hefei Basin, the author applies the coherence method in this thesis. The author makes two topography-gravity profiles (profiles 7~(th) and 9~(th)) across the Dabie Mts. and the Hefei Basin, and calculates the auto-coherence, across coherence, power spectrum, across power spectrum of the topography and gravity of the two profiles. From the relationships between the coherence and the wave-number of profiles. From the relationships between the coherence and the wave-number of profiles 7~(th) and 9~(th), it is obtained that the characteristic wavelengths respectively are 157 km and 126 km. Consequently the values of effective elastic thickness are 6.5 km and 4.8 km, respectively. However, the Te values merely are the minimum value of the lithosphere because the coherencemethod in a relative small region will generate a systemic underestimation. Why there is a so low Te value? In order to check the strength of the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts., the authore tries to outline the yielding-stress envelope of the lithosphere. It is suggested that the elastic layers in the crust and upper mantle are 18 km and 35 km, respectively. Since there exist a low viscosity layer about 3-5 km thickness, so it is reasonable that the decoupling between the crust and mantle occurred. So the effective thickness of the lithosphere can be estimated from the two elastic layers. Te is about 34 km. This is the maximum strength of the lithosphere. We can make an approximately estimation about the strength of the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts.: Te is about 20-30 km. The author believes that the following factors should be responsible for the low Te value: (1) the Dabie Mts. has elevated strongly since K_3-J_1. The north part of the Dabie Mts. elevates faster than the south part today; (2) there occur large active striking faults in this area. And in the east, the huge Tan-Lu striking fault anyway tends to decrease the lithosphere strength; (3) the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts. is heter-homogeneous in spatio-temporal; (4) the study area just locates in the adjacent region between the eastern China where the lithosphere thickness is significantly reduced and the normal western China. These factors will decrease the lithosphere strength.

Thermocapillary Flows In Liquid Bridges Of Molten Tin With Small Aspect Ratios

Numerical simulations were conducted to study thermocapillary flows in short half-zone liquid bridges of molten tin with Prandtl number Pr = 0.009, under ramped temperature difference. The spatio-temporal structures in the thermocapillary flows in short half-zone liquid bridges with aspect ratios As = 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0 were investigated. The first critical Marangoni numbers were compared with those predicted by linear stability analyses (LSA). The second critical Marangoni numbers for As = 0.6 and 0.8 were found to be larger than that for As = 1.0. The time evolutions of the thermocapillary flows exhibited unusual features such as a change in the azimuthal wave number during the three-dimensional stationary (non-oscillating) flow regime, a change in the oscillation mode during the three-dimensional oscillatory flow regime, and the decreasing and then increasing of amplitudes in a single oscillation mode. The effects of the ramping rate of the temperature difference on the flow modes and critical conditions were studied as well. In this paper, the experimental observability of the critical conditions was also discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Proper orthogonal decomposition of oscillatory Marangoni flow in half-zone liquid bridges of low-Pr fluids

Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) using method of snapshots was performed on three different types of oscillatory Marangoni flows in half-zone liquid bridges of low-Pr fluid (Pr = 0.01). For each oscillation type, a series of characteristic modes (eigenfunctions) have been extracted from the velocity and temperature disturbances, and the POD provided spatial structures of the eigenfunctions, their oscillation frequencies, amplitudes, and phase shifts between them. The present analyses revealed the common features of the characteristic modes for different oscillation modes: four major velocity eigenfunctions captured more than 99% of the velocity fluctuation energy form two pairs, one of which is the most energetic. Different from the velocity disturbance, one of the major temperature eigenfunctions makes the dominant contribution to the temperature fluctuation energy. On the other hand, within the most energetic velocity eigenfuction pair, the two eigenfunctions have similar spatial structures and were tightly coupled to oscillate with the same frequency, and it was determined that the spatial structures and phase shifts of the eigenfunctions produced the different oscillatory disturbances. The interaction of other major modes only enriches the secondary spatio-temporal structures of the oscillatory disturbances. Moreover, the present analyses imply that the oscillatory disturbance, which is hydrodynamic in nature, primarily originates from the interior of the liquid bridge. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conical emission of Ti : sapphire femtosecond laser pulses propagating in water

Conical emission is investigated for Ti:sapphire femtosecond laser pulses propagating in water. The colored rings can be observed in the forward direction due to the constructive and destructive interference of transverse wavevector, which are induced by the spatio-temporal gradient of the free-electron density. With increasing input laser energy, due to filamentation and pulse splitting induced by the plasma created by multiphoton excitation of electrons from the valence band to the conduction band, the on-axis spectrum of the conical emission is widely broadened and strongly modulated with respect to input laser spectrum, and finally remains fairly constant at higher laser energy due to intensity clamping in the filaments.

内蒙古锡林河流域草原群落土壤呼吸的时空变异及其影响因子研究

　　土壤呼吸是全球碳循环中的一个重要环节，其对全球碳平衡的影响是近年来人们关注的焦点之一。探讨碳素的失汇(missing sink)问题，对陆地生态系统土壤呼吸的研究是必不可少的。环境因子与土壤呼吸之间的关系可以用于将土壤呼吸从“chamber”水平的测量放大到整个生态系统或更大尺度。而温度、水分和植被状况都是对土壤呼吸有重要影响的因子，随着全球气候的变化，这些因子也会发生相应的改变，在这种情况下，它们极有可能与土壤CO2排放之间形成正反馈。温带草原是主要的陆地生态系统类型之一，目前非常缺乏有关土壤呼吸的研究资料。因此，在2001年生长季，我们在内蒙古锡林河流域南部集水区设定了一条东西长约160km、南北宽约30km的样带，从中选择了11个不同的植物群落，采用碱液吸收法周期性地对这些群落的土壤呼吸速率进行同步测定，并对土壤呼吸的时空动态及其与温度、土壤水分和植被状况之间的关系进行了研究。现将主要研究结果概述如下： 　　①锡林河流域南部集水区的土壤呼吸表现出明显的季节变化和空间变异。温度是影响土壤呼吸季节变化的主要因子之一，指数模型能够较好地揭示各群落土壤呼吸对温度变化的响应，但低温时模型的拟合效果更好。各群落土壤呼吸的季节动态与温度变化不完全同步，表明温度并不是影响土壤呼吸的唯一因子 。 　　②土壤呼吸的温度敏感性在各群落之间存在着一定的差异。春小麦群落的Q10值高于草原群落，说明不同的土地利用方式会影响到土壤呼吸对温度变化的敏感程度。水分对土壤呼吸的温度敏感性有重要影响，秩相关分析的结果表明，土壤水分与Q10值之间存在着显著的正相关关系。此外，依据不同土壤层次的温度得出的Q10值各不相同，基于变化幅度大的浅层土壤温度和气温得出的Q10值较小，而根据变化幅度小的深层土壤温度得出的Q10值较大。 　　③水分对各群落的土壤呼吸也有较大影响，但其影响程度有一定的季节差异，生长旺季水分对土壤呼吸的影响显著高于其它季节。从各群落的具体情况来看，水分对土壤呼吸的影响明显受制于群落的水分供应状况。水分供应状况比较好的和水分变化幅度小的群落中，土壤呼吸与水分之间没有显著的函数关系，而水分相对欠缺的群落则存有显著的线性关系。消除温度的影响后，这种线性关系显著增强。土壤水分含量较低的芨芨草群落中，土壤呼吸与表层水分之间的关系也不明显，这与芨芨草根系分布较深，能够利用土壤中较深层次的水分有关。 　　④土壤呼吸季节变化与植被之间的关系与各群落内水分状况以及植被对水分的利用机制有关。所有群落土壤呼吸速率随着绿色活体生物量的增长有上升趋势，且在水分供应充足的群落和植被较为耐旱或能够利用深层土壤水的群落中，这二者之间呈显著或极显著的指数关系，其它群落中相关关系不够显著。由于植被立枯量大小反映了水热的综合状况，所以群落的土壤呼吸速率随立枯量的增长呈下降趋势，二者之间的关系也可以用指数方程来表示。 　　⑤土壤呼吸在锡林河流域南部的空间变异主要受水分和植被状况的影响。总体来看，土壤水分含量高、地上生物量（包括绿色活体生物量）大或地上净第一性生产力高的草地群落，其土壤呼吸速率也较高。基础呼吸速率对于改进土壤呼吸模型在时间和空间上的预测精度有重要意义。我们的研究结果表明，在平均温度低、水分状况好、地上和地下生物量大、地上净第一性生产力高的地方，基础土壤呼吸速率也相应较高。