Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Linear spatio-temporal instability analysis of ice growth under a falling water film

A linear spatio-temporal stability analysis is conducted for the ice growth under a falling water film along an inclined ice plane. The full system of linear stability equations is solved by using the Chebyshev collocation method. By plotting the boundary curve between the linear absolute and convective instabilities (AI/CI) of the ice mode in the parameter plane of the Reynolds number and incline angle, it is found that the linear absolute instability exists and occurs above a minimum Reynolds number and below a maximum inclined angle. Furthermore, by plotting the critical Reynolds number curves with respect to the inclined angle for the downstream and upstream branches, the convectively unstable region is determined and divided into three parts, one of which has both downstream and upstream convectively unstable wavepackets and the other two have only downstream or upstream convectively unstable wavepacket. Finally, the effect of the Stefan number and the thickness of the ice layer on the AI/CI boundary curve is investigated.

Spatio-temporal changes in annual accumulated temperature in China and the effects on cropping systems, 1980s to 2000

Change in thermal conditions can substantially affect crop growth, cropping systems, agricultural production and land use. In the present study, we used annual accumulated temperatures > 10 degrees C (AAT10) as an indicator to investigate the spatio-temporal changes in thermal conditions across China from the late 1980s to 2000, with a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 km. We also investigated the effects of the spatio-temporal changes on cultivated land use and cropping systems. We found that AAT10 has increased on a national scale since the late 1980s, Particularly, 3.16 x 10(5) km(2) of land moved from the spring wheat zone (AAT10: 1600 to 3400 degrees C) to the winter wheat zone (AAT10: 3400 to 4500 degrees C). Changes in thermal conditions had large influences on cultivated land area and cropping systems. The areas of cultivated land have increased in regions with increasing AAT10, and the cropping rotation index has increased since the late 1980s. Single cropping was replaced by 3 crops in 2 years in many regions, and areas of winter wheat cultivation were shifted northward in some areas, such as in the eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and in western Liaoning and Jilin Provinces.

Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamic pattern and driving forces of urban land in China in 1990s using TM images and GIS

China has witnessed fast urban growth in the recent decade. This study analyzes spatio-temporal characteristics of urban expansion in China using satellite images and regionalization methods. Landsat TM images at three time periods, 1990/1991, 1995/1996, and 1999/2000, are interpreted to get 1:100000 vector land use datasets. The study calculates the urban land percentage and urban land expansion index of every 1 km(2) cell throughout China. The study divides China into 27 urban regions to conceive dynamic patterns of urban land changes. Urban development was achieving momentum in the western region, expanding more noticeably than in the previous five years, and seeing an increased growth percentage. Land use dynamic changes reflect the strong impacts of economic growth environments and macro-urban development policies. The paper helps to distinguish the influences of newly market-oriented forces from traditional administrative controls on China's urban expansion. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal patterns and driving forces of urban land expansion in china during the economic reform era

Along with its economic reform, China has experienced a rapid urbanization. This study mapped urban land expansion in China using high-resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper data of 1989/1990, 1995/1996 and 1999/2000 and analyzed its expansion modes and the driving forces underlying this process during 1990-2000. Our results show that China's urban land increased by 817 thousand hectares, of which 80.8% occurred during 1990-1995 and 19.2% during 1995-2000. It was also found that China's urban expansion had high spatial and temporal differences, such as four expansion modes, concentric, leapfrog, linear and multi-nuclei, and their combinations coexisted and expanded urban land area in the second 5 y was much less than that of the first 5 y. Case studies of the 13 mega cities showed that urban expansion had been largely driven by demographic change, economic growth, and changes in land use policies and regulations.

中部天山林线动态对气候变化的响应研究

中部天山高山林线构成一个对气候变化及其变化程度的理想而敏感的代表性指标，低温、干旱和水分胁迫等都可能限制森林的分布和影响林线的形成。本文通过沿海拔梯度定位调查高山林线样地天山云杉种群的更新情况，利用树木年轮气候学和生态学方法，研究了林线天山云杉种群的时间动态和空间动态及其与气候变化的关系，并取得了一些初步结果。 利用不同年龄的树木年轮序列建立了三个不同年龄的树木年轮宽度年表，幼龄(<100年)，中龄(100-200年)和老龄(>200年) 树木都与当年生长季前期1-3月份的温度显著正相关，和当年1月份和7月份的降水显著正相关。但不同年龄的天山云杉对气候变化的响应结果不同，幼龄(<100年)天山云杉对气候变化的响应程度随年龄的增加而增加，但变化趋势不明显；中龄树木(100-200年)对气候变化的响应随年龄的增加而降低；老龄(>200年)天山云杉受年龄的影响不大。 有关古气候变化的相关研究中，都是尽可能采取年代长的树木年轮样本建立年代较长的年表，并利用最近几十年的气候资料与最近几十年的树木生长的相关关系来重建古气候变化情况。本文的研究结果表明，将不同年龄天山云杉的树木年轮宽度序列放在一起所建成的多年龄复合年表包含有更多的气候信息，显示出当地天山云杉种群对气候变化反应的共性。研究结果表明在建树木年轮的宽度年表时，选用一定数量的不同年龄的树木年轮宽度序列可增强年表对气候变化的响应关系。 利用不同年龄的天山云杉样本建成的复合年龄的树木年轮宽度年表对冬季的最低温度的响应关系，重建了中部天山高山林线地区过去300年来的冬季最低温度。重建的冬季最低温度的有几个明显的暖期和冷期，20世纪50年代以来冬季低温则表现出显著增高的变化趋势。 中部天山高山林线天山云杉种群的胸径和年龄结构以都呈倒-J型分布，说明天山云杉种群更新良好，处于稳定发展时期。随着全球变暖和温度的升高，20世纪以来中部天山高山林线天山云杉的种群更新数量较多，天山云杉的密度有所增加，但林线位置并没有显著的上升，不同年代内更新的树木所到达的海拔高度也不一样。中部天山高山林线天山云杉种群发生的时间动态主要和冬季最低温度正相关，而不同时间内更新的天山云杉种群空间动态形成原因比较复杂，主要和冬季低温负相关。

内蒙古锡林河流域草原植物和群落热值的时空变异研究

第一部分：内蒙古锡林河流域草原植物种群和群落热值的时空变异研究 热值的研究是评价生态系统能量固定、传输和转化的基础，也是评价植物光合作用效率和植物营养值的有用参数。同种植物热值会随着植物部位、光照、养分条件、季节、土壤类型和气候条件的不同而发生变化。不同的种类和类群之间热值也存在差异。本项研究以内蒙古锡林河流域中段草原植物群落为对象，研究了植物种群和群落热值的时空变异规律。 对内蒙古羊草草原群落不同植物种群热值的时问动态研究结果表明，42种植物地上部分的热值在13.16土1.14 kJ.g-l和18.14土0.53 kJ.g-1之间变动，所有物种的平均热值为16.90土0,84 kJ.g-1，种间变异系数4.9%。小叶锦鸡儿(Caraganamicrophylla)具有最高的热值。禾草的平均热值高于杂草。根据生活型和生长型，草本物种被进一步分组，热值从高到低的排列顺序为：高禾草>豆科植物>矮禾草>其余杂草>半灌木>一二年生植物。 主要植物种群地下部分热值的分布范围为15.05-16.41 kJ.g-1。其中根茎型草地下部分热值较高。不同种类植物地下部分热值差异并不与地上部分一致。根茎型禾草地上、地下部分热值差异较小，而须根型植物差异较大。不同种群的植物地上部分热值随植物物候期的不同而波动，其变化规律是与植物种群本身的生物学特性相联系的。不同植物种群热值的年际波动规律有所不同，羊草(Leymuschinensis)、大针茅(Stipa grandis)和洽草(Koeloria cristata)的年际热值波动相关显著，但与生长季降水量和生长季累积日照时数之间无明显相关性。在某种程度上，植物热值的种内变化反映了植物生长状况的差异。 42种植物的热值和它们在群落中的相对生物量存在显著正相关关系。表现为优势种(17.74 kJ.g-1)>伴生种(17.24 kJ．g-l)>偶见种(16.65 kJ.g-1)。高热值的植物更具竞争力，在群落中通常占据优势地位，而低热值的植物竞争力通常较弱，构成草原群落的伴生种或偶见种。 以内蒙古锡林河流域3个草原群落类型（羊草典型草原，大针茅典型草原，羊草草甸草原）的放牧退化梯度系列（包括未退化，轻度退化，中度退化和重度退化4个强度）为研究对象，对主要植物种群和群落热值随草原类型和退化梯度的空间变异规律及热值与其他群落和土壤性质的相关性进行了研究。 结果表明，研究区出现的60个植物种平均热值为17.25土0.92 kJ.g-1，变异系数5.4%．热值大于18.00 kJ.g-1的高能植物包括3种优势高禾草(羊草、大针茅和羽茅(A. sibiricum))和一些有毒植物，热值小于17.00 kJ.g-1的低能值植物包括多数一年生杂草;热值在17.00-18.00 kJ.g-1之间的中能值植物包括大多数多年生杂草和矮禾草。 按照生活型分类，灌木的热值最高，多年生禾草显著高于一二年生植物，半灌木和多年生杂草介于二者之间。按照水分生态类型分类，旱生植物、中旱生、旱中生和中生植物之间在热值上没有明显差异。不同科之间热值存在显著差异，禾本科、豆科、菊科植物热值较高，藜科植物平均热值最低。 二因素方差分析结果表明，主要优势物种热值在不同草原类型之间存在显著差异，表现为羊草草甸草原>羊草典型草原>大针茅典型草原。对于大多数优势禾草，热值没有随退化梯度发生明显变化，洽草(K. cristata)、冰草(A．ctistatum)和所有优势杂草随退化程度的增强热值趋于下降。对于大多数优势物种，热值随不同草原类型的空间变异大于放牧退化所导致的空间变异。 不同草原类型的群落热值为羊草草甸草原>羊草典型草原>大针茅典型草原，群落平均热值表现出随退化强度的增加而下降的趋势，这主要归因于沿退化梯度不同物种构成比例的变化，即随退化程度的加剧，高能值植物在群落中的比例下降。其次是特定物种热值随退化梯度的变化。在同一草原区，放牧对群落热值的影响大于立地条件之间的差异。 群落和主要物种热值均表现出与某些群落特征和土壤性质的相关性。 关键词：内蒙古，锡林河流域，羊草草原;物种和群落热值，时空变异，退化梯度，草原类型，土壤性质 第二部分内蒙古羊草草原17年刈割演替过程中功能群组成动态及其对群落净初级生产力稳定性的影响 基于17年的野外实验数据，研究了内蒙古羊草草原群落刈割演替过程中的功能群组成动态，探索功能群组成变化与群落净初级生产力(ANPP)之间的关系，分析结构参数怎样影响功能参数。结果显示：在17年的割草演替过程中，群落的结构与功能均发生了变化。随着羊草群落刈割演替的进行，群落的功能群组成发生了显著变化，根茎禾草在群落中的优势地位相继被一二年生植物，高丛生禾草，矮丛生禾草所取代。到17年末，群落变成根茎禾草，矮丛生禾草，高丛生禾草共同建群的群落。在对照群落中ANPP与年降水量显著相关，但在刈割群落中二者则不相关。年降水量解释对照群落ANPP变异的62%，而连年的刈割干扰则是刈割群落中ANPP动态的主要驱动因子。群落净初级生产则显出对刈割干扰的抵抗能力，在刈割干扰的前几年，依靠群落内功能群组成的不断调节，保持相对稳定的水平，当刈割进行5年之后，群落结构的变化积累到一定程度，净初级生产迅速下降到一个较低的水平，此后依靠群落结构的不断调节来维持这一功能水平。因此，群落结构是以渐变的方式改变的，而群落功能的下降则是以跃变的形式完成的。群落依赖于结构的不断调整来保持功能的相对稳定，但结构变化到一定程度也会导致功能的衰退。 关键词：内蒙古，羊草草原;刈割演替;功能群组成;净初级生产;群落;稳定性

子午岭60年辽东栎林种子质量与森林更新

辽东栎是我国暖温带落叶阔叶林地带的优势乔木树种之一。通过26年的定位监测,对子午岭辽东栎林种子质量消减、种子萌发与环境条件、实生苗时空分布动态以及对其森林更新的影响等方面进行了初步探讨。结果表明:辽东栎林在子午岭半阳坡、半阴坡和阴坡3种类型中,平均完好种子占种子总数的26.65%;霉变种子占18.72%;动物取食虫蛀种子在阴坡远高于半阴坡和半阳坡,占到种子总数的26.32%;已发芽的种子占其总数的28.31%,且半阴坡>半阳坡>阴坡。每年均有大量种子生产,但在生境与动物的共同作用下,种子数量和质量受到很大影响,多达73.35%的种子失去生命力,直接影响实生苗的形成;地表覆盖物虽能促进种子的快速发芽,但对成苗却是一个物理障碍,影响是负作用的,主要影响因子是地表覆盖物的厚度和含水量;在辽东栎林下虽有一定的实生幼苗分布,但数量极少,平均密度仅为140~120株/hm2,且不同立地条件差异显著,严重影响森林的天然更新。

大别山岩石圈有效弹性厚度初步研究

As powerful tools to study the lithosphere dynamics, the effective elastic thickness (Te) as well as the envelope of yielding stress of lithosphere have been attracted great attention of geoscientists in the past thirty years. The oceanic lithosphere, contrary to the continental lithosphere, has more fruits for its simple structures and evolution process. In continent, the lithosphere commonly is complex and variable in the rheological, thermal structures, and has a complicated history. Therefore, the application of the effective elastic thickness in continent is still a subject to learn in a long time. Te, with the definition of the thickness of an elastic plate in theory flexured by the equal benging of the real stress in the lithosphere plate (Turcotte, 1982), marks the depth of transition between elastic and fluid behaviors of rocks subjected to stress exceeding 100 MPa over the geological timescales (McNutt, 1990). There are three methods often adapted: admittance or isostatic response function, coherence and forwarding. In principle, the models of Te consist of thermal-rheological, non-linear Maxwell, non-linear work hardening and rheological layered models. There is a tentative knowledge of Te that it is affected by the following factors: crustal thickness, crust-mantle decoupling, plate bending, boundary conditions of plate (end forces and bending moments), stress state, sedimentary layer, faulting effect, variation in the mountain belts' strike, foreland basin, inheritance of tectonic evolution, convection of mantle, seismic depth and lithosphere strength. In this thesis, the author introduces the geological sketch of the Dabie collisional orogenic belt and the Hefei Basin. The Dabie Mts. is famous for the ultra-high pressure metamorphism. The crustal materials subducted down to the depth of at least 100 km and exhumed. So that the front subjects arise such as the deeply subduction of continent, and the post-collisional crust-mantle interaction. In a geological journey at June of 1999, the author found the rarely variolitic basaltic andesite in the Dabie Mts. It occurs in Susong Group, near Zhifenghe Countryside, Susong County, Anhui Province. It is just to the south of the boundary between the high-grade Susong melange and the ultra-high grade South Dabie melange. It has a noticeable knobby or pitted appearance in the surface. The size of the varioles is about 1-4 mm. In hand-specimen and under microscope, there are distinct contacts between the varioles and the matrice. The mineralogy of the varioles is primarily radiate plagioclase, with little pyroxene, hornblende and quartz. The pyroxene, hornblende and quartz are in the interstices between plagioclase. The matrix is consisted of glass, and micro-crystals of chlorite, epidote and zoisite. It is clearly subjected and extensive alteration. The andesite has an uncommon chemical composition. The SiO_2 content is about 56.8%, TiO_2 = 0.9%, MgO = 6.4%, (Fe_2O_3)_(Total) = 6.7% ～ 7.6%, 100 Mg/(Mg+Fe) = 64.1 ～ 66.2. Mg# is significantly high. The andesite has higher abundances of large-lithophile trace elements (e.g. K, Ba, Sr, LREE), e.g. La/Nd = 5.56-6.07, low abundances of high-strength-field elements (HFSE, e.g. Ta, Nb, P, Ti), particularly Ta and Nb strongly depleted. These are consistent with the characteristics of subducted-related magmas (Pearcce, 1982; Sun and McDonaugh, 1989). In the spider diagram of trace elements, from Ce to right hand, the abundances of elements decrease quickly, showing a characteristic of the continental margins (Pearce, 1982). There has a strongly enrichment of light-rare-earth elements, with a significant diffraction of REEs (the mean value of (La/Yb)_N is 32.84). No Eu anomaly, but there are anomaly high (La/Yb)_N = 28.63-36.74, (La/Y)_N = 70.33 - 82.84. The elements Y and Yb depleted greatly, Y < 20 ppm, Y_N = 2.74-2.84, Yb_N = 2.18 - 2.35. From the La-(La/Sm) diagram, the andesite is derived from partial melting. But the epsilone value of Nd is -18.7 ～ -19.2, so that the material source may be the mantle materials affected by the crustal materials. The Nd model age is 1.9 Ga indicating that the basaltic andesite was resulted from the post-collisional crust-mantle interaction between the subducted Yangze carton and the mantle of Sino-Korea carton. To obtain the Te of the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts. and the Hefei Basin, the author applies the coherence method in this thesis. The author makes two topography-gravity profiles (profiles 7~(th) and 9~(th)) across the Dabie Mts. and the Hefei Basin, and calculates the auto-coherence, across coherence, power spectrum, across power spectrum of the topography and gravity of the two profiles. From the relationships between the coherence and the wave-number of profiles. From the relationships between the coherence and the wave-number of profiles 7~(th) and 9~(th), it is obtained that the characteristic wavelengths respectively are 157 km and 126 km. Consequently the values of effective elastic thickness are 6.5 km and 4.8 km, respectively. However, the Te values merely are the minimum value of the lithosphere because the coherencemethod in a relative small region will generate a systemic underestimation. Why there is a so low Te value? In order to check the strength of the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts., the authore tries to outline the yielding-stress envelope of the lithosphere. It is suggested that the elastic layers in the crust and upper mantle are 18 km and 35 km, respectively. Since there exist a low viscosity layer about 3-5 km thickness, so it is reasonable that the decoupling between the crust and mantle occurred. So the effective thickness of the lithosphere can be estimated from the two elastic layers. Te is about 34 km. This is the maximum strength of the lithosphere. We can make an approximately estimation about the strength of the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts.: Te is about 20-30 km. The author believes that the following factors should be responsible for the low Te value: (1) the Dabie Mts. has elevated strongly since K_3-J_1. The north part of the Dabie Mts. elevates faster than the south part today; (2) there occur large active striking faults in this area. And in the east, the huge Tan-Lu striking fault anyway tends to decrease the lithosphere strength; (3) the lithosphere beneath the Dabie Mts. is heter-homogeneous in spatio-temporal; (4) the study area just locates in the adjacent region between the eastern China where the lithosphere thickness is significantly reduced and the normal western China. These factors will decrease the lithosphere strength.

Thermocapillary Flows In Liquid Bridges Of Molten Tin With Small Aspect Ratios

Numerical simulations were conducted to study thermocapillary flows in short half-zone liquid bridges of molten tin with Prandtl number Pr = 0.009, under ramped temperature difference. The spatio-temporal structures in the thermocapillary flows in short half-zone liquid bridges with aspect ratios As = 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0 were investigated. The first critical Marangoni numbers were compared with those predicted by linear stability analyses (LSA). The second critical Marangoni numbers for As = 0.6 and 0.8 were found to be larger than that for As = 1.0. The time evolutions of the thermocapillary flows exhibited unusual features such as a change in the azimuthal wave number during the three-dimensional stationary (non-oscillating) flow regime, a change in the oscillation mode during the three-dimensional oscillatory flow regime, and the decreasing and then increasing of amplitudes in a single oscillation mode. The effects of the ramping rate of the temperature difference on the flow modes and critical conditions were studied as well. In this paper, the experimental observability of the critical conditions was also discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The degree of predictability of earthquakes in several regions of China: statistical analysis of historical data

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic-rebound theory, is applied to the historical earthquake data from three strong earthquake-prone regions of China, including North China, Southwest China, and the Taiwan seismic regions. The results show that the seismicity along a plate boundary (Taiwan) is more active than in intraplate regions (North and Southwest China). The degree of predictability or regularity of seismic events in these seismic regions, based on both the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and fitted sensitivity parameters, follows the order Taiwan, Southwest China, and North China, which is further identified by numerical simulations. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proper orthogonal decomposition of oscillatory Marangoni flow in half-zone liquid bridges of low-Pr fluids

Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) using method of snapshots was performed on three different types of oscillatory Marangoni flows in half-zone liquid bridges of low-Pr fluid (Pr = 0.01). For each oscillation type, a series of characteristic modes (eigenfunctions) have been extracted from the velocity and temperature disturbances, and the POD provided spatial structures of the eigenfunctions, their oscillation frequencies, amplitudes, and phase shifts between them. The present analyses revealed the common features of the characteristic modes for different oscillation modes: four major velocity eigenfunctions captured more than 99% of the velocity fluctuation energy form two pairs, one of which is the most energetic. Different from the velocity disturbance, one of the major temperature eigenfunctions makes the dominant contribution to the temperature fluctuation energy. On the other hand, within the most energetic velocity eigenfuction pair, the two eigenfunctions have similar spatial structures and were tightly coupled to oscillate with the same frequency, and it was determined that the spatial structures and phase shifts of the eigenfunctions produced the different oscillatory disturbances. The interaction of other major modes only enriches the secondary spatio-temporal structures of the oscillatory disturbances. Moreover, the present analyses imply that the oscillatory disturbance, which is hydrodynamic in nature, primarily originates from the interior of the liquid bridge. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conical emission of Ti : sapphire femtosecond laser pulses propagating in water

Conical emission is investigated for Ti:sapphire femtosecond laser pulses propagating in water. The colored rings can be observed in the forward direction due to the constructive and destructive interference of transverse wavevector, which are induced by the spatio-temporal gradient of the free-electron density. With increasing input laser energy, due to filamentation and pulse splitting induced by the plasma created by multiphoton excitation of electrons from the valence band to the conduction band, the on-axis spectrum of the conical emission is widely broadened and strongly modulated with respect to input laser spectrum, and finally remains fairly constant at higher laser energy due to intensity clamping in the filaments.