产品线成本模型的比较与分析

为给软件产品线决策者应用软件产品线模型提供理论上的参考,综合分析比较了近年来的20种软件产品线模型,在对软件产品线模型的投资循环、重用方式、货币时间价值、经济函数、成本因子和重用成本等方面因素进行细致分析的基础上提出了软件产品线模型的比较框架,在该框架内着重分析了其中5种典型的软件产品线模型,对应用软件产品线开发方式的成本估算和投资分析做了细致分析,并对当前软件产品线模型时存在的问题和发展方向进行了探讨.

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

Computation of stress intensity factors by the sub-region mixed finite element method of lines

Based on the sub-region generalized variational principle, a sub-region mixed version of the newly-developed semi-analytical 'finite element method of lines' (FEMOL) is proposed in this paper for accurate and efficient computation of stress intensity factors (SIFs) of two-dimensional notches/cracks. The circular regions surrounding notch/crack tips are taken as the complementary energy region in which a number of leading terms of singular solutions for stresses are used, with the sought SIFs being among the unknown coefficients. The rest of the arbitrary domain is taken as the potential energy region in which FEMOL is applied to obtain approximate displacements. A mixed system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and algebraic equations is derived via the sub-region generalized variational principle. A singularity removal technique that eliminates the stress parameters from the mixed equation system eventually yields a standard FEMOL ODE system, the solution of which is no longer singular and is simply and efficiently obtained using a standard general-purpose ODE solver. A number of numerical examples, including bi-material notches/cracks in anti-plane and plane elasticity, are given to show the generally excellent performance of the proposed method.

Development of SSR primers from EST sequences and their application in germplasm identification of Porphyra lines (Rhodophyta)

This paper reports the development of SSR markers from EST data and their utilization in germplasm identification of Porphyra. The publicly available EST (expressed sequence tag) sequences of Porphyra were searched from the Internet (www.kazura.or.jp/en/plant/porphyra/EST/). From a total of 20,779 obtained EST sequences, 391 SSRs (simple sequence repeats) were analysed with SSRIT software (www.gramene.org/db/searches/ssrtool). From those, 48 SSR primer-pairs were designed and tested by commonly used SSR reaction conditions using 22 Porphyra DNA samples as templates. Results showed that 41 SSR primer-pairs gave good amplification patterns. These were used to conduct SSR analyses of genetic diversity and variety identification of the 22 Porphyra lines. A dendrogram and the DNA fingerprints of the Porphyra lines were developed based on the obtained SSR data.

Identification of Porphyra lines (Rhodophyta) by AFLP DNA fingerprinting and molecular markers

Twenty-seven Porphyra lines from 5 classes, including lines widely used in China, wild lines, and lines introduced to China from abroad in recent years, were screened by means of amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) with 24 primer pairs. From the generated AFLP products, 13 bands that showed stable and repeatable AFLP patterns amplified by primer pairs M-CGA/E-AA and M-CGA/E-TA were scored and used to develop the DNA fingerprints of the 27 Porphyra lines. Moreover, the DNA fingerprinting patterns were converted into computer language expressed with digitals 1 and 0, which represented the presence (numbered as 1) or absence (numbered as 0) of the corresponding band. On the basis of these results, computerized AFLP DNA fingerprints were constructed in which each of the 27 Porphyra lines has its unique AFLP,fingerprinting pattern and can be easily distinguished from others. Software called PGI-AFLP (Porphyra germplasm identification-AFLP) was designed for identification of the 27 Porphyra lines. In addition, 21 specific AFLP markers from 15 Porphyra lines were identified; 6 AFLP markers from 4 Porphyra lines were sequenced, and 2 of them were successfully converted into SCAR (sequence characterized amplification region) markers. The developed AFLP DNA fingerprinting and specific molecular markers provide useful ways for the identification, classification, and resource protection of the Porphyra lines.

Identification of 27 Porphyra lines (Rhodophyta) by DNA fingerprinting and molecular markers

Twenty-seven Porphyra lines, including lines widely used in China, wild lines and lines introduced to China from abroad in recent years, were screened by random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique with 120 operon primers. From the generated RAPD products, 11 bands that showed stable and repeatable RAPD patterns amplified by OPC-04, OPJ-18 and OPX-06, respectively were scored and used to develop the DNA fingerprints of the 27 Porphyra lines. Moreover, the DNA fingerprinting patterns were converted into computer language expressed with two digitals, 1 and 0, which represented the presence (numbered as 1) or absence (numbered as 0) of the corresponding band, respectively. Based on the above results, computerized DNA fingerprints were constructed in which each of the 27 Porphyra lines has its unique fingerprinting pattern and can be easily distinguished from others. Software named PGI (Porphyra germplasm identification) was designed for identification of the 27 Porphyra lines. In addition, seven specific RAPD markers from seven Porphyra lines were identified and two of them were successfully converted into SCAR (sequence characterized amplification region) markers. The developed DNA fingerprinting and specific molecular markers provide useful ways for the identification, classification and resource protection of the Porphyra lines.

Strength of Offshore Pipelines in Different Operation States and Analyzing Software

在近海管线的铺设、安装、使用过程中有多种作业状态：在位、悬跨、挖沟、提吊、铺管等。各种状态下管线的受力特点不同,加上管线结构、海况和海底土壤等因素又都很复杂,所以近海管线的强度分析难度大、内容多。分别采用解析方法、数值方法（有限元法、打靶法）和二者结合来解决理论上的（如几何非线性、动边界等）、实用性方面的难点。在理论分析的基础上,编制了符合产业部门工程师使用要求的近海管线强度分析软件。介绍了该软件进行力学分析时采用的理论以及软件界面。

Mechanics of a grip system of three-key-board hydraulic tongs developed for offshore oil pipe lines

This paper carries out the analysis of mechanics of a grip system of three-key-board hydraulic tongs developed for offshore oil pipe lines which has been successfully used in oil fields in China. The main improvement of this system is that a lever frame structure is used in the structural design, which reduces greatly the stresses of the major components of the oil pipe tongs. Theoretical analysis and numerical calculation based on thirteen basic equations developed Show that the teeth board of the tongs is not easy to slip as frequently happens to other systems and is of higher reliability.

Stress intensity factors calculation in anti-plane fracture problem by orthogonal integral extraction method based on femol

For an anti-plane problem, the differential operator is self-adjoint and the corresponding eigenfunctions belong to the Hilbert space. The orthogonal property between eigenfunctions (or between the derivatives of eigenfunctions) of anti-plane problem is exploited. We developed for the first time two sets of radius-independent orthogonal integrals for extraction of stress intensity factors (SIFs), so any order SIF can be extracted based on a certain known solution of displacement (an analytic result or a numerical result). Many numerical examples based on the finite element method of lines (FEMOL) show that the present method is very powerful and efficient.