28 resultados para Seismic Hazard

em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal


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Stress change is one of key factors in seismic nucleating and triggering; therefore for understanding and forecasting earthquakes, it is necessary to research on stress status and its changes in rocks. Propagating in underground structures, wave velocity and attenuation contain information on stress changes of the Earth’s interior. For a better understanding of relationship between seismic data and stress changes, modeling and ultrasonic test supply significant references. In this article, acoustoelastic theory is introduced to explain nonlinear elastic characteristics of rocks. Based on the acoustoelastic theory, a solid-fluid coupled model is given to calculate velocity under different stress for porous and liquid fulfilled rocks. Except for the stress-velocity relationship, effects of pore pressure induced stress changes on ultrasonic coda attenuation are also studied. Intrinsic attenuation quality factors are calculated for a comparison purpose. Finally, the relationship between elastic constants and stress changes is thoroughly investigated, a mixture model from two phases of Hooke media is introduced to explain the differences between dynamic and static moduli, a relation among wave length, wave velocities and elastic moduli considering dimension of microstructure, dimension and state of surface between phases is presented. The most important aspect of this work is exploring and establishing relationships between the seismic properties of rocks and changes of their stress conditions, which will have its application in earthquake forecast and seismic hazard.

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This dissertation that includes most of the P. PH.D research work during 2001~2002 covers the large-scale distribution of continental earthquakes in mainland China, the mechanism and statistic features of grouped strong earthquakes related to the tidal triggering, some results in earthquake prediction with correlativity analysis methods, and the flushes from the two strong continental earthquakes in South Asia in 2001. Mainland China is the only continental sub-plate that is compressed by collision boundaries at its two sides, within which earthquakes are dispersive and distributed as seismic belts with different widths. The control capability of the continental block boundaries on the strong earthquakes and seismic hazards is calculated and analyzed in this dissertation. By mapping the distribution of the 31282 ML:3s2,0 earthquakes, I found that the depth of continental earthquakes depend on the tectonic zonings. The events on the boundaries of relatively integrated blocks are deep and those on the new-developed ruptures are shallow. The average depth of earthquakes in the West of China is about 5km deeper than that in the east. The western and southwestern brim of Tarim Basin generated the deepest earthquakes in mainland China. The statistic results from correlation between the grouped M7 earthquakes and the tidal stress show that the strong events were modulated by tidal stress in active periods. Taking Taiwan area as an example, the dependence of moderate events on the moon phase angles (£>) is analyzed, which shows that the number of the earthquakes in Taiwan when D is 50° ,50° +90° and 50° +180° is more than 2 times of standard deviation over the average frequency at each degree, corresponding to the 4th, 12th and 19th solar day after the new moon. The probability of earthquake attack to the densely populated Taiwan island on the 4th solar day is about 4 times of that on other solar days. On the practice of earthquake prediction, I calculated and analyzed the temporal correlation of the earthquakes in Xinjinag area, Qinghai-Tibet area, west Yunnan area, North China area and those in their adjacent areas, and predicted at the end of 2000 that it would be a special time interval from 2001 to 2003, within which moderate to strong earthquakes would be more active in the west of China. What happened in 2001 partly validated the prediction. Within 10 months, there were 2 great continental earthquakes in south Asia, i.e., the M7.8 event in India on Jan 26 and M8.1 event in China on Nov. 14, 2001, which are the largest earthquake in the past 50 years both for India and China. No records for two great earthquakes in Asia within so short time interval. We should speculate the following aspects from the two incidences: The influence of the fallacious deployment of seismic stations on the fine location and focal mechanism determination of strong earthquakes must be affronted. It is very important to introduce comparative seismology research to seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction research. The improvement or changes in real-time prediction of strong earthquakes with precursors is urged. Methods need to be refreshed to protect environment and historical relics in earthquake-prone areas.

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In order to study the earthquake recurrence and the characteristics of earthquake series, rupture tests of rock samples and plexiglass samples were made. On rock samples, a number of acoustic emission (AE) and strain measuring points were deployed; the load was one side direct shear. The variation characteristics of AE and strain at different detecting points around the extra large fracture were observed and studied. On plexiglass samples, a series of inclined cracks were prefabricated by a small-scale compressive testing machine. The samples were then loaded on a shockproof platen, when the samples were loaded, the stress intensity factor (SIF) was determined by the laser interferometric technique and shadow optical method of caustics. The fracture conditions such as material toughness around the extra large fracture were also studied. From those experimental results and the theory of fracture mechanics, the earthquake recurrence period and the trend of post-seismic development were studied.

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Until quite recently our understanding of the basic mechanical process responsible for earthquakes and faulting was not well known. It can be argued that this was partly a consequence of the complex nature of fracture in crust and in part because evidence of brittle phenomena in the natural laboratory of the earth is often obliterated or obscured by other geological processes. While it is well understood that the spatial and temporal complexity of earthquakes and the fault structures emerge from geometrical and material built-in heterogeneities, one important open question is how the shearing becomes localized into a band of intense fractures. Here the authors address these questions through a numerical approach of a tectonic plate by considering rockmass heterogeneity both in microscopic scale and in mesoscopic scale. Numerical simulations of the progressive failure leading to collapse under long-range slow driving forces in the far-field show earthquake-like rupture behavior. $En Echelon$ crack-arrays are reproduced in the numerical simulation. It is demonstrated that the underlying fracturing induced acoustic emissions (or seismic events) display self-organized criticality------from disorder to order. The seismic cycles and the geometric structures of the fracture faces, which are found greatly depending on the material heterogeneity (especially on the macroscopic scale), agree with that observed experimentally in real brittle materials. It is concluded that in order to predict a main shock, one must have extremely detailed knowledge on very minor features of the earth's crust far from the place where the earthquake originated. If correct, the model proposed here seemingly provides an explanation as to why earthquakes to date are not predicted so successfully. The reason is not that the authors do not understand earthquake mechanisms very well but that they still know little about our earth's crust.

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An analytical solution to the three-dimensional scattering and diffraction of plane SV-waves by a saturated hemispherical alluvial valley in elastic half-space is obtained by using Fourier-Bessel series expansion technique. The hemispherical alluvial valley with saturated soil deposits is simulated with Biot's dynamic theory for saturated porous media. The following conclusions based on numerical results can be drawn: (1) there are a significant differences in the seismic response simulation between the previous single-phase models and the present two-phase model; (2) the normalized displacements on the free surface of the alluvial valley depend mainly on the incident wave angles, the dimensionless frequency of the incident SV waves and the porosity of sediments; (3) with the increase of the incident angle, the displacement distributions become more complicated; and the displacements on the free surface of the alluvial valley increase as the porosity of sediments increases.

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Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis), a protected endangered species, is the sole freshwater subspecies of finless porpoise, living only in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China, and its appended lakes. Its population has decreased sharply to 1,400 because of human activities, including environmental contamination. In the present study, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) were determined in the blubber, liver, kidney, stomach, small intestine, and brains of five individual Yangtze finless porpoises collected from 1998 to 2004. The results showed PCB concentrations ranged from 0.06 to 1.89 mu g/g lipid weight in the organs and consisted mainly of penta-, hexa-. and decachlorinated biphenyls. The PBDE concentrations were between 5.32 and 72.76 ng/g lipid weight. Tetra-, penta-, and hexabrominated diphenyl ethers were the major homologues. The PCDD/F concentrations ranged from 65 to 1,563 pg/g lipid weight, and their predominant homologues were penta- and hexachlorinated dibenzofurans and hepta- and octachlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins. The hazard quotients (HQs) based on toxic equivalency were determined to be greater than one in all individuals for PCBs, for PCDD/Fs, and for PCBs and PCDD/Fs In addition, HQs would be higher if PBDEs were included. The results suggest that reduction of environmental contamination may contribute greatly to protecting this highly endangered species.

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This paper describes the ground target detection, classification and sensor fusion problems in distributed fiber seismic sensor network. Compared with conventional piezoelectric seismic sensor used in UGS, fiber optic sensor has advantages of high sensitivity and resistance to electromagnetic disturbance. We have developed a fiber seismic sensor network for target detection and classification. However, ground target recognition based on seismic sensor is a very challenging problem because of the non-stationary characteristic of seismic signal and complicated real life application environment. To solve these difficulties, we study robust feature extraction and classification algorithms adapted to fiber sensor network. An united multi-feature (UMF) method is used. An adaptive threshold detection algorithm is proposed to minimize the false alarm rate. Three kinds of targets comprise personnel, wheeled vehicle and tracked vehicle are concerned in the system. The classification simulation result shows that the SVM classifier outperforms the GMM and BPNN. The sensor fusion method based on D-S evidence theory is discussed to fully utilize information of fiber sensor array and improve overall performance of the system. A field experiment is organized to test the performance of fiber sensor network and gather real signal of targets for classification testing.

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Seismic sensors are widely used to detect moving target in ground sensor networks. Footstep detection is very important for security surveillance and other applications. Because of non-stationary characteristic of seismic signal and complex environment conditions, footstep detection is a very challenging problem. A novel wavelet denoising method based on singular value decomposition is used to solve these problems. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of raw footstep signal is greatly improved using this strategy. The feature extraction method is also discussed after denosing procedure. Comparing, with kurtosis statistic feature, the wavelet energy feature is more promising for seismic footstep detection, especially in a long distance surveillance.