Modeling the effect of ozone loss on photobleaching of chromophoric dissolved organic matter in the St. Lawrence estuary

Temporal trends in total ozone for the St. Lawrence estuary were estimated from ground-based measurements at the NOAA/CMDL station in Caribou, Maine. Linear regression analysis showed that from 1979 to 1999 total ozone has decreased by about 3.3% per decade on an annual basis and ≤6.2% per decade on a monthly basis relative to unperturbed (pre-CFC) levels. The influence of increased ultraviolet-B (280–320 nm) radiation associated with ozone depletion on water column photochemical processes was evaluated by modeling the photobleaching of chromophoric dissolved organic material (CDOM). Linear regression analysis showed small (<0.5% per decade), but statistically significant upward trends in maximum noontime photobleaching rates. Most notably, positive trends in relative rates for May, June, and July, when maximum absolute rates are expected, were predicted. A global model based on TOMS ozone data revealed increases in photobleaching of ≤3% per decade at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Radiation amplification factors for increases in photochemically weighted UV (280–400 nm) in response to ozone depletion were estimated at 0.1 and 0.08 for photobleaching of CDOM absorbance at 300 and 350 nm, respectively. Application of the laboratory-based model to conditions that more closely resembled those in situ were variable with both overestimation and underestimation of measured rates. The differences between modeled rates and observed rates under quasi-natural conditions were as large or larger than the predicted increases due to ozone depletion. These comparisons suggest that biological activity and mixing play an important, but as yet ill-defined, role in modifying photochemical processes.