Cross-correlation between WMAP and 2MASS: non-Gaussianity induced by the SZ effect

We study the non-Gaussianity induced by the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect in cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuation maps. If a CMB map is contaminated by the SZ effect of galaxies or galaxy clusters, the CMB maps should have similar non-Gaussian features to the galaxy and cluster fields. Using the WMAP data and 2MASS galaxy catalogue, we show that the non-Gaussianity of the 2MASS galaxies is imprinted on WMAP maps. The signature of non-Gaussianity can be seen with the fourth-order cross-correlation between the wavelet variables of the WMAP maps and 2MASS clusters. The intensity of the fourth-order non-Gaussian features is found to be consistent with the contamination of the SZ effect of 2MASS galaxies. We also show that this non-Gaussianity can not be seen by the high-order autocorrelation of the WMAP. This is because the SZ signals in the autocorrelations of the WMAP data generally are weaker than the WMAP-2MASS cross-correlations by a factor f(2), which is the ratio between the powers of the SZ-effect map and the CMB fluctuations on the scale considered. Therefore, the ratio of high-order autocorrelations of CMB maps to cross-correlations of the CMB maps and galaxy field would be effective to constrain the powers of the SZ effect on various scales.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society