The orbital scale evolution of regional climate recorded in a long sediment core from Heqing；China

IEECAS SKLLQG

COASTAL SEA-LEVEL AND THE LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE STATE - A DOWNSCALING EXERCISE FOR THE JAPANESE ISLANDS

A major problem which is envisaged in the course of man-made climate change is sea-level rise. The global aspect of the thermal expansion of the sea water likely is reasonably well simulated by present day climate models; the variation of sea level, due to variations of the regional atmospheric forcing and of the large-scale oceanic circulation, is not adequately simulated by a global climate model because of insufficient spatial resolution. A method to infer the coastal aspects of sea level change is to use a statistical ''downscaling'' strategy: a linear statistical model is built upon a multi-year data set of local sea level data and of large-scale oceanic and/or atmospheric data such as sea-surface temperature or sea-level air-pressure. We apply this idea to sea level along the Japanese coast. The sea level is related to regional and North Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level air pressure. Two relevant processes are identified. One process is the local wind set-up of water due to regional low-frequency wind anomalies; the other is a planetary scale atmosphere-ocean interaction which takes place in the eastern North Pacific.

未来气候变化对黄土高原黑河流域水资源的影响

气候变化对黄土高原的水资源有重要影响,对其影响进行评估可以为区域发展提供重要的决策依据。基于分布式水文模型SWAT和4种全球环流模式的各3种排放情景,评估了2010～2039年黄土高塬沟壑区黑河流域水资源对气候变化的潜在响应。结果表明,黑河流域2010～2039年的年均降水变化-2.3%～7.8%,年均最高和最低温度分别升高0.7～2.2℃和1.2～2.8℃,年均径流量变化-19.8%～37.0%,1.2m剖面年均土壤水分含量变化-5.5%～17.2%,年均蒸散量普遍增长0.1%～5.9%;水文气象变量变化趋势复杂,但T检验表明年降水、径流、土壤水分和蒸散增长的概率较大。对于季节变化,降水可能在12～7月份和9月份增长,8月份和10～11月份减少;径流在4～7月份和9～10月份增加,11～3月份和8月份减少;土壤水分在各月都增长;蒸散11～6月份普遍增长,7～10月份减少的可能性较大。未来气候将发生显著变化并对水资源有重要影响,需采取必要的措施来减缓其不利影响。

长白山地区近50年气候变化及其预估

收集长白山地区15个气象站1953-2007年气温、降水、蒸发、日照时数和水汽压观测数据和国家气候中心整理的2001-2099年的 气温、降水预估资料，利用数理统计方法，系统分析长白山地区气候现状、变化及其预估，为气候变化对人类生存环境影响研究并制定适应对策提供依据。主要结论如下： 1.长白山地区气温、降水日数、日照时数和不同界限温度（≥0℃、≥5℃、≥10℃和<0℃）积温均有显著趋势。年极端最低、年平均、平均最高/最低气温和气温日/年较差在1984、1992、1995、1985、1972和1979年发生突变。所有最高/最低气温与日照百分率有显著负相关关系，一定程度是温室效应结果；最高、最低气温变化不同步造成气温日较差和年较差的非对称性。 2.长白山地区生长季节合计降水量和降水强度日际变化较大。降水以7月30日为界，呈现前升后降极显著的线性趋势，且发生均值突变。降水强度以6月27日和9月3日为分界点，分为三个阶段。降水集中度、集中期和集中时段时空非均一性分布明显。 3.在SRES A1B、SRES A2和SRES B1三种情景下年平均气温均为上升趋势，年内变化一致为冬季升温最迅速，夏季则相对缓慢；而年降水强度总体增加，年内变化比较一致：冬季增加最为明显，而夏季变化不大。 4.未来长白山地区各站≥0℃、≥5℃和≥10℃的积温均有不同程度增加，持续时间延长。负积温增加，持续时间缩短，开始日期推迟，而结束时间提前。

Quantitatively distinguishing sediments from the Yangtze River and the Yellow River using delta Eu-N-I REEs pound plot

Sediment samples were collected from the lower channel of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River and the contents of rare earth elements (REEs) were measured. In addition, some historical REEs data were collected from published literatures. Based on the delta Eu-N-I REEs pound plot, a clear boundary was found between the sediments from the two rivers. The boundary can be described as an orthogonal polynomial equation by ordinary linear regression with sediments from the Yangtze River located above the curve and sediments from the Yellow River located below the curve. To validate this method, the REEs contents of sediments collected from the estuaries of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River were measured. In addition, the REEs data of sediment Core 255 from the Yangtze River and Core YA01 from the Yellow River were collected. Results show that the samples from the Yangtze River estuary and Core 255 almost are above the curve and most samples from the Yellow River estuary and Core YA01 are below the curve in the delta Eu-N-I REEs pound plot. The plot and the regression equation can be used to distinguish sediments from the Yangtze River and the Yellow River intuitively and quantitatively, and to trace the sediment provenance of the eastern seas of China. The difference between the sediments from two rivers in the delta Eu-N-I REEs pound plot is caused by different mineral compositions and regional climate patterns of the source areas. The relationship between delta Eu-N and I REEs pound is changed little during the transport from the source area to the river, and from river to the sea. Thus the original information on mineral compositions and climate of the source area was preserved.

中新世秦安黄土一古土壤序列记录的古气候变化周期

Analysis of periodic oscillations of climate is very important in understanding the behavior of the climate system. Milankovitch hypothesis, which holds that the glacial-interglacial climatic cycles during the Quaternary were primarily driven by variations in orbital parameters, has been supported by substantial geological evidence. Continuous long-term and high-resolution records are crucial to detect how variations of Earth's orbital parameters affected climate before the Quaternary when the boundary conditions were significantly different. Qinan loess formed in the Miocene is nearly continuous aeolian deposit in northern China. Previous study has established a constrained chronology, which provides a basis to examine long-term climatic variations. One of important issues to untangle the mechanisms behind major climate changes is the investigation of climate cycles recorded in Qinan loess. In this paper, two climatic proxies, magnetic susceptibility and redness, are analyzed for QA-I section to evaluate climate cycles using Maximum entropy spectral analysis and Blackman-Tuckey method. Main conclusions are presented as following: Results exhibit significant peaks at periods of 100 ka, 64 ka, 41 ka, 30 ka and 23 ka, but also 1000 ka, 600 ka and 400 ka. These peaks correspond to the dominant periods of the Earth's orbit parameters, which indicates that the formation of the aeolian sediment in northern China might be primarily driven by variations in orbital parameters. Fluctuations with different cycles respectively dominated in different periods. Major shifts in the dominant cycles occurred at 20.3, 19.0, 17.9, 15.2, 12.5 and 11.3 Myr ago. The transition that happened at 17.9 Myr ago was synchronous with the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, while others at 15.2, 12.5 and 11.3 Myr ago were in good agreement with the timing of the development of Antarctic ice sheet. Therefore we inferred that these shifts might be related to changes in global ice volume and/or the Tibetan uplift. 3. The strong period of 100 ka is observed between 17.9 and 15.2, and 12.5 and 11.3 Myr ago. Ice sheet-climate models that have been used to explain the cause of the 100 ka period since the middle Pleistocene couldn't be responsible for driving the 100 ka climate cycle in the Miocene in Northern China because of the different boundary of climatic conditions between the Quaternary and Miocene. Further investigation is needed to understand how this cycle became dominant in Qinan loess records during these two time segments.