State Vector: A New Approach to Prediction of the Failure of Brittle Heterogeneous Media and Large Earthquakes

The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe activity patterns of a physical field in its manner of coarsegrain. In this paper, we propose an approach by which the state vector was applied to describe quantitatively the damage evolution of the brittle heterogeneous systems, and some interesting results are presented, i.e., prior to the macro-fracture of rock specimens and occurrence of a strong earthquake, evolutions of the four relevant scalars time series derived from the state vectors changed anomalously. As retrospective studies, some prominent large earthquakes occurred in the Chinese Mainland (e.g., the M 7.4 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975, and the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976, etc) were investigated. Results show considerable promise that the time-dependent state vectors could serve as a kind of precursor to predict earthquakes.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Prediction of structural dynamic plastic shear failure by Johnson's damage number

It is proved that Johnson's damage number is the sole similarity parameter for dynamic plastic shear failure of structures loaded impulsively, therefore, dynamic plastic shear failure can be understood when damage number reaches a critical value. It is suggested that the damage number be generally used to predict the dynamic plastic shear failure of structures under various kinds of dynamic loads (impulsive loading, rectangular pressure pulse, exponential pressure pulse, etc.,). One of the advantages for using the damage number to predict such kind of failure is that it is conveniently used for dissimilar material modeling.

High Aspect Ratio (L/D) Riser Viv Prediction Using Wake Oscillator Model

A two-dimensional (2-D) vortex-induced vibration (VIV) prediction model for high aspect ratio (LID) riser subjected to uniform and sheared flow is studied in this paper. The nonlinear structure equations are considered. The near wake dynamics describing the fluctuating nature of vortex shedding is modeled using classical van der Pol equation. A new approach was applied to calibrate the empirical parameters in the wake oscillator model. Compared the predicted results with the experimental data and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) results. Good agreements are observed. It can be concluded that the present model can be used as simple computational tool in predicting some aspects of VIV of long flexible structures. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast Computing For Lurr Of Earthquake Prediction

The LURR theory is a new approach for earthquake prediction, which achieves good results in earthquake prediction within the China mainland and regions in America, Japan and Australia. However, the expansion of the prediction region leads to the refinement of its longitude and latitude, and the increase of the time period. This requires increasingly more computations, and the volume of data reaches the order of GB, which will be very difficult for a single CPU. In this paper, a new method was introduced to solve this problem. Adopting the technology of domain decomposition and parallelizing using MPI, we developed a new parallel tempo-spatial scanning program.

On the influence zone and the prediction of tensile strength of particulate polymeric composites

An intended numerical investigation is carried out. The results indicate that, even if a perfect adhesive bond is preserved between the particles and matrix materials, the two-phase element cell model is unable to predict the strength increment of the particulate polymeric composites (PPC). To explore the main reinforcing mechanism, additional microscopic experiment is performed. An ''influence zone'' was observed around each particle which is measured about 2 to 10 micrometers in thickness for a glass-polyethylene mixture. Then, an improved computational model is presented to include the ''influence zone'' effect and several mechanical behaviors of PPC are well simulated through this new model.

Wavelike patterns in one-dimensional coupled map lattices

We investigate the existence of wavelike solution for the logistic coupled map lattices for which the spatiotemporal periodic patterns can be predicted by a simple two-dimensional mapping. The existence of such wavelike solutions is proved by the implicit function theorem with constraints. We also examine the stabilities of these wave solutions under perturbations of uniform small deformation type. We show that in some specific cases these perturbations are completely general. The technique used in this paper is also applicable to investigate other space-time regular patterns.

Convective coupled map for simulating spatiotemporal chaos in flows

A coupled map lattices with convective nonlinearity or, for short, Convective Coupled Map (CCM) is proposed in this paper to simulate spatiotemporal chaos in fluid hows. It is found that the parameter region of spatiotemporal chaos can be determined by the maximal Liapunov exponent of its complexity time series. This simple model implies a similar physical mechanism for turbulence such that the route to spatiotemporal chaos in fluid hows can be envisaged.

The mechanism of pattern selection in coupled map lattices

The pattern selection of one-dimensional coupled map lattices is studied in this paper. It is shown by spatiotemporal variable separation that there exists a threshold wavelength in pattern selection which possesses wave-like structures in space and periodic chaotic motion in time.

The strange attractor of a kind of 2-dimensional map and dynamical properties on it

On the basis of previous works, the strange attractor in real physical systems is discussed. Louwerier attractor is used as an example to illustrate the geometric structure and dynamical properties of strange attractor. Then the strange attractor of a kind of two-dimensional map is analysed. Based on some conditions, it is proved that the closure of the unstable manifolds of hyberbolic fixed point of map is a strange attractor in real physical systems.

Prediction of mixed-mode cracking direction in random, short-fibre composite-materials

The prediction of cracking direction in composite materials is of significance to the design of composite structures. This paper presents several methods for predicting the cracking direction in the double grooved tension-shear specimen which gives mixed-mode cracking. Five different criteria are used in this analysis: two of them have been used by other investigators and the others are proposed by the present authors. The strain energy density criterion proposed by G.C. Sih is modified to take account of the influence of the anisotropy of the strength on the direction of crack. The two failure criteria of Tsai-Hill and Norris are extended to predict the crack orientation. The stress distributions in the near-notch zone are calculated by using the 8-node quadrilateral isoparametric finite element method. The predictions of all the criteria except one are in good agreement with the experimental measurement. In addition, on the basis of the FEM results, the size of the zone in which the singular term is dominant is estimated.

Prediction of particle distribution in isotropic turbulence by large-eddy simulation

The recent application of large-eddy simulation (LES) to particle-laden turbulence requires that the LES with a subgrid scale (SGS) model could accurately predict particle distributions. Usually, a SGS particle model is used to recover the small-scale structures of velocity fields. In this study, we propose a rescaling technique to recover the effects of small-scale motions on the preferential concentration of inertial particles. The technique is used to simulate particle distribution in isotropic turbulence by LES and produce consistent results with direct numerical simulation (DNS). Key words: particle distribution, particle-laden turbulence, large-eddy simulation, subgrid scale model.

Prediction Of Shear-Band Thickness In Metallic Glasses

We derive an explicit expression for predicting the thicknesses of shear bands in metallic glasses. The model demonstrates that the shear-band thickness is mainly dominated by the activation size of the shear transformation zone (STZ) and its activation free volume concentration. The predicted thicknesses agree well with the results of measurements and simulations. The underlying physics is attributed to the local topological instability of the activated STZ. The result is of significance in understanding the origin of inhomogeneous flow in metallic glasses. (C) 2009 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Effective Moduli of Carbon Nanotube-Reinforced Composites with Waviness and Debonding

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have been regarded as ideal reinforcements of high-performance composites with enormous applications. However, the waviness of the CNTs and the interfacial bonding condition between them and the matrix are two key factors that influence the reinforcing efficiency. In this paper, the effects of the waviness of the CNTs and the interfacial debonding between them and the matrix on the effective moduli of CNT-reinforced composites are studied. A simple analytical model is presented to investigate the influence of the waviness on the effective moduli. Then, two methods are proposed to examine the influence of the debonding. It is shown that both the waviness and debonding can significantly reduce the stiffening effect of the CNTs. The effective moduli are very sensitive to the waviness when the latter is small, and this sensitivity decreases with the increase of the waviness. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.