Characteristic rainfall for warning of debris flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow. The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase, and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows. Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin, Yunnan Province, in southwestern China, demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall. It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram. The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution. It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin, a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

辽河流域降雨侵蚀力的时空变化分析

降雨侵蚀力是反映流域降雨侵蚀能力的综合指标之一。根据辽河流域10个气象站的日降雨量资料,利用日降雨侵蚀力模型估算辽河流域的降雨侵蚀力。结果表明:辽河流域降雨侵蚀力的空间变异与降雨量的空间分布趋势基本一致,由东南向西北递减,变化于1 000~3 800 MJ.mm/(hm2.h.a)之间;降雨侵蚀力年内集中度高,6—8月3个月约占全年的80%;降雨侵蚀力年际变化大,年际变率Cv在0.367~0.649之间,采用时序系列的Mann-Kendall检验表明,降雨侵蚀力并无显著变化趋势;特别是在流域水土流失严重的西辽河地区,年降雨侵蚀力较小,但年内集中程度大,年际变化更突出。

黄土高原竹节形水平沟的断面设计

以陕北延安黄土高原为例 ,经分析得出 :(1)黄土高原在实施竹节水平沟整地工程时 ,设计暴雨可采用 10年一遇 3h降水 6 0 mm的标准 ;(2 )每个竹节的蓄水容积不得小于 2 .5m×1.2 m× 0 .35m

黄土高原降雨空间分布的不均匀性研究

根据黄土高原13条流域的降雨资料，分三种雨型即局地强对流条件引起的小范围、短历时、高强度的局地性暴雨（A型暴雨），峰面型降雨夹有局地雷暴性质的较大范围、中历时、中强度暴雨（B型暴雨），峰面型降雨引起的大面积、长历时、低强度暴雨（C型暴雨）；选用流域面雨量离差系数Cv、流域降雨不均匀系数η和流域最大点与最小点降雨量比值系数α三种指标，分析了次降雨空间分布的不均匀性。

大气季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响研究

利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射（OLR）等资料，应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法，研究了东亚夏季风(EASM）的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下： （1）综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数，并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现，气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率，主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起，造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化，在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变，造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 （2）东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期，以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态，第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势；第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制，主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势；第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 （3）热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此，在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下，大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播，副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区，乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主；北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 （4）季风爆发期，伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋， 冷空气向南输送，10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下，ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋（EAP）以及太平洋-北美（PNA）低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强，东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态，30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性；30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 （5）30-60d滤波场，菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时，季风槽加强、东伸，季风槽内热带气旋（TC）频数增加；当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时，季风槽减弱、西退，TC处于间歇期，生成位置不集中。 （6）在El Nino态下，大气季节内振荡偏弱，北传特征不明显，但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主，EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域，常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现，易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害，长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下，大气季节内振荡活跃，且具有明显的向北传播特征，PNA低频波列显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主；EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区，这些地区出现异常持续强降水，华南和淮河流域多干旱；在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期，ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主，长江中下游常常出现二度梅。

Numerical Study on Rainfall Infiltration in Rock-Soil Blocks

A mathematical model for the rain infiltration in the rock-soil slop has been established and solved by using the finite element method. The unsteady water infiltrating process has been simulated to get water content both in the homogeneous and heterogeneous media. The simulated results show that the rock blocks in the rock-soil slop can cause the wetting front moving fast. If the rain intensity is increased, the saturated region will be formed quickly while other conditions are the same. If the rain intensity keeps a constant, it is possible to accelerate the generation of the saturated region by properly increasing the vertical filtration rate of the rock-soil slop. However, if the vertical filtration rate is so far greater than the rain intensity, it will be difficult to form the saturated region in the rock-soil slop. The numerical method was verified by comparing the calculation results with the field test data.

Numerical study on rainfall infiltration in rock-soil slop

A mathematical model for the rain infiltration in the rock-soil slop has been established and solved by using the finite element method. The unsteady water infiltrating process has been simulated to get water content both in the homogeneous and heterogeneous media. The simulated results show that the rock blocks in the rock-soil slop can cause the wetting front moving fast. If the rain intensity is increased, the saturated region will be formed quickly while other conditions are the same. If the rain intensity keeps a constant, it is possible to accelerate the generation of the saturated region by properly increasing the vertical filtration rate of the rock-soil slop. However, if the vertical filtration rate is so far greater than the rain intensity, it will be difficult to form the saturated region in the rock-soil slop. The numerical method was verified by comparing the calculation results with the field test data.