Prediction and elucidation of the population dynamics of Microcystis spp. in Lake Dianchi (China) by means of artificial neural networks

Lake Dianchi is a shallow and turbid lake, located in Southwest China. Since 1985, Lake Dianchi has experienced severe cyanabacterial blooms (dominated by Microcystis spp.). In extreme cases, the algal cell densities have exceeded three billion cells per liter. To predict and elucidate the population dynamics ofMicrocystis spp. in Lake Dianchi, a neural network based model was developed. The correlation coefficient (R 2) between the predicted algal concentrations by the model and the observed values was 0.911. Sensitivity analysis was performed to clarify the algal dynamics to the changes of environmental factors. The results of a sensitivity analysis of the neural network model suggested that small increases in pH could cause significantly reduced algal abundance. Further investigations on raw data showed that the response of Microcystis spp. concentration to pH increase was dependent on algal biomass and pH level. When Microcystis spp. population and pH were moderate or low, the response of Microcystis spp. population would be more likely to be positive in Lake Dianchi; contrarily, Microcystis spp. population in Lake Dianchi would be more likely to show negative response to pH increase when Microcystis spp. population and pH were high. The paper concluded that the extremely high concentration of algal population and high pH could explain the distinctive response of Microcystis spp. population to +1 SD (standard deviation) pH increase in Lake Dianchi. And the paper also elucidated the algal dynamics to changes of other environmental factors. One SD increase of water temperature (WT) had strongest positive relationship with Microcystis spp. biomass. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) had strong positive effect on Microcystis spp. abundance while total nitrogen (TN), biological oxygen demand in five days (BOD5), and dissolved oxygen had only weak relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration. And transparency (Tr) had moderate positive relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration.

Population dynamics and maturation cycle of Camallanus cotti (Nematoda : Camallanidae) in the Chinese hooksnout carp Opsariichthys bidens (Osteichthyes : Cyprinidae) from a reservoir in China

The seasonal population dynamics and maturation cycle of the nematode Camallanus cotti in the posterior intestine of Chinese hooksnout carp Opsariichthys bidens have been studied in the Danjiangkou Reservoir of the Hubei Province in central China from September 2004 to November, 2005. The overall prevalence, mean abundance and intensity of C cotti among fish sampled (n = 700 fish) were 47%, 2.29 +/- 12.38 ( +/- S.D.) and 1-307 (average 4.89 +/- 17.74), respectively. The overall sexual ratio of female to male nematodes (excluding L3 and L4 juveniles) was 1.17:1. Statistical results showed weakly positive correlations betweerl fish length and the number of nematodes per host. The dynamics of infection of the nematode exhibited significant seasonal pattern in changes in mean abundance. A similar pattern was found for changes in nematode prevalence, although this was not statistically significant. Higher levels of infection were observed among fish sampled in summer months and the lower in the winter. Neither the prevalence nor the abundance of the parasite was significantly different between male and female hosts. The pattern of frequency distribution of the parasite in the host was found to be over-dispersed throughout the sampling period. In addition, studies on the development and maturation of the parasite in O. bidens revealed that development (maturation), recruitment of the next generation, and reproduction may be continuous year-round, although reproduction may peak during the winter. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics of the water mite Unionicola arcuata (Unionicolidae) in the freshwater bivalve Cristaria plicata (Unionidae) in Poyang Lake, eastern China

Population dynamics of the water mite Unionicola arcuata were investigated in the freshwater bivalve Cristaria plicata during the period from January to December 2002 in Poyang Lake, East China. A pattern of seasonal variation was observed, with prevalence and abundance peaking in early spring and autumn. The number of mites in individual hosts was significantly correlated with the size, but not with the sex, of bivalves. The change in infection level of mites on different infection sites in C. plicata was significant, with > 58% of the mites found on the outer and inner gills, indicating that U. arcuata shows site preference.

Seasonal population dynamics of parasitic copepods, Sinergasilus spp. on farmed fish in China

Seasonal population dynamics of parasitic copepods in the genus Sinergasilus on fanned silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix, farmed bighead carp Aristichthys nobilis, and grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idellus were investigated in China. Changes in prevalence and abundance were seasonal with higher levels observed in summer. Reproduction of the copepods occurs from spring to early autumn as indicated by the higher ratio of gravid copepods. The frequency distribution of Sinergasilus polycolpus and S. major in their host populations can be fitted well with negative binomial distribution. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics and responses to management of plateau pikas Ochotona curzoniae

1. Plateau pikas Ochotona curzoniae are considered a pest species on the Tibetan Plateau because they compete with livestock for forage and their burrowing could contribute to soil erosion. The effectiveness of pest control programmes in Tibet has not been measured, and it is not known whether changes in livestock management have exacerbated problems with plateau pikas or compromised their control. This study measured the impact of control programmes and livestock management for forage conservation on populations of plateau pikas in alpine meadow in Naqu District, central Tibet, during 2004 and 2005.2. Current techniques for controlling plateau pikas in spring cause large reductions in abundance, but high density-dependent rates of increase result in no differences between treated and untreated populations by the following autumn. Rates of increase from spring to autumn are not influenced by standing plant biomass or concurrent grazing by yaks Bos grunniens and Tibetan sheep Ovis aries.3. In autumn there was significantly lower biomass outside fenced areas with year-round livestock grazing compared with inside fenced areas with equivalent or higher numbers of plateau pikas but predominantly winter grazing by livestock. Inside fenced areas, control of plateau pikas in spring produced no detectable effect on standing plant biomass at the end of the following summer compared with uncontrolled populations of plateau pikas.4. Regardless of their initial density, populations of plateau pikas declined rapidly over winter outside fenced areas where there was very low standing plant biomass in autumn. However, inside fenced areas with higher plant biomass in autumn, low-density populations of plateau pikas declined more slowly than high-density populations.5. Synthesis and applications. Current control programmes have limited effect because populations of plateau pikas can recover in one breeding season. There was no apparent increase in forage production in areas where plateau pikas were controlled. However, plateau pikas appear to benefit from changes in grazing management, with low-density populations declining less over winter inside fenced areas than elsewhere. It was not evident that control programmes are warranted or that they will improve the livelihoods of Tibetan herders.

Bayesian inference of population expansions in domestic bovines

< p > The past population dynamics of four domestic and one wild species of bovine were estimated using Bayesian skyline plots, a coalescent Markov chain Monte Carlo method that does not require an assumed parametric model of demographic history. Four dom

Modeling phytoplankton dynamics in the River Darling (Australia) using the radial basis function neural network

A radial basis function neural network was employed to model the abundance of cyanobacteria. The trained network could predict the populations of two bloom forming algal taxa with high accuracy, Nostocales spp. and Anabaena spp., in the River Darling, Australia. To elucidate the population dynamics for both Nostocales spp. and Anabaena spp., sensitivity analysis was performed with the following results. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen had a very strong influence on the abundance of the two algal taxa, electrical conductivity had a very strong negative relationship with the population of the two algal species, and flow was identified as one dominant factor influencing algal blooms after a scatter plot revealed that high flow could significantly reduce the algal biomass for both Nostocales spp. and Anabaena spp. Other variables such as turbidity, color, and pH were less important in determining the abundance and succession of the algal blooms.

Seasonal dynamics and distribution of the digenean Phyllodistomum pawlovskii (Trematoda : Gorgoderidae) in the bullhead catfish, Pseudobagrus fulvidraco, in a lake of China

Seasonal population dynamics of the digenean Phyllodistomum pawlovskii in the urinary bladder of the bullhead catfish, Pseudobagrus fulvidraco, were investigated in Liangzi Lake in the flood plain of the Yangtze River in China from February 2001 to July 2002. The overall prevalence of the parasite was high, 41.5% (n = 1,476), while the mean abundance was relatively low, 1.24 +/- 2.11. The parasite exhibited evident seasonality in changes of prevalence and abundance. In brief, prevalence and abundance were very low in midwinter (January), but increased and remained relatively high in other seasons and months. The distribution pattern of this parasite in the fish was overdispersed, with a variance to mean ratio > 1, but its frequency distribution could not be described by the negative binomial model. There were positive correlations between the number of the parasites per fish and the age and length of the fish; a peaked age-parasite abundance curve was not detected in the parasite-host association. It is suggested that the parasite P. pawlovskii has little effect on the population structure of the bullhead catfish.

Otolith characteristics and age determination of an endemic Ptychobarbus dipogon (Regan, 1905) (Cyprinidae: Schizothoracinae) in the Yarlung Tsangpo River, Tibet

We describe the microincrements, checks and annuli in the lapilli of the schizothoracine Ptychobarbus dipogon, an endemic species of the Tibetan plateau. We collected samples in the Yarlung Tsangpo River and its tributaries on a monthly basis (from April 2004 to August 2006). We describe the shape features of the three pairs of otoliths and document the full trajectory of lapillus development. We found that five to seven checks were clearly visible in the opaque zone of the first annulus. The pattern of 21-23 daily growth increments within each check might be explained as a lunar-induced deposition. We counted between 137 and 154 increments within the first annulus. Annuli appeared as a sequence of gradually declining increment widths, whereas false rings were characterized by abrupt checks. Our oldest estimates were 23(+)years for males and 44(+) for females. The time of annulus completion was clearly between March and April each year using monthly marginal increments analysis. We consider the factors responsible for daily increment formation as an endogenous circadian rhythm. Environmental information, such as strong sunlight and cold water temperatures in the Tibetan Plateau, could reinforce the endogenous daily cycle. Our results provided important data addressing the ecology and population dynamics of P. dipogon.

Seasonal occurrence of Dollfustrema vaneyi (Digenea : Bucephalidae) metacercariae in the bullhead catfish Pseudobagrus fulvidraco in a reservoir in China

The seasonal population dynamics of metacercariae of the bucephalid Dollfustrema vaneyi (Tseng, 1930) Echmann, 1934 in the bullhead catfish Pseudobagrus fulvidraco (Richardson) were investigated in Jiangkou reservoir, Jiangxi Province, east China, during the period from April 1990 to August 1991. In total, 523 fish were obtained, and the overall prevalence of the metacercariae was 89.87 % and mean abundance 136.25 +/- 308.09 (mean +/- SD). A pattern of seasonal changes in prevalence and mean abundance was observed, with higher levels of metacercariae infection in late spring and summer. An analysis of the distribution of D. vaneyi in different organs of P. fulvidraco suggested that the eyes might be a suitable location for the parasite. Furthermore, the possible role of metacercariae in bullhead catfish was discussed in relation to the life cycle of this parasite.

Effect of available food and temperature on the growth and reproduction of Daphnia rosea

Population parameters of Daphnia rosea were studied at various concentrations of Chlorella sp. (0.25, 0.75 and 3.0 mg C l(-1)) at several temperatures (20, 25, 28, and 30 degrees C) in the laboratory. Although there were some differences in the degrees of the effects of the various temperature-food combinations, both food and temperature exerted influences on almost all of the main population parameters of D. rosea. At a water temperature of 28 degrees C, growth and reproduction were reduced, and at the lowest food level (0.25 mgC l(-1)), reproduction failed. D, rosea did not survive at 30 degrees C in spite of abundant food supply, indicating that 30 degrees C is a physiological limit. A positive relationship between body length and brood size was recognized at high and medium food levels. The slope of the regression was the highest at the highest food level and at the lowest temperature (20 degrees C). The low food level exerted a negative influence on the net reproductive rate by lowering the size of egg-bearing females, by decreasing the brood size of each size class, by decreasing the brood number per female, and by increasing the period of empty brood chamber. High water temperature (28 degrees C) also exerted a negative influence on the net reproductive rate in a similar way. For the better understanding of the key factors driving the midsummer dynamics of daphnids in the field, it may be of crucial importance to compare the population parameters of the field populations with experimentally derived values under controlled conditions of food concentration and temperature.

Studies on the biology of Chaoborus flavicans (Meigen) (Diptera : Chaoboridae) in a fish-free eutrophic pond, Japan

Population dynamics of Chaoborus flavicans larvae of various instars was studied from November 1986 to December 1987 in a eutrophic, fish-free pond, Japan. First and 2nd instar larvae were observed from late April to late October, indicating a reproductive period of about half a year. C. flavicans overwintered in the 4th instar larvae. In water column samples, total density of all instars was 680-23 680 m(-2), and pupal density 0-2 600 m(-2); larvae of the Ist, 2nd, and 3rd instars showed 5-6 density peaks in 1987, suggesting that 5-6 generations occur during a year (peaks of the 4th instar larvae were not clear, probably due to their longer development than those of younger instars). In sediment samples, no Ist and 2nd instar larvae were found, 3rd instar larvae were found occasionally but density of the 4th instar larvae was 280-18 600 m(-2), and pupal density varied between 0-502 m(-2). Fouth instar larvae accumulated in sediment in the cold season and in the water column in the warm season; high temperature and low oxygen concentration were the most important factors limiting the distribution of larvae in the sediment in summer in the NIES pond. The dry weight of total C. flavicans larvae was 0.08-4.2 g m(-2) in sediment samples and 24-599 mu g l(-1) (0.10-2.40 g m(-2)) in water column samples. Comparisons of maximum densities in the NIES pond in different years and in waters of different trophic status show that density is generally higher in eutrophic than in oligotrophic habitats.

Changes in the structure of a zooplankton community during a Ceratium (dinoflagellate) bloom in a eutrophic fishless pond

The community structure of zooplankton was studied in a eutrophic, fishless Japanese pond. The ecosystem was dominated by a dinoflagellate, Ceratium hirundinella, two filter-feeding cladocerans, Daphnia rosea and Ceriodaphnia reticulata, and an invertebrate predator, the dipteran Chaoborus flavicans. The midsummer zooplankton community showed a large change in species composition (the Daphnia population crashed) when a heavy Ceratium bloom occurred. It is shown that (i) the rapid density decline of D.rosea in mid-May was mainly caused by a shortage of edible phytoplankton, which was facilitated by the rapid increase in C.hirundinella abundance; (ii) the low density of D.rosea in June-July was considered to be mainly caused by the blooming of Ceratium hirundinella (which may inhibit the feeding process of D.rosea), while predation by C.flavicans larvae, the changing temperature, the interspecific competition and the scarcity of edible algae were not judged to be important; (iii) the high summer biomass of the planktonic C.flavicans larvae was maintained by the bloom of C.hirundinella, because >90% of the crop contents of C.flavicans larvae were C.hirundinella during this period. The present study indicates that the large-sized cells or colonies of phytoplankton are not only inedible by most cladocerans, but the selective effect of the blooming of these algae can also influence the composition and dominance of the zooplankton community, especially for the filter-feeding Cladocera, in a similar way as the selective predation by planktivorous fish. The large-sized phytoplankton can also be an important alternative food for ominivorous invertebrate predators such as Chaoborus larvae, and thus may affect the interactions between these predators and their zooplanktonic prey. In this way, such phytoplankton may play a very important role in regulating the dynamics of the aquatic food web, and become a driving force in shaping the community structure of zooplankton.