随机系统模型参数在线辨识的一种算法及负荷预报

本文提出了一种简化的多变量随机系统状态模型参数在线辨识方法。与最小二乘自适应递推算法比较,不仅需要辨识的参数减少,而且针对一类模型参数缓慢变化的系统,可以通过选择不同的遗忘因子序列来控制参数变化的幅度,解决了电力系统负荷预报中季节模型的老化问题。本方法基于带有随机噪声状态模型的典范型,大大节省了计算机的运算量和存贮容量,适于微处理机的在线应用。

基于MRF模型的油气储层属性随机建模方法研究

Stochastic reservoir modeling is a technique used in reservoir describing. Through this technique, multiple data sources with different scales can be integrated into the reservoir model and its uncertainty can be conveyed to researchers and supervisors. Stochastic reservoir modeling, for its digital models, its changeable scales, its honoring known information and data and its conveying uncertainty in models, provides a mathematical framework or platform for researchers to integrate multiple data sources and information with different scales into their prediction models. As a fresher method, stochastic reservoir modeling is on the upswing. Based on related works, this paper, starting with Markov property in reservoir, illustrates how to constitute spatial models for catalogued variables and continuum variables by use of Markov random fields. In order to explore reservoir properties, researchers should study the properties of rocks embedded in reservoirs. Apart from methods used in laboratories, geophysical means and subsequent interpretations may be the main sources for information and data used in petroleum exploration and exploitation. How to build a model for flow simulations based on incomplete information is to predict the spatial distributions of different reservoir variables. Considering data source, digital extent and methods, reservoir modeling can be catalogued into four sorts: reservoir sedimentology based method, reservoir seismic prediction, kriging and stochastic reservoir modeling. The application of Markov chain models in the analogue of sedimentary strata is introduced in the third of the paper. The concept of Markov chain model, N-step transition probability matrix, stationary distribution, the estimation of transition probability matrix, the testing of Markov property, 2 means for organizing sections-method based on equal intervals and based on rock facies, embedded Markov matrix, semi-Markov chain model, hidden Markov chain model, etc, are presented in this part. Based on 1-D Markov chain model, conditional 1-D Markov chain model is discussed in the fourth part. By extending 1-D Markov chain model to 2-D, 3-D situations, conditional 2-D, 3-D Markov chain models are presented. This part also discusses the estimation of vertical transition probability, lateral transition probability and the initialization of the top boundary. Corresponding digital models are used to specify, or testify related discussions. The fifth part, based on the fourth part and the application of MRF in image analysis, discusses MRF based method to simulate the spatial distribution of catalogued reservoir variables. In the part, the probability of a special catalogued variable mass, the definition of energy function for catalogued variable mass as a Markov random field, Strauss model, estimation of components in energy function are presented. Corresponding digital models are used to specify, or testify, related discussions. As for the simulation of the spatial distribution of continuum reservoir variables, the sixth part mainly explores 2 methods. The first is pure GMRF based method. Related contents include GMRF model and its neighborhood, parameters estimation, and MCMC iteration method. A digital example illustrates the corresponding method. The second is two-stage models method. Based on the results of catalogued variables distribution simulation, this method, taking GMRF as the prior distribution for continuum variables, taking the relationship between catalogued variables such as rock facies, continuum variables such as porosity, permeability, fluid saturation, can bring a series of stochastic images for the spatial distribution of continuum variables. Integrating multiple data sources into the reservoir model is one of the merits of stochastic reservoir modeling. After discussing how to model spatial distributions of catalogued reservoir variables, continuum reservoir variables, the paper explores how to combine conceptual depositional models, well logs, cores, seismic attributes production history.

Parameter-estimation of a spherical top inductively-coupled plasma source with global-model

Using spatially averaged global model, we succeed in obtaining some plasma parameters for a low pressure inductively coupled plasma source of our laboratory. As far as the global balance is concerned, the models can give reasonable results of the parameters, such as the global electron temperature and the ion impacting energy, etc. It is found that the ion flow is hardly affected by the neutral gas pressure. Finally, the magnetic effects are calculated by means of the method. The magnetic field can play an important role to increase plasma density and ion current.

Estimation of Correlation Distance of Soil Properties by Geostatistics

Random field theory has been used to model the spatial average soil properties, whereas the most widely used, geostatistics, on which also based a common basis (covariance function) has been successfully used to model and estimate natural resource since 1960s. Therefore, geostistics should in principle be an efficient way to model soil spatial variability Based on this, the paper presents an alternative approach to estimate the scale of fluctuation or correlation distance of a soil stratum by geostatistics. The procedure includes four steps calculating experimental variogram from measured data, selecting a suited theoretical variogram model, fitting the theoretical one to the experimental variogram, taking the parameters within the theoretical model obtained from optimization into a simple and finite correlation distance 6 relationship to the range a. The paper also gives eight typical expressions between a and b. Finally, a practical example was presented for showing the methodology.

Estimation of frequency response of directly modulated lasers from optical spectra

A simple method for estimating the frequency responses of directly modulated lasers from optical spectra is presented. The frequency-modulation index and intensity-modulation index of a distributed feedback laser can be obtained through the optical spectrum analyses. The main advantage is that the measurement setup is very simple. Only a microwave source and an optical spectrum analyser are needed and there is no need to use a calibrated broadband photodetector. Experiment shows that the proposed method is as accurate as the swept frequency method using a network analyzer and is applicable to a wide range of modulation powers.

Potential frequency bandwidth estimation of TO packaging techniques for photodiode modules

Scattering parameters of photodiode chip, TO header and TO packaged module are measured, and the effects of TO packaging network on the high-frequency response of photodiode are investigated. Based on the analysis, the potential bandwidth of TO packaging techniques is estimated from the scattering parameters of the TO packaging network. Another method for estimating the potential bandwidth from the equivalent circuit for the TO packaged photodiode model is also presented. The results obtained using both methods show that the TO packaging techniques used in the experiments can potentially achieve a frequency bandwidth of 22 GHz.

Emittance estimation by an ion optical element with variable focusing strength and a viewing target

The emittance of an extracted ion beam can be estimated to first order by a series of three linear independent profile measurements. This estimation is restricted to the evaluation of an upper limit of the emittance value for a homogeneous, nonfilamented beam. The beam is assumed to be round, respectively elliptical, without any structure of the intensity distribution, no space charge has been assumed for the drifting beam, and the optics is assumed to be linear. Instead of using three different drift sections, a linear focusing element with three different focusing strengths can be used. Plotting the beam radius as function of focusing strength, three independent solutions can be used to calculate the Twiss parameters alpha, beta, and gamma and furthermore the emittance epsilon. Here we describe the measurements which have been performed with the SECRAL ion source at Institute of Modern Physics Lanzhou.

Using HPLC retention parameters to estimate fish bioconcentration factors of organic compounds

Reversed-phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) was employed to develop predictive models for fish bioconcentration factors (BCF) of organic compounds. Estimation of BCF from RP-HPLC retention parameters on octadecyl-bonded silica gel (ODS), cyanopropyl-bonded silica gel (CN), and phenyl-bonded silica gel (Ph) columns were investigated. The results show that, for a set of compounds belonging to different chemical classes, the CN stationary phase is the best one among the three columns and better than n-octanol/water model for BCF estimation. A multi-column RP-HPLC model, using the retention parameters on the CN and Ph columns as the variables of multiple linear regression equations, was further evaluated to estimate BCF of organic compounds belonging to different chemical classes, and the results show that the multi-column RP-HPLC model is better than that of any single RP-HPLC column for BCF estimation.

Estimation thermal expansion coefficient from lattice energy for inorganic crystals

By using the study of the lattice energy and the structural parameters of binary inorganic crystals, a new parameter reflecting the thermal expansion property has been found, the relation between the linear expansion coefficient and new parameter has been established. A semiempirical method for evaluation of linear expansion coefficient from the lattice energy is presented, and developed to the complex crystals. The estimated values of the linear expansion coefficients of both simple and complex crystals are in good agreement with the experimental values.

Lattice energy estimation for inorganic ionic crystals

An empirical method based on chemical bond theory for the estimation of the lattice energy for ionic crystals has been proposed. The lattice energy contributions have been partitioned into bond dependent terms. For an individual bond, the lattice energy contribution made by it has been separated into ionic and covalent parts. Our calculated values of lattice energies agree well with available experimental and theoretical values for diverse ionic crystals. This method, which requires detailed crystallographic information and elaborate computation, might be extended and possibly yield further insights with respect to bond properties of materials.

Theoretical estimation of thermodynamic properties of the system PS/PPO on the basis of modified combining rule of Sanchez-Lacombe lattice fluid model

The three scaling parameters described in Sanchez-Lacombe lattice fluid theory (SLLFT), T*, P* and rho* of pure polystyrene (PS), pure poly(2,6-dimethyl-1,4-phenylene oxide) (PPO) and their mixtures are obtained by fitting corresponding experimental pressure volume-temperature data with equation-of-state of SLLFT. A modified combining rule in SLLFT used to match the volume per mer, v* of the PS/PPO mixtures was advanced and the enthalpy of mixing and Flory-Huggins (FH) interaction parameter were calculated using the new rule. It is found that the difference between the new rule and the old one presented by Sanchez and Lacombe is quite small in the calculation of the enthalpy of mixing and FH interaction parameter and the effect of volume-combining rule on the calculation of thermodynamic properties is much smaller than that of energy-combining rule. But the relative value of interaction parameter changes much due to the new volume-based combining rule. This effect can affect the position of phase diagram very much, which is reported elsewhere [Macromolecules 34 (2001) 6291]

Modern spectral estimation of ICP-AES

The inductively coupled plasma atomic emission, spectrometry (ICP-AES) and its signal characteristics were discussed using modem spectral estimation technique. The power spectra density (PSD) was calculated using the auto-regression (AR) model of modem spectra estimation. The Levinson-Durbin recursion method was used to estimate the model parameters which were used for the PSD computation. The results obtained with actual ICP-AES spectra and measurements showed that the spectral estimation technique was helpful for the better understanding about spectral composition and signal characteristics.

ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-PHASE STRUCTURE SEMINVARIANTS IN THE SINGLE ISOMORPHOUS REPLACEMENT CASE - AN APPLICATION OF HAUPTMANS DISTRIBUTION

A method for estimating the one-phase structure seminvariants (OPSSs) having values of 0 or pi has been proposed on the basis of the probabilistic theory of the three-phase structure invariants for a pair of isomorphous structures [Hauptman (1982). Acta Cryst. A38, 289-294]. The test calculations using error-free diffraction data of protein cytochrome c(550) and its PtCl42- derivative show that reliable estimates of a number of the OPSSs can be obtained. The reliability of the estimation increases with the increase of the differences between diffraction intensities of the native protein and its heavy-atom derivative. A means to estimate the parameters of the distribution from the diffraction ratio is suggested.

Analysis of the sea-level variability along the Chinese coast and estimation of the impact of a CO2-perturbed atmospheric circulation

The relationship between monthly sea-level data measured at stations located along the Chinese coast and concurrent large-scale atmospheric forcing in the period 1960-1990 is examined. It is found that sea-level varies quite coherently along the whole coast, despite the geographical extension of the station set. A canonical correlation analysis between sea-level and sea-level pressure (SLP) indicates that a great part of the sea-level variability can be explained by the action of the wind stress on the ocean surface. The relationship between sea-level and sea-level pressure is analyzed separately for the summer and winter half-years. In winter, one factor affecting sea-level variability at all stations is the SLP contrast between the continent and the Pacific Ocean, hence the intensity of the winter Monsoon circulation. Another factor that affects coherently all stations is the intensity of the zonal circulation at mid-latitudes. In the summer half year, on the other hand, the influence of SLP on sea-level is spatially less coherent: the stations in the Yellow Sea are affected by a more localized circulation anomaly pattern, whereas the rest of the stations is more directly connected to the intensity of the zonal circulation. Based on this analysis, statistical models (different for summer and winter) to hindcast coastal sealevel anomalies from the large-scale SLP field are formulated. These models have been tested by fitting their internal parameters in a test period and reproducing reasonably the sea-level evolution in an independent period. These statistical models are also used to estimate the contribution of the changes of the atmospheric circulation on sea-level along the Chinese coast in an altered climate. For this purpose the ouput of 150 year-long experiment with the coupled ocean-atmosphere model ECHAM1-LSG has been analyzed, in which the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was continuously increased from 1940 until 2090, according to the Scenario A projection of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. In this experiment the meridional (zonal) circulation relevant for sea-level tends to become weaker (stronger) in the winter half year and stronger (weaker) in summer. The estimated contribution of this atmospheric circulation changes to coastal sea-level is of the order of a few centimeters at the end of the integration, being in winter negative in the Yellow Sea and positive in the China Sea with opposite signs in the summer half-year.

A new method for the estimation of oceanic mixed-layer depth using shipboard X-band radar images

Shipboard X-band radar images acquired on 24 June 2009 are used to study nonlinear internal wave characteristics in the northeastern South China Sea. The studied images show three nonlinear internal waves in a packet. A method based on the Radon Transform technique is introduced to calculate internal wave parameters such as the direction of propagation and internal wave velocity from backscatter images. Assuming that the ocean is a two-layer finite depth system, we can derive the mixed-layer depth by applying the internal wave velocity to the mixed-layer depth formula. Results show reasonably good agreement with in-situ thermistor chain and conductivity-temperature-depth data sets.