A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model and ENSO prediction study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

Mixed-layer water oscillations in tropical Pacific for ENSO cycle

The main modes of interannal variabilities of thermocline and sea surface wind stress in the tropical Pacific and their interactions are investigated, which show the following results. (1) The thermocline anomalies in the tropical Pacific have a zonal dipole pattern with 160 W as its axis and a meridional seesaw pattern with 6-8 degrees N as its transverse axis. The meridional oscillation has a phase lag of about 90 to the zonal oscillation, both oscillations get together to form the El Nino/La Nina cycle, which behaves as a mixed layer water oscillates anticlockwise within the tropical Pacific basin between equator and 12 degrees N. (2) There are two main patterns of wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific, of which the first component caused by trade wind anomaly is characterized by the zonal wind stress anomalies and its corresponding divergences field in the equatorial Pacific, and the abnormal cross- equatorial flow wind stress and its corresponding divergence field, which has a sign opposite to that of the equatorial region, in the off-equator of the tropical North Pacific, and the second component represents the wind stress anomalies and corresponding divergences caused by the ITCZ anomaly. (3) The trade winds anomaly plays a decisive role in the strength and phase transition of the ENSO cycle, which results in the sea level tilting, provides an initial potential energy to the mixed layer water oscillation, and causes the opposite thermocline displacement between the west side and east side of the equator and also between the equator and 12 degrees N of the North Pacific basin, therefore determines the amplitude and route for ENSO cycle. The ITCZ anomaly has some effects on the phase transition. (4) The thermal anomaly of the tropical western Pacific causes the wind stress anomaly and extends eastward along the equator accompanied with the mixed layer water oscillation in the equatorial Pacific, which causes the trade winds anomaly and produces the anomalous wind stress and the corresponding divergence in favor to conduce the oscillation, which in turn intensifies the oscillation. The coupled system of ocean-atmosphere interactions and the inertia gravity of the mixed layer water oscillation provide together a phase-switching mechanism and interannual memory for the ENSO cycle. In conclusion, the ENSO cycle essentially is an inertial oscillation of the mixed layer water induced by both the trade winds anomaly and the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific basin between the equator and 12 degrees N. When the force produced by the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction is larger than or equal to the resistance caused by the mixed layer water oscillation, the oscillation will be stronger or maintain as it is, while when the force is less than the resistance, the oscillation will be weaker, even break.

Observation and modeling for terrestrial processes in alpine meadow

The water-heat transfer process between land and atmosphere in Haibei alpine meadow area has been systematically observed. A multi-layer coupling model for land-atmosphere interaction was presented with special attention paid to the moisture transfer in leaf stomata under unsaturated condition. A profound investigation on the physical process of turbulent transfer inside the vegetation has been performed with a revised formula of water absorption for root system. The present model facilitates the study of vertically distributed physical variables in detail. Numerical simulation was conducted according to the transfer process of Kinesia humility meadow in the area of Haibei Alpine Meadow Ecosystem Station, CAS. The calculated results agree well with observation.

考虑生物结皮影响的陆气湍流模式研究

在以前工作基础上，针对腾格里沙漠人工植被区陆气水热传输过程，提出了一个多层陆气耦合模式。特别给出了导水率的计算模型和修正后的根系吸水模式，考虑了结皮层对土壤水分入渗的影响以及植被演化的过程。陆面过程耦合模式分别对大气、植被、土壤作多层划分，以助于细致了解沿度分布的各物理量。同时，利用本模式对中国科学院沙坡头沙漠站人工植被区陆气水热交换过程进行了数值模拟，模拟结果与实测值吻合较好，可为当地合理利用水热资源和沙漠治理提供科学依据。

Evolution and variability of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Pliocene: Evidence from clay mineral records of the South China Sea

The Late Pliocene is thought to be characterized by the simultaneous intensification of both the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). However, the evolution of the EASM during the Pliocene remains still controversial and only little is known about the dynamics of the EASM during the Pliocene on orbital time scales. Here we use clay mineral assemblages in sediments from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea (SCS) to obtain proxy records of past changes in the EASM climate during the Pliocene. Provenance analysis suggests that illite, chlorite and kaolinite originated mainly from the Mekong River drainage area. Smectite was derived mainly from the Indonesian islands. The kaolinite/illite ratio and the chemical index of alteration (CIA) of siliciclastic sediments allowed us to reconstruct the history of chemical weathering and physical erosion of the Mekong River drainage area and thus, the evolution of,the EASM during the Pliocene. Our clay minerals proxy data suggests a stronger EASM during the Early Pliocene than during the Late Pliocene. We propose that the long-term evolution of the EASM has been driven by global cooling rather than the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. Spectral analysis of kaolinite/ illite ratio displays a set of strong periodicities at 100 ka, 30 ka, 28 ka, 25 ka, and 22 ka. with no clear obliquityrelated signal. Our study suggests that the Pliocene EASM intensity on orbital time scales is not only controlled by the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, but also strongly influenced by equatorial Pacific ENSO-like ocean atmosphere dynamics. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Analysis of the sea-level variability along the Chinese coast and estimation of the impact of a CO2-perturbed atmospheric circulation

The relationship between monthly sea-level data measured at stations located along the Chinese coast and concurrent large-scale atmospheric forcing in the period 1960-1990 is examined. It is found that sea-level varies quite coherently along the whole coast, despite the geographical extension of the station set. A canonical correlation analysis between sea-level and sea-level pressure (SLP) indicates that a great part of the sea-level variability can be explained by the action of the wind stress on the ocean surface. The relationship between sea-level and sea-level pressure is analyzed separately for the summer and winter half-years. In winter, one factor affecting sea-level variability at all stations is the SLP contrast between the continent and the Pacific Ocean, hence the intensity of the winter Monsoon circulation. Another factor that affects coherently all stations is the intensity of the zonal circulation at mid-latitudes. In the summer half year, on the other hand, the influence of SLP on sea-level is spatially less coherent: the stations in the Yellow Sea are affected by a more localized circulation anomaly pattern, whereas the rest of the stations is more directly connected to the intensity of the zonal circulation. Based on this analysis, statistical models (different for summer and winter) to hindcast coastal sealevel anomalies from the large-scale SLP field are formulated. These models have been tested by fitting their internal parameters in a test period and reproducing reasonably the sea-level evolution in an independent period. These statistical models are also used to estimate the contribution of the changes of the atmospheric circulation on sea-level along the Chinese coast in an altered climate. For this purpose the ouput of 150 year-long experiment with the coupled ocean-atmosphere model ECHAM1-LSG has been analyzed, in which the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was continuously increased from 1940 until 2090, according to the Scenario A projection of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. In this experiment the meridional (zonal) circulation relevant for sea-level tends to become weaker (stronger) in the winter half year and stronger (weaker) in summer. The estimated contribution of this atmospheric circulation changes to coastal sea-level is of the order of a few centimeters at the end of the integration, being in winter negative in the Yellow Sea and positive in the China Sea with opposite signs in the summer half-year.

Observation and modeling for terrestrial processes in alpine meadow

The water-heat transfer process between land and atmosphere in Haibei alpine meadow area has been systematically observed. A multi-layer coupling model for land-atmosphere interaction was presented with special attention paid to the moisture transfer in leaf stomata under unsaturated condition. A profound investigation on the physical process of turbulent transfer inside the vegetation has been performed with a revised formula of water absorption for root system. The present model facilitates the study of vertically distributed physical variables in detail. Numerical simulation was conducted according to the transfer process of Kinesia humility meadow in the area of Haibei Alpine Meadow Ecosystem Station, CAS. The calculated results agree well with observation.

中国北方风成堆积的风化作用与环境变迁—U-Th、~(10)Be及元素地球化学的研究

The surface of the Earth is continuously undergoing changes as a result of weathering-erosion, plate tectonics and volcanic processes. Continental weathering-erosion with its complex rock-water interactions is the central process of global biochemical cycling of elements, and affects the long-term ocean atmosphere budget of carbon dioxide both through the consumption of carbonic acid during silicate weathering and through changes in the weathering and burial rates of organic carbon. Rates of the weathering-erosion depend on a variety of factors, in particular rock properties and chemical composition, climate (especially rainfall), structure, and elevation. They are quite variable on a regional scale. Thus, environmental changes in a region could be indicated by the history of weathering-erosion in the region. Recent attention has focused on increased silicate weathering of tectonically uplifted areas in the India-Asia collision zone as a possible cause for falling atmospheric CO_2 levels in the Cenozoic era. The wind blown dust deposits in the Loess Plateau is derived from the arid and semiarid regions in northwestern China, in turn, where the deposits have been derived from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the high mountains around. Therefore, geochemistry of the wind blown loess-paleosol and red clay sequences may provide insight both to paleoenvironmental changes on the Loess Plateau, and to the uplift and weathering-erosion histories of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. In this paper, uranium-thorium series nuclides and cosmogenic ~(10)Be have been employed as tracers of weathering intensities and histories of the dust sediments in the Loess Plateau. Major elements, such as Na, Al, Fe etc., are also used to estimate degree of chemical alteration of the dust sediments and to rebuild the history of weathering on the Loess Plateau. First of all, using a low-level HPGe γ-ray detector, we measured U and Th series nuclides in 170 loess and paleosol samples from five sites in the Loess Plateau, going back 2.6 Ma. The results show that ~(238)U activities are disequilibrium with its daughter nuclide ~(230)Th in young loess-paleosol sequence, indicating that weathering was happened both in dust deposition site and in dust source regions. Using concentrations of ~(238)U and ~(232)Th in the samples, we estimated the amounts of ~(238)U leached out of from paleosols due to weathering. Further, based on analyses of ~(230)Th in paleosols deposited in the past ca. 140 ka, we determined when the paleosols weathered in the source regions. We conclude that most of the weathering in the dust-source regions may have occurred during the interglacials before dust deposition.

海流-管道-海床之间动力相互作用的量纲分析及实验模拟装置研制=Dimensional Analysis and Experimental Apparatus on Interaction between Ocean Current-Pipeline and Seabed

海底管道涡激振动和管道周围海床冲刷是海流--管道--海床之间复杂的动力耦合问题.文章应用量纲分析方法对海流、管道与海床之间的动力耦合作用进行了分析,确定了在实验模拟中应遵循的相似准则.在此基础上,研制了一套能模拟海流、海床与海底管道之间相互作用的实验模拟装置.初步实验结果表明文中研制的实验模拟装置能够模拟典型海洋环境下海底管道的涡激振动和管道周围海床冲刷等问题.

Progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies in China

This paper summarizes the progress of large-scale air-sea interaction studies that has been achieved in China in the four-year period from July 1998 to July 2002, including seven aspects in the area of the air-sea interaction, namely air-sea interaction related to the tropical Pacific Ocean, monsoon-related air-sea interaction, air-sea interaction in the north Pacific Ocean, air-sea interaction in the Indian Ocean, air-sea interactions in the global oceans, field experiments, and oceanic cruise surveys. However more attention has been paid to the first and the second aspects because a large number of papers in the reference literature for preparing and organizing this paper are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, such as the ENSO process with its climatic effects and dynamics, and the monsoon-related air-sea interaction. The literature also involves various phenomena with their different time and spatial scales such as intraseasonal, annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities in the atmosphere/ocean interaction system, reflecting the contemporary themes in the four-year period at the beginning of an era from the post-TOGA to CLIVAR studies. Apparently, it is a difficult task to summarize the great progress in this area, as it is extracted from a large quantity of literature, although the authors tried very hard.

Interaction of linear waves with an array of infinitely long horizontal circular cylinders in a two-layer fluid of infinite depth

The linear water wave scattering and radiation by an array of infinitely long horizontal circular cylinders in a two-layer fluid of infinite depth is investigated by use of the multipole expansion method. The diffracted and radiated potentials are expressed as a linear combination of infinite multipoles placed at the centre of each cylinder with unknown coefficients to be determined by the cylinder boundary conditions. Analytical expressions for wave forces, hydrodynamic coefficients, reflection and transmission coefficients and energies are derived. Comparisons are made between the present analytical results and those obtained by the boundary element method, and some examples are presented to illustrate the hydrodynamic behavior of multiple horizontal circular cylinders in a two-layer fluid. It is found that for two submerged circular cylinders the influence of the fluid density ratio on internal-mode wave forces is more appreciable than surface-mode wave forces, and the periodic oscillations of hydrodynamic results occur with the increase of the distance between two cylinders; for four submerged circular cylinders the influence of adding two cylinders on the wave forces of the former cylinders is small in low and high wave frequencies, but the influence is appreciable in intermediate wave frequencies.

Interaction of linear waves with infinitely long horizontal cylinders studied by boundary element method

The two-dimensional problems concerning the interaction of linear water waves with cylinders of arbitrary shape in two-layer deep water are investigated by use of the Boundary Integral Equation method (BIEM). Simpler new expressions for the Green functions are derived, and verified by comparison of results obtained by BIEM with these by an analytical method. Examined are the radiation and scattering of linear waves by two typical configurations of cylinders in two-layer deep water. Hydrodynamic behaviors including hydrodynamic coefficients, wave forces, reflection and transmission coefficients and energies are analyzed in detail, and some interesting physical phenomena are observed.