Uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China: a comparison between an AVHRR-derived dataset and a Landsat TM-derived dataset

The large uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China may have significant implications for major cross-cutting themes of global environmental change-food production and trade, water resources, and the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Many earlier studies have indicated significant under-reporting of cropland area in China from official agricultural census statistics datasets. Space-borne remote sensing analyses provide an alternative and independent approach for estimating cropland area in China. In this study, we report estimates of cropland area from the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD-96) at the 1:100,000 scale, which was generated by a multi-year National Land Cover Project in China through visual interpretation and digitization of Landsat TM images acquired mostly in 1995 and 1996. We compared the NLCD-96 dataset to another land cover dataset at I-km spatial resolution (the IGBP DIScover dataset version 2.0), which was generated from monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from April, 1992 to March, 1993. The data comparison highlighted the limitation and uncertainty of cropland area estimates from the DIScover dataset. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

企业经营风险决策的组织行为学研究

This thesis has investigated the risk preferences of the Chinese company managers in kinds of simulated decision situations and their perceptions of risk concerning types of business decisions. Four studies are conducted: Study I is utility analysis. 214 company managers and 46 middle - school headmasters have responded to Utility Measurement Survey. The results indicate: (1) The risk preferences of the managers vary in the different decision situations. In most of the situations, most of the managers are risk aversion; In few situations, they are risk-seeking. (2) In some of the decision situations, there are significant differences on risk preference between business managers and school headmasters, male managers and female managers, senior managers and junior managers, managers with high qualifications and managers with low qualifications, non-state-owned firms' managers and state-owned firms' managers, medium-small sized firms' managers and large-sized firms' managers. In the other situations there aren't significant differences between them. (3) In all of the decision situations, so significant differences on risk preference are found among managers with different marriage, experience, age and education. Study II is risky decision simulation. The Risky Decision Situations Simulation Survey is administered to 82 company managers. The result indicates that firm culture, business condition, survival limit and risk preference of the superior influence the managers' risk decision-making behavior. Study III is perceptions of business decision risks. 68 company managers have filled in Decision Cases Risk Perception Inventory. The results indicate: (1) Inaccurate market analysis and prediction, instable politics and the changes of economic policy are the more risky elements to strategy decision. (2) Erroneous market analysis and prediction, appearance of new technology and the changes of market demands are the more risky elements to investment decision. (3) Poor quality control, backward technology and too large stocks are the more risky elements to production decision. (4) Shortage of development fund, wrong choice in development project and limitation of the development ability are the more risky elements to new production development decision. (5) No payment of the foreign partner's capital, the changes of national relevant policy, difficulty in marketing, too high selling prices of foreign partner's equipments are the more risky elements to joint-venture decision. (6) Unfamilarity with oneself and misjudgement in qualification of oneself are the more risky elements to personnel decision. (7) Bad market of the product, defects in product quality and the changes of consumers demands are the more risky elements to marketing decision. (8) Wrong strategy and ambiguous goals are the more risky elements to public relation decision. (9) Violation of the law, ambiguous goals and poor creation are the more risky elements to advertisement decision. (10) Deterioration of diplomatic relations, unsuitable products for foreign consumers and unfamilarity with foreign market are the more risky elements to international business decision. Study IV is structured interview. 5 company managers have answered all questions of the Interview Questionnaire. The results indicate: (1) The managers think that risks are the possible unfavourable consequences of decisions; (2) The self-ratings of the managers coordinate with the results of utility measurement; (3) The managers admit that risks always accompany bussiness decision; (4) Individual difference is found among managers on risk perception. This thesis has also pointed out the important implications of the research and discussed several further questions.

Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the "Grain for Green" policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of "Western Development", "Revitalization of Northeast", coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.

The influence of topography and land use on water quality of Xiangxi River in Three Gorges Reservoir region

A self-organizing map (SOM) was used to cluster the water quality data of Xiangxi River in the Three Gorges Reservoir region. The results showed that 81 sampling sites could be divided into several groups representing different land use types. The forest dominated region had low concentrations of most nutrient variables except COD, whereas the agricultural region had high concentrations of NO3N, TN, Alkalinity, and Hardness. The sites downstream of an urban area were high in NH3N, NO2N, PO4P and TP. Redundancy analysis was used to identify the individual effects of topography and land use on river water quality. The results revealed that the watershed factors accounted for 61.7% variations of water quality in the Xiangxi River. Specifically, topographical characteristics explained 26.0% variations of water quality, land use explained 10.2%, and topography and land use together explained 25.5%. More than 50% of the variation in most water quality variables was explained by watershed characteristics. However, water quality variables which are strongly influenced by urban and industrial point source pollution (NH3N, NO2N, PO4P and TP) were not as well correlated with watershed characteristics.

高寒湿地自然保护区多核心动态分区研究——以四川若尔盖湿地国家级自然保护区为例

中国拥有92466 Km2的各类高原湿地，具有湿地退化、过度放牧等相似特征，保护与利用矛盾突出。高寒湿地保护区尽管在制度上以核心区、缓冲区来约束当地的放牧等外来干扰行为，但在实际管理中却不能起到应有的作用。 本研究以四川若尔盖湿地国家级自然保护区为例，应用3S技术，建立保护区多功能动态分区工作流模型，通过不同植被类型的识别和空间特征分析、不同动物类群在上述植被生境中的时空分布特征分析、保护区主要干扰因素的时空分布特征分析，突出对保护区主要保护对象（湿地生态系统）的保护，对保护区进行管理分区，依据野生动物利用特征和植被生长特征对核心区进行年周期动态利用，缓解保护与发展的矛盾，促进保护区的优化管理。 应用归一化植被指数（NDVI）与植被盖度的相关性，将归一化植被指数（NDVI）转化为植被盖度指数（MDVI），结合保护区牧场划分和时空利用特征专家经验，结果表明，MDVI值在1-139之间主要代表着水体、裸地、沙地等；MDVI140-256为草地和高山灌丛；MDVI210是当地夏牧场和秋冬牧场的划分区间值。 合理的区划需要资金、技术和政策的支持，为保证保护区多核心动态分区的实施，本研究提出了生态工程、牧业发展方式转变、湿地特色产业发展、湿地政策、社区参与和科技支撑等六大保障措施。 In China, 92466 Km2 highland or frigid wetlands are (were) facing major management problems, such as wetland degradation and overgazing. Conflict between conservation and utilization on those wetlands can be found anywhere today. Although many nature reserves have been setup for protection of frigid wetland, and core and buffer zone has been declared to forbid any kinds of disturbance, local farmers still use these areas for grazing. As an example by Sichuan Roige Wetlands National Nature Reserve(SRWNRR), we set up a 3S flow model to analyze the character of year-round distribution patters of vegetation, wildlife, and grazing. Combined and overlapped these characters together, we select multi-core zone and buffer zone, then define a dynamic management period in different zone to optimize protection wetland in the reserve. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index（NDVI）is highly related with coverage of vegetation. When convert NDVI to MDVI (coverage index, 1-256), index 139 and 210 can be as inflexion to distinguish among water/sand/bared land, summer pasture, and autumn / winter pasture. We use these to select different layers and analyze grazing pattern. To be more realistic, we put forward some strategies to support our multi-core and dynamic management of wetland in Roige, including ecological restoration engineering, changing of stock raising industry, changing of wetland policy, community based management and technology renovation supports.

中国西部退耕还林基本策略研究

21世纪,生态危机成为人类面临的最大威胁,森林作为陆地生态系统的主体,自然成为世人瞩目的集点.由于中国西部水土流失、土地沙化、水资源紧张、生物多样性锐减等问题越来越突出,给人民的生活与国民经济发展造成巨大损失.退耕还林成为中华民族生存与发展的根本大计,这不仅关系到当代人的生存与发展,而且关系到子孙后代的生存与发展.文章在上述背景下,提出了符合中国实际的对策,供决策部门参考.

A methodology of characterizing status and trend of land changes in oases: A case study of Sangong River watershed, Xinjiang, China

National Natural Science Foundation of China [40471134]; program of Lights of the West China by the Chinese Academy of Science

Assessing the consequence of land use change on agricultural productivity in China

China's cultivated land has been undergoing dramatic changes along with its rapidly growing economy and population. The impacts of land use transformation on food production at the national scale, however, have been poorly understood due to the lack of detailed spatially explicit agricultural productivity information on cropland change and crop productivity. This study evaluates the effect of the cropland transformation on agricultural productivity by combining the land use data of China for the period of 1990-2000 from TM images and a satellite-based NPP (net primary production) model driven with NOAH/AVHRR data. The cropland area of China has a net increase of 2.79 Mha in the study period, which causes a slightly increased agricultural productivity (6.96 Mt C) at the national level. Although the newly cultivated lands compensated for the loss from urban expansion, but the contribution to production is insignificant because of the low productivity. The decrease in crop production resulting from urban expansion is about twice of that from abandonment of arable lands to forests and grasslands. The productivity of arable lands occupied by urban expansion was 80% higher than that of the newly cultivated lands in the regions with unfavorable natural conditions. Significance of cropland transformation impacts is spatially diverse with the differences in land use change intensity and land productivity across China. The increase in arable land area and yet decline in land quality may reduce the production potential and sustainability of China's agro-ecosystems. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

STUDY ON THE SPATIAL PATTERNS OF LAND-USE CHANGE AND ANALYSES OF DRIVING FORCES IN NORTHEASTERN CHINA DURING 1990-2000

Land-use change is an important aspect of global environment change. It is, in a sense, the direct result of human activities influencing our physical environment. Supported by the dynamic serving system of national resources, including both the environment database and GIS technology, this paper analyzed the land-use change in northeastern China in the past ten years (1990 - 2000). It divides northeastern China into five land-use zones based on the dynamic degree (DD) of land-use: woodland/grassland - arable land conversion zone, dry land - paddy field conversion zone, urban expansion zone, interlocked zone of farming and pasturing, and reclamation and abandoned zone. In the past ten years, land-use change of northeastern China can be generalized as follows: increase of cropland area was obvious, paddy field and dry land increased by 74. 9 and 276. 0 thousand ha respectively; urban area expanded rapidly, area of town and rural residence increased by 76. 8 thousand ha; area of forest and grassland decreased sharply with the amount of 1399. 0 and 1521. 3 thousand ha respectively; area of water body and unused land increased by 148. 4 and 513. 9 thousand ha respectively. Besides a comprehensive analysis of the spatial patterns of land use, this paper also discusses the driving forces in each land-use dynamic zones. The study shows that some key biophysical factors affect conspicuously the conversion of different land- use types. In this paper, the relationships between land- use conversion and DEM, accnmlated temperature(>= 10 degrees C) and precipitation were analysed and represented. We conclude that the land- use changes in northeast China resulted from the change of macro social and economic factors and local physical elements. Rapid population growth and management changes, in some sense, can explain the shaping of woodland/grassland - cropland conversion zone. The conversion from dry land to paddy field in the dry land - paddy field conversion zone, apart from the physical elements change promoting the expansion of paddy field, results from two reasons: one is that the implementation of market-economy in China has given farmers the right to decide what they plant and how they plant their crops, the other factor is originated partially from the change of dietary habit with the social and economic development. The conversion from paddy field to dry land is caused primarily by the shortfall of irrigation water, which in turn is caused by poor water allocation managed by local governments. The shaping of the reclamation and abandoned zone is partially due to the lack of environment protection consciousness among pioneer settlers. The reason for the conversion from grassland to cropland is the relatively higher profits of fanning than that of pasturing in the interlocked zone of farming and pasturing. In northeastern China, the rapid expansion of built-up areas results from two factors: the first is its small number of towns; the second comes from the huge potential for expansion of existing towns and cities. It is noticeable that urban expansion in the northeastern China is characterized by gentle topographic relief and low population density. Physiognomy, transportation and economy exert great influences on the urban expansion.

Validating MODIS-derived land surface evapotranspiration with in situ measurements at two AmeriFlux sites in a semiarid region

Reducing uncertainties in the estimation of land surface evapotranspiration (ET) from remote-sensing data is essential to better understand earth-atmosphere interactions. This paper demonstrates the applicability of temperature-vegetation index triangle (T-s-VI) method in estimating regional ET and evaporative fraction (EF, defined as the ratio of latent heat flux to surface available energy) from MODIS/Terra and MODIS/Aqua products in a semiarid region. We have compared the satellite-based estimates of ET and EF with eddy covariance measurements made over 4 years at two semiarid grassland sites: Audubon Ranch (AR) and Kendall Grassland (KG). The lack of closure in the eddy covariance measured surface energy components is shown to be more serious at MODIS/Aqua overpass time than that at MODIS/Terra overpass time for both AR and KG sites. The T-s-VI-derived EF could reproduce in situ EF reasonably well with BIAS and root-mean-square difference (RMSD) of less than 0.07 and 0.13, respectively. Surface net radiation has been shown to be systematically overestimated by as large as about 60 W/m(2). Satisfactory validation results of the T-s-VI-derived sensible and latent heat fluxes have been obtained with RMSD within 54 W/m(2). The simplicity and yet easy use of the T-s-VI triangle method show a great potential in estimating regional ET with highly acceptable accuracy that is of critical significance in better understanding water and energy budgets on the Earth. Nevertheless, more validation work should be carried out over various climatic regions and under other different land use/land cover conditions in the future.

Application of rough set-based analysis to extract spatial relationship indicator rules: An example of land use in Pearl River Delta

Spatial relations, reflecting the complex association between geographical phenomena and environments, are very important in the solution of geographical issues. Different spatial relations can be expressed by indicators which are useful for the analysis of geographical issues. Urbanization, an important geographical issue, is considered in this paper. The spatial relationship indicators concerning urbanization are expressed with a decision table. Thereafter, the spatial relationship indicator rules are extracted based on the application of rough set theory. The extraction process of spatial relationship indicator rules is illustrated with data from the urban and rural areas of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, located in the Pearl River Delta. Land use vector data of 1995 and 2000 are used. The extracted spatial relationship indicator rules of 1995 are used to identify the urban and rural areas in Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Macao. The identification accuracy is approximately 96.3%. Similar procedures are used to extract the spatial relationship indicator rules of 2000 for the urban and rural areas in Zhongshan, Zhuhai and Macao. An identification accuracy of about 83.6% is obtained.

Industrial development and land use/cover change and their effects on local environment: a case study of Changshu in eastern coastal China

The interactions among industrial development, land use/cover change (LUCC), and environmental effects in Changshu in the eastern coastal China were analyzed using high-resolution Landsat TM data in 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2006, socio-economic data and water environmental quality monitoring data from research institutes and governmental departments. Three phases of industrial development in Changshu were examined (i.e., the three periods of 1990 to 1995, 1995 to 2000, and 2000 to 2006). Besides industrial development and rapid urbanization, land use/cover in Changshu had changed drastically from 1990 to 2006. This change was characterized by major replacements of farmland by urban and rural settlements, artificial ponds, forested and constructed land. Industrialization, urbanization, agricultural structure adjustment, and rural housing construction were the major socio-economic driving forces of LUCC in Changshu. In addition, the annual value of ecosystem services in Changshu decreased slightly during 1990-2000, but increased significantly during 2000-2006. Nevertheless, the local environmental quality in Changshu, especially in rural areas, has not yet been improved significantly. Thus, this paper suggests an increased attention to fully realize the role of land supply in adjustment of environment-friendly industrial structure and urban-rural spatial restructuring, and translating the land management and environmental protection policies into an optimized industrial distribution and land-use pattern.

Analysis of arable land loss and its impact on rural sustainability in Southern Jiangsu Province of China

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in southern Jiangsu Province have consumed a huge amount of arable land. Through comparative analysis of land cover maps derived from TM images in 1990, 2000 and 2006, we identified the trend of arable land loss. It is found that most arable land is lost to urbanization and rural settlements development. Urban settlements, rural settlements, and industrial park-mine-transport land increased, respectively, by 87 997 ha (174.65%), 81 041 ha (104.52%), and 12 692 ha (397.99%) from 1990 to 2006. Most of the source (e.g., change from) land covers are rice paddy fields and dryland. These two covers contributed to newly urbanized areas by 37.12% and 73.52% during 1990-2000, and 46.39% and 38.86% during 2000-2006. However, the loss of arable land is weakly correlated with ecological service value, per capita net income of farmers, but positively with grain yield for some counties. Most areas in the study site have a low arable land depletion rate and a high potential for sustainable development. More attention should be directed at those counties that have a high depletion rate but a low potential for sustainable development. Rural settlements should be controlled and rationalized through legislative measures to achieve harmonious development between urban and rural areas, and sustainable development for rural areas with a minimal impact on the ecoenvironment. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The temporal and spatial evaluation on China's agricultural policy output since 1978

Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China's implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China's new agricultural policy. The results show that China's agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD's basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.