18 resultados para Multinomial logit models with random coefficients (RCL)

em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal


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The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory, is applied to the large events from four synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of disorder in distribution of fault zone strength (Ben-Zion, 1996) They include models with uniform properties (U), a Parkfield-type asperity (A), fractal brittle properties (F), and multi-size-scale heterogeneities (M). The results show that the degree of regularity or predictability in the assumed fault properties, based on both the Akaike information criterion and simulations, follows the order U, F, A, and M, which is in good agreement with that obtained by pattern recognition techniques applied to the full set of synthetic data. Data simulated from the best fitting stress release models reproduce, both visually and in distributional terms, the main features of the original catalogs. The differences in character and the quality of prediction between the four cases are shown to be dependent on two main aspects: the parameter controlling the sensitivity to departures from the mean stress level and the frequency-magnitude distribution, which differs substantially between the four cases. In particular, it is shown that the predictability of the data is strongly affected by the form of frequency-magnitude distribution, being greatly reduced if a pure Gutenburg-Richter form is assumed to hold out to high magnitudes.

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In this research, asymmetrical cold rolling was produced by the difference in the coefficient of friction between rolls and sheets rather than the difference of roll radius or rotation speeds. The influence of friction coefficient ratio on the cross shear deformation, rolling pressure and torque was investigated using slab analysis. The results showed that the shear deformation zone length increased with the increase of the friction coefficient ratio. The rolling force decreased only under the condition that the friction coefficient ratio increased while the sum of the friction coefficients was held constant. As the reduction per pass was increased, the shear deformation zone length increased and the rolling force also increased. An increase of the front tension resulted in a decrease of the shear deformation zone length. An increase of back tension, however, led to an increase of the shear deformation zone length. The reduction of rolling torque for the work roll with higher surface roughness was greater than that for the work roll with lower surface roughness. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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We provide a novel hollow-core holey fibre that owns a random distribution of air holes in the cladding. Our experiments demonstrate that many of the features previously attributed to photonic crystal fibres with perfect arrangement of air holes, in particular, photonic bandgap guidance, can also be obtained in the fibre. Additionally, this fibre exhibits a second guided mode with both the two-lobe patterns, and each pattern is in different colour.

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The curvature-stress relation is studied for a film-substrate bilayer with the effect of interfacial slip and compared with that of an ideal interface without interfacial slip. The interfacial slip together with the dimensions, elastic and interfacial properties of the film and substrate layers can cause a significant deviation of curvature-stress relation from that with an ideal interface. The interfacial slip also results in the so-called free edge effect that the stress, constraint force, and curvature vary dramatically around the free edges. The constant curvature as predicted by Stoney's formula and the Timoshenko model of an ideal interface is no longer valid for a bilayer with a nonideal interface. The models with the assumption of an ideal interface can also lead to an erroneous evaluation on the true stress state inside a bilayer with a nonideal interface. The extended Stoney's formula incorporating the effects of both the layer dimensions and interfacial slip is presented.

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We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

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Ultrasonic solvent extraction combined with solid-phase microextraction (SPME) with calix[4]arene/hydroxy-terminated silicone (C[4]/OHTSO) oil coated fiber was used to extract phthalate acid esters (PAEs) plasticizers in plastic, such as blood bags, transfusion tubing, food packaging bag, and mineral water bottle for analysis by gas chromatography (GC). Both extraction parameters (i.e. extraction time, extraction temperature, ionic strength) and conditions of the thermal desorption in a GC injector were optimized by analysis of eight phthalates. The fiber shows wonderful sensitivity and selectivity to the tested compounds. Owing to its high thermal stability (380 degreesC), the carryover effect that often encountered when using conventional fibers can be reduced by appropriately enhancing the injector temperature. The method showed linear response over two to four orders of magnitude with correlation coefficients (r) better than 0.996, and limits of detection (LOD) ranged between 0.006 and 0.084 mug l(-1). The relative standard deviation values obtained were less than or equal to 10%. bis-2-Ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) was the sole analyte detected in these plastics and recoveries were in the ranges 95.5-101.4% in all the samples. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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A total of six stations in the Han River system were selected for establishing polyurethane foam units (PFUs) to collect protozoans, including phytomastigophorans, zoomastigophorans, amoebas and ciliates, in July 1993. In the bioassessment of microbial communities using the PFUs, the number of species decreased as pollution intensity increased. The diversity index values calculated at the main stations generally agreed with the pollution status of the stations. Anyang-Chon (Chon means stream) showed the lowest diversity value (1.89), and all stations, except Masok and Anyang-Chon, showed diversity index values ranging from 3.15 to 3.93. The highest heterotrophic index (HI) value was detected in Anyang-Chon followed by Masok-Chon. The number of species at the main stations reached a maximum on day 11 of being exposed to PFUs. The results of S-eq, G and T-90% all suggest that bioassessments using the PFU system were well matched with pollution status of the water. All microbial variables were significantly correlated with comprehensive chemical pollution indices, P-a and P-b, with correlation coefficients ranging from r=0.87 to r=0.96.

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The linear water wave scattering and radiation by an array of infinitely long horizontal circular cylinders in a two-layer fluid of infinite depth is investigated by use of the multipole expansion method. The diffracted and radiated potentials are expressed as a linear combination of infinite multipoles placed at the centre of each cylinder with unknown coefficients to be determined by the cylinder boundary conditions. Analytical expressions for wave forces, hydrodynamic coefficients, reflection and transmission coefficients and energies are derived. Comparisons are made between the present analytical results and those obtained by the boundary element method, and some examples are presented to illustrate the hydrodynamic behavior of multiple horizontal circular cylinders in a two-layer fluid. It is found that for two submerged circular cylinders the influence of the fluid density ratio on internal-mode wave forces is more appreciable than surface-mode wave forces, and the periodic oscillations of hydrodynamic results occur with the increase of the distance between two cylinders; for four submerged circular cylinders the influence of adding two cylinders on the wave forces of the former cylinders is small in low and high wave frequencies, but the influence is appreciable in intermediate wave frequencies.

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A facile CE method coupled with tris(2,2'-bipyridyl) ruthenium(ll)-based electrochem iluminescence [Ru(bpy)(3)(2+)] detection was developed for simultaneous determination of Aconitum alkaloids, i.e., hypaconitine (HA), aconitine (AC), and mesaconitine (MA) in baseline separation. The optimal separation of these Aconitum alkaloids was achieved in a fused-silica capillary column (50 cm x 25 mu m id) with 30 mM phosphate solution (pH 8.40) as running buffer at 12 kV applied voltage. The three alkaloids can be determined within 10 min by a single run. The calibration curves showed a linear range from 2.0 x 10(-7) to 2.0 x 10(-5) M for HA, 3.4 x 10(-7) to 1.7 x 10(-5) M for AC, and 3.8 x 10(-7) to 1.9 x 10(-5) M for MA. The RSDs; for all analytes were below 3.01%. Good linear relationships were found with correlation coefficients for all analytes exceeding 0.993. The detection limits were 2.0 x 10(-8) M for HA, 1.7 x 10(-7) M for AC, and 1.9 x 10(-7) M for MA under optimal conditions. This method was successfully applied to determine the three alkaloids in Aconitum plants.

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CE with electrochemiluminescence, (ECL) detection technique was successfully applied for the chiral separation of a kind of class IA antiarrhythmic racemic drug. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of ECL detection used in chiral CE. To get better detection sensitivity and good enantioresolution at the same time, the conditions of capillary inlet and outlet buffer were systematically optimized. Unlike the traditional chiral separation method, the buffers we used in the capillary inlet and outlet differed from each other in terms of buffer pH, ionic strength, type of BGE as well as buffer composition. Under the optimum conditions, baseline enantioseparation and highly sensitive detection of the enantiomers were achieved. Wide linear relationship of each enantiomer was achieved in the range of 5 x 10(-7) to 2 x 10(-5) mol/L with relative coefficients of 0.996 and 0.997, respectively. The detection limits were estimated to be 8 x 10(-8) and 1.0 X 10(-7) mol/L (S/N = 3) for the enantiomers, respectively. In addition, a successful application of this new method to the chiral separation of the racemic drug in spiked plasma samples confirmed the validity and applicability of the chiral CE-ECL method.

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We report capillary electrophoresis coupling to a solid-state electrochemiluminescence (ECL) detector for the first time. The solid-state ECL detector was fabricated by immobilizing the ECL reagent tris(2,2'-bipyridyf)ruthenium (TBR) in poly-(p-styrenesulfonate)-silica-poly(vinyl alcohol) grafting 4-vinylpyridine copolymer films. The excellent stability of the solid-state ECL detector in the phosphate solution satisfied application in CE. The CE with solid-state ECL detector system was characterized using tripropylamine (TPA) and proline. The influences of detection potential, the concentration of TBR in the film, and pH value of ECL buffer were investigated. The linear range for TPA and proline was 0.005-10 muM and 5-10 mM with correlation coefficients of 0.997 and 0.998, respectively. The detection limit (signal-to-noise ratio S/N = 3) was estimated to be 0.002 and 2.0 muM for TPA and proline, respectively. The relative standard deviations for 1.0 pm TPA and 1.0 mm proline were 8.7% and 7.5% with theoretical plate numbers of 70 000 and 16 000, respectively. Compared with the CE-ECL of TBR in aqueous solution, the CE coupling with solid-state ECL detector system gave the same sensitivity of analysis.

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Capillary electrophoresis (CE)/electrochemical detection (EC) for the simultaneous detection of hydrazine, methylhydrazine, and isoniazid has been developed with a 4-pyridyl hydroquinone self-assembled microdisk platinum electrode. Such an electrode has very high catalytic ability for hydrazines and they could be detected even at 0.0 V. The responses for hydrazine, methylhydrazine, and isoniazid are linear over 3 orders of detected concentration and of magnitude of 0.2-400 mu M, 0.2-400 mu M, 0.5 mu M-2 mM, with correlation coefficients of 0.9998, 0.9991, and 0.9982, respectively. And they could be detected to levels of 0.1, 0.1 and 0.2 mu M, respectively. This modified electrode was found to be very stable and reproducible when continuously used as detector for capillary electrophoresis for period of at least 4 weeks with no apparent loss of response. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) analysis was used to assess eleven pairs of Undaria pinnatifida (Harv.) Suringar male and female gametophytes. After screening fifty primers, 18 ISSR primers were selected for final analysis. A total of 104 loci were obtained, of which 77 were polymorphic, among the gametophytes studied. Genetic relationships were analyzed with simple matching (S), Jaccard's (J) and Dice's (D) distance coefficients. Little genetic variations were found among the selected Undaria gametophytes, for instance, the genetic distances ranging from 0.010 to 0.125 with Dice coefficients. UPGMA dendrograms showed that 11 pairs of Undaria gametophytes were distributed into five groups. Most Undaria strains cultivated in China exhibited closely genetic relationships with the strains from Japan. However, gametophytes from Qingdao appeared as distinct clades from other Undaria strains with all three distance coefficients used. Mantel test showed that the three distance measurements generated congruent clustering patterns on the same data. Our results demonstrated the feasibility of applying ISSR markers for genetic analysis of Undaria gametophytes. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Eleven pairs of Undaria pinnatifida (Harv.) Suringar gametophytes were identified with random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique. After screening 100 primers, 20 ten-base primers were determined for the RAPD analysis. A total of 312 polymorphic loci were obtained, of which 97.7% were polymorphic. The primer S198 was found to distinguish all the selected Undaria pinnatifida gametophytes. The genetic distances between each two of the twenty-two U. pinnatifida gametophytes ranged from 0.080 to 0.428, while the distances to the Laminaria was 0.497 on average. After reexamination, two sequences characterized amplification region (SCAR) markers were successfully converted, which could be applied to U. pinnatifida germplasm identification. All these results demonstrated the feasibility of applying RAPD markers to germplasm characterization and identification of U. pinnatifida gametophytes, and to provide a molecular basis for Undaria breeding.