油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

水-盐-气天然流体的物理化学性质模拟与流体包裹体应用研究

Natural fluids with water-salt-gas are often found in every sphere of the Earth, whose physicochemical properties and geochemical behaviors are complicated. To study these properties and behaviors turns out to be one of the challenging issues in geosciences. Traditional approaches mainly depend on experiments and observations. However, it is impossible to obtain a large number of data covering a large T-P space of the Earth by experimental methods in the near future, which will hinder the advance of the theoretical study. Therefore, it is important to model natural fluids by advanced theoretical methods, by which limited experimental data can be extended to a large temperature-pressure-composition space. Physicochemical models developed in this dissertation are not only more accurate, but also extend the applied T-P-m region of the experimental data of the multi-fluid systems by about two times. These models provide the new and accurate theoretical tools for the geochemical research, especially for the water-rock interactions and the study of the fluid inclusions. The main achievements can be summarized as follows: (1) A solubility model on components of natural gases is presented. The solubility model on the systems of CH4-H2O-NaCl, C2H6-H2O-NaCl or N2-H2O-NaCl takes advantage of modern physicochemical theory and methods, and is an improvement over previous models whose prediction and precision are relatively poor. The model can predict not only the gas solubility in liquid phase but also water content in the gas phase. In addition, it can predict gases (methane or nitrogen) solubility in seawater and brine. Isochores can be determined, which are very important in the interpretation of fluid inclusions. (2) A density model on common aqueous salt solutions is developed. The density models with high precision for common aqueous salt solutions (H2O-NaCl, H2O-LiCl, H2O-KCl, H2O-MgCl2, H2O-CaCl2, H2O-SrCl2 or H2O-BaCl2) are absent in the past. Previous density models are limited to the relatively small range of experimental data, and cannot meet the requirement of the study of natural fluids. So a general density model of the above systems is presented by us based on the international standard density model of the water. The model exceeds the other models in both precision and prediction. (3) A viscosity model on common aqueous alkali-chloride solutions is proposed. Dynamic viscosity of water-salt systems, an important physics variable, is widely used in three-dimension simulation of the fluids. But in most cases, due to the lack of viscosity models with a wide T-P range, the viscosity of aqueous salt solutions is replaced by that of the water, giving rise to a relatively large uncertainty. A viscosity model with good prediction for the systems (H2O-NaCl, H2O-LiCl or H2O-KCl) is presented on the base of the international standard viscosity model of water and the density model developed before. (4) Equation of State applied in fluid inclusions. The best Equations of State in the world developed by others or us recently are applied in the study of the fluid inclusions. Phase equilibria and isochores of unitary system (e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4, O2, N2, C2H6 or H2S), binary H2O-NaCl system and ternary H2O-CH4-NaCl system are finished. From these programs and thermodynamic equations of coexisting ores, the physicochemical conditions before or after the deposits form can be determined. To some extent, it is a better tool.

个体人格类型与气味偏好的关系

So far the studies on personality are based on indirect way due to the complexity and limitation. Present research attempt to find another route to approach personality through olfaction. The framework of present research is on account of a modern personality theory model produced by the British psychologist Eysenck. The aim of present research is to prove a correlation between olfaction and personality because sensation and perception of the olfaction on special part of brain closely related to emotional arousal. This research was carefully designed and performed by both psychological questionnaire and olfaction examination. The results indicated some good correlation between smell sense and personal character, which can by applied into personality and behavior analysis.