4 resultados para Model risk

em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal


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It has been 10 years since the publication of the relative risk model (RRM) for regional scale ecological risk assessment. The approach has since been used successfully for a variety of freshwater, marine, and terrestrial environments in North America, South America, and Australia. During this period the types of stressors have been expanded to include more than contaminants. Invasive species, habitat loss, stream alteration and blockage, temperature, change in land use, and climate have been incorporated into the assessments. Major developments in the RRM have included the extensive use of geographical information systems, uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques, and its application to retrospective assessments to determine causation. The future uses of the RRM include assessments for forestry and conservation management, an increasing use in invasive species evaluation, and in sustainability. Developments in risk communication, the use of Bayesian approaches, and in uncertainty analyses are on the horizon.

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Genetically improved transgenic fish possess many beneficial economic traits; however, the commercial aquaculture of transgenic fish has not been performed till date. One of the major reasons for this is the possible ecological risk associated with the escape or release of the transgenic fish. Using a growth hormone transgenic fish with rapid growth characteristics as a subject, this paper analyzes the following: the essence of the potential ecological risks posed by transgenic fish; ecological risk in the current situation due to transgenic fish via one-factor phenotypic and fitness analysis, and mathematical model deduction. Then, it expounds new ideas and the latest findings using an artificially simulated ecosystem for the evaluation of the ecological risks posed by transgenic fish. Further, the study comments on the strategies and principles of controlling these ecological risks by using a triplold approach. Based on these results, we propose that ecological risk evaluation and prevention strategies are indispensable important components and should be accompanied with breeding research in order to provide enlightments for transgenic fish breeding, evaluation of the ecological risks posed by transgenic fish, and development of containment strategies against the risks.

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Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.