Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Proposed scheme for parallel 10Gb/s VSR system and its Verilog HDL realization

This paper proposes a novel and innovative scheme for 10Gb/s parallel Very Short Reach (VSR) optical communication system. The optimized scheme properly manages the SDH/SONET redundant bytes and adjusts the position of error detecting bytes and error correction bytes. Compared with the OIF-VSR4-01.0 proposal, the scheme has a coding process module. The SDH/SONET frames in transmission direction are disposed as follows: (1) The Framer-Serdes Interface (FSI) gets 16x622.08Mb/s STM-64 frame. (2) The STM-64 frame is byte-wise stripped across 12 channels, all channels are data channels. During this process, the parity bytes and CRC bytes are generated in the similar way as OIF-VSR4-01.0 and stored in the code process module. (3) The code process module will regularly convey the additional parity bytes and CRC bytes to all 12 data channels. (4) After the 8B/10B coding, the 12 channels is transmitted to the parallel VCSEL array. The receive process approximately in reverse order of transmission process. By applying this scheme to 10Gb/s VSR system, the frame size in VSR system is reduced from 15552x12 bytes to 14040x12 bytes, the system redundancy is reduced obviously.

Dynamic optical coupled system employing even-numbered Dammann gratings

Dammann gratings are well known for their ability to generate arrays of Lmiform-intensity beams from an incoming monochromatic beam. We apply the even-numbered Dammann grating to achieve dynamic optical coupled technology. A 1 x N dynamic optical coupled system is developed by employing two complementary even-numbered Dammann gratings. With this system we can achieve a beam splitter and combiner as a switch between them according to the relative shift between the gratings. Also, this system is a preferable approach in integral packaging. More importantly, this device has the potential to be applied to the splitting of a large array, e.g., 8 x 16 array and 64 x 64 array, which is difficult to be realized with conventional splitting methods. We experimentally demonstrated a 1 x 8 coupler at the wavelength of 1550 nm. Furthermore we analyze the effects of the alignment errors between gratings and the wavelength-dependent error on efficiency and uniformity. The experimental results and the influence of alignment error and wavelength-dependent error are analyzed in detail. (c) 2006 Optical Society of America.

阵列光栅压缩器的空域特性

引入角度偏差、位移偏差作为拼接光栅系统的物理参数，定义了拼接光栅的孔径函数，利用傅里叶角谱理论研究了高斯脉冲入射拼接光栅压缩器后的远场分布特性。研究表明；出射脉冲仍然是高斯型脉冲，但包络中心发生偏移，偏移量由角度偏差量和光束口径决定；位移偏差引入的相位随着拼接光栅压缩器传递，其对远场焦斑的影响，取决于每片子光栅的非整数倍光栅常数的横向位移偏差和纵向位移偏差的综合作用。通过数值计算得到了各维偏差对阵列光栅压缩器空域特性的影响，计算表明：光栅面外角度偏差（俯仰左右）和条纹平行度偏差都必须控制在1μrad以内，

基于法珀标准具的激光稳频方法理论研究

介绍了使用法珀(Fabry-Perot,F-P)标准具作为频率标准的三种稳频方法,并且进行理论分析,分别得出了各种方法的鉴频曲线.通过对鉴频曲线进行比较发现边频锁定技术具有斜率大、信号强、控制范围广的优点,优于另外两种方法,是一种理想的激光稳频技术.

基于RS编码及网格编码调制的光PPM通信纠错技术

分析了RS（Reed-Solomon）纠错码和网格编码调制（Trellis Coded Modulation，TCM）技术在光脉冲位置调制通信中的应用．在此基础上，提出了以RS码作为外码，以网格编码调制技术作为内码，用于光脉冲位置调制通信的新编码方案，能以几乎不减少通信速率的优势，提高传统RS码系统在时变带限光信道中的通信性能．模拟研究了在不同空间光信道条件下，传统RS码的符号正确传输率和误码率，并对网格编码调制的编码增益、RS码与网格编码调制级联时的编码增益进行了仿真研究，证实了本方案的有效性．

可见光波段双层浮雕型导模共振滤波器设计与分析

基于傅里叶模式理论分析了双层浮雕型导模共振光栅的共振效应,分别讨论了光栅的槽深、剩余厚度、周期以及填充系数对峰值反射率、带宽、旁带反射率的影响.数据计算表明,欠刻蚀情形的误差宽容度远远优于过刻蚀情形,两者在光栅槽深相对误差小于15%的范围内,都能保证共振峰的衍射效率高于99.5%,在相同的误差范围内,共振峰线宽的相对误差将分别达到7%和60%,因此厚度误差集中反映在对共振线宽的改变上.另外,光栅周期和填充系数的变化将明显改变共振峰中心波长和线宽.

A phylogeny of Chinese species in the genus Phrynocephalus (Agamidae) inferred from mitochondrial DNA sequences

We investigated the phylogenetic relationships among most Chinese species of lizards in the genus Phrynocephalus (118 individuals, collected from 56 populations of 14 well-defined species and several unidentified specimens) using four mitochondrial gene fragments (12S rRNA, 16S rRNA, cytochrome b, and ND4-tRNA(LEU)). The partition-homogeneity tests indicated that the combined dataset was homogeneous, and maximum-parsimony (MP), neighbor-joining (NJ), maximum-likelihood (ML) and Bayesian (BI) analyses were performed on this combined dataset (49 haplotypes including outgroups for 2058 bp in total). The maximum-parsimony analysis resulted in 24 equally parsimonious trees, and their strict consensus tree shows that there are two major clades representing the Chinese Phrynocephalus species: the viviparous group (Clade A) and the oviparous group (Clade B). The trees derived from Bayesian, ML. and NJ analyses were topologically identical to the MP analysis except for the position of P. mystaceus. All analyses left the nodes for the oviparous group, the most basal clade within the oviparous group, and P. mystaceus unresolved. The phylogenies further suggest that the monophyly of the viviparous species may have resulted from vicariance, while recent dispersal may have been important in generating the pattern of variation among the oviparous species. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Mode analysis of the UV-written channel waveguide - art. no. 60340J

The effective index method (EIM) was adopted to model the channel waveguide patterned by the UV in photosensitive silica film. The effective indexes of the different dimension symmetrical and asymmetrical channel waveguides were calculated, and the resource of the error of the method was pointed out. At last, the dimension rang to propagate single mode was presented.

加速器高频误差分析系统的设计与实现

兰州重离子加速器冷却储存环的控制系统由磁场电源控制系统、真空控制系统、高频控制系统等许多子控制系统所组成。 本文所论述的对象是高频控制系统。本文所研究的主要问题，就是如何在对高频信号合理采样后，从得到的数字信息中提取出信号的有用信息。采用普通的通信接收机结构难以实现对高频信号的分析，因此应用软件无线电接收机原理，针对高频信号的特殊情况，设计实现了一个高频信号信息的分析系统。系统主要使用DSP处理器

浑太流域洪涝灾害及其治理方略

Hunhe, Taizihe rivers originating from the east mountain areas of Liaoning Province are the biggest tributaries of the left bank of Liaohe River. From the initial stage of New China to the early 1990s, the frequency of flood damage had decreased, but recently the disasters have upgraded and changed from trunk stream to tributary basins. In July 1995, Dongzhouhe, a tributary of Hunhe River, suffered from a heaviest flood since establishing the document of floods in Hunhe basin. Meanwhile, a peak discharge, almost beyond double defending ability, occurred at Dadongshanpu Station of Beishahe River, a tributary of Taizihe River. Besides the continued heavy rainstorm, no controllable water conservancy projects and ecological damages caused by quickly decreasing forest cover and water and soil loss are the two main causes of flood damage. In addition, the low flood protection standard is also one of causes. According to the above analyses, some strategies of synthetic controlling for flood damages were put forward: 1) Establishing the system of ecological engineering to defend floods and reduce disasters; 2)Setting up storage and detention areas; 3) Establishing flood controlling information system; 4) Improving the accuracy of media short period and short period rainstorm forecast and flood forecast; 5) Insurance of flood protection.

五轴磨抛机器人补偿算法研究与实现

通过分析基于模型的补偿方法和非模型补偿方法的优缺点,结合一个五轴磨抛机器人的结构特点,提出了两种补偿方法相结合的混合补偿算法.针对平移关节误差的主要来源难于建模的特点,采用非模型的方法进行补偿;针对转动关节误差主要来源为几何参数误差,能够建模,但有些参数随机器人末端位置不同而变化的特点,采用二者相结合的混合方法进行补偿.通过对该机器人系统的实验,验证了方法的有效性和可行性.

水下机器人的神经网络自适应控制

研究了水下机器人神经网络直接自适应控制方法,采用Lyapunov稳定性理论,证明了存在有界外界干扰和有界神经网络逼近误差条件下,水下机器人控制系统的跟踪误差一致稳定有界.为了进一步验证该水控制方法的正确性和稳定性,利用水下机器人实验平台进行了动力定位实验、单自由度跟踪实验和水平面跟踪实验等验证实验.

四坐标位姿测量仪设计研究与误差分析

四坐标位姿测量仪是针对某轻型汽车底盘前悬置横梁上四孔位姿测量而设计的新型仪器·该测量仪以六自由度并联机构作为执行机构 ,能够迅速准确地到达被测孔的实际位置 ,测量头具有对非测量参数误差的自适应和自调整能力·采用比较法实现参数测量·该机构结构新颖 ,测量效率高·系统分析研究了各因素造成的测量误差 ,指出了减小测量误差的措施 ,从而为精确设计测量仪提供了可靠依据·

基于模型的立体视觉的优化方法

针对 3D视觉检测中最典型的误差源图像中像素的量化误差 ,在已知模型的条件下 ,对双目立体视觉提出一种模型。利用该优化模型及改进的约束最小二乘法对未知模型的立体视觉解法做一些改进 ,可以明显减小系统的误差。仿真结果表明 ,与未知模型的立体视觉方法相比 ,在同样的量化误差条件下 ,该方法可将系统误差减小 50 %以上。