基于MRF模型的油气储层属性随机建模方法研究

Stochastic reservoir modeling is a technique used in reservoir describing. Through this technique, multiple data sources with different scales can be integrated into the reservoir model and its uncertainty can be conveyed to researchers and supervisors. Stochastic reservoir modeling, for its digital models, its changeable scales, its honoring known information and data and its conveying uncertainty in models, provides a mathematical framework or platform for researchers to integrate multiple data sources and information with different scales into their prediction models. As a fresher method, stochastic reservoir modeling is on the upswing. Based on related works, this paper, starting with Markov property in reservoir, illustrates how to constitute spatial models for catalogued variables and continuum variables by use of Markov random fields. In order to explore reservoir properties, researchers should study the properties of rocks embedded in reservoirs. Apart from methods used in laboratories, geophysical means and subsequent interpretations may be the main sources for information and data used in petroleum exploration and exploitation. How to build a model for flow simulations based on incomplete information is to predict the spatial distributions of different reservoir variables. Considering data source, digital extent and methods, reservoir modeling can be catalogued into four sorts: reservoir sedimentology based method, reservoir seismic prediction, kriging and stochastic reservoir modeling. The application of Markov chain models in the analogue of sedimentary strata is introduced in the third of the paper. The concept of Markov chain model, N-step transition probability matrix, stationary distribution, the estimation of transition probability matrix, the testing of Markov property, 2 means for organizing sections-method based on equal intervals and based on rock facies, embedded Markov matrix, semi-Markov chain model, hidden Markov chain model, etc, are presented in this part. Based on 1-D Markov chain model, conditional 1-D Markov chain model is discussed in the fourth part. By extending 1-D Markov chain model to 2-D, 3-D situations, conditional 2-D, 3-D Markov chain models are presented. This part also discusses the estimation of vertical transition probability, lateral transition probability and the initialization of the top boundary. Corresponding digital models are used to specify, or testify related discussions. The fifth part, based on the fourth part and the application of MRF in image analysis, discusses MRF based method to simulate the spatial distribution of catalogued reservoir variables. In the part, the probability of a special catalogued variable mass, the definition of energy function for catalogued variable mass as a Markov random field, Strauss model, estimation of components in energy function are presented. Corresponding digital models are used to specify, or testify, related discussions. As for the simulation of the spatial distribution of continuum reservoir variables, the sixth part mainly explores 2 methods. The first is pure GMRF based method. Related contents include GMRF model and its neighborhood, parameters estimation, and MCMC iteration method. A digital example illustrates the corresponding method. The second is two-stage models method. Based on the results of catalogued variables distribution simulation, this method, taking GMRF as the prior distribution for continuum variables, taking the relationship between catalogued variables such as rock facies, continuum variables such as porosity, permeability, fluid saturation, can bring a series of stochastic images for the spatial distribution of continuum variables. Integrating multiple data sources into the reservoir model is one of the merits of stochastic reservoir modeling. After discussing how to model spatial distributions of catalogued reservoir variables, continuum reservoir variables, the paper explores how to combine conceptual depositional models, well logs, cores, seismic attributes production history.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.