Spatial and Temporal Variation of LURR and Its Implication for the Tendency of Earthquake Occurrence in Southern California

Based on the theory of LURR and its recent development, spatial and temporal variation of Y/Y-c (value of LURR/critical value of LURR) in the Southern California region during the period from 1980 through March, 2001 was studied. According to the previous study on the fault system and stress field in Southern California, we zoned the Southern California region into 11 parts in each of which the stress field is almost uniform. With the time window of one year, time moving step of three months, space window of a circle region with a radius of 100 km and space moving step of 0.25 degree in latitude and longitude direction, the evolution of Y/Y-c were snapshot. The scanning results show that obvious Y/Y-c anomalies occurred before 5/6 of strong earthquakes considered with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater. The critical regions of Y/Y-c are near the epicenters of the strong earthquakes and the Y/Y-c anomalies occur months to years prior to the earthquakes. The tendency of earthquake occurrence in the California region is briefly discussed on the basis of the examination of Y/Y-c.

华北及周边地区层析成像研究

Our study deals with the high resolution body wave tomography in North china and adjacent areas(30°N-43°N，100°E-130°E), where earthquakes occurred many times in history and has a very complicated geological structure. 6870 events recorded at 273 digital seismic stations from CDSN during 1996－2002 and stations settled by Seislab of IGCAS in Bohai Bay area, including 1382 local earthquakes and 5488 teleseismic earthquakes are used in this study. In the data we used, the average number of received stations is greater than 5, the error of picking up direct arrival time is 0.1－0.5s. Before the inversion, we use Checkerboard method to confirm the reliability of result of Local events; use Restoring Resolution Test to confirm the reliability of result of teleseismic events. We also analyzed the effect of different parameters in the inversion. Based the analysis above, the model used in this paper is divided into small blocks with a dimension of 0.33°in the latitude and longitude directions and 5km、15km、30km in depth, and initial velocity model. Using pseudobending method to calculate the ray traveling path, LSQR algorithm to inverse, finally, we got the body velocity images below 25km and above 480km in this area using Joint- inversion with local events and teleseismic events. We made the conclusion at last: (1)at top zone of the south of Sichuan Basin , there exits low velocity anomalies, below 40km is the high velocity zone extend to 300km; (2) Above the 40km of Ordos block exits low velocity zone, while below 40km until 240km, the high velocity anomalies are interlaced by low velocity anomalies. Below 300km, the anomalies are unclear any more; (3) On the whole, the velocity structure below 400km on the mantle transition zone of Eastern China area shows its changes from low velocity to high velocity.

Fast Computing For Lurr Of Earthquake Prediction

The LURR theory is a new approach for earthquake prediction, which achieves good results in earthquake prediction within the China mainland and regions in America, Japan and Australia. However, the expansion of the prediction region leads to the refinement of its longitude and latitude, and the increase of the time period. This requires increasingly more computations, and the volume of data reaches the order of GB, which will be very difficult for a single CPU. In this paper, a new method was introduced to solve this problem. Adopting the technology of domain decomposition and parallelizing using MPI, we developed a new parallel tempo-spatial scanning program.

Factors affecting leaf morphology: a case study of Ranunculus natans C. A. Mey. (Ranunculaceae) in the arid zone of northwest China

In order to examine the role of environmental factors affecting foliar morphology, we performed a case study of leaf morphological variation of Ranunculus natans found in the arid zone of northwest China. We found that foliar phenotypic variation differed significantly between populations. We described substantial positive correlations between altitude and leaf area (LA) as well as leaf perimeter (LP), and also between longitude and number of teeth, along with dissection index (DI). The pH, conductivity, and salinity of the environment caused a significant decrease in both LA and LP. Ranked in terms of their impacts on leaf morphology, the six selected factors were: altitude > pH > conductivity > salinity > longitude > latitude. We found that foliar morphological variations are functional responses to water-quantity factors (e.g., altitude and longitude at regional scales) and water-availability relation factors (e.g., pH, conductivity, and salinity at local scales), rather than to temperature-relation factors (latitude). Therefore, altitude and longitude, along with pH, conductivity, and salinity, are the main factors that significantly influence foliar morphology in the arid zone of China. We found that main factors played major roles in plant phenotypic plasticity in a complex ecosystem, although different combinations and interactions of environmental and geographical factors in each local environment may obscure the general trends in trait changes along environmental gradients.

中国西部亚热带常绿阔叶林木本植物小枝功能生态学初步研究

常绿阔叶林以其富饶的生物资源、丰富的生物多样性和巨大的生态与环境效益引起了人们越来越大的重视，它的研究已成为国际植被科学界关注的主题之一。我国分布着世界上面积最大的亚热带常绿阔叶林，在世界植被中具有重要地位，它的分布表现出明显的地带性差异，存在着多样的植物群系及其对应的气候特征。但是在植物功能性状领域，与全球范围其它生物群系相比，常绿阔叶林物种的研究较少，其功能性状间、功能性状与环境间的关系尚不清晰。 本研究以常绿阔叶林木本植物的当年生小枝为对象，试图从小枝水平上的生物量分配格局、叶片大小与数量的权衡关系、小枝茎的构型效应、叶片元素化学计量学，以及小枝大小的成本与效益分析等方面，较为系统地揭示小枝水平上的植物功能性状间及其与气候间的关系。因此，在华西雨屏带内部的不同纬度设置峨眉－青城－雷波－平武的温度梯度进行比较，并对有降水差异的川西南偏湿性（雷波）与偏干性常绿阔叶林（西昌）进行对比研究，同时在不同山体进行不同海拔梯度的比较研究。 本文主要研究结果如下： （1）小枝生物量分配格局叶水平上，叶片重－叶柄重（Y轴vs.X轴,下同）呈斜率小于1的异速生长关系，表明叶柄对叶内部的生物量分配影响显著。小枝水平上，叶和茎的生物量以及它们与小枝总生物量间基本呈等速生长关系，表明大的小枝或大叶物种不一定在叶生物量的分配上占优势。不同生活型间，在小枝或者茎的生物量一定时，常绿物种叶片的生物量比例较落叶物种稍高。与温度和水分较优越（峨眉及其低海拔）的生境相比，在相对低湿（螺髻）与低温（平武）的生境中的植物会减少对叶的投入而增加对支撑部分的投资比例。 （2）小枝叶片大小与数量的权衡无论是不同气候带还是不同生活型以及不同海拔梯度，叶片大小与出叶强度基本都是呈负的等速生长关系，表明了叶片大小－数量在小枝水平上的权衡。在不同气候梯度的对比中，叶片数量（出叶强度）一定时，高温和高水分生境（峨眉）比低温（平武）和低湿（螺髻山）生境中的物种的叶片大小（质量和面积）更大，表明不同生境的比较中，小的叶片可能具有较高的出叶强度和更高的适合度收益。“出叶强度优势”（Leafingintensitypremium）假说可能不适宜解释不同生境物种叶片大小差异。 （3）小枝茎的构型效应虽然茎长和茎径与叶片大小都呈正相关关系，与出叶强度都呈负相关关系，但茎长/茎径比与叶/茎生物量之比呈负相关关系；与叶片的大小呈负相关关系，与出叶强度呈正相关关系。这说明小枝构型能影响小枝叶/茎生物量分配和叶大小－数量的权衡关系。其影响机制可能是小枝内部的顶端优势。另外，茎长/茎径比在低湿和低温等不利生境中的植物中较高，而在降水和温度较适宜环境中较低。 （4）叶片C、N、P化学计量学N含量和P含量，C/N比和比叶重（LMA,leafmassperarea）呈正的等速生长关系，而N和LMA，P和LMA呈负的等速生长关系。在LMA一定时，C/N比随着生境胁迫压力的增加而降低，N、P含量随着生境压力的增加而增加。在P含量一定时，N含量随着生境压力的增加而降低，即N/P比在生境条件较优（峨眉及其低海拔）时较高。常绿和落叶植物叶片的N/P比没有差异，在LMA一定时，常绿植物的N、P含量较高、C/N比较低。总之，植物的C、N、P化学计量学特征受叶片属性如LMA与气候，及其相互作用的影响。 （5）小枝大小的代价与效益分析、TLA与小枝总重总叶面积（TLA,totalleafarea，Y轴，下同）与总叶重（X轴）均呈斜率小于1的异速生长关系，TLA与小枝横切面积呈斜率为1的等速生长关系。表明叶片面积的增加总是小于叶重和小枝总重的增加，随着小枝的增大，它的叶面积支撑效率下降。在热量和降水优越的生境（峨眉及其低海拔）中，相同小枝重或者相同茎横切面积的小枝，其叶面积支撑效率较低湿与低温环境下（螺髻山、平武及高海拔）的高。 总体上，本文初步研究了小枝水平上可能存在的以下三种权衡关系：叶－茎生物量分配权衡；叶片大小－数量的权衡；小枝茎长－茎径的权衡关系，以及气候要素等对这三种权衡关系的影响。在此基础上，我们还讨论了这些权衡关系的可能形成机制，及其与物种生态适应的联系。本研究丰富了生活史对策中关于权衡关系的研究内容，为我国常绿阔叶林功能生态学研究积累了材料。 Evergreen broad-leaved forests are attracting much more attention from vegetation ecologists than ever before because of their abundant nature resource and biological diversity, and also great ecological benefits. China has the largest distribution of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests (temperate rainforests) that are typical and representative in the world. The forests span over more than ten degrees in latitude and more than 30 degrees in longitude, providing an ideal place to study plant functional ecology, i.e., the climatic effect on plant functional traits and the relationship between the traits. However, relative to the other biomes, there are few studies addressing functional ecology of the plant species from subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests. In this study, I focused on the leaf size-twig size spectrum of the woody species of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in southwestern china. I collected data on leaf size and number, twig size in terms of both mass and volume, and stem architecture from five temperate mountains, and then I analyzed the relationships between leaf and stem biomass and between leaf size and number, the effect of stem length/diameter ratio on biomass allocation and on the relationship between leaf size and number, leaf C:N:P stoichiometry, and the twig efficiency of supporting leaf area in relation to twig size. I also addressed the climate effect on the spectrum. The temperature gradient from warm to cool sites was represented by Emei Mountain, Qingchengshan, Leibo, and Pingwu, and the rainfall gradient was assumed to emerge from the comparison between Leibo (High) and Luojishan (Low). In addition, altitudinal effects were analyzed with comparisons between low and high altitudes for each mountains. My main results are as follows. Isometric relationships were found between leaf mass and twig mass and between lamina mass and twig mass, suggesting that the biomass allocation to leaves or laminas was independent of twig mass. Petiole mass disproportionably increase with respect to lamina mass and twig mass, indicating the importance of leaf petioles to the within-twig biomass allocation. In addition, the investigated species tended to have a larger leaf and lamina mass, but a smaller stem mass at a given twig mass at favorable environments including warm and humid sites or at low altitude than unfavorable habitats, which might be due to the large requirements in physical support and transporting safety for the species living at unfavorable conditions. Moreover, the evergreen species invested more in leaves and laminas than the deciduous at given stem or twig biomass within any specified habitats. Negative, isometric scaling relationships between leaf number and size broadly existed in the species regardless of climate, altitude, and life forms, suggesting a leaf size/number trade-off within twigs. Along the climatic gradients, at given leaf number or leafing intensity, the leaves were larger in the favorable environments than the poor habitats. This suggested that the fitness benefit gained by small leaves could be larger than that with high leafing intensity in the stressful sites. I concluded that the “leafing intensity premium” hypothesis was not appropriate to interpreting between-habitat variation in leaf size. Both stem length and diameter were positively correlated to leaf size but negatively correlated to leafing intensity. The ratio of stem length to diameter was negatively correlated to leaf mass fraction, and it was negatively correlated to leaf size but positively correlated to leafing intensity. This suggested that the stem architecture influenced twig biomass allocation and the relationship between leaf size and number. The mechanism underlying the architectural effect might lie in the apical dominance within twig. Moreover, the ratio was greater in unfavorable habitats but smaller in favorable environments. Positive, isometric relationships were found between N and P contents per leaf mass, and between C/N ratio and leaf mass per area (LMA), but N and P contents scaled negatively to LMA. C/N ratio decreased but N and P increased with increasing habitat stress at a given LMA. N content declined with increasing habitat stress at given P content. These indicated that N/P and C/N were higher but LMA was lower in favorable habitats than in the other circumstances. The evergreen and deciduous species were non-heterogeneous in N/P, but the evergreen species have higher N and P contents and lower C/N than the deciduous ones. In general, C:N:P stoichiometry were related to both climatic conditions and other important functional traits like LMA. Total leaf area (TLA) allometricly scaled to leaf mass with a slope shallower than 1, similar to the relationship between TLA and total twig mass (leaf mass plus stem mass), suggesting that TLA failed to keep pace with the increase of leaf mass and twig size. However, TLA scaled isometricly to twig cross-sectional area. Thus, it could be inferred that the twig efficiency of displaying leaf area decreased with increasing twig size. In addition, the efficiency at a given twig size was large in favorable than unfavorable habitats. In general, in this preliminary study, I studied three tradeoff relationships within twigs, i.e., between leaf and stem biomass, between leaf number and size, and between stem length and diameter, as well as the climatic effect on the relationships. I discussed the mechanisms underlying the tradeoff relationships in view of biophysics and eco-physiology of plants. I believe that this study can serve as important materials advancing plant functional ecology of subtropical forest and that it will improve the understanding of life history strategies of plants from this particular biome.

电离层参量M(3000)F2和hmF2的经验正交函数方法建模研究

The ionospheric parameter M(3000)F2 (the so-called transmission factor or the propagation factor) is important not only in practical applications such as frequency planning for radio-communication but also in ionospheric modeling. This parameter is strongly anti-correlated with the ionospheric F2-layer peak height hmF2，a parameter often used as a key anchor point in some widely used empirical models of the ionospheric electron density profile (e.g., in IRI and NeQuick models). Since hmF2 is not easy to obtain from measurements and M(3000)F2 can be routinely scaled from ionograms recorded by ionosonde/digisonde stations distributed globally and its data has been accumulated for a long history, usually the value of hmF2 is calculated from M(3000)F2 using the empirical formula connecting them. In practice, CCIR M(3000)F2 model is widely used to obtain M(3000)F2 value. However, recently some authors found that the CCIR M(3000)F2 model has remarkable discrepancies with the measured M(3000)F2, especially in low-latitude and equatorial regions. For this reason, the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) research community proposes to improve or update the currently used CCIR M(3000)F2 model. Any efforts toward the improvement and updating of the current M(3000)F2 model or newly development of a global hmF2 model are encouraged. In this dissertation, an effort is made to construct the empirical models of M(3000)F2 and hmF2 based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis combined with regression analysis method. The main results are as follows: 1. A single station model is constructed using monthly median hourly values of M(3000)F2 data observed at Wuhan Ionospheric Observatory during the years of 1957–1991 and compared with the IRI model. The result shows that EOF method is possible to use only a few orders of EOF components to represent most of the variance of the original data set. It is a powerful method for ionospheric modeling. 2. Using the values of M(3000)F2 observed by ionosondes distributed globally, data at grids uniformly distributed globally were obtained by using the Kriging interpolation method. Then the gridded data were decomposed into EOF components using two different coordinates: (1) geographical longitude and latitude; (2) modified dip (Modip) and local time. Based on the EOF decompositions of the gridded data under these two coordinates systems, two types of the global M(3000)F2 model are constructed. Statistical analysis showed that the two types of the constructed M(3000)F2 model have better agreement with the observational M(3000)F2 than the M(3000)F2 model currently used by IRI. The constructed models can represent the global variations of M(3000)F2 better. 3. The hmF2 data used to construct the hmF2 model were converted from the observed M(3000)F2 based on the empirical formula connecting them. We also constructed two types of the global hmF2 model using the similar method of modeling M(3000)F2. Statistical analysis showed that the prediction of our models is more accurate than the model of IRI. This demonstrated that using EOF analysis method to construct global model of hmF2 directly is feasible. The results in this thesis indicate that the modeling technique based on EOF expansion combined with regression analysis is very promising when used to construct the global models of M(3000)F2 and hmF2. It is worthwhile to investigate further and has the potential to be used to the global modeling of other ionospheric parameters.

中国北方草本植物及表土有机质碳同位素组成

Recently, more and more attention has been paid to stable isotope ratios in terrestrial depositional systems. Among them, δ~(13)C value is mainly determined by the surface vegetation, while vegetation is directly related to climate, therefore, carbon isotope ratio in soil organic matter and pedogenic carbonate has been employed as an important paleoecological indicator. In order to test the paleoecological information extracted from stable isotope ratios in terrestrial depositional systems, it is necessary to study the relationships between δ~(13)C value in standing terrestrial plants and today climate, as well as between δ~(13)C value in modern surface soil organic matter and standing vegetation. Thus, these relationships were studied in this paper by means of analysing δ~(13)C in standing plants and modem surface soil organic matter in North China. The main results and conclusions are presented as following: 1. According to their δ~(13)C values, 40 C-4 species represent about 16% of the 257 plant species sarnpled from the North China. C-4 photosynthesis mainly occurs in Poaceae, Cyperaceae and Chenopidaceae families, and percentage representation of C-4 photosynthesis is up to 56% in Poaceae family. 2. The δ~(13)C values of C-3 plant species in North China vary from -21.7‰ to -32.0‰ with an average of -27.1‰, and 93% focus on the range of -24.0‰ ～ -30.0‰; δ~(13)C values of C-4 plant species in North China are between -10.0‰ ～ -15.5‰ with an average of -12.9‰, and 90% concentrate on the range of -11.0‰ ～ -15.0‰. 3. The δ~(13)C composition of C-3 plant species collected from Beijing, a semi-moist district, mainly vary between -27.0‰ ～ -30.0‰, and the average is -28.7‰; the δ ~(13)C values of plants in the semi-arid district, east and west to the Liu Pan Moutain, focus on the range of-26.0‰ ～ -29.0‰ and -25.0‰ ～ -28.0‰, respectively, with the mean value of -27.6‰ and -26.6‰, respectively; the δ~(13)C composition in the arid district dominantly vary from -24.0‰ to -29.0‰, with the average of -26.2‰, and among them, the δ~(13)C values of C-3 plant species in deserts are often between - 22‰ ～ -24‰; the δ~(13)C values in the cold mountain district concentrate on the range of -24.0‰ to -29.0‰, with the average of -26.3‰. 4. The main range of δ~(13)C composition of C-4 plant species, derived from Beijing, a semi-moist district, are -13.0‰ ～ -15.5‰; the semi-arid district, -11.0‰ ～ -14.0‰; the arid district, -11.0‰ ～ -14.0‰. The mean values of them are -14.0‰, -12.4‰,-12.7‰, respectively. 5. From east to west in North China, δ~(13)C values of C-3 plant species increase with longitude. The correlation between δ~(13)C ratios of C-3 plant species and longitude is linear. Changing temperate and precipitation and changing atmosphere pressure are spossible explanations. 6. Almost all C-3 plant species have the trends that their δ~(13)C values gradually increase with decreasing precipitation, decreasing temperature and increasing altitude. Our results show the increases of the δ~(13)C value by 0.30 ～ 0.45‰, 0.19 ～ 0.27‰ and 1.1 ～ 1.2‰ per 100 mm, I℃ and 1000 m, respectively, for all C-3 plant species together. 7. The δ~(13)C values of all C-3 plant species together and a part of C-3 species show highly significant linear correlation with the mean annual temperature, the mean annual precipitation and the altitude, and the results suggest that they can be used as proxies of these environmental variables, while, those without highly significant correlation, may be not suitable as the proxies. 8. The extent, which of responses of δ~(13)C composition to environmental variables, is different for each C-3 plant specie. 9. The δ~(13)C variations along altitude and longitude may be non-linear for C-4 p1ant species in North China. The mean annual temperature may be not important influential factor, thus, it suggests that the δ~(13)C composition of C-4 plant species may be not suitable as the proxy of the mean annual temperature. The influences of summer temperature on δ~(13)C values are much bigger than that of annual temperature, among them, the influence of September temperature is biggest. The mean annual precipitation may be one of the dominant influential factors, and it shows a highly significant non-linear relationship with δ~(13)C values, and the result indicates that δ~(13) C composition of C-4 plant species can be employed as the proxy of the mean annual precipitation. 10. The variations of δ~(13)C ratios do not show systematic trends along longitude, latitude and altitude for modern surface soil organic in Northwest China. ll. The δ~(13)C ratios of modern surface soil organic do not exhibit systematic patterns with temperature and precipitation in Northwest China, it suggests that, unless soil organic is transferred from pure C-3 or C-4 vegetation, the δ~(13)C composition of soil organic may be not used as proxies of climatic variables. 12. The δ~(13)C values of modem surface soil organic are heavier than that of standing vegetation, and the difference ofrnean δ~(13)C between them is -2.18‰. 13. Without considering the δ~(13)C difference between vegetation and soil organic, as well as the δ~(13)C drift in various enviromnent, we may not obtain the valuable information of C-3, C-4 relative biomass in vegetation. 14. The C-4 biomass contribution in vegetation increase with decreasing latitude, increasing longitude and decreasing altitude in Northwest China. The C-4 biomass almost are zero in those regions north to 38 ° N, or west to 100°E, or above 2400 m. 15. The C-4 relative biomass in vegetation increase with growing temperature and precipitation. and, C-4 plants are rare at those regions where the mean annual temperature is less 4 ℃, or the mean annual precipitation is less 200 mm, and their biomass contribution in vegetation are almost zero. Both the mean annual temperature and the mean annual average precipitation may be the important influential factors of C-4 distribution, but the dominant factors.

Limiting States Of Internal Wave Rays

Existing models of baroclinic tides are based upon the "traditional approximation'', i. e., neglect of the horizontal component of the Earth's rotation, leading to a well- known conclusion that no freely propagating internal waves can exist beyond the critical latitude and the wave rays are symmetric to the vertical. However, recent studies have contended that the situation may change if both the vertical and horizontal components of the Earth's rotation are taken into account. With the full account of the Coriolis force, characteristics of the internal wavefield generated by tidal flow over uneven topography are investigated. It is found that "nontraditional effects'' profoundly change not only the dynamics of internal waves but also the rate at which the barotropic tidal energy is fed into the internal wavefield. Discarding the traditional approximation, internal waves are proved to be able to generate poleward of the critical latitude, rays of which are no longer symmetric and the limiting values of ray angles become greater or less than 90 degrees, depending on the local latitude and the direction of ray. More importantly, in contrast to the predictions of models based upon the traditional approximation, a substantial conversion occurs in the situations when stratification is so weak that the buoyancy frequency is below the tidal one.

Lack of latitudinal trends in wood anatomy of Dodonaea viscosa (Sapindaceae), a species with a worldwide distribution

Latitudinal or altitudinal variation in several anatomical characters of wood is common for woody dicotyledonous genera with a wide distribution, but whether such variation exists at the species level is disputed. Latitudinal and altitudinal trends in wood anatomy of Dodonaea viscosa were studied, using 102 samples collected between 41.2degrees S and 33.3degrees N latitude and 7-2750 in altitude. We studied variation in four quantitative features: vessel element length, fiber length, vessel frequency, and tangential vessel diameter. Ontogenetic trends were minimal with a slight decrease or increase in the innermost stem and were negligible among the studied specimens. Throughout the distributional range of the species, no latitudinal trends were detected in either the Northern or Southern Hemispheres, Altitudinal trends were also nonexistent, except for two features in specimens from China and Japan. Absence of latitudinal or altitudinal trends in this widely distributed species suggests that in some species the species-level variation in wood anatomy is not controlled by ecological gradients.

太阳辐射对热层和电离层变化性的影响

Solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation at wavelengths less than 400 nm is an important source of energy for aeronomic processes throughout the solar system. Solar UV photons are absorbed in planetary atmospheres, as well as throughout the heliosphere, via photodissociation of molecules, photoionization of molecules and atoms, and photoexcitation toexcitation including resonance scattering. In this paper, the solar irradiances data measured by TIMED SEE, as well as the solar proxies such as F10.7 and Mg II, thermosphere neutral density of CHAMP measurements and topside ionospheric plasmas densities from DMSP, are used to analyze solar irradiance effects on the variabilities of the thermosphere and the ionosphere. First, thermosphere densities near 410 km altitude are analyzed for solar irradiance variability effects during the period 2002-2004. Correlations between the densities and the solar irradiances for different spectral lines and wavelength ranges reveal significantly different characteristics. The density correlates remarkably well with all the selected solar irradiances except the lower chromospheric O I (130.4 nm) emission. Among the chosen solar proxies, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio index, EUV (30-120 nm) and F10.7 show the highest correlations with the density for short-term (< ~27 days) variations. For both long- (> ~27 days) and short-term variations, linear correlation coefficients exhibit a decreasing trend from low latitudes towards high latitudes. The density variability can be effectively modeled (capturing 71% of the variance) using multiple solar irradiance indices, including F10.7, SEUV (the EUV 30-120 nm index), and SFUV (the FUV 120-193 nm index), in which a lag time of 1 day was used for both F10.7 and SEUV, and 5 days for SFUV. In our regression formulation SEUV has the largest contribution to the density variation (40%), with the F10.7 having the next largest contribution (32%) and SFUV accounting for the rest (28%). Furthermore, a pronounced period of about 27.2 days (mean period of the Sun's rotation) is present in both density and solar irradiance data of 2003 and 2004, and a pronounced period of about 54.4 days (doubled period of the solar rotation) is also revealed in 2004. However, soft X-ray and FUV irradiances did not present a pronounced 54.4 day period in 2004, in spite of their high correlation with the densities. The Ap index also shows 54-day periodicities in 2004, and magnetic activity, together with solar irradiance, affects the 54-day variation in density significantly. In addition, NRLMSISE00, DTM-2000 and JB2006 model predictions are compared with density measurements from CHAMP to assess their accuracy, and the results show that these models underestimate the response of the thermosphere to variations induced by solar rotation. Next, the equatorial topside ionospheric plasmas densities Ni are analyzed for solar irradiance variability effects during the period 2002-2005. Linear correlations between Ni and the solar irradiances for different wavelength ranges reveal significantly different characteristics. XUV (0-35 nm) and EUV (115-130 nm) show higher correlation with Ni for the long-term variations, whereas EUV (35-115 nm) show higher correlation for the short-term variations. Moreover, partial correlation analysis shows that the long-term variations of Ni are affected by both XUV (0-35 nm) and EUV (35-115 nm), whereas XUV (0-35 nm) play a more important role; the short-term variations of Ni are mostly affected by EUV (35-115 nm). Furthermore, a pronounced period of about 27 days is present in both Ni and solar irradiance data of 2003 and 2004, and a pronounced period of about 54 days is also revealed in 2004. Finally, prompted by previous studies that have suggested solar EUV radiation as a means of driving the semiannual variation, we investigate the intra-annual variation in thermosphere neutral density near 400 km during 2002-2005. The intra-annual variation, commonly referred to as the ‘semiannual variation’, is characterized by significant latitude structure, hemispheric asymmetries, and inter-annual variability. The magnitude of the maximum yearly difference, from the yearly minimum to the yearly maximum, varies by as much as 60% from year to year, and the phases of the minima and maxima also change by 20-40 days from year to year. Each annual harmonic of the intra-annual variation, namely, annual, semiannual, ter-annual and quatra-annual, exhibits a decreasing trend from 2002 through 2005 that is correlated with the decline in solar activity. In addition, some variations in these harmonics are correlated with geomagnetic activity, as represented by the daily mean value of Kp. Recent empirical models of the thermosphere are found to be deficient in capturing most of the latitude dependencies discovered in our data. In addition, the solar flux and geomagnetic activity proxies that we have employed do not capture some latitude and inter-annual variations detected in our data. It is possible that these variations are partly due to other effects, such as seasonal-latitudinal variations in turbopause altitude (and hence O/N2 composition) and ionosphere coupling processes that remain to be discovered in the context of influencing the intra-annual variations depicted here. Our results provide a new dataset to challenge and validate thermosphere-ionosphere general circulation models that seek to delineate the thermosphere intra-annual variation and to understand the various competing mechanisms that may contribute to its existence and variability. We furthermore suggest that the term “intra-annual” variation be adopted to describe the variability in thermosphere and ionosphere parameters that is well-captured through a superposition of annual, semiannual, ter-annual, and quatra-annual harmonic terms, and that “semiannual’ be used strictly in reference to a pure 6-monthly sinusoidal variation. Moreover, we propose the term “intra-seasonal” to refer to those shorter-term variations that arise as residuals from the above Fourier representation.

中低纬电离层暴的统计分析与经验建模

As a key issue of ionospheric weather study, systemic studies on ionospheric storms can not only further improve our understanding of the response of the ionosphere to solar and geomagnetic disturbances, but also help us to reveal the chemical, dynamic and electro-dynamic mechanisms during storms. Empirical modelling for regional ionospheric storm is also very useful, because it can provide us with tools and references for the forecasting and further practical application of ionospheric activity. In this thesis, we focus on describing and forecasting of ionospheric storms at middle and low latitudes. The main points of my investigations are listed as follows. (1) By using magnetic storms during the period over 50 years, the dependence of the type, onset time and time delay of the ionospheric storms on magnetic latitude, season and local time at middle and low latitudes in the East-Asian sector are studied. The results show that the occurrences of the types of ionospheric disturbances differ in latitude and season. The onset of the ionospheric storms depends on local time. At middle latitudes, most negative phase onsets are within the local time interval from night to early morning, and they rarely occurred in the local noon and afternoon sectors. At low latitudes, positive phases commence most frequently in the daytime sector as well as pre-midnight sector. The average time delays for both the positive and negative ionospheric storms increase with descending latitudes. The time delay has significant dependence on the local time of main phase onset (MPO). The time delay of positive response is shorter for daytime MPO and longer for night-time MPO, whereas the opposite applies for negative response. (2) Based on some previous researches, a primary empirical model for mid-latitude ionospheric disturbance is set up. By fitting to the observed data, we get a high accuracy with a mean RMSE of only 12-14% in summer and equinox. The model output has been compared with the output of STORM model, and the results show that, our model is much better than STORM in summer and a little better for some mid-latitude stations at equinox. Especially, for the type of two-step geomagnetic storm, our model can present twice descending of foF2 very well. In addition, our model can forecast positive ionospheric storms.