The Obduction of Equatorial 13 degrees C Water in the Pacific Identified by a Simulated Passive Tracer

The obduction of equatorial 13 degrees C Water in the Pacific is investigated using a simulated passive tracer of the Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO). The result shows that the 13 degrees C Water initialized in the region 8 degrees N-8 degrees S, 130 degrees-90 degrees W enters the surface mixed layer in the eastern tropical Pacific, mainly through upwelling near the equator, in the Costa Rica Dome, and along the coast of Peru. Approximately two-thirds of this obduction occurs within 10 years after the 13 degrees C Water being initialized, with the upper portion of the water mass reaching the surface mixed layer in only about a month. The obduction of the 13 degrees C Water helps to maintain a cool sea surface temperature year-round, equivalent to a surface heat flux of about -6.0 W m(-2) averaged over the eastern tropical Pacific (15 degrees S-15 degrees N, 130 degrees W-eastern boundary) for the period of integration (1993-2006). During El Nino years, when the thermocline deepens as a consequence of the easterly wind weakening, the obduction of the 13 degrees C Water is suppressed, and the reduced vertical entrainment generates a warming anomaly of up to 10 W m(-2) in the eastern tropical Pacific and in particular along the coast of Peru, providing explanations for the warming of sea surface temperature that cannot be accounted for by local winds alone. The situation is reversed during La Nina years.

El Nino phenomenon in simple ocean data assimilation data

To study how the air and sea interact with each other during El Nino/La Nina onsets, extended associate pattern analysis (EAPA) is adopted with the simple ocean data assimilation (SODA) data. The results show that as El Nino/La Nina's parents their behaviors are quite different, there does not exist a relatively independent tropical atmosphere but does exist a relatively independent tropical Pacific Ocean because the air is heated from the bottom surface instead of the top surface and of much stronger baroclinic instability than the sea and has a very large inter-tropical convergence zone covering the most tropical Pacific Ocean. The idea that it is the wester burst and wind convergence, coming from middle latitudes directly that produce the seawater eastward movement and meridional convergence in the upper levels and result in the typical El Nino sea surface temperature warm signal is confirmed again.

Mixed-layer water oscillations in tropical Pacific for ENSO cycle

The main modes of interannal variabilities of thermocline and sea surface wind stress in the tropical Pacific and their interactions are investigated, which show the following results. (1) The thermocline anomalies in the tropical Pacific have a zonal dipole pattern with 160 W as its axis and a meridional seesaw pattern with 6-8 degrees N as its transverse axis. The meridional oscillation has a phase lag of about 90 to the zonal oscillation, both oscillations get together to form the El Nino/La Nina cycle, which behaves as a mixed layer water oscillates anticlockwise within the tropical Pacific basin between equator and 12 degrees N. (2) There are two main patterns of wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific, of which the first component caused by trade wind anomaly is characterized by the zonal wind stress anomalies and its corresponding divergences field in the equatorial Pacific, and the abnormal cross- equatorial flow wind stress and its corresponding divergence field, which has a sign opposite to that of the equatorial region, in the off-equator of the tropical North Pacific, and the second component represents the wind stress anomalies and corresponding divergences caused by the ITCZ anomaly. (3) The trade winds anomaly plays a decisive role in the strength and phase transition of the ENSO cycle, which results in the sea level tilting, provides an initial potential energy to the mixed layer water oscillation, and causes the opposite thermocline displacement between the west side and east side of the equator and also between the equator and 12 degrees N of the North Pacific basin, therefore determines the amplitude and route for ENSO cycle. The ITCZ anomaly has some effects on the phase transition. (4) The thermal anomaly of the tropical western Pacific causes the wind stress anomaly and extends eastward along the equator accompanied with the mixed layer water oscillation in the equatorial Pacific, which causes the trade winds anomaly and produces the anomalous wind stress and the corresponding divergence in favor to conduce the oscillation, which in turn intensifies the oscillation. The coupled system of ocean-atmosphere interactions and the inertia gravity of the mixed layer water oscillation provide together a phase-switching mechanism and interannual memory for the ENSO cycle. In conclusion, the ENSO cycle essentially is an inertial oscillation of the mixed layer water induced by both the trade winds anomaly and the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific basin between the equator and 12 degrees N. When the force produced by the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction is larger than or equal to the resistance caused by the mixed layer water oscillation, the oscillation will be stronger or maintain as it is, while when the force is less than the resistance, the oscillation will be weaker, even break.

北太平洋低纬度西边界流的时空特征和变异规律研究

北太平洋低纬度西边界流连接着太平洋热带环流和副热带环流，对于世界大洋经向质量、热量和盐量输送起着重要的作用，对北赤道流（NEC）、源区黑潮（KC）和棉兰老流（MC）的时空特征和变异规律进行研究，对认识北太平洋西边界流海洋在全球气候系统中的作用具有重要的理论和实践意义。 本文利用1957-2006年共50年的涡解高分辨率OFES（OGCM for the Earth Simulator）海洋模式资料，对北太平洋低纬度西边界流的时空特征和变异规律进行了分析，结果表明： （1）涡解高分辨率的OFES模式数据结果较SODA能更好地刻画NMK流系三维空间结构的分布特征；黑潮源区涡结构的变化，MUC、 LUC及NEC下的东向流也得到了较好的刻画；其空间结构与实测结果相吻合。 （2）北太平洋低纬度西边界流NMK流系流量具有明显的季节、年际和年代际变化，NEC、KC和MC流量的变化周期频谱较宽,主要为3－6个月的季节振荡和2-7年左右ENSO尺度周期以及10年以上周期的年代际变化。MC主要表现为准两年周期振荡。 （3）NEC、MC流量变化表现为单峰型分布，春季最大（5月），秋季最小（11月）；KC流量的变化为双峰型，大值出现在春季和夏末秋初，春季最大（4月），秋季次之，冬季最小（1月）。在季节时间尺度上，NEC、MC流量同相变化，除冬季外，KC与MC输运反向。 （4） 在年际时间尺度上，受北赤道流流量变化的影响，NEC与KC、MC流量之间为正相关关系；KC与MC分配量（北赤道流向北、向南的经向分配量）之间则为强的负相关关系，其年际异常变化与NEC分叉位置的变化和冷、暖ENSO事件发生密切相关。分叉位置偏北（南）时，KC分配量小（大）而MC分配量大（小）；在El Nino年，KC分配量小，MC分配量大，La Nina年情况则刚好相反。 （5）在年代际时间尺度上，在70年代末气候跃变以后，NEC、KC和MC流量明显减少，NMK环流系统减弱。NEC的减弱主要受上世纪80年代以后ENSO暖事件发生频率和强度的增加所影响，而KC和MC的减弱则主要受NEC减弱控制。同时发现，NEC分叉位置存有明显的年代际变化，在气候跃变以后有长期偏北的趋势，受其影响，与之相对应的是北赤道流向南经向分配量的增加和向北流量分配率的减少。 关键词：北太平洋，低纬度西边界流，北赤道流分叉，ENSO

大气季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响研究

利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射（OLR）等资料，应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法，研究了东亚夏季风(EASM）的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下： （1）综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数，并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现，气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率，主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起，造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化，在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变，造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 （2）东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期，以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态，第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势；第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制，主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势；第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 （3）热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此，在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下，大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播，副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区，乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主；北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 （4）季风爆发期，伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋， 冷空气向南输送，10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下，ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋（EAP）以及太平洋-北美（PNA）低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强，东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态，30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性；30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 （5）30-60d滤波场，菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时，季风槽加强、东伸，季风槽内热带气旋（TC）频数增加；当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时，季风槽减弱、西退，TC处于间歇期，生成位置不集中。 （6）在El Nino态下，大气季节内振荡偏弱，北传特征不明显，但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主，EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域，常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现，易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害，长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下，大气季节内振荡活跃，且具有明显的向北传播特征，PNA低频波列显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主；EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区，这些地区出现异常持续强降水，华南和淮河流域多干旱；在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期，ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主，长江中下游常常出现二度梅。