An application of the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy logic inference in a decision support system for forage selection

Forage selection plays a prominent role in the process of returning cultivated lands back into grasslands. The conventional method of selecting forage species can only provide attempts for problem-solving without considering the relationships among the decision factors globally. Therefore, this study is dedicated to developing a decision support system to help farmers correctly select suitable forage species for the target sites. After collecting data through a field study, we developed this decision support system. It consists of three steps: (1) the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), (2) weights determination, and (3) decision making. In the first step, six factors influencing forage growth were selected by reviewing the related references and by interviewing experts. Then a fuzzy matrix was devised to determine the weight of each factor in the second step. Finally, a gradual alternative decision support system was created to help farmers choose suitable forage species for their lands in the third step. The results showed that the AHP and fuzzy logic are useful for forage selection decision making, and the proposed system can provide accurate results in a certain area (Gansu Province) of China.

公共政策制定程序对政策可接受性的影响

This research addresses the problems of public policy-making procedures. In conducting our research, we considered public policy as the allocation or reallocation of interests or resources among different members of the public. Due to limited resources, administrations should trade off all interests among different segments of society when formulating a policy. Unfortunately, in recent years there have been several mass conflicts with administration of public policy. This infers that some people’s interests were ignored or harmed by certain policies. According to the theory of procedural justice, people may accept the unexpected result if they consider the procedure is just. This research hypothesizes that there are certain problems in current policy-making procedures and that improving these procedures may make policies more acceptable. A pilot study was conducted by interviewing ten scholars from a range of disciplines. The interview record transcripts were coded by three analysts. The results indicate that: 1) Most of the scholars criticized current public policies as lacking sensitivity to public issues; 2) Most of them considered that current public policies do not resolve problems effectively; and 3) They all considered that psychology research may enhance awareness of public issues and improve the effectiveness of policy. In study 2, the procedure of public policy was tracked and compared with a social survey. The Beijing government would like to increase the taxi fare rate to cope with the rising price of petroleum. Although the majority of delegates in a hearing of witnesses supported the policy consideration, the social survey of 186 residents and 63 taxi drivers indicated that both of them oppose the consideration. The findings indicate that the hearing of witnesses was not able to delegate the opinions of the public, resulting in the policy failing to resolve the problem. Study 3 was a nonequivalent control group quasi-experiment. Visitors of two Internet Website were chosen as subjects for original photo games. For the experiment group, visitors were invited to express their desires and suggestions on the game rules for one week, and then declare rules referencing the suggestions before starting the game. Meanwhile, the control group simply declared the rules at the beginning of the game. Compared with the two games during 23 days, the experiment group submitted more photos than the control group. The results of this research imply that, the good will of policy makers is not enough to make a policy effective. Surveys on public attitudes at the beginning of the policy-making process can allow policy makers to better determine public issues, assess the tradeoff of public interests, help ensure policies are more acceptable, and help foster a harmonious society. The authors of this research suggest that psychology research should take more social level problems into account in the policy-making process.

员工的组织支持感和工作压力对工作结果变量的作用——中国民航管制员研究

Both perceived organizational support and job stresses have impact on employees’ work outcomes. Great progresses have been made in past researches. However, there are many disputes about the impact of perceived organizational support (POS) on job performance (especially, safety performance), the impact of job stresses on job performance (especially, safety performance) and job attitudes, as well as the interaction of subordinates’ POS and job stresses, and the impact of supervisor on subordinates’ POS et al.. Thus, the aim of the study is to explore the impact of supervisors’ POS, leader-member exchange(LMX) on subordinates’ POS, the direct impact of subordinates’ POS and job stressors from task and rewards on work attitudes(job satisfaction, turnover intention) and safety behaviors(safety compliance and safety participation), and the interaction of subordinates’ POS and job stresses. Analyses are based on the data from interviewing of 20 staff, posts of a Chinese civil aviation Bulletin Board System (BBS) and surveys of 216 subordinates and 42 supervisors from two Chinese civil aviation Air traffic control centers (ATC). The major findings are listed as follows: Firstly, the exchange relationship between supervisors and members has impact on subordinates’ POS by the fully mediating role of subordinates’ perceived supervisor support (PSS). But supervisors’ POS have no impact on subordinates’ POS. Secondly, subordinates’ POS has a direct and positive impact on their job satisfaction and safety behaviors, and a negative impact on turnover intention. Specifically, the higher the employees’ perceived organizational support, the higher job satisfaction and safety behaviors, as well as the lower turnover intention they have. Moreover, POS has stronger relationship with safety participation behaviors than that of safety compliance behaviors. Thirdly, task-related stressor has no significant impact on job satisfaction, turnover intention and safety behaviors. And compensation-related stressor has significant and positive impact on turnover intention and safety behaviors, which means that with the compensation-related stress increases, turnover intention increases, safety behaviors including safety compliance and safety participation also increases. Fourthly, POS and task-related stressor, POS and compensation-related stressor have significant interaction, respectively. Specifically, POS moderates the relationship between task-related stressor and job satisfaction, and between task-related stressor and turnover intention. Moreover, POS also moderates the relationship between compensation-related stressor and safety compliance behaviors.

应用多质—多评价者程序对评定误差的分析

Two kinds of rating bias ——halo effect and ego-centric effect were analyzed in multitrait-multirater matrix by this research. To get the multitrait-multirater matrix, ten college students watched the video-tapes of football matches and rated the performance of the players on several traits. After the interviewing of 41 football fans, the performance traits of four different positions in a football team were obtained using critical incident technique. The results indicate: comparing the heterotrait-monorater triangless, some rater's rating showed halo effect obviously; comparing the monotrait-heterorater diagonals, ego-centric effect can be shown in some extent on different traits. There were less interrater reliability on the rating of some ambiguous traits. The conclusion can be used on rater training. We can give the raters feedback about their rating bias by analyzing the multitrait-multirater matrix. The results are also helpful for rater training.