6 resultados para Holt-Winters

em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal


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根据葛洲坝(1998~2007年)、重庆(2006~2007年)和合江江段(1998~2005年)的渔业资源调查资料,对圆口铜鱼的种群死亡特征进行了评估,并利用Beverton-Holt模型的单位补充量渔获量方程,分析和探讨了长江中上游圆口铜鱼资源的合理利用。结果表明:1)3个江段各年间的圆口铜鱼开发率和捕捞死亡系数均远远大于相应年份最大允许的开发率和捕捞标准的基准尺度F0.1,3个江段的圆口铜鱼资源均处于严重过度捕捞状况;2)葛洲坝江段圆口铜鱼的最适开捕年龄为4龄(体长330mm),重庆和合江江段圆口铜

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以34种中国淡水鱼类和近海鱼类的生态参数为基础,建立logistic回归模型。利用该模型研究长江上游龙溪河厚颌鲂的生活史类型,然后用平衡产量模型进行验证,并探讨合理开发龙溪河厚颌鲂种群资源的渔业管理措施。结果表明:logistic回归模型估算出厚颌鲂属于k选择鱼类的概率为13%,判别标准为29%,因此厚颌鲂应该属于r选择鱼类;Beverton-Holt产量模型分析结果显示厚颌鲂平衡产量曲线与典型的r选择鱼类尖头塘鳢极为类似;捕捞死亡系数和起捕年龄的变化对产量曲线有显著影响,因此限制捕捞量和网目大小是控制过

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根据 1 996— 1 999年长江中上游渔业资源监测资料 ,分析了青鱼、草鱼、鲢、鳙、铜鱼、圆口铜鱼、长吻、河鲶、瓦氏黄颡鱼、鲤等 1 0种主要经济鱼类的渔业生物学特性 ,并应用vonBertalanffy公式、Key公式、Beverton Holt公式等估计了生长参数、总死亡系数、自然死亡系数、捕捞死亡系数、总存活率、总死亡率、自然死亡率、捕捞死亡率和开发率 ,讨论了资源的开发状况 ,针对存在的问题 ,提出了渔业管理意见。

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Spatial distribution of some large tintinnid species (nominally > 76 mu m) is investigated on samples vertically towed in the southern Yellow Sea in winters of 2001 to 2004. Nine tintinnid species are recorded: Codonellopsis morchella, Stenosemella pacifica, S. steini, Tintinnopsis schotti, T. radix, T. karajacensis, Eutintinnus tenuis, Parafavella sp., Leprotintinnus neriticus, of which C. morchella and T. radix dominated in the warm tongue-shaped zone of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC), and S. pacifica is the next in abundance. Our study shows that these tintinnids occur repeatedly in certain special distribution patterns.

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We investigated how the high small-scale species richness of an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China, is maintained. This area is characterized by strong wind and severe cold during long winters. In winter, most livestock is grazed on dead leaves in small pastures near farmers' residences, whereas in the short summer, livestock is grazed in mountainous areas far from farmers' residences. The number of plant species and the aboveground biomass were surveyed for three adjacent pastures differing in grazing management: a late-winter grazing pasture grazed moderately from 1 February to 30 April, an early-winter grazing pasture grazed lightly from 20 September to late October, and a whole-year grazing pasture grazed intensively throughout the entire year. In each pasture, we harvested the aboveground biomass from 80 or 100 quadrats of 0.01 m(2) along a transect and classified the contents by species. We observed 15.5-19.7 species per 0.01 m(2), which is high richness per 0.01 m(2) on a worldwide scale. The species richness in the two winter grazing pastures was higher than that in the whole-year grazing pasture. The spatial variation in species richness and species composition in the two winter grazing pastures in which species richness was high was greater than that in the whole-year grazing pasture in which species richness was lower. Most of the leaves that are preserved on the winter grazing pastures during summer are blown away by strong winds during winter, and the remaining leaves are completely exhausted in winter by livestock grazing. A pasture with a high richess is accompanied by a high spatial variation in species richness and species composition. There is a high possibility that the characteristic of spatial variation is also caused by traditional grazing practices in this area.

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Glaciers in west China are the sources of the major great rivers in Asia, and the solid water resources are crucial to China and South Asia. Black carbon (BC) results in very complex climate effects not only in the atmosphere, but accelerates the melting after its deposit on the surface of snow/ice. As the main distributed area of glaciers in China, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Xinjiang region are abutted by South Asia, Central Asia, and Russia, and east China, and the atmospheric environment would be influenced by the BC emitted from these regions. Whereas, the BC’s temporal and spatial distributions for concentration in the mid and top troposphere in west China, its transport, and its radiative forcing after deposited on the snow/ice surface are not well understood at the present. In the field, we collected samples from surface snow, snow pits, ice core, and aerosol in the glaciers, analyzed BC content mainly by the thermo-oxidized method in the laboratory, and discussed temporal and spatial distributions for BC concentrations in glaciers, the transport, and its impacts on the environment. Several conclusions were derived as follows: 1_Spatial distribution and the impact on albedos for BC concentrations in snow/ice: the BC concentrations in the surface snow for the investigated glaciers could be placed in areas, the Tianshan Mountains > the central TP > the Pamirs > the Qilian Mountians > the Himalayas. This distribution could be attributed to the elevation of the glaciers, the topography of the TP, and more regional emissions. Probably significant impacts on the albedos of the glacier surface could be caused by BC deposits, and the estimated reduced albedos on the glaciers are 9.8% (the Zhadang glacier), 8.7% (the Miao’ergou Riverhead No.3 glacier), and 6.8% (the Kuitun River Haxilegen No.48 glacier), and 6.2% (the Dongkemadi glacier), and 5.3% (the La’nong glacier), and 4.2% (the Muztagata glacier), etc. 2_The temporal variance of BC concentrations in ice of the East Rongbuk Glacier (ERG) and its climatic implications: major cations and anions (e.g., SO42- and Ca2+) concentrations in aerosols during summer monsoon seasons showed their close relationships with the sources of air masses, in which the variance of SO42- concentrations suggested the atmospheric environment over the ERG was significantly influenced by the aerosols from South Asia. BC record based on an ice core suggested its deposit was dominantly transported by monsoons in summers and by westerlies in other seasons, and the BC from South Asia in summers dominated the varying trend of its concentrations in the ice core and caused higher concentrations in summers than those in other seasons. In the past 50 yrs, BC concentrations showed fluctuations, whereas showed an increasing tread in the most recent decade, and exceeded 50 μg kg-1 in the summer of 2001; correspondingly, the radiative forcing caused by BC showed an increasing trend since 1990s, and exceeded 4.5 W m-2 in the summer of 2001. 3_Cabonaceous aerosols in the Nam Co region: organic carbon (OC) concentration accounted for ~95% and BC for ~5% in the total carbonaceous aerosol concentration, which was significantly influenced by summer precipitations. OC was dominantly derived from fossil fuel burning and BC from both fossil fuel and biomass burning. Trajectory analysis and aerosol optical depth suggested the atmospheric environment in the Nam Co region was most probably influenced by the emissions from South Asia. The potential source regions of air pollutants in the Nam Co regions in summers might be Bangladesh and east India, and in winters might be the Indo-gangetic basin. The scavenging ratio of atmospheric BC by rainfalls was less than those at other sites. West China is a less-developed region for industry, where BC concentrations in the atmosphere and snow/ice could be significantly influenced by the emissions from the abutted regions with rising industries (South Asia, Central Asia, and Russia). For example, snow/ice BC concentrations in the glaciers of the Parmirs, the Tianshan Mountains, and the Qilian Mountains in the northeast margin of the TP might be more influenced by the emissions from Centrial Asia (transported by the westerlies), those in the glaciers of the Himalayas might be more influenced by the emissions from South Asia (transported by the monsoons and the westerlies), and atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols might also be more influenced by the emissions from South Asia (transported by the monsoons and the westerlies). The BC concentrations in some glaciers might cause significant impacts on the albedos for the glaciers, and therefore enhanced the radiative forcings, for example, the ERG. The research on the relationships among atmospheric and snow/ice BC and its radiative forcing, variance of snow cover, mass balance of glaciers, and climate forcing would be needed in future.