Equatorial pacific SSTA-related decadal variations of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate

Based on analysis of NCEP reanalysis data and SST indices of the recent 50 years, decadal changes of the potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies were investigated. Autocorrelation of Nino3 SST anomalies (SSTA) and correlation between atmospheric anomalies fields and Nino3 SSTA exhibit obvious variation in different decades, which indicates that Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies has significant decadal changes. Time around 1977 is not only a shift point of climate on the interdecadal time scale but also a catastrophe point of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate. As a whole, ENSO and the PNA pattern in boreal winter are more predictable in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s, while the Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of the Indian monsoon and the East Asian Monsoon is lower in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s.

Effect of low-frequency Rossby wave on thermal structure of the upper southwestern tropical Indian Ocean

We investigate the influence of low-frequency Rossby waves on the thermal structure of the upper southwestern tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO) using Argo profiles, satellite altimetric data, sea surface temperature, wind field data and the theory of linear vertical normal mode decomposition. Our results show that the SWTIO is generally dominated by the first baroclinic mode motion. As strong downwelling Rossby waves reach the SWTIO, the contribution of the second baroclinic mode motion in this region can be increased mainly because of the reduction in the vertical stratification of the upper layer above thermocline, and the enhancement in the vertical stratification of the lower layer under thermocline also contributes to it. The vertical displacement of each isothermal is enlarged and the thermal structure of the upper level is modulated, which is indicative of strong vertical mixing. However, the cold Rossby waves increase the vertical stratification of the upper level, restricting the variability related to the second baroclinic mode. On the other hand, during decaying phase of warm Rossby waves, Ekman upwelling and advection processes associated with the surface cyclonic wind circulation can restrain the downwelling processes, carrying the relatively colder water to the near-surface, which results in an out-of-phase phenomenon between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) in the SWTIO.

The variability of eddy kinetic energy in the South China Sea deduced from satellite altimeter data

We used fifteen years (1993-2007) of altimetric data, combined from different missions (ERS-1/2, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Envisat), to analyze the variability of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the South China Sea (SCS). We found that the EKE ranged from 64 cm(2)/s(2) to 1 390 cm(2)/s(2) with a mean value of 314 cm(2)/s(2). The highest EKE center was observed to the east of Vietnam (with a mean value of 509 cm(2)/s(2)) and the second highest EKE region was located to the southwest of Taiwan Island (with a mean value of 319 cm(2)/s(2)). We also found that the EKE structure is the consequence of the superposition of different variability components. First, interannual variability is important in the SCS. Spectral analysis of the EKE interannual signal (IA-EKE) shows that the main periodicities of the IA-EKE to the east of Vietnam, to the southwest of Taiwan Island, and in the SCS are 3.75, 1.87, and 3.75 years, respectively. It is to the south of Taiwan Island that the IA-EKE signal has the most obvious impact on EKE variability. In addition, the IA-EKE exhibit different trends in different regions. An obvious positive trend is observed along the east coast of Vietnam, while a negative trend is found to the southwest of Taiwan Island and in the east basin of Vietnam. Correlation analysis shows that the IA-EKE has an obvious negative correlation with the SSTA in Nio3 (5A degrees S-5A degrees N, 90A degrees W-150A degrees W). El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the IA-EKE variability in the SCS through an atmospheric bridge-wind stress curl over the SCS. Second, the seasonal cycle is the most obvious timescale affecting EKE variability. The locations of the most remarkable EKE seasonal variabilities in the SCS are to the east of Vietnam, to the southwest of Taiwan, and to the west of Philippines. To the east of Vietnam, the seasonal cycle is the dominant mechanism controlling EKE variability, which is attributed primarily to the annual cycle there of wind stress curl. In this area, the maximum EKE is observed in autumn. To the southwest of Taiwan Island, the EKE is enlarged by the stronger SCS circulation, which is caused by the intrusion branch from the Kuroshio in winter. Finally, intra-annual and mesoscale variability, although less important than the former, cannot be neglected. The most obvious intra-annual and mesoscale variability, which may be the result of baroclinic instability of the background flow, are observed to the southwest of Taiwan Island. Sporadic events can have an important effect on EKE variability.

EAWM-related air-sea-land interaction and the Asian summer monsoon circulation

Based on the data analysis, this study further explores the characteristics of East Asian winter monsoon (hereafter, EAWM, for brevity) as well as the related air-sea-land system, and illustrates how and to what degree anomalous signals of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon are rooted in the preceding EAWM activity. We identified an important air-sea coupled mode, i.e., the EAWM mode illustrated in Section 3. In cold seasons, strong EAWM-related air-sea two-way interaction is responsible for the development and persistence of the SSTA pattern of EAWM mode. As a consequence, the key regions, i.e., the western Pacific and South China Sea (hereafter, SCS, for brevity), are dominated by such an SSTA pattern from the winter to the following summer. In the strong EAWM years, the deficient snow cover dominates eastern Tibetan Plateau in winter, and in spring, this anomaly pattern is further strengthened and extended to the northwestern side of Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the combined effect of strong EAWM-related SSTA and Tibetan snow cover constitutes an important factor in modulating the Asian monsoon circulation. The active role of the EAWM activity as well as the related air-sea-land interaction would, in the subsequent seasons, lead to: 1) the enhancement of SCS monsoon and related stronger rainfall; 2) the northward displacement of subtropical high during Meiyu period and the related deficient rainfall over Meiyu rainband; 3) above-normal precipitation over the regions from northern Japan to northeastern China in summer; 4) more rainfall over the Arabian Sea and Northeast India, while less rainfall over southwest India and the Bay of Bengal. The strong EAWM-related air-sea interaction shows, to some degree, precursory signals to the following Asian summer monsoon. However, the mechanism for the variability of Indian summer monsoon subsequent to the strong EAWM years remains uncertain.

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model and ENSO prediction study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

Comparison of nonlinear and linear PCA on surface wind, surface height, and SST in the South China Sea

We compared nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA) with linear principal component analysis (LPCA) with the data of sea surface wind anomalies (SWA), surface height anomalies (SSHA), and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), taken in the South China Sea (SCS) between 1993 and 2003. The SCS monthly data for SWA, SSHA and SSTA (i.e., the anomalies with climatological seasonal cycle removed) were pre-filtered by LPCA, with only three leading modes retained. The first three modes of SWA, SSHA, and SSTA of LPCA explained 86%, 71%, and 94% of the total variance in the original data, respectively. Thus, the three associated time coefficient functions (TCFs) were used as the input data for NLPCA network. The NLPCA was made based on feed-forward neural network models. Compared with classical linear PCA, the first NLPCA mode could explain more variance than linear PCA for the above data. The nonlinearity of SWA and SSHA were stronger in most areas of the SCS. The first mode of the NLPCA on the SWA and SSHA accounted for 67.26% of the variance versus 54.7%, and 60.24% versus 50.43%, respectively for the first LPCA mode. Conversely, the nonlinear SSTA, localized in the northern SCS and southern continental shelf region, resulted in little improvement in the explanation of the variance for the first NLPCA.

南海上层海洋变异分析及海表温度统计学可预报性试验

气候变化和异常是当今地球科学研究的重大课题之一，与人类的生存、发展密切相关。南海作为我国最大的边缘海, 位于夏季风气流上游, 同时，作为热带太平洋的边缘海，具有显著的年际变异特征。近年来，随着卫星资料的积累和产品化使得我们有机会对南海的上层海洋要素进行全面的直接的观察，并进行南海气候异常变异及其可预报性的研究。 本文的研究内容就是利用近年来卫星资料产品，对南海主要海面要素，包括海面风场（SW）、表层温度场（SST）、海面高度场（SSH）的气候变化趋势以及南海表层温度变异的可预测性进行细致的探讨，并且利用较新的分析方法对南海上层海洋要素在近年来的非线性变异特点进行了分析。主要工作包括： 1. 采用南海卫星高度计及具有高精度模式输出结果通过联合经验正交函数分解（EOF）得到空间分辨率为1/3°×1/3°的南海绝对动力地形及地转流的季节变化（1－12个月）。从地转流场可以看到南海内部的表层流场主要有3种流系：西边界流、离岸流及南海多涡涡旋结构。 2. 通过南海海表大气和海洋要素（SW、风应力、SST、SSH）的气候变化趋势分析计算得到南海SST平均增暖0.5K/decade，海面高度升高6.7cm/decade，表层风场东分量和北分量的变化趋势分别为0.5m/s/decade、-0.04m/s/decade。其中南海SST增暖趋势和海面抬升速率远大于全球增暖和海面抬升速率。 3. 对南海SW、SSH和SST的异常场的EOF分析揭示南海SW、SSH及SST的年际尺度变化均表现出与ENSO变异现象一定的相关性：其中南海SW的第一模态特征表现为海盆尺度的反气旋，是西太平洋反气旋的最西南的一部分。对应的时间系数函数（TCF）滞后Nino3.4指数3个月，相关系数较高为0.90。南海SW的第二模态特征表现为均一化的西南风，TCF与印度洋偶极子（IOD）指数有一定相关性：TCF超前IOD指数4个月，相关系数达到0.58,表明南海SW第二模态似乎可以用来作印度洋偶极子现象的一个前兆。南海SSH的EOF第一模态特征为沿着南海东边界低水位，对应的TCF滞后Nino3.4指数2个月时间，二者相关系数为0.94；南海SST的EOF第一模态特征表现为整个海盆的增暖，对应的TCF与滞后Nino3.4指数8个月，相关系数等于0.62。 4. 基于典型相关分析（CCA），利用南海SSTA滞后热带太平洋Nino指数及印度洋IOD指数的关系建立南海SSTA的统计预报模式。通过对南海SSTA后报试验（1993/1994-2004年10月）与持续性预报值的预报效果进行比较分析，表明基于CCA统计方法对南海SSTA后期预报在预报时效超过3个月以上时具有更好的稳定性，提前1～12个月的后期预报水平平均值为0.60左右，误差均方根大约0.2个标准差。综合热带太平洋Nino指数为预报因子作南海SSTA统计预报的平均水平为0.55左右，亦具有较好的稳定性。 5. 基于前馈型神经网络，对南海近年的表层要素场（SW、SSH、SST）作非线性EOF分析。其中非线性EOF第一模态方差贡献与线性EOF相比均相应提高：海面风场、海面高度场的非线性作用较强，非线性EOF第一模态对变量场的方差贡献与线性EOF方法相比分别从54.75%提高到67.26%和50.43%提高至60.24%，非线性曲率强的空间范围占据绝大部分南海海域；相比较而言，南海SSTA场的非线性EOF第一模态的方差贡献提高不明显,非线性特征明显的区域仅在南海北部和南部靠近大陆的海区。对南海SSTA场1982-2003年时间长度的数据进行非线性与线性EOF分析比较，发现南海SSTA在近20年的非线性EOF分析中得到的非线性特征更不明显，表明与前10年相比，南海近10年的南海SSTA场的非线性成分有所增强。

大气季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响研究

利用ERA40逐日再分析资料、NCEP/NCAR2逐日再分析资料、中国740个测站日降水资料、上海台风研究所提供的西太平洋热带气旋资料、Kaplan等重建的月平均SSTA资料、NOAA逐日长波辐射（OLR）等资料，应用离散功率谱分析、带通滤波、EOF分析等统计方法，研究了东亚夏季风(EASM）的移动特征、东亚地区季节内振荡(ISO)的基本特征、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风活动的影响、季节内振荡对东亚夏季风异常活动的影响机理。主要结论如下： （1）综合动力和热力因素定义了可动态描述东亚夏季风移动和强度的指数，并利用该指数研究了东亚夏季风的爆发和移动的季节内变化及其年际和年代际变化特征。研究发现，气候平均东亚夏季风前沿分别在28候、33候、36候、38候、40候、44候出现了明显的跳跃。东亚夏季风活动具有显著的年际变率，主要由于季风前沿在某些区域异常停滞和突然跨越北跳或南撤引起，造成中国东部旱涝灾害频繁发生。东亚夏季风的活动具有明显的年代际变化，在1965年、1980年、1994年发生了突变，造成中国东部降水由“南旱北涝”向“南涝北旱”的转变。 （2）东亚季风区季节内变化具有10~25d和30~60d两个波段的季节内振荡周期，以30-60d为主。存在三个主要低频模态，第一模态主要表征了EASM在长江中下游和华北地区活动期间的低频形势；第二模态印度洋-菲律宾由低频气旋式环流控制，主要表现了ISO在EASM爆发期间的低频形势；第三模态主要出现在EASM在华南和淮河活动期间的低频形势。第一模态和第三模态是代表东亚夏季风活动异常的主要低频形势。 （3）热带和副热带地区ISO总是沿垂直切变风的垂直方向传播。因此，在南海-菲律宾东北风垂直切变和副热带西太平洋北风垂直切变下，大气热源激发菲律宾附近交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播，副热带西太平洋ISO以向西传播为主。中高纬度地区，乌拉尔山附近ISO以向东、向南移动或局地振荡为主；北太平洋中部ISO在某些情况下向南、向西传播。 （4）季风爆发期，伴随着热带东印度洋到菲律宾一系列低频气旋和低频反气旋， 冷空气向南输送，10~25天和30~60天季节内振荡低频气旋同时传入南海加快了南海夏季风的爆发。在气候态下，ISO活动表现的欧亚- 太平洋（EAP）以及太平洋-北美（PNA）低频波列分布特征(本文提出的EAP和PNA低频波列与传统意义上的二维定点相关得到的波列不同)。这种低频分布形式使得欧亚和太平洋中高纬度的槽、脊及太平洋副热带高压稳定、加强，东亚地区的低频波列则成为热带和中高纬度ISO相互作用影响东亚夏季风活动的纽带。不同的阶段表现不同的低频模态，30~60d低频模态的转变加快了EASM推进过程中跳跃性；30-60d低频模态的维持使得EASM前沿相对停滞。 （5）30-60d滤波场，菲律宾海域交替出现的低频气旋和低频反气旋不断向西北传播到南海-西太平洋一带。当南海-西太平洋地区低频气旋活跃时，季风槽加强、东伸，季风槽内热带气旋（TC）频数增加；当南海-西太平洋低频反气旋活跃时，季风槽减弱、西退，TC处于间歇期，生成位置不集中。 （6）在El Nino态下，大气季节内振荡偏弱，北传特征不明显，但ISO由中高纬度北太平洋中部向南和副热带西太平洋向西的传播特征显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第三模态为主，EASM集中停滞在华南和淮河流域，常伴随着持续性区域暴雨的出现，易造成华南和江淮流域洪涝灾害，长江和华北持续干旱。在La Nina态下，大气季节内振荡活跃，且具有明显的向北传播特征，PNA低频波列显著，东亚地区ISO活动以第一模态单峰为主；EASM主要停滞在长江中下游和华北地区，这些地区出现异常持续强降水，华南和淮河流域多干旱；在El Nino态向La Nina态转换期，ISO活动以第一模态双峰为主，长江中下游常常出现二度梅。

热带印度洋低频Rossby波及其对上层热结构的影响

Rossby波是地球物理流体动力学中非常重要的一种波动，海洋斜压长Rossby波在海洋动力过程中起着相当重要的作用。它维持并影响强西边界流，是海盆内能量传播的主要机制，它所携带的变异信号从大洋的东边界传播到内部，对海气耦合系统起到很重要的作用。热带印度洋是季风爆发的源地，对季风的年际变化具有重要影响。研究热带印度洋对理解季风变率和提高季风预测水平有重要的科学和应用价值。 本文利用TOPEX/Poseidon等高度计资料、美国国家海洋数据中心（NODC）的世界海洋图集（WOA05）长期气候态水文资料、美国Scripps海洋研究所的上层海温资料、中国Argo资料中心提供的Argo资料、美国国家环境预测中心（NCEP）的海表面温度、FSU（Florida State University）月平均风场和海气界面热通量等观测数据，全面分析了热带印度洋低频Rossby波的基本特征，并深入研究了低频Rossby波的生成机制及其对上层海洋热结构的影响。 采用相关分析等统计方法，结合1.5层约化重力模式，研究了热带南印度洋低频Rossby波的生成机制。结果表明： （1）热带南印度洋低频Rossby波分为东边界扰动产生的Rossby波和南印度洋中部风强迫Rossby波；东边界激发的为自由Rossby波，沿12°S波速大约13 cm/s，向西最远传播到80°E左右，之后被局地变量调整；强迫Rossby波在西传的过程中不断加强，波速较快，沿12°S能超过20 cm/s； （2）东边界扰动由印度尼西亚贯通流（ITF）导致的地转调整过程引起；内区风强迫Rossby波生成和加强的关键区为（70°E–95°E，15°S–5°S）；显著的西传Rossby波同太平洋上的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）事件紧密相连，ENSO通过大气的遥驱动机制激发热带南印度洋低频Rossby波； （3）作为东边界低频变量扰动的一个重要因子，ITF的变化与ENSO事件密切相关，总的来讲，El Niño年ITF偏弱，La Niña年ITF偏强，这与前人的研究结果一致；但它在ENSO的不同位相时期，存在一定差异，并具有夏季锁相特征：El Niño事件发生年的春季到秋季，ITF偏强，夏季最强；从El Niño盛期（冬季）到次年秋季，ITF持续偏弱，夏季最弱。上述夏季锁相特征与夏季风的强弱变化相对应。La Niña期间情况相反。 西南印度洋（SWIO）（50°E–75°E，15°S–5°S）以及苏门答腊-爪哇沿岸地区是海表面高度异常（SSHA）和海表面温度异常（SSTA）相关显著的区域，表明内部海洋动力过程在次表层和表层变量的相互关系中起重要作用。本文以2006–2008年期间三个连续的同El Niño或者La Niña同时发生的正印度洋偶极子（IOD）事件为背景，基于Argo观测资料研究了表层和次表层IOD的演变以及二者的区别和联系，并首次采用垂直模态分解方法探讨了Rossby波对上层海洋热力结构影响的动力学特征，得到如下主要结论： （1）在热带印度洋，海洋动力过程一般主要由第一和第二低阶垂直斜压模态控制，而第一斜压模态处于主导地位——在SWIO海区，第一斜压模态运动的方差解释率为第二模态的2–3倍，在赤道和东南印度洋也达到2倍左右；另外，赤道印度洋地区高阶斜压模态运动对该地区的海洋动力过程也具有一定的贡献； （2）低频斜压Rossby波能影响海洋的垂直层结，尤其是强暖Rossby波使同第二斜压模态运动紧密相连的海洋上层层结减弱，加强第二斜压模态的贡献量，导致上层各等压线向下垂直位移增大，最终通过垂直混合过程调整上层海洋的热力结构；而低频斜压冷Rossby波会加强上层垂直层结，抑制该层内变量变化，因此第二斜压模态的贡献依然很小； （3）表层IOD和次表层IOD分布形态不同：表层东部冷异常主要集中在东南印度洋Sumatra-Java沿岸，次表层冷异常基本关于赤道对称；表层西部暖异常基本关于赤道对称，而在次表层赤道以南海温扰动强度远远大于赤道以北； （4）正IOD事件中，东南印度洋冷SSTA首先出现于Java沿岸，沿岸东南风引起的潜热释放增加以及沿岸上升流是该初始冷异常建立的主要机制，与之相关的SSTA东西梯度加强大气环流变化，并进一步强迫随后的海洋运动；1–2个月后，SST冷异常中心北跳到Sumatra沿岸并向西扩展，同时不断增强，其中Sumatra沿岸上升流、来自赤道印度洋的冷Kelvin波及其反射的西传冷Rossby波是这一演变过程的动力机制，而沿岸上升流起决定作用。