49 resultados para Generalized Pareto Distribution

em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal


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Facing the problems that Dagang region of Huanghua Depression has high exploration degree and its remaining resource potential and structure are not clear, the theory of Petroleum Accumulation System (PAS) is applied to divide and evaluate the oil/gas systems quantitatively. Then, the petroleum accumulation systems are taken as units to forecast and analyse the oil/gas resources and their structure using statistical methods of sampling analysis of discovery process model and generalized pareto distribution model. The exploration benefit of the unit is estimated using exploration simulation methods. On the basis of the above study, the resource potential of Huanghua Depression is discussed.Huanghua Depression can be diveded into four petroleum accumulation systems, i.e. North PAS5 Middle Qibei PAS, Middle Qinan PAS and South PAS. Each PAS can be diveded futher into several sub- PASs. Using the basic princple of Analytical Hierarchy Process, the method of quantitative evaluation of PAS is established. Then the elements and maturity of PAS are evaluated quantitatively.Taking migration and accumulation units and sub-PASs as prediction units, sampling analysis of discovery process model and generalized pareto distribution model are applied comparatively to forecast the resource structure of eight migration and accumulation units in six PASs of medium-high exploration degree. The results of these two methods are contrasted and analyzed. An examination of X2 data of these two models from exploration samples shows that generalized pareto distribution model is more effective than sampling analysis of discovery process model in Huanghua Depression. It is concluded that minimum and maximum size of reservoir and discovery sequence of reservoirs are the sensitive parameters of these two methods.Aiming at the difficult problem of forecast in low exploration degree, by analysis of relativity between resource parameters and their possible influential geological factors, forecast models for resource parameters were established by liner regressing. Then the resource structure is forecasted in PASs of low exploration degree.Based on the forecast results, beginning with the analysis of exploration history and benefit variation, the exploration benefit variation of the above PASs is fitted effectively using exploration simulation method. The single well exploration benefit of remaining oil resource is also forecasted reasonably.The results of resource forecast show that the total oil resources ofHuanghua Depression amount to 2.28 b illion ton. By the end o f 2 003, the accumulative total proved oil reserve is 0.90 billion ton and the remaining oil resources is 1.38 billion ton. The remaining oil resource is concentrated in Kongdian-Dengmingshi, Banqiao-Beidagang, Qidong-Yangerzhuang and Baidong-Qizhong sub-PASs.

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A three-phase confocal elliptical cylinder model is proposed for fiber-reinforced composites, in terms of which a generalized self-consistent method is developed for fiber-reinforced composites accounting for variations in fiber section shapes and randomness in fiber section orientation. The reasonableness of the fiber distribution function in the present model is shown. The dilute, self-consistent, differential and Mori-Tanaka methods are also extended to consider randomness in fiber section orientation in a statistical sense. A full comparison is made between various micromechanics methods and with the Hashin and Shtrikman's bounds. The present method provides convergent and reasonable results for a full range of variations in fiber section shapes (from circular fibers to ribbons), for a complete spectrum of the fiber volume fraction (from 0 to 1, and the latter limit shows the correct asymptotic behavior in the fully packed case) and for extreme types of the inclusion phases (from voids to rigid inclusions). A very different dependence of the five effective moduli on fiber section shapes is theoretically predicted, and it provides a reasonable explanation on the poor correlation between previous theory and experiment in the case of longitudinal shear modulus.

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The material response and failure mechanism of unidirectional metal matrix composite under impulsive shear loading are investigated in this paper. Both experimental and analytical studies were performed. The shear strength of unidirectional C-f/A356.0 composite and A356.0 aluminum alloy at high strain rate were measured with a modified split Hopkinson torsional bar technique. The results indicated that the carbon fibers did not improve the shear strength of aluminum matrix if the fiber orientation aligned with the shear loading axis. The microscopic inspection of the fractured surface showed a multi-scale zigzag feature which implied a complicated shear failure mechanism in the composite. In addition to testing, the micromechanical stress field in the composite was analyzed by the generalized Eshelby equivalent method (GEEM). The influence of cracking in matrix on the micromechanical stress field was investigated as well. The results showed that the stress distribution in the composite is quite nonhomogeneous and very high shear stress concentrations are found in some regions in the matrix. The high shear stress concentration in the matrix induces tensile cracking at 45 degrees to the shear direction. This in turn aggravates the stress concentration at the fiber/matrix interface and finally leads to a catastrophic failure in the composite. From the correlation between the analysis and experimental results, the shear failure mechanism of unidirectional C-f/A356.0 composite can be elucidated qualitatively.

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To accomplish laser-induced thermal loading simulation tests for pistons,the Gaussian beam was modulated into multi-circular beam with specific intensity distribution.A reverse method was proposed to design the intensity distribution for the laser-induced thermal loading based on finite element(FE) analysis.Firstly,the FE model is improved by alternating parameters of boundary conditions and thermal-physical properties of piston material in a reasonable range,therefore it can simulate the experimental resul...

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A new collision model, called the generalized soft-sphere (GSS) model, is introduced. It has the same total cross section as the generalized hard-sphere model [Phys. Fluids A 5, 738 (1993)], whereas the deflection angle is calculated by the soft-sphere scattering model [Phys. Fluids A 3, 2459 (1991)]. In virtue of a two-term formula given to fit the numerical solutions of the collision integrals for the Lennard-Jones (6-12) potential and for the Stockmayer potential, the parameters involved in the GSS model are determined explicitly that may fully reproduce the transport coefficients under these potentials. Coefficients of viscosity, self-diffusion and diffusion for both polar and nonpolar molecules given by the GSS model and experiment are in excellent agreement over a wide range of temperature from low to high.

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A quasi-steady state growth and dissolution in a 2-D rectangular enclosure is numerically investigated. This paper is an extension to indicate the effects of the orientation of gravity on the concentration field in crystallization from solution under microgravity, especially on the lateral non-uniformity of concentration distribution at the growth surface. The thermal and solute convection are included in this model.

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The physical vapor transport (PVT) method is being widely used to grow large-size single SiC crystals. The growth process is associated with heat and mass transport in the growth chamber, chemical reactions among multiple species as well as phase change at the crystal/gas interface. The current paper aims at studying and verifying the transport mechanism and growth kinetics model by demonstrating the flow field and species concentration distribution in the growth system. We have developed a coupled model, which takes into account the mass transport and growth kinetics. Numerical simulation is carried out by employing an in-house developed software based on finite volume method. The results calculated are in good agreement with the experimental observation.

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The Boltzmann equation of the sand particle velocity distribution function in wind-blown sand two-phase flow is established based on the motion equation of single particle in air. And then, the generalized balance law of particle property in single phase granular flow is extended to gas-particle two-phase flow. The velocity distribution function of particle phase is expanded into an infinite series by means of Grad's method and the Gauss distribution is used to replace Maxwell distribution. In the case of truncation at the third-order terms, a closed third-order moment dynamical equation system is constructed. The theory is further simplified according to the measurement results obtained by stroboscopic photography in wind tunnel tests.

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The linear diffusion-reaction theory with finite interface kinetics is employed to describe the dissolution and the growth processes. The results show that it is imperative to consider the effect of the moving interfaces on the concentration distribution at the growth interface for some cases. For small aspect ratio and small gravity magnitude, the dissolution and the growth interfaces must be treated as the moving boundaries within an angle range of 0 degrees < gamma < 50 degrees in this work. For large aspect ratio or large gravity magnitude, the effect of the moving interfaces on the concentration distribution at the growth interface can be neglected except for gamma < - 50 degrees.

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Generalized planar fault energy (GPFE) curves have been used to predict partial-dislocation-mediated processes in nanocrystalline materials, but their validity has not been evaluated experimentally. We report experimental observations of a large quantity of both stacking faults and twins in nc Ni deformed at relatively low stresses in a tensile test. The experimental findings indicate that the GPFE curves can reasonably explain the formation of stacking faults, but they alone were not able to adequately predict the propensity of deformation twinning.

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This paper provides a numerical approach on achieving the limit equilibrium method for 3D slope stability analysis proposed in the theoretical part of the previous paper. Some programming techniques are presented to ensure the maneuverability of the method. Three examples are introduced to illustrate the use of this method. The results are given in detail such as the local factor of safety and local potential sliding direction for a slope. As the method is an extension of 2D Janbu's generalized procedure of slices (GPS), the results obtained by GPS for the longitudinal sections of a slope are also given for comparison with the 3D results. A practical landslide in Yunyang, the Three Gorges, of China, is also analyzed by the present method. Moreover, the proposed method has the advantages and disadvantages of GPS. The problem frequently encountered in calculation process is still about the convergency, especially in analyzing the stability of a cutting corner. Some advice on discretization is given to ensure convergence when the present method is used. However, the problem about convergency still needs to be further explored based on the rigorous theoretical background.

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The water content distribution in the surface layer of Maoping slope has been studied by testing the water content at 31 control sites. The water content profiles at these sites have also been determined. The water content distributions at different segments have been obtained by using the Kriging method of geostatistics. By comparing the water content distributions with the landform of the slope, it was shown that the water content is closely dependent on the landform of the slope. The water content distribution in the surface layer provided a fundamental basis for landslide predication and treatment.

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The thermodynamical model of intermittency in fully developed turbulence due to Castaing (B. Castaing, J. Phys. II France 6 (1996) 105) is investigated and compared with the log-Poisson model (Z-S, She, E. Leveque, Phys. Rev. Lett. 72 (1994) 336). It is shown that the thermodynamical model obeys general scaling laws and corresponds to the degenerate class of scale-invariant statistics. We also find that its structure function shapes have physical behaviors similar to the log-Poisson's one. The only difference between them lies in the convergence of the log-Poisson's structure functions and divergence of the thermodynamical one. As far as the comparison with experiments on intermittency is concerned, they are indifferent.

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We have recently developed a generalized JKR model for non-slipping adhesive contact between an elastic cylinder and a stretched substrate where both tangential and normal tractions are transmitted across the contact interface. Here we extend this model to a generalized Maugis-Dugdale model by adopting a Dugdale-type adhesive interaction law to eliminate the stress singularity near the edge of the contact zone. The non-slipping Maugis-Dugdale model is expected to have a broader range of validity in comparison with the non-slipping JKR model. The solution shares a number of common features with experimentally observed behaviors of cell reorientation on a cyclically stretched substrate.