全球变化不绿洲的演化趋势研究-以塔里木盆地北部渭干河绿洲为例

本文以全球变化对绿洲水文循环影响为主线，分析了地处干旱区的绿洲在全球变化下的演变趋势。以塔里木盆地北部渭干河绿洲为例，探讨了其水量平衡、非灌溉土壤积盐特性、隐域性盐化草甸植被NPP，以及绿洲土地利用／覆被变化对全球变化的响应。从不同时间尺度上分析了全球变化的两大驱动因子，气候变化和人类活动对绿洲演化的影响。运用系统动力学模型模拟了未来30年绿洲土地覆被变化在上述两驱动因子的作用下的动态演变过程。其主要结论如下： 1、从生态学的角度，绿洲可定义为：存在于干旱、半干旱区的依赖于水源而生存的隐域性绿色景观．地质时期，绿洲的演化由气候等自然因子起决定作用;人类历史时期，在气候等自然因素的大背景下，人类活动对绿洲演变的作用越来越大;近百年来，绿洲的演变则主要受人为活动干扰。 2、在不改变绿洲现有土地利用格局和水资源利用率的情况下，当年平均气温升高2.5℃，无论降水增加200%或不增加，绿洲的水资源量都将出现负平衡，全球变化将使绿洲面临更为严重的水资源短缺。 3、绿洲自然土壤0-5 0cm土层积盐速率对全球变化的响应程度依地下水埋深的大小而有所差异。地下水埋深较小，积盐速率随温度的升高增加较明显;地下水埋深较大时，积盐速率变化不明显。当地下水埋深>2m，地表积盐速率不再随气候变化而变化．地下水埋深h=2m为渭干河绿洲非灌溉土壤地表积盐速率对全球变化响应的临界深度。 4、根据绿洲地下水埋深与植被NPP的相关关系，推导出了估算盐化草甸植被NPP的模型： NPP=-O. 991+0. 0005Eo (h-0. 25h^2+0. 021h^3) +5. 276EXP (-0. 651h) 并分别估算了当前及全球变化下的NPP值。盐化草甸植被NPP随地下水埋深的增加呈指数下降。全球变化下，地下水埋深较大时，NPP的增加较明显;地下水埋深较小时，NPP的增加不明显。 5、灵敏度分析表明：NPP对地下水埋深h的变化比对地下水矿化度变化为更敏感。h=3. 3m为渭干河绿洲盐化草甸植被的胁迫深度。 6、系统动力学模型模拟表明，渭干河绿洲耕地面积的增减受水资源利用率和人口数量变化的制约。全球变化下，由于水文状况的改变，未来30年将导致绿洲耕地面积增幅下降4. 5-5.1%。绿洲水文状况和人口数量变化是决定土地利用格局变化的关键驱动因素。 7、绿洲灌溉土地的优化模式为，耕地：林地：改良草地=70: 23:7;种植业（耕地）内部的比例为，粮食作物：经济作物：人工草地=46: 31: 23。

Simultaneous determination of microcystin-LR and its glutathione conjugate in fish tissues by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry

A sensitive and selective liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method was developed and validated for the simultaneous quantitative determination of microcystin-LR (MC-LR) and its glutathione conjugate (MC-LR-GSH) in fish tissues. The analytes were extracted from fish liver and kidney using 0.01 M EDTA-Na-2-5% acetic acid, followed by a solid-phase extraction (SPE) on Oasis HLB and silica cartridges. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with electrospray ionization mass spectrometry, operating in selected reaction monitoring (SRM) mode, was used to quantify MC-LR and its glutathione conjugate in fish liver and kidney. Recoveries of analytes were assessed at three concentrations (0.2, 1.0, and 5 mu g g(-1) dry weight [DW]) and ranged from 91 to 103% for MC-LR, and from 65.0 to 75.7% for MC-LR-GSH. The assay was linear within the range from 0.02 to 5.0 mu g g(-1) DW, with a limit of quantification (LOQ) of 0.02 mu g g(-1) DW. The limit of detection (LOD) of the method was 0.007 mu g g(-1) DW in both fish liver and kidney. The overall precision was determined on three different days. The values for within- and between-day precision in liver and kidney were within 15%. This method was applied to the identification and quantification of MC-LR and its glutathione conjugate in liver and kidney of fish with acute exposure of MC-LR. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonylphenol, bisphenol-A and DDTs in Lake Donghu, China

A preliminary survey was carried out in April 2003 to estimate the levels of nonylphenol (NP), bisphenol-A (BPA) and residual DDTs in Lake Donghu. After then, the sediments of some areas of the lake were moved out for clearing the lake by the local government. Therefore, the variance of NP and BPA after the clearance of sediment in the surface water was determined from December 2003 to May 2004. Sediments, surface water and fish were collected from four sub-lake areas and the analytes were qualified by GC/MS in SIM mode after concentration onto an Oasis solid phase extraction cartridge. NP and BPA values ranged between 5.46-119.10 and 0.9913.42 mg/kg dw, respectively, in sediments, 75.2-179.6 and 15.1-62.5 mu g/L in surface water. Meanwhile, the bioaccumulation factors (BCFs) of NP and BPA were calculated in fish livers. Plasma vitellogenin (VTG), a sensitive biomarker showing oestrogenicity was detected in the captured male Wuchang bream (Megalobrama amblycephala Yih) and common carp (Cyprinus carpio). After sediment clearance, the concentrations of NP and BPA decreased to 0.65-25.04 and 0.04-21.32 mu g/L. The results indicate the presence of high-dose xenoestrogenic NP and BPA, probably major contributors which associate with VTG induction in Lake Donghu male fish.

支持WSRP 2.0规范的联邦门户的设计与实现

门户（Portal）是基于组件的web应用，它可以集成Internet环境下各种现有应用系统、数据资源和网络信息资源，并为用户形成个性化的访问页面，实现信息的集成和发布。Portlet是门户中的可重用组件，能够提供对web内容、应用程序和其他资源的访问。JSR168规范（Portlet 1.0）和JSR286规范（Portlet 2.0）提供了Portlet的标准。 随着门户的广泛使用，门户已经成为获取信息，巩固和整合IT基础设施的平台。于是来自于同一公司的、自主的、分散的多个部门都部署了自己的门户，但这些门户之间却无法进行内容共享，即Portlet在门户之间的集成。于是出现了联邦门户（Federated Portals），它是由多个分散的门户构成的网络，这些门户基于共同的标准协同工作。联邦门户实现了在异构门户之间共享远程内容，这些远程内容来自于名为生产者的门户，被收集、组合和运行在名为消费者的门户中。 联邦门户的基本特征是基于规范实现跨门户的系统联合。因此联邦门户的关键在于对门户间互操作标准的制定。这个标准就是OASIS推出的WSRP（Web Services for Remote Portlets）规范。WSRP规范提供了门户间互操作标准，成为联邦门户的基础技术。它有1.0和2.0两个版本，分别产生于2003年和2008年。 为了提高联邦门户应用的构建效率，增强异构门户互操作性的能力，完善联邦门户的用户友好性，需要为OncePortal提供支持WSRP 2.0规范的联邦门户。 本文从WSRP 2.0规范和联邦门户的需求出发，设计并实现了支持WSRP 2.0规范的联邦门户。首先根据WSRP 2.0规范对远程Portlet的语法模型、交互模型和生命周期模型三个方面进行特征分析；其次总结了联邦门户的核心功能、系统边界，并给出了联邦门户的设计；然后从Portlet URL的生成与改写、Portlet统一协作框架、远程Portlet资源服务、WSRP容器和代理容器以及Portlet缓存共5个方面介绍了联邦门户的关键技术；最后基于以上分析和设计，实现了联邦门户扩展应用，并将其应用在中科院软件所自主研发的门户产品OncePortal中。

额济纳天然绿洲景观格局、动态、演化机制及其健康评价

额济纳天然绿洲位于我国西北干旱内流区黑河流域下游，近年来，随着黑河中、上游地区下泄地表径流量的减少，额济纳天然绿洲面临的生态环境问题日益突出。本文以额济纳天然绿洲景观为研究对象，以景观生态学及生态系统健康学原理为基础，综合运用35技术，基于研究区1987年、1994年和2001年的景观格局、动态变化特征及其演化机制的研究，发展并构建了额济纳天然绿洲景观健康评价指标体系及评价标准，对研究区景观健康问题进行了深入探讨与评价，从而为保护地区景观健康、维持区域生态安全提供科学依据。主要研究结果：①研究区景观属于典型的"基质一廊道一斑块"景观结构特征，景观破碎化程度较高，具有较低的景观多样性和较为粗糙的景观质地特征。②近巧年来研究区水域面积急剧萎缩、绿洲面积明显缩减、荒漠化程度较为严重；景观斑块形状复杂性及景观异质性程度下降，景观质地变得越发粗糙，景观多样性及景观稳定性降低。③上游入境水量的锐减是研究区景观发生退化的根本原因，绿洲人类活动强度的增加、绿洲关键区域的超载和过牧及蒸发度的升高、湿润系数的下降均加剧了研究区景观退化的程度。④基于35项景观变化、生物物理、生态环境及社会经济指标构建了研究区景观健康评价指标体系，运用模糊综合评判方法得出研究区景观健康指数LHI为0.1972，位于健康评价级别中"濒危的"级别偏下的位置。说明近十多年来研究区的景观健康状况较早时期相比趋于恶化，其发展态势表现出严重的不可持续性。

石羊河下游民勤绿洲景观变化与生态安全研究

民勤绿洲位于我国西北干旱区内陆河石羊河流域的下游。近些年来，随着该流域中、上游地区大量截留水资源，使进入民勤绿洲的地表水资源量逐年减少，导致绿洲生态环境不断恶化，生态安全面临着严重危机。本论文应用景观生态学原理与方法，综合运用3S技术，通过多时相遥感数据的对比分析，系统研究了民勤绿洲景观格局动态演变过程、形成原因及其与重要生态过程的相互作用，并在此基础上对绿洲生态安全的时空变化进行了综合评价。主要研究成果：1．景观格局影响生态过程，研究景观格局可以揭示生态过程变化的内在原因。因此，景观空间格局研究一直以来是景观生态学研究的核心与热点之一。应用景观空间格局分析软件FRAGSTATS对绿洲近14年的景观格局及其变化过程的定量研究表明，开荒与弃耕始终存在于景观的演变过程中，导致景观中林地、荒草地、耕地与沙地斑块类型的相互转化。开荒作用主要发生在1987-1998年间并导致林地与荒草地斑块转化成耕地斑块，绿洲耕地面积在此时期逐渐增加；弃耕作用主要发生在1998年至2001年间并导致耕地斑块逐渐转化成沙地斑块或荒草地斑块，耕地面积在此时期逐渐减少014年来，绿洲沙漠化过程逐年发展，主要表现为林地与荒草地斑块与耕地斑块逐渐转变成沙地斑块，导致沙地斑块面积（CA）逐渐增加，而斑块数量（NP）逐渐减少，使得沙地平均斑块大小（MPS）逐渐增大，沙地斑块呈现集中连片式的分布趋势。由于林草地斑块的逐渐减少以及耕地与沙地斑块的增加导致绿洲的多样性（SHOI）、均匀性（SHEI）与平行与并列指数（IJI）逐渐降低，而连通性（CONGTAG）逐渐增强，绿洲景观格局越来越强烈地受到沙地与耕地斑块类型的控制。绿洲景观的连通性上升的幅度（CONTAG）是坝区＞泉山区＞湖区。景观的多样性（SHDI）与均匀性（SHEI）下降的幅度是坝区＞泉山区＞湖区。坝区景观的衰退过程（沙地面积的增幅）与人类对该灌区的开发强度（耕地面积的增幅）与都强于泉山区与湖区。2．景观变化的主要驱动因素包括自然、社会与经济因素。绿洲景观格局的演变是以上因素综合作用的结果。干早区绿洲的形成机制决定了其发展与演变强烈地受到水资源的质与量的支配，水资源条件的变化是驱动该绿洲景观演变的主导因素。由于中、上游地区为满足经济发展的需要，大量截留地表水资源使进入下游民勤绿洲的地表水资源从50年代的年平均5.42亿m3锐减到2001年的0.73亿m3，致使绿洲地下水的补给量减少，而耕地面积的扩大导致地下水的超采量增加，引发土地干旱化与盐碱化，大量沙生植被枯萎、死亡，弃耕地增加。民勤绿洲用水模式进步缓慢、管理效率低下、人口的快速增长、农业技术推广速度缓慢以及土地使用制度等因素共同作用形成了推动景观变化的复杂人文机制。水资源的减少与人文机制共同作用驱动着绿洲景观的演变过程。3．指出绿洲景观的生态安全应包括景观的格局安全与过程安全两个方面。景观格局与生态过程密不可分，绿洲景观格局影响生态过程，生态过程“塑造”景观格局。利用ARCv正W的空间分析功能，从景观格局的空间邻接特征角度研究景观斑块类型受沙漠化威胁与盐碱化威胁的程度，并在此基础上分析生态安全。结果表明坝区耕地、林地、荒草地受沙漠化威胁程度高于其它两个灌区，湖区的耕地、林地、草地受盐碱化威胁的程度高于其它两个灌区。水对干旱区绿洲的重要性决定了水生态过程研究是绿洲生态安全研究的重要方面。利用ARCMAP的空间插值的地统计分析功能对绿洲的地下水埋深与地下水矿化度进行空间插值，得到地下水埋深与地下水矿化度的时空分布，结果表明：各时期绿洲地下水埋深为中心深，边缘浅，表明地下水降落漏斗的存在与不断加深。14年来地下水位的平均下降速率，坝区最快，泉山区次之，湖区最慢，三灌区分别为0.75m、0.7m与0.60m。绿洲北部地下水矿化度显著升高，14年来泉山区地下水矿化度上升为1.36倍，湖区南部地下水矿化度上升1.47倍，湖区北部地下水矿化度上升为1.43倍，地下水矿化度平均值达到5.6g/L，成为绿洲地下水矿化度最高地带，也是作物产量锐减的地带，因此地下水矿化度的上升导致作物安全生长潜在格局发生变化，作物安全生长区面积缩小，而中度以上不安全生长区面积扩大，造成了作物的减产与农业产业结构调整的空间缩小，难度加大。4．绿洲为水、土、植被、气候、社会经济与人类活动等众多方面所组成的、彼此相互联系的复杂的社会一经济一生态复合系统。因此绿洲的生态安全的综合评价涉及吸素众多，必须采用定量与定性相结合的方法进行科学地评价。采用目前较为成熟的环境综合评价方法一层次分析法AHP，并构建绿洲景观生态安全评价指标体系，对绿洲景观生态安全进行综合评价，结果表明：绿洲及各灌区生态安全水平逐年降低，目前生态安全值与1987年的相比，绿洲为68％，坝区73.7％，泉山区为63.6％，湖区为65.2％。三灌区中坝区的生态安全水平在各时期都是最高的，其次为泉山区，湖区最低。14年间生态安全下降幅度较大的为泉山区与湖区，坝区生态安全水平下降幅度较小。5．将绿洲生态环境恶化所导致的经济损失值量化，运用市场价值法与机会成本法对近14年来由于绿洲的环境恶化导致对社会经济发展所产生的不良后果从植被死亡、土地盐渍化导致作物减产、弃耕地出现导致的土地生产力的丧失与地下水位下降所导致的机井报废与提水成本增加四个方面进行经济效益损失估算，结果为经济损失值是湖区＞坝区＞泉山区，分别达到53786万元、44276.22万元、39247.36万元。坝区以林木死亡所造成的经济损失最大，湖区与泉山区以土地盐渍化所造成的经济损失最大。经济损失值占同期当地国民生产总值的百分比是湖区＞泉山区＞坝区，分别达到76.39％、55.04％、28.48％。可见绿洲的社会经济发展是以牺牲生态环境，降低生态安全水平为代价，这将严重制约绿洲今后的可持续发展。

A methodology of characterizing status and trend of land changes in oases: A case study of Sangong River watershed, Xinjiang, China

National Natural Science Foundation of China [40471134]; program of Lights of the West China by the Chinese Academy of Science

Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the "Grain for Green" policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of "Western Development", "Revitalization of Northeast", coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.

塔克拉玛干沙漠地球化学研究

The Taklamakan Desert, lying in the center Tarim Basin of sourthern Xinjiang, is the largest sand sea in China and well known in the world as its inclemency. For understanding the formation and evolution of the Taklamakan Desert, it is very important to identify the provenance of aeolian sediments in the extensive dune fields, but the opinions from earlier studies are quite different. In this study, we examined the major- and trace-element compositions, mineral compositions and grain-size distributions of some Quaternary aeolian and nonaeolian sediments collected from the Taklamakan Desert, together with the variation of chemical and mineralogical compositions of different grain-size fraction. At the same time, we also studied the chemistries of some natural water samples (river water and groundwater) with the items of TDS, pH, Alkalinity, conductivity and major cation and anion compositions. Our results of analysis show some significant opinions as follow: Most of the frequency-distribution curves of grain size of dune sand samples are simgle peak, but that of the river and lacustrine sediment are most double peak or multi-peak. The grain-size distribution of dunefield sand changed gradually from north to south with the major wind direction in large scale, but there are many differences in regional scale. The major, REE, trace element compositions and mineral compositions are very different among the coarse, fine fraction and bulk samples due to the influence of grain-size. Most of the fine fractions are geochemically homogenous, but the coarse fractions and bulk samples are heterogenous. All the surface and ground waters are limnetic or sub-salty, their chemical compositions are mainly controlled by rock-weathering and crystallization- evaporation processes, and mainly come from the evaporate, while the contributions of the carbonate and silicate are little, excluding the influence on oasis water by carbonate. The mineral compositions of selected samples are stable, mainly composed of the strongly resistant mineral types. The mineral maturity of them are more immature at whole compared with other sandy sediments in the world, and they have experienced less degree of chemical weathering and recycling, being lying in the early stage of continental weathering. Among these sediments, the river sediments are relatively primitive. The sources of these sediments are maybe mainly terrigenous, silicic and subaluminous/ metalunious rocks, such as the granodiorite and its metamorphic rock. The geochemical compositions of dunefield sand are similar with those of the river sediments and dune sands near the river way; There are not only the resemblances but also the differences on geochemistry and granularity between north and south dunesands; The sediments from same section have different age but same trace-element compositions; The sediments from the south edge of Tarim Basin are all somewhat geochemically similar with the palaeo-river-sediment on the south edge of studying area. The REE data support the idea that the south dunesands are a little older than the north dunesands, and the tectonic settings of source area are mainly active continental margin based on the major-element compositions, so they indicate that the sediment of Taklamakan Desert maybe come mainly from the rock-weathering production of north part of the Kunlun Mountains. Compared with the sands of other dune field in north of China, the sands of the Taklamakan Desert are distinct by REE composition, but similar with the Luochuan loess, center China, and the two sandy dusts of Beijing, eastern China.

塔里木盆地历史时期的自然环境演变

Exploit Tarim Basin Historical Physical Geographic Information System by linking historical documents and Geographic Information System, reconstruct the physical environmental evolution in Tarirn Basin during historical period (the last 2 Ka), special discuss riverhead of the Yellow River and Lop Nur. Based on analyzing Chinese historical documents (antiquity maps and texts), extract physical environmental information in Xiyu during historical period from Twenty-Five History and geographic books and records past dynasties, divide it into 4 period of time. Regarding digital topographical maps as base maps and looking on water bodies, vegetation and desert as central factors, quantify historical physical geographic data in Geographic Information System in terms of dynastic combination of Xianqin-Han, Jin-Wei-Nanbeichao, Tang-Wudai and Song-Yuan-Ming-Qing, execute physical environmental maps of Xiyu through the ages, in order to image the changes of water system, oasis and desert in Xiyu during the last 2 Ka. Compare cross orientation the relation of environmental factors all historical period of time from the influence of climate to oasis and desert, deem that climate condition decided ecological structure in direct and restrict the extent of desertification, especially climate corresponded the style of oasis and the spread of desert in the period of Jin-Wei-Nanbeichao and Tang-Wudai. Compare portrait direction the physical environmental characters in Xiyu during different period of time from 5 aspects of water bodies, oasis, desert, products and climate, deem that physical environment in Xiyu changed in all aspects during historical period. The origin of Lysenkoism about the Yellow River Undercurrent is agelong, whose ascending and descending at times due to investigating the riverhead of the Yellow River time after time during historical period and researching and disputing about the geographic location of Jishishan Mountain. It could consider the faultage in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau as the channels of undercurrent according to the research of modern geoscience field in the riverhead region.

新疆自然区划单元土地利用/覆盖分布图谱研究

Under the direction of Geo-informatic Tupu theory, based on comprehensive natural division in Xinjiang and 1:100000 land use and land cover vector data in 2000 from resource and environment database of CAS, the paper gave out some distribution Tupu of land resource types in different regions of Xinjiang. GIS tools such as ARCTOOLS and ARCV1EW were used to clip the unit of each natural division. Some useful conclusions were established. Then the lower reaches of Tarim River were selected as typical area to analyze the ecological environment evolvement from 2000 to 2004 since the beginning of ecological water delivering. The comprehensive space-time analysis provided a method to monitor the effect dynamically. The main contents of the thesis are listed as follows: (1) Similarities and differences between North Xinjiang and South Xinjiang, 6 second-classified regions and 37 third-classified regions. The conclusion of each region emphasized the percentage of area of main land types, characteristic description and distribution of cultivated land > woodlands grassland-, water area^ urban and rural land and unused land. (2) Thematic Tupu of each region. It concluded artificial oasis Tupu, the proportion between dense-grass% moderate-grass and sparse-grass, pattern of land resources and the land use degree. The artificial oasis mean cultivated land^ woodland^ urban & rural land and other construction land. The proportion of grassland disclosed the quality of all grassland and showed the development of them. Pattern of land resources and the land use degree gave out the detailed development direction and development degree of each region. (3) Ecological environment evolvement of the lower reaches of Tarim River. The effects of each ecological water delivering were compared.