Experimental Evidence of Critical Sensitivity in Catastrophe

The paper presents an experimental study on critical sensitivity in rocks. Critical sensitivity means that the response of a system to external controlling variable may become significantly sensitive as the system approaches its catastrophic rupture point. It is found that the sensitivities measured by responses on three scales (sample scale, locally macroscopic scales and mesoscopic scale) display increase prior to catastrophic transition point. These experimental results do support the concept that critical sensitivity might be a common precursory feature of catastrophe. Furthermore, our previous theoretical model is extended to explore the fluctuations in critical sensitivity in the rock tests.

The Newest Developments Of Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr)

The Load Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It is inspiring that its predictions using LURR have been improving. Since 2004 we have made a major breakthrough in intermediate-term earthquake forecasting of the strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using LURR and successfully predicted the Pakistan earthquake with magnitude M 7.6 on October 8, 2005. The causes for improving the prediction in terms of LURR have been discussed in the present paper.

Comparison Between Lurr And State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes In Southern California Since 1980

There are seven strong earthquakes with M >= 6.5 that occurred in southern California during the period from 1980 to 2005. In this paper, these earthquakes were studied by the LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) method and the State Vector method to detect if there are anomalies before them. The results show that LURR anomalies appeared before 6 earthquakes out of 7 and State Vector anomalies appeared before all 7 earthquakes. For the LURR method, the interval between maximum LURR value and the forthcoming earthquake is 1 to 19 months, and the dominant mean interval is about 10.7 months. For the State Vector method, the interval between the maximum modulus of increment State Vector and the forthcoming earthquake is from 3 to 27 months, but the dominant mean interval between the occurrence time of the maximum State Vector anomaly and the forthcoming earthquake is about 4.7 months. The results also show that the minimum valid space window scale for the LURR and the State Vector is a circle with a radius of 100 km and a square of 3 degrees 3 degrees, respectively. These results imply that the State Vector method is more effective for short-term earthquake prediction than the LURR method, however the LURR method is more effective for location prediction than the State Vector method.

Fast Computing For Lurr Of Earthquake Prediction

The LURR theory is a new approach for earthquake prediction, which achieves good results in earthquake prediction within the China mainland and regions in America, Japan and Australia. However, the expansion of the prediction region leads to the refinement of its longitude and latitude, and the increase of the time period. This requires increasingly more computations, and the volume of data reaches the order of GB, which will be very difficult for a single CPU. In this paper, a new method was introduced to solve this problem. Adopting the technology of domain decomposition and parallelizing using MPI, we developed a new parallel tempo-spatial scanning program.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of LURR and Its Implication for the Tendency of Earthquake Occurrence in Southern California

Based on the theory of LURR and its recent development, spatial and temporal variation of Y/Y-c (value of LURR/critical value of LURR) in the Southern California region during the period from 1980 through March, 2001 was studied. According to the previous study on the fault system and stress field in Southern California, we zoned the Southern California region into 11 parts in each of which the stress field is almost uniform. With the time window of one year, time moving step of three months, space window of a circle region with a radius of 100 km and space moving step of 0.25 degree in latitude and longitude direction, the evolution of Y/Y-c were snapshot. The scanning results show that obvious Y/Y-c anomalies occurred before 5/6 of strong earthquakes considered with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater. The critical regions of Y/Y-c are near the epicenters of the strong earthquakes and the Y/Y-c anomalies occur months to years prior to the earthquakes. The tendency of earthquake occurrence in the California region is briefly discussed on the basis of the examination of Y/Y-c.

Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Calibration of alkenone unsaturation index with growth temperature for a lacustrine species, Chrysotila lamellosa (Haptophyceae)

Although long chain alkenones (LCKs) occur widely in lacustrine sediments, their origin is not clear. Here, we report a lacustrine source, the non-calcifying species Chrysotila lamellosa Anand (Haptophyceae), collected and isolated from an inland saline water body, Lake Xiarinur (Inner Mongolia, China). Its alketione pattern is similar to those of coastal marine strains of C lamellosa,but the relationship between U-37(K') index and culture temperature for the lacustrine species is quite different from that of the coastal species. A significant feature of the alkenones in this strain of C lamellosa is a lack of C-38 methyl alkenones, which might be used to distinguish the species from the marine haptophyte species Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica. The higher C-38 tetraunsaturated compound abundance might be another important feature for distinguishing the C lamellosa alkenone producer from the coastal species Isochrysis galbana. This alkenone distribution pattern has been detected in many lakes, which suggests that C lamellosa or a closely related species might be a very common alkenone precursor in lacustrine systems. We examined U-37(K') and U-37(K) values for C lamellosa as a function of culture temperature in a batch culture experiment. The calibration for U-37(K') vs. culture temperature (T) was U-37(K') = 0.0011 x T-2 - 0.0157 x T + 0.1057(n = 14, r(2) = 0.99) from 10 degrees C to 22 degrees C or U-37(K') = 0.0257 x T - 0.2608(n = 9, r(2) = 0.97) from 14 degrees C to 22 degrees C. U-37(K) vs. culture temperature was U-37(K) = 0 0377 x T - 0.5992(n = 14, r(2) = 0.98) from 10 degrees C to 22 degrees C. Our experiments show that the alkenone unsaturation index (U-37(K')) is strongly controlled by culture temperature and can be used for palaeoclimate reconstruction. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gas-bearing fluid influx sub-system for gas hydrate geological system in Shenhu Area, Northern South China Sea

Based on the comprehensive interpretation and study of the Neogene fracture system and diapiric structure, it can be concluded that the diapiric structures, high-angle fractures and vertical fissure system are the main gas-bearing fluid influx sub-system for gas hydrate geological system in Shenhu Area, northern South China Sea. The Neogene fractures widely developed in the study area may be classed into two groups: NW (NNW)-trending and NE (NNE)-trending. The first group was active in the Late Miocene, while the second one was active since the Pliocene. The NE (NNE)-trending fractures were characterized by lower activity strength and larger scale, and cut through the sediment layers deposited since the Pliocene. Within the top sediment layers, the high-angle fracture and vertical fissure system was developed. The diapiric structures display various types such as a turtle-back-like arch, weak piercing, gas chimney, and fracture (or crack, fissure). On the seismic profile, some diapiric structures show the vertical chimney pathway whose top is narrow and the bottom is wide, where some ones extend horizontally into pocket or flower-shaped structures and formed the seismic reflection chaotic zones. Within the overlying sediment layers of the diapiric structure, the tree branch, flower-shaped high-angle fractures and vertical fissures were developed and became the pathway and migration system of the gas-bearing fluid influx. In the study area, the diapiric structures indicate a high temperature/over pressure system ever developed. Closely associated and abundant bright-spots show the methane-bearing fluid influx migrated vertically or horizontally through the diapiric structures, high-angle fractures and vertical fissures. In the place where the temperature and pressure conditions were favor for the formation of gas hydrate, the hydrate reservoir deposition sub-system was developed.

Methane hydrate growth velocity in seepage system of Qiongdongnan Basin, South China Sea

The occurrences of diapirs, gas-filled zones and gas plumes in seawater in Qiongdongnan Basin of South China Sea indicate that there may exist seepage system gas-hydrate reservoirs. Assuming there has a methane venting zone of 1500 m in diameter, and the methane flux is 1000 kmol/a, and the temperature of methane hydrate-bearing sediments ranges from 3 degrees C to 20 degrees C, then according to the hydrate film growth theory, by numerical simulation, this paper computes the temperatures and velocities in 0 mbsf, 100 mbsf, 200 mbsf, 425 mbsf over discrete length, and gives the change charts. The results show that the cementation velocity in sediments matrix of methane hydrate is about 0.2 nm/s, and the seepage system will evolve into diffusion system over probably 35000 years. Meanwhile, the methane hydrate growth velocity in leakage system is 20 similar to 40 times faster than in diffusion system.