Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

A generalized wave action conservative equation for the dissipative dynamical system in the nearshore region

To describe the various complex mechanisms of the dissipative dynamical system between waves, currents, and bottoms in the nearshore region that induce typically the wave motion on large-scale variation of ambient currents, a generalized wave action equation for the dissipative dynamical system in the nearshore region is developed by using the mean-flow equations based on the Navier-Stokes equations of viscous fluid, thus raising two new concepts: the vertical velocity wave action and the dissipative wave action, extending the classical concept, wave action, from the ideal averaged flow conservative system into the real averaged flow dissipative system (that is, the generalized conservative system). It will have more applications.

Synchronous chaos in the coupled system of two logistic maps

Synchronous chaos is investigated in the coupled system of two Logistic maps. Although the diffusive coupling admits all synchronized motions, the stabilities of their configurations are dependent on the transverse Lyapunov exponents while independent of the longitudinal Lyapunov exponents. It is shown that synchronous chaos is structurally stable with respect to the system parameters. The mean motion is the pseudo-orbit of an individual local map so that its dynamics can be described by the local map. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computation of stress intensity factors by the sub-region mixed finite element method of lines

Based on the sub-region generalized variational principle, a sub-region mixed version of the newly-developed semi-analytical 'finite element method of lines' (FEMOL) is proposed in this paper for accurate and efficient computation of stress intensity factors (SIFs) of two-dimensional notches/cracks. The circular regions surrounding notch/crack tips are taken as the complementary energy region in which a number of leading terms of singular solutions for stresses are used, with the sought SIFs being among the unknown coefficients. The rest of the arbitrary domain is taken as the potential energy region in which FEMOL is applied to obtain approximate displacements. A mixed system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and algebraic equations is derived via the sub-region generalized variational principle. A singularity removal technique that eliminates the stress parameters from the mixed equation system eventually yields a standard FEMOL ODE system, the solution of which is no longer singular and is simply and efficiently obtained using a standard general-purpose ODE solver. A number of numerical examples, including bi-material notches/cracks in anti-plane and plane elasticity, are given to show the generally excellent performance of the proposed method.