未来气候变化对黄土高原黑河流域水资源的影响

气候变化对黄土高原的水资源有重要影响,对其影响进行评估可以为区域发展提供重要的决策依据。基于分布式水文模型SWAT和4种全球环流模式的各3种排放情景,评估了2010～2039年黄土高塬沟壑区黑河流域水资源对气候变化的潜在响应。结果表明,黑河流域2010～2039年的年均降水变化-2.3%～7.8%,年均最高和最低温度分别升高0.7～2.2℃和1.2～2.8℃,年均径流量变化-19.8%～37.0%,1.2m剖面年均土壤水分含量变化-5.5%～17.2%,年均蒸散量普遍增长0.1%～5.9%;水文气象变量变化趋势复杂,但T检验表明年降水、径流、土壤水分和蒸散增长的概率较大。对于季节变化,降水可能在12～7月份和9月份增长,8月份和10～11月份减少;径流在4～7月份和9～10月份增加,11～3月份和8月份减少;土壤水分在各月都增长;蒸散11～6月份普遍增长,7～10月份减少的可能性较大。未来气候将发生显著变化并对水资源有重要影响,需采取必要的措施来减缓其不利影响。

Toxicological Research on Environmental Endocrine Disruptors

Most evidence in terms of endocrine dsiruptors (EDs) mainly originates from studies on reproductive organs. However, in veterbrates, the ability to attain reproductive and development success relays on the intact organization of a complex endocrine system. Disturbances in the regulation of the key hormones and receptors functioning along this system may cause detrimental effects on reproduction and development. Here we reviewed recent studies of EDs on endocrine system. EDs may act on key hormones and receptors along with the hypothalarnic-pituitary-gonald (HPG) axis and lead to reproductive failure. Thyroid disruption may be caused at different levels, for example, the synthesis, transport, binding and cellular uptake along with the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis. Knowledge of model of action EDs is largely via receptors-mediated pathway and alternatively may affect on steroid hormone synthesis. Aquatic hypoxia can influence fish reproduction and thus it is also an endocrine disruptor. Molecular techniques, such as toxicomics, transgenic fish will be employed as powerful tools for environmental EDs risk assessment, as well as in elucidating mechanisms of model action.