东亚土地覆盖对ENSO事件的响应特征

对1982—1993年气候年际变化的强信号———ENSO进行了确认及再分类。以美国地质调查局EROS中心提供的AVHRR8kmNDVI为数据源,应用地理信息系统技术,计算了1982—1993年每年夏季(5—9月)NDVI平均影像。在此基础上用数据断面分析法对ENSO年东亚地区土地覆盖的空间分布进行了分析,再用主成分分析法对同一时间序列NDVI平均影像进行了运算,发现其第7主成分影像所反映的土地覆盖分布与数据断面分析法所反映的结果是一致的。对此,进一步分析了第7主成分的特征向量与代表ENSO变化特征的南方涛动指数(SOI)之间的关系,进而,对ENSO驱动下的东亚地区土地覆盖年际变化的空间分布特征进行了总结。

Equatorial pacific SSTA-related decadal variations of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate

Based on analysis of NCEP reanalysis data and SST indices of the recent 50 years, decadal changes of the potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies were investigated. Autocorrelation of Nino3 SST anomalies (SSTA) and correlation between atmospheric anomalies fields and Nino3 SSTA exhibit obvious variation in different decades, which indicates that Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies has significant decadal changes. Time around 1977 is not only a shift point of climate on the interdecadal time scale but also a catastrophe point of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate. As a whole, ENSO and the PNA pattern in boreal winter are more predictable in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s, while the Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of the Indian monsoon and the East Asian Monsoon is lower in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s.

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model and ENSO prediction study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

Mixed-layer water oscillations in tropical Pacific for ENSO cycle

The main modes of interannal variabilities of thermocline and sea surface wind stress in the tropical Pacific and their interactions are investigated, which show the following results. (1) The thermocline anomalies in the tropical Pacific have a zonal dipole pattern with 160 W as its axis and a meridional seesaw pattern with 6-8 degrees N as its transverse axis. The meridional oscillation has a phase lag of about 90 to the zonal oscillation, both oscillations get together to form the El Nino/La Nina cycle, which behaves as a mixed layer water oscillates anticlockwise within the tropical Pacific basin between equator and 12 degrees N. (2) There are two main patterns of wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific, of which the first component caused by trade wind anomaly is characterized by the zonal wind stress anomalies and its corresponding divergences field in the equatorial Pacific, and the abnormal cross- equatorial flow wind stress and its corresponding divergence field, which has a sign opposite to that of the equatorial region, in the off-equator of the tropical North Pacific, and the second component represents the wind stress anomalies and corresponding divergences caused by the ITCZ anomaly. (3) The trade winds anomaly plays a decisive role in the strength and phase transition of the ENSO cycle, which results in the sea level tilting, provides an initial potential energy to the mixed layer water oscillation, and causes the opposite thermocline displacement between the west side and east side of the equator and also between the equator and 12 degrees N of the North Pacific basin, therefore determines the amplitude and route for ENSO cycle. The ITCZ anomaly has some effects on the phase transition. (4) The thermal anomaly of the tropical western Pacific causes the wind stress anomaly and extends eastward along the equator accompanied with the mixed layer water oscillation in the equatorial Pacific, which causes the trade winds anomaly and produces the anomalous wind stress and the corresponding divergence in favor to conduce the oscillation, which in turn intensifies the oscillation. The coupled system of ocean-atmosphere interactions and the inertia gravity of the mixed layer water oscillation provide together a phase-switching mechanism and interannual memory for the ENSO cycle. In conclusion, the ENSO cycle essentially is an inertial oscillation of the mixed layer water induced by both the trade winds anomaly and the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific basin between the equator and 12 degrees N. When the force produced by the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction is larger than or equal to the resistance caused by the mixed layer water oscillation, the oscillation will be stronger or maintain as it is, while when the force is less than the resistance, the oscillation will be weaker, even break.

热带太平洋次表层海温变化及其与ENSO循环的研究

随着全球变暖和各种极端天气事件发生频率的增加，气候变化已成为全世界关注的焦点问题，ENSO事件是年际尺度上气候变化的最强信号，它的影响波及到世界各地，所以，对ENSO事件进行深入研究，弄清其发生机制，具有重要的科学意义。虽然，目前对ENSO事件的研究已经取得了巨大成果，但仍不能对其发生发展的全过程进行准确的预测，因此，仍需要对其进行深入研究，本文正是从热带太平洋次表层温度场和流场的变化着手，对ENSO循环过程中的相关机理进行研究。 通过对TOGA/TAO、SODA和NCEP等海洋大气实测和再分析资料的分析，研究了热带太平洋次表层海温和流场的变化特征，分析了它们的变化机理，进而深入探讨了它们与ENSO事件的相互关系，并利用全球海洋数值模式的敏感性试验，探讨了大气风场的变化对海洋次表层要素的影响，主要得到以下结论： 1. 上世纪70年代末的气候突变之后，用28℃定义西太平洋暖池（WPWP），已不能合理的描述WPWP的基本特征。我们通过对比分析提出，用28.5℃来定义WPWP更合理，这一定义即可以充分反映WPWP突变前的特征，又能够合理的反映WPWP突变后的特征；对新定义的WPWP区域不同深度的海温距平的分析表明，次表层（148m）海温距平的变化趋势和变化幅度与表层和深层的变化差异较大，次表层海温的变化幅度最大并且年代际变化趋势与上下层正好相反；进一步的研究表明，WPWP次表层海温的年代际变化与PDO的变化有一定关系。 2. 利用热带太平洋次表层海温的变化特征，定义了表征ENSO事件的新指数——赤道太平洋温跃层海温振荡指数（EPOI），与其它ENSO指数相比，EPOI将东、西太平洋次表层海温的变化信息都包括在内，能够较全面的反映出ENSO事件的变化特征，特别是EPOI可以较好的反映出ENSO循环的年代际变化特征。另外，EPOI的变化比ONI的变化超前2个月，更有利于对ENSO事件的提前预报。由于EPOI主要反映海洋次表层的变化特征，因此能够更好的满足对ENSO机理研究的需要。 3. 赤道潜流距平场的EOF分析表明，其前两个模态的方差贡献较大，第一模态方差贡献为30.75%，主要反映东太平洋赤道潜流的变化特征；第二模态方差贡献为16.18%，主要反映中太平洋赤道潜流的变化特征。赤道潜流前两个模态与ENSO指数的变化有很好的相关关系，其中东太平洋潜流在滞后ENSO指数1个月时，二者达到最大负相关（r=-0.74）。中太平洋赤道潜流的变化对“东部型”和“中部型”El Niño事件的形成有一定影响。“东部型”El Niño事件发生前，中太平洋赤道潜流异常增强，次表层异常海温信号随着潜流中心迅速向东移动到达东太平洋，使得“东部型”El Niño事件爆发；而“中部型”El Niño事件发生前，中太平洋赤道潜流则异常减弱，西太平洋异常海温信号不能迅速向东传播，而是在中西太平洋堆积并向上扩展，使得异常海温首先在中太平洋出现，“中部型”El Niño事件爆发。 4. ENSO循环过程中，异常冷（暖）信号之所以在8ºN-10ºN附近向西传播的原因较多，其中温跃层深度在8ºN-10ºN的特殊分布特征对其有一定贡献，具体表现为在北半球8ºN-10ºN正好是温跃层深度较浅的区域，该区域的温跃层相当于从东到西的一个海下“山脊”，使得来自南北两侧的异常信号都很难穿过这一区域，而只能沿该纬度向西传播；而南半球的温跃层对来自赤道地区的异常信号没有阻挡作用，使其可以直接传播到高纬度地区。ENSO信号的强度在传播过程中发生了明显的变化，主要是ENSO事件爆发后，4-5年的周期信号并没有传到东太平洋10ºN附近，在从东到西的传播过程中，4-5年的周期信号有所增加，但增加的幅度较小。在西太平洋有来自南、北半球中高纬度异常信号的补充，从而使得ENSO循环得以维持。 5. 数值模拟表明，不同区域风应力的变化对海洋的影响各不相同。赤道地区风应力对海洋的影响主要通过纬向分量的变化来产生作用，它的变化主要对赤道次表层海温的变化产生影响，并且东西太平洋呈现反位相变化趋势；而对流场的影响则是上下层反位相变化。北太平洋副热带地区风应力的变化对海洋的影响与赤道有明显不同，对温度场的影响表现为东西太平洋次表层海温的变化一致，而对流速的影响则是东西太平洋反位相变化。

孟加拉湾表层盐度季节变化和ENSO循环的拓展伴随模态分析

本文采用旋转经验正交函数分析和拓展伴随模态分析方法研究孟加拉湾表层盐度的季节变化，结果表明其主要特征是西北淡水羽（位于湾的西北部）和东北淡水羽（位于湾的东北部）的季节性演变。西北淡水羽始于7月初，8月底达到峰值，10月底转变为湾形淡水羽；湾形淡水羽集中分布在孟加拉湾的西北和东北沿岸附近，并在第2年1月转变为东北淡水羽。 孟加拉湾北部的环流（地转流+Ekman漂流）对淡水羽的形成和演变起重要作用。Sverdrup环流，代表对风应力的正压响应，能部分解释除了秋季湾形淡水羽的东支之外淡水羽的形成机制和演变过程。海表淡水通量与淡水羽在空间上分布不一致：当孟加拉湾东北部的海表淡水通量急剧增加（减少）时，西北淡水羽（湾形淡水羽的东支）产生，所以海表淡水通量不是淡水羽的形成和演变的主要原因。此外，孟加拉湾周边河流的径流量可能只是淡水羽的主要淡水来源，而与淡水羽的形成和演变关系不大。 初步研究了孟加拉湾北部盐度对海面高度异常的影响，结果表明Ekman 抽吸对孟加拉湾的海面高度异常起着主要作用，热量通量和淡水通量起次要作用。7－12月，孟加拉湾北部的淡水通量决定北部的海面比容高度异常；1－3月，热量通量对海面比容高度异常起主要作用；4－6 月，热量通量和淡水通量在不同时空对孟加拉湾北部的海面比容高度异常起不同的作用。 同样，采用拓展伴随模态分析方法研究ENSO循环的暖位相——El Niño，表明必须将中低纬度印度洋和太平洋海气系统作为一个整体来研究El Niño；证实了正是直接来自南北中纬度太平洋的异常西风爆发和海面风辐聚所驱动的近赤道异常表层海水东移和经向辐聚，而不是Kelvin波，造就了El Niño现象的增温信号。El Niño事件中海洋和大气具有明显不同的性态：气候系统中并不存在一个相对独立的热带太平洋大气变异，但是的确存在一个相对独立的热带太平洋海洋变异。总体上而言：El Niño事件早期主要是大气驱动海洋，晚期主要是海洋驱动大气。 研究结果显示拓展伴随模态分析方法是研究ENSO循环和海洋水文特征形成机制的有力工具。

全新世亚洲季风, ENSO及高北纬度气候间的关联

着重评述全新世东亚季风与印度季风之间, 季风与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动现象之间, 以及它们与北大西洋气候变化之间关联方面的研究进展. 近年来的观测和气候代用记录显示, 在年际至轨道时间尺度上, 两季风强度变化存在反相变化关系, 它与赤道太平洋上的厄尔尼诺现象和北大西洋深层水变化之间可能有密切联系. 发生在全新世的4k 事件和8k 事件, 可能是两次严重的古厄尔尼诺事件, 集中地反映了这些重要气候变化现象和过程之间的相互作用和影响. 为了深入认识这些古气候现象之间的关系, 今后应加强亚洲季风区划及季风代用记录的对比, 加强赤道太平洋高分辨率SST 代用记录及古气候模拟研究工作.

全球气候变暖争议中的核心问题

综合分析了全球气候变暖争议中的3个核心问题:①全球变暖停滞了吗?回答是不一定。虽然根据HadCRUT3序列显示1999—2008年温度增量很小,但是这10年仍是过去30年中最暖的10年。而根据NASAGISS序列,则同期温度增量仍达到0.19℃/10a。目前全球地表气温在一个较暖平台上振荡,不能忽视自然气候变率。②气候变暖完全是由人类活动造成的吗?回答是否定的。虽然温室效应加剧可能是全球变暖的主要原因。但是,ENSO、太阳活动、火山活动、热盐环流等对全球变暖也有影响,在年代际及年际尺度上其影响甚至有时可能

Stable isotopic compositions in Australian precipitation

Stable deuterium (delta D) and oxygen-18 (delta O-18) isotopes in 1962 to 2002 precipitation from the seven Australian stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) were used to investigate isotope characteristics including temporal and spatial distributions across different regions of Australia. On the basis of 1534 samples, the local meteoric water line (LMWL) was established as delta D = 7.10 delta O-18 + 8.21. delta O-18 showed a depletion trend from north and south to central Australia (a continental effect) and from west to east. Precipitation amount effects were generally greater than temperature effects, with quadratic or logarithmic correlations describing delta/T and delta/P better than linear relationships. Nonlinear stepwise regression was used to determine the significant meteorological control factors for each station, explaining about 50% or more of the delta O-18 variations. Geographical control factors for delta O-18 were given by the relationship delta O-18 (parts per thousand) = -0.005 longitude (degrees) - 0.034 latitude (degrees)-0.003 altitude (m) - 4.753. Four different types of d-excess patterns demonstrated particular precipitation formation conditions for four major seasonal rainfall zones. Finally, wavelet coherence (WTC) between delta O-18 and SOI confirmed that the influence of ENSO decreased from east and north to west Australia.

Evolution and variability of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Pliocene: Evidence from clay mineral records of the South China Sea

The Late Pliocene is thought to be characterized by the simultaneous intensification of both the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). However, the evolution of the EASM during the Pliocene remains still controversial and only little is known about the dynamics of the EASM during the Pliocene on orbital time scales. Here we use clay mineral assemblages in sediments from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea (SCS) to obtain proxy records of past changes in the EASM climate during the Pliocene. Provenance analysis suggests that illite, chlorite and kaolinite originated mainly from the Mekong River drainage area. Smectite was derived mainly from the Indonesian islands. The kaolinite/illite ratio and the chemical index of alteration (CIA) of siliciclastic sediments allowed us to reconstruct the history of chemical weathering and physical erosion of the Mekong River drainage area and thus, the evolution of,the EASM during the Pliocene. Our clay minerals proxy data suggests a stronger EASM during the Early Pliocene than during the Late Pliocene. We propose that the long-term evolution of the EASM has been driven by global cooling rather than the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. Spectral analysis of kaolinite/ illite ratio displays a set of strong periodicities at 100 ka, 30 ka, 28 ka, 25 ka, and 22 ka. with no clear obliquityrelated signal. Our study suggests that the Pliocene EASM intensity on orbital time scales is not only controlled by the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, but also strongly influenced by equatorial Pacific ENSO-like ocean atmosphere dynamics. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The variation of upper ocean structure and paleoproductivity in the Kuroshio source region during the last 200 kyr

A core from the source region of the Kuroshio warm current (east of the Luzon Island) was analyzed using several proxies in order to study the variability of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Primary productivity (PP) variations were deduced from variations in the coccolith flora. Primary productivity was higher during glacial periods (the end of Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 3, some periods in MIS 2 and 6), and decreased during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS Se and probably MIS 5c-5d), with the lowest PP in MIS 5e. variations in the delta C-13 difference in benthic and bulk carbonate, thus in the vertical gradient of delta C-13 in dissolved inorganic carbon (Delta delta C-13(c). (wuellerstorfi-N. dutertrei) and Delta delta C-13(c.) (wuellerstorfi-coccolith)) Coincided With the PP Changes, showing that export productivity was low during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS 5e and Holocene) and high during glacial periods (MIS 6, probably MIS 5c-5d, late MIS 4 and late MIS 3). Comparison of foraminiferal carbonate dissolution indicators and PP changes reveals that nannofossil assemblage in core Ph05-5 is not sensitive to carbonate dissolution intensity. The depth of the thermocline (DOT) was estimated from planktonic forminiferal assemblages, and was relatively greater during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS 5e, probably MIS 5c and Holocene) than during glacials (middle MIS 6, probably MIS 5b and 5d, some periods in MIS 4, MIS 3 and MIS 2). Good coherence between the paleoproductivity records and the DOT suggests that the DOT changes could be the primary control factor in changes of paleoproductivity, and the glacial high productivity in the Kuroshio source region could be associated with a global increase of nutrient concentration in the intermediate waters that upwelled into the photic zone. The low CO2 values derived for intervals of high productivity and a relatively shallow DOT suggest that the changes in biological productivity and DOT in the equatorial Pacific could have modified atmospheric CO2 concentrations. High Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) during the warm MIS 5e in combination with intensified monsoonal rain fall could have resulted in a more intense stratification of the upper waters, resulting in low nutrient supply to the surface waters and a resulting decrease in productivity. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.