青藏高原东部混农季节性放牧及其对高山林线格局的影响

混农季节性放牧（agropastoral transhumance）通过作物种植和畜牧生产相结合的方式对不同海拔高度带上的资源进行相互补充利用，在亚洲兴都库什地区、青藏高原、横断山、东部及南部非洲、南美安第斯地区等具有悠久的历史。这种传统的生计系统几千年以来一直是居住在该地区的人类社会和自然生态系统相互作用的主要形式之一。这种传统的资源利用方式与山地自然植被以及特殊的山地人类文化和社会特征具有密切的协同演变关系。认识和理解这一关系，是山地生态学和人类学的核心科学问题之一。近年来，山地生态系统的多重功能性及动态演变对山区社会经济可持续发展的重要意义受到人们的不断关注。本文通过对云南省德钦县的12个自然村的混农季节性放牧以及对云南德钦、四川壤塘等山地植被格局特别是高海拔地带植被格局的的详细调查，探讨青藏高原东缘地区混农季节性放牧的主要特征、系统构成及相互关系，及其在全球变化、经济全球化和市场化及现代化过程中的变化趋势，分析混农季节性放牧与高山林线格局及生态系统的互动关系，旨在探讨山地地区人类活动与自然生态系统之间的互动关系，从而为山区社会经济可持续发展、环境建设和生物多样性保护等国家战略提供理论依据。 调查结果表明，混农季节性放牧是一种适应青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区环境因子及自然资源呈明显的垂直分布、资源数量稀少而时空分布异质性极高的生存环境的一种传统经济形式。这种传统的畜牧业的主要生产目的仍然是提供当地基本生存所需的产品，饲养牲口的种类和数量取决于农户的当地需求并且受资源的限制，因而维持在比较低的水平的。分布在不同海拔高度的放牧资源在一年中被牲口利用的时间也不同，互为补充，共同构成混农季节性放牧的资源基础。根据各社区永久居住点的位置和该村的土地资源特别是牧草地资源的分布范围，牲口迁移的距离和格局有较大的差异。。天然牧场仍然是最主要的畜牧业生产资源。混农季节性放牧中的农业系统和牧业系统互为补充，共同构成调查地区完整的的生计系统，农耕活动为放牧活动提供精饲料如粮食等和冬季饲料如秸秆， 其数量往往成为家庭畜牧业生产规模的主要决定因子之一。 通过对牲口数量和结构、牲口的时空迁移格局、牧业活动在整个经济活动中的相对重要性以及牧业活动和作物种植的关系方面的研究分析，混农季节性放牧在近几十年发生了深刻的变化。主要表现在牲口数量总体下降，牲口组成发生变化，牲口移动性降低、牧业活动的经济重要性下降以及牧业活动和种植活动之间的相互依存度降低等。上述变化的根本驱动力是发生在当地、地区及全球尺度上的环境、政治、社会经济、技术和文化等的变化，从而造成当地群众畜牧生产目标、土地利用和劳动力的分布等发生了变化。当地生计系统发生的改变可能会带来对方面而深刻的政治、社会经济、文化和生态影响。 混农季节性放牧这种古老的传统生计策略面临着许多挑战，如冬季饲料短缺、草场退化、缺乏市场竞争力、经济重要性降低、对年轻人缺乏吸引力、国家缺乏专门的政策指导等。与此同时，经济全球化、市场经济、新技术的应用、替代生计机会的增加、国家对于山地生态系统的作用的重新定位等也为传统生计系统转型、实现社会与生态共赢创造了机遇。 混农季节性放牧活动对亚高山及树线交错带生态系统系统的互动方式主要体现在以下几个方面：（1）牲口啃食、践踏等影响森林群落更新，改变森林群落的组成和结构，从而影响森林群落的演替进程和植被格局。林线边缘是搭建夏棚的首选地点，因此林线及树线交错地带就成了牲口活动的主要场所之一；（2）利用火烧开辟、维持和改良高山牧场； 3）在亚高山火灾迹地的放牧活动能够阻止火烧迹地的顺向演替； 4）牧民在林线附近获取建材和薪材等活动影响高山林线附近森林的结构和功能。 在调查区域，梅里雪山、白马雪山、甲午雪山的林线海拔高度在4200-4300m之间； 四川雅江、理塘一线，林线位置多在4300-4400m；四川壤塘二林场一带的林线主体在4100-4200m，在个别地区达到4300m； 在贡嘎山的南坡和东坡一带，林线位置在3600-3700m；而在四川松潘一带，林线位置主体在3700-3800米左右。树线高度的分布趋势和林线一致。混农季节性放牧及其有关人类利用活动使研究地区很多地方高山林线降低、树线交错带宽变窄或消失。在研究地区，总体情况是，阳坡和半阳坡（南坡、西南坡等）的林线和树线比阴坡和半阴坡（北坡、东北坡等）低，变化幅度达20-200m。这种差异主要是为了开辟牧场而人为清除了南向坡自然林线及其以上的植被从而使林线位置下降所致。在南坡自然林线保留得比较好的地方，林线和树线依然可以达到甚至超过北坡林线和树线的高度。放牧活动抑制了高山林线带火烧迹地的天然更新，从而使林线位置保持在目前的位置。 放牧活动对高山林线带森林群落更新的影响是显著的。自然林线内的乔木个体密度特别是新生苗和幼苗的密度大大高于非自然林线。没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带内的I级个体（新生苗）密度达到725-2917株/公顷，而与之相对的处理样地内I级个体的密度只有0-228株/公顷；II级个体（高度10-50cm）也表现出类似的趋势，在没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带样方内，其密度达到550-5208株/，而在放牧处理样方内只有14-321株/公顷。在非自然林线带样地内，在有正常放牧的样地内，完全缺乏I级个体。 从相对比例来看，没有放牧的样方内的I、II级个体在全部个体中所占的比例显著高于有放牧活动的样方。放牧使林线交错带的乔木幼苗数量显著减少，从而影响林线及树线交错带森林群落的天然更新过程。林线和树线交错带的灌木对乔木幼苗具有重要的保护作用，能够为树线树种如冷杉等幼苗的定居体提供有利的微气候环境，同时保护苗免受牲口的啃食和践踏。火烧以后接着进行放牧能够100%地抑制高山林线带的幼苗更新。 高山牧场放牧强度降低、使用时间缩短而低海拔地带放牧强度增加是研究地区混农季节性放牧系统的一个显著变化。这种变化也必然会引起各海拔带上的生态系统的变化。放牧强度的降低、生产性用火的停止将导致原来通过人工火烧而降低并通过进一步的火烧和放牧活动来维持的林线及其以上地带的灌木盖度和高度的增加，从而为林线森林群落的扩张创造条件。 青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区是我国重要的山地生态系统，在我国的生物多样性保护、生态环境建设、社会经济可持续发展战略中具有举足轻重的作用。正确认识人类特别是当地传统的生计系统与生态环境系统的互动关系是实现上述战略目标的前提。决策者必须以综合、系统的的视角协调促进社会经济可持续发展、保护生物及文化多样性和维持人、牲口和生态系统之间的平衡的多重目标。 Agropastoral transhumance, which makes a complementary exploitation of the natural resources at different altitudinal belts through a combination of migratory animal husbandry and crop cultivation, has a long history in Hindu-Kush Himalaya, Tibet Plateau, Hengduan Ranges, eastern and southern Africa and the Andes region of south America.For millennia, this traditional livelihood strategy has been one of the main forms of interaction between human societies inhabiting in these regions and their natural ecocystems. A close co-evolutionary relationship has been developed between this indigenous resources management systems and the mountain vegetation systems on the one hand and a unique set of cultural values and social features on the other. Understanding this relationship has been one of the core scientific issues in mountain ecology and anthropology. In recent years, the importance of the multiple functions of the mountain ecosystems and their dynamic changes in the sustainable socio-economic development of the mountain regions has gained increasing attention. This paper, which is based on a detailed study on the agropastoral practices of the 12 natural villages in Deqin County of Yunnan, and the mountainnn vegetation patterns in Deqin of Yunnan and Rangtang County of Sichuan, intends to reveal the major characteristics, system composition and the inter-relations of the subsystems of the agropastoral transhumance in Eastern Tibetan Plateau as well as the trends of changes of the system within the context of global changes, economic globalization and modernity process of China and analyze the relations between agropastoral transhumance and alpine ecosystem, ao as to understand the interactions between human activities and natural ecosystems of the mountains and provide theoretical basis for the national strategies in eocioeconomic development, environmental reconstruction and biodiversity conservation in the mountain regions. Results of the survey indicate that agropastoral transhumance in the investigated area is a traditional economic form that is highly adapted to the eastern Tibet Plateau where the topography features high peaks and deep gorges and where the highly variable environmental parameters and scanty natural resources exhibit a distinct vertical spectrum of distribution and great temporal and spatial heterogeneity. The main objective of pastoral management is still aimed at the production of basic goods and services of local people and thus the type and size of animals raised for each household mainly depend on local needs and are limited by the availability of natural resources. The scale of production is relatively low. Pastoral resources at different altidudinal belts are complementarily used at different seasons of a year and thus form the resources basis for agropastoral production of the study area. Migration distances and patterns vary with the location of the permanent settlements, the elevational distribution range of the resources of the villages concerned. Natural pastures (rangelands) are the main fodder resources and sumplement feedings only account for less than 5% of the total fodder consumption. Crop cultivation and pastoral activities support each other to form a complete livelihood system. The ability of the farmig lands (crop cultivation) to provide the pastoral activities with concentrates and sumplements often becomes a main factor limiting the scale of livestock production at household level. Agropastoral transhumance is experiencing drastic changes in recent decades as is reflected in the size and composition of animals, the seasonal migration pattern, the relative importance of pastoralism in the household economy and the interplays of agricultural and pastoral elements of the system. In general, there is a decline in animal population and mobility, a shift in animal composition to meet new needs arising from changed macro-economic situation, a decrease in the relative importance in the household economy and an increasing decoupling of agro&pastoral relations. The fundamental divers of these changes can be traced to environmental, social, economic, technological and cultural changes from local to global levels and such changes have further caused local changes in livestock management objectives, land use and distribution of labor forces. Changes in local livelihood systems could have profound political, socioeconomic, cultural and ecological conseuquences. Agropastoral transhumance, as an age-old traditional livelihood strategy, is facing multifacet challenges, such as winter fodder shortage, rangeland degradation, lack of market competitiveness, decrease in economic importance, lack of appreciation among the young generation and adequate policies from the government. At the same time, economic globalization, market economy, intrdoctution of new technologies, increase of alternative income generating opportunities and the national re-oreitation of policies on mountain ecosystems have all brought about new opportunities for the transformation of the traditional livelihood system and the synchronized development of local society and the environment. Agropastoral transhumance interacts with the ecosystems at the timberline and treeline ecotone mainly through the following aspects: 1)Animal browsing and stamping affect the regeneration process of the forest communities and alters the composition and structure of the forest which in turn affect the succession process and vegetation pattern of the forest communities. Forest edges are the priority locations for summer houses and therefore the timeline and treeline area becomes the major venues of aninal activities; （2）herders create, maintain and improve pastures through burning that remove the forest communities at the timeline and treeline ecotone; 3）immediate grazing on the fire sites can significantly prevent the fire sites from perogressive succession; and 4）herders harvesting of construction timber and firewoods affects the structure and functions of the forest communities at the timberline and treeline zone. Timberline position in the survey region shows geographical variations. It is around 4200-4300m in Meilixueshan, Baimaxueshan and Jiawuxueshan in Northwest of Yunnan and rises to 4300-4400m in Yajiang County and Litang County of Sichuan. In Rangtang of Sichuan, it is between 4100-4200m, though reaching 4300m in localized sites. In the southern and eastern slopes of Gongga Mountain, the timberline is only between 3600m and 3700m and in Songpan County at the upper reach of the Minjiang River the timberline is around 3700-3800m.Treeline pattern follows similar trend. In many places, agropastoral transhumance and related human activities have lowered the timberline and treeline and narrowed or removed the treeline ecotone. In the area of survey, generally speaking, timberlines and treelines are lower on the southern slopes than on the northern slopes, with a difference between 20 and 200m. This is mainly because that the use of fires to crerate pastures has removed the forest vegetation at the previous timberline and above. In fact, in many places, well-preserved forests on the south slopes have even high timberline position that the corresponding northern slopes. At subalpine zone, grazing activities could have prohibited the natural regeneration of many forest fire sites and maintained the forest position at the present level. Grazing has a significant impact on the regernation process of forest communities at the timberline zone. Natural timberline and treeline ecotone has much higher density of treeline species individuals especially the emergents and seedlings than the timberlines that are maintained by human activities. In natural timberline and treelien ecotone without grazing interference, the density of the I Class seedlings (less than 10cm in height) ranges 725-2917 /hm2; while that in the treatment plots (with grazing disturbance) is only 0-228//hm2；II Class seedlings (10-50cm）exhibit similar density trends, reaching 550-5208//hm2 in natural timberline without grazing but only 14-321//hm2 in the plots with grazing treatment. In the man-created timberlines, there is no I Class seedling at all in plots with normal grazing activities. In relative terms, in plots without grazing activities, the propotion of I Class and II Class seedlings is much higher than that in plots with grazing. Grazing activities have significantly reduced the number of seedlings in the timberline ane treeline ecotone, and thus affect the natural regeneration process of the forests. Shrubs at the timberline and treeline ecotone can effectively protect the seedlings from severe climate and animal tramping, thus increasing the survival rate of the seedlings. Grazing following fires can completely inhibit forest regeneration process at timberline. Changes in agropastoral transhumance will have great impact on the timberline and treeline pattern of the studied area. The decrease in grazing intensity on alpine pastrues and the cessation of the use of fires will result an increase in the cover and height of shrubs above the present human-maintained treeline, which will create further condition for the expansion of timberline forest communities. Eastern Tibet Plateau harbors some most important mountain ecosystems of China that are of vital importance to the country’s strategy in biodiversity conservation, environmental construction and sustainable sociaoeconomic development. A proper knowledge of the interactions between traditional livelihood systems and the ecosystems in the region is a precondition to the realization of the above strategic goals. Therefore, the decision-makers must have a holistic and systemic perspective so as to integrate the multiple objectives of promoting sustainable socioeconomic development, conserving biological and cultural diversity and maintaining the balances among people, animal population and the ecosystems.

基于ISO9000和CMM的软件配置管理系统的研究

1 概述随着软件系统的日益复杂化和用户需求、软件更新的频繁化,配置管理逐渐成为软件生命周期中的重要控制过程,成为软件工程中质量管理中的重要内容。软件配置管理(Software Configuration Management)是通过技术或行政手段对软件产品及其开发过程和生命周期进行控制、规范的一系列措施。配置管理的目标是记录软件产品的演化过程,确保软件开发者在软件生命周期中各个阶段都能得到精确的产品配置。它通过控制、记录、追踪对软件的修改和每个修改生成的软件组成部件来实现对软件产品的管理功能。为了保证对产品有效地进行控制和追踪,配置管理过程不能仅仅对静态的、成形的产品进行管理,而必须对动态的、成长的产品进行管理。由此可见,配置管理同软件开发过程紧密相关。配置管理必须紧扣软件开发过程的各个环节,使整个开发团队象一个交响乐

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

基于GIS的高速公路养护管理信息系统的设计与开发

China is experiencing a rapid development of highway ever since 1990s. By the end of 2004, the total length of the highway summed up to 33 thousand kilometers, ranking 2n in the world. After the open of highway, the accumulation of time and traffic causes the decrease of its capability. To ensure its good quality, security and operation functions, we should take some reasonable measures to maintain it periodically. At present, a big problem is that the traditional maintain measures can no longer meet the increasing requirements. Due to the characters of highway, the relationship of various maintenance data and geographic positions is even closer than any others. If we wan to improve the quality and efficiency of the maintenance work, particularly when there is need for decision-making, a great number of data that is related to geographic positions are absolutely necessary. Evidently, Geographical Information System (GIS) has incomparably advantages in dealing with these spatial information. As a result, a management system for highway maintenance work based on GIS became inevitable for the development of the maintenance of highway. The purpose of this paper is to establish a management system for highway maintenance work base on Geographical Information System (GIS), Global Positioning System (GPS) and spatial database, to manage all kinds of problems encountered in the work, and to provide support on information and methods. My study mainly includes: (1) Analysis on the current status of the maintenance and management work; overview on the history of domestic and international highway maintenance management systems; identifying the necessity and importance for establishing a management system for highway maintenance work based on GIS. (2) Based on the requirement analysis, I proposed a general design for this management system, and discussed the objective, design principles, framework, systematical structure and function design. (3) Outdoor data collection is not only a prime way to understand the current situation of the road, but also an important method for data update after the system is put into use. This paper also intends to establish a set of plan to collect data efficiently and precisely which is based on GIS and GPS technologies. (4) The maintenance management database is a supporting platform for various maintenance decision-makings. Such decisions need the support of a great amount of data, which would cause other problems, such as the diversity of the data source, difference of data formats. This paper also discussed how to deal with these problems and establish such a database. (5) To propose an approach to assess the condition of pavement, based on GIS and related maintenance models. Among all the maintenance models, the two for assessing and forecasting pavement condition are the most important and mature. This paper also analyzed these two models and introduced them in terms of the integration of models. (6) This paper took the Guangshen Highway for example, explaining how to realize a GIS for management of highway maintenance work.