油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

填土边坡水文作用机理与破坏过程研究—以深圳羊宝地填土滑坡为例

A full understanding of failure mechanism, critical hydrological condition, and process of mobilization and deposition of a landslide is essential for optimal design of stabilization measure and forecasting of landslide hazard. This requires a quantitative study of hydrological response of a slope to rainfall through field monitoring, laboratory test and numerical modelling. At 13:40 on September 18, 2002, a fill slope failed following a period of prolonged rain in Shenzhen, resulting in 5 fatalities and 31 injuries. The failed mass with a volume about 2.5×104m3 traveled about 140m on level ground. Field monitoring, laboratory test, theoretical analysis and numerical modelling were carried out to undestand the hydrological response and failure mechanism of this fill slope. This thesis mainly focuses on the following aspects: (1) The hydrological responses and failure processes of slopes under rainfall infiltration were reviewed. Firstly, the factors influencing on the hydrological responses of slopes were analysed. Secondly, the change of stress state of slope soil and modelling methods of slope failure under rainfall infiltration were reviewed. (2) The characteristics of the Yangbaodi landslide and associated rainfall triggering the failure were presented. The failure was characterized by shallow flowslide, due to an increase of ground water table caused by rainfall infiltration. (3) A fully automated instrumentation was carried out to monitor rainfall, and saturated – unsaturated hydrological response of the fill slope, using a raingauge, piezometers, tensiometers and moisture probes. A conceptual hydrogeological model was presented based on field monitoring and borehole data. Analysis of monitoring data showed that the high pore water pressure in fill slope was caused by upward flow of semiconfined groundwater in the moderately decomposed granite. (4) Laboratory and in-situ testing was performed to study the physical and mechanical properties of fills. Isotropically consolidated undrained compression tests and anisotropically consolidated constant shear stress tests were carried out to understand the failure mechanism of the fill slope. It is indicated that loosely compacted soil is of strain-softening behaviour under undrained conditions, accompanied with a rapid increase in excess pore water pressure. In anisotropically consolidated constant shear stress tests, a very small axial strain was required to induce the failure and the excess pore water pressure increased quickly at failure. This indicated that static liquefaction caused by rise in groundwater table due to rainfall infiltration occurred. (5) The hydraulic conductivity of the highly and moderately decomposed granite was estimated using monitering data of pore water pressure. A saturated – unsaturated flow was modeled to study the hydrological response of the fill slope using rainfall records. It was observed that the lagged failure was due to the geological conditions and the discrepancy of hydraulic conductivity of slope soils. The hydraulic conductivity of moderately decomposed granite is relatively higher than the other materials, resulting in a semiconfied groundwater flow in the moderately decomposed granite, and subsequent upward flow into the upper fill layer. When the ground water table in the fill layer was increased to the critical state, the fill slope failed. (6) Numerical exercises were conducted to replay the failure process of the fill slope, based on field monitoring, laboratory and in-situ testing. It was found that the fill slope was mobilized by a rapid transfer of the concentrated shear stress. The movement of failure mass was characterized by viscosity fluid with a gradual increase in velocity. The failure process, including mobilization and subsequent movement and deposition, was studied using numerical methods.