Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Experimental Evidence of Critical Sensitivity in Catastrophe

The paper presents an experimental study on critical sensitivity in rocks. Critical sensitivity means that the response of a system to external controlling variable may become significantly sensitive as the system approaches its catastrophic rupture point. It is found that the sensitivities measured by responses on three scales (sample scale, locally macroscopic scales and mesoscopic scale) display increase prior to catastrophic transition point. These experimental results do support the concept that critical sensitivity might be a common precursory feature of catastrophe. Furthermore, our previous theoretical model is extended to explore the fluctuations in critical sensitivity in the rock tests.

Mechanical effects of the self-organization of dislocations and related critical characteristics

The effects of the dislocation pattern formed due to the self-organization of the dislocations in crystals on the macroscopic hardening and dynamic internal friction (DIF) during deformation are studied. The classic dislocation models for the hardening and DIF corresponding to the homogeneous dislocation configuration are extended to the case for the non-homogeneous one. In addition, using the result of dislocation patterning deduced from the non-linear dlislocation dynamics model for single slip, the correlation between the dislocation pattern and hardening as well as DIF is obtained. It is shown that in the case of the tension with a constant strain rate, the bifurcation point of dislocation patterning corresponds to the turning point in the stress versus strain and DIF versus strain curves. This result along with the critical characteristics of the macroscopic behavior near the bifurcation point is microscopically and macroscopically in agreement with the experimental findings on mono-crystalline pure aluminum at temperatures around 0.5T(m). The present study suggests that measuring the DIF would be a sensitive and useful mechanical means in order to study the critical phenomenon of materials during deformation.

Two critical crack propagating velocities for PMMA fracture surface

Ultrasonic fractography and scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) are used to determine the direct relationship between the fracture surface morphology and the main crack velocity during the rapid rupture of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA). Two critical crack velocities are found for the fracture. Quasi-parabolic markings will appear when the crack speed exceeds the first critical speed. Crack propagating at speed above the second critical speed leaves a thicket of small branches penetrating the surface behind them. Both critical speeds are functions of the thickness of the specimens.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

A New Ignition Criterion Based Upon a Critical Thermal Energy Density

It has long been known that various ignition criteria of energetic materials have been limited in applicability to small regions. In order to explore the physical nature of ignition, we calculated how much thermal energy per unit mass of energetic materials was absorbed under different external stimuli. Hence, data of several typical sensitivity tests were analyzed by order of magnitude estimation. Then a new concept on critical thermal energy density was formulated. Meanwhile, the chemical nature of ignition was probed into by chemical kinetics.

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Modeling Nonlinear Peeling of Ductile Thin Films-Critical Assessment of Analytical Bending Models Using FE Simulations

Three analytical double-parameter criteria based on a bending model and a two-dimensional finite element analysis model are presented for the modeling of ductile thin film undergoing a nonlinear peeling process. The bending model is based on different governing parameters: (1) the interfacial fracture toughness and the separation strength, (2) the interfacial fracture toughness and the crack tip slope angle, and (3) the interfacial fracture toughness and the critical Mises effective strain of the delaminated thin film at the crack tip. Thin film nonlinear peeling under steady-state condition is solved with the different governing parameters. In addition, the peeling test problem is simulated by using the elastic-plastic finite element analysis model. A critical assessment of the three analytical bending models is made by comparison of the bending model solutions with the finite element analysis model solutions. Furthermore, through analyses and comparisons for solutions based on both the bending model and the finite element analysis model, some connections between the bending model and the finite element analysis model are developed. Moreover, in the present research, the effect of different selections for cohesive zone shape on the ductile film peeling solutions is discussed.

Critical Sensitivity and Trans-Scale Fluctuations in Catastrophic Rupture

Rupture in the heterogeneous crust appears to be a catastrophe transition. Catastrophic rupture sensitively depends on the details of heterogeneity and stress transfer on multiple scales. These are difficult to identify and deal with. As a result, the threshold of earthquake-like rupture presents uncertainty. This may be the root of the difficulty of earthquake prediction. Based on a coupled pattern mapping model, we represent critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations associated with catastrophic rupture. Critical sensitivity means that a system may become significantly sensitive near catastrophe transition. Trans-scale fluctuations mean that the level of stress fluctuations increases strongly and the spatial scale of stress and damage fluctuations evolves from the mesoscopic heterogeneity scale to the macroscopic scale as the catastrophe regime is approached. The underlying mechanism behind critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations is the coupling effect between heterogeneity and dynamical nonlinearity. Such features may provide clues for prediction of catastrophic rupture, like material failure and great earthquakes. Critical sensitivity may be the physical mechanism underlying a promising earthquake forecasting method, the load-unload response ratio (LURR).

Influence Of Free Surface Curvature Of A Liquid Layer On The Critical Marangoni Convection

The Pearson instability was suggested to discuss the onset of Marangoni convection in a liquid layer of large Prandtl number under an applied temperature difference perpendicular to the free surface in the microgravity environment. In this case, the temperature distribution on the curved free surface is nonuniform, and the thermocapillary convection is induced and coupled with the Marangoni convection. In the present paper the effect of volume ratio of the liquid layer on the critical Marangoni convection and the corresponding spatial variation of the convection structure in zero-gravity condition were numerically investigated by two-dimensional model. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Peeling Experiments Of Ductile Thin Films Along Ceramic Substrates - Critical Assessment Of Analytical Models

Two types of peeling experiments are performed in the present research. One is for the Al film/Al2O3 substrate system with an adhesive layer between the film and the substrate. The other one is for the Cu film/Al2O3 substrate system without adhesive layer between the film and the substrate, and the Cu films are electroplated onto the Al2O3 substrates. For the case with adhesive layer, two kinds of adhesives are selected, which are all the mixtures of epoxy and polyimide with mass ratios 1:1.5 and 1:1, respectively. The relationships between energy release rate, the film thickness and the adhesive layer thickness are measured during the steady-state peeling process. The effects of the adhesive layer on the energy release rate are analyzed. Using the experimental results, several analytical criteria for the steady-state peeling based on the bending model and on the two-dimensional finite element analysis model are critically assessed. Through assessment of analytical models, we find that the cohesive zone criterion based on the beam bend model is suitable for a weak interface strength case and it describes a macroscale fracture process zone case, while the two-dimensional finite element model is effective to both the strong interface and weak interface, and it describes a small-scale fracture process zone case. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On The Interaction Of Channeling/Segmentation Cracks Of Coating: Study On The Critical Spacing

Channeling/segmentation cracks may arise in the coating subjected to in-plane tensile stress. The interaction between these multiple cracks, say the effect of the spacing between two adjacent cracks oil the behaviors of channels themselves and the interface around the interface corners, attracts wide interest. However, if the spacing is greater than a specific magniture,, namely the Critical Spacing (CS), there should be no interaction between such channeling/segmentation cracks. In this study, file mechanism of the effect of the crack spacing oil the interfacial stress around the interface corner will be Interpreted firstly. Then the existence of the CS will be verified and the relationship between the CS and the so-called stress transfer length Ill coating will be established for plane strain condition. Finally, the dependence of the stress transfer length, simultaneously of the CS, on the sensitive parameters will be investigated with finite element method and expressed with a simple empirical formula. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Search For Critical Slip Surface In Slope Stability Analysis By Spline-Based Ga Method

The stability of a soil slope is usually analyzed by limit equilibrium methods, in which the identification of the critical slip surface is of principal importance. In this study the spline curve in conjunction with a genetic algorithm is used to search the critical slip surface, and Spencer's method is employed to calculate the factor of safety. Three examples are presented to illustrate the reliability and efficiency of the method. Slip surfaces defined by a series of straight lines are compared with those defined by spline curves, and the results indicate that use of spline curves renders better results for a given number of slip surface nodal points comparing with the approximation using straight line segments.

Critical serrated flow features during nanoindentation in La-based bulk metallic glasses

La57.6Al17.5(Cu,Ni)(24.9) and La64Al14(Cu,Ni)(22) bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) were prepared by copper-mould casting method. Plastic deformation behavior of the two BMGs at various loading rates was studied by nanoindentation. The results showed that the La57.6Al17.5(Cu,Ni)(24.9) BMG with a glass transition temperature of 423 K exhibited prominent serrated flow at low loading rates, whereas less pronounced serrated flow at high rates during nanoindentation. In contrast, the La64Al14(Cu,Ni)(22) BMG with a glass transition temperature of 401 K exhibited prominent serrated flow at high loading rates. The different rate dependency of serrated flow in the two La-based BMGs is related to the different glass transition temperature, and consequently the degree of viscous flow during indentation at room temperature. A smoother flow occurs in the alloy with relatively lower glass transition temperature, due to the relaxation of stress concentration.

Analysis of critical excavation depth for a jointed rock slope using a face-to-face discrete element method

The critical excavation depth of a jointed rock slope is an important problem in rock engineering. This paper studies the critical excavation depth for two idealized jointed rock slopes by employing a face-to-face discrete element method (DEM). The DEM is based on the discontinuity analysis which can consider anisotropic and discontinuous deformations due to joints and their orientations. It uses four lump-points at each surface of rock blocks to describe their interactions. The relationship between the critical excavation depth D-s and the natural slope angle alpha, the joint inclination angle theta as well as the strength parameters of the joints c(r) ,phi(r) is analyzed, and the critical excavation depth obtained with this DEM and the limit equilibrium method (LEM) is compared. Furthermore, effects of joints on the failure modes are compared between DEM simulations and experimental observations. It is found that the DEM predicts a lower critical excavation depth than the LEM if the joint structures in the rock mass are not ignored.