中国北方温带地区针茅和锦鸡儿属植物的分布格局模拟及气候变化影响评价

在我国，小叶锦鸡儿（Caragana microphylla）、中间锦鸡儿（Caragana intermedia）、柠条锦鸡儿（Caragana korshinskii）、藏锦鸡儿（Caragana tibetica）和狭叶锦鸡儿（Caragana stenophylla）主要分布于北方温带地区，是造林、固沙、饲用及观赏的重要灌木，而贝加尔针茅（Stipa baicalensisi）、大针茅（Stipa grandis）、克氏针茅（Stipa krylovii）、本氏针茅（Stipa bungeana）、短花针茅（Stipa breviflora）、沙生针茅（Stipa glareosa）和戈壁针茅（Stipa gobica）是我国北方温带地区具有重要饲用价值和水土保持功效的多年生密丛禾草。这5种锦鸡儿灌木和7种针茅草本植物在东北、华北和西北地区的生态环境建设及社会经济发展中发挥特殊作用。关于它们地理分布与气候关系的深入研究十分必要，可以为其种质资源的开发和改善生态环境提供理论依据。 本研究首先全面收集这12个物种在中国北方温带干旱－半干旱地区的全部地理分布资料，利用ArcGIS 9.0软件绘制现状分布图。通过分析其现实分布格局，发现小叶锦鸡儿、中间锦鸡儿和柠条锦鸡儿在空间上呈现出从东到西的地理替代分布格局，继续向西南方向则分布有藏锦鸡儿，向西北方向分布有狭叶锦鸡儿。贝加尔针茅、大针茅、克氏针茅和戈壁针茅也在空间上呈现出自东向西的地理替代分布格局，克氏针茅向南被本氏针茅替代，短花针茅和沙生针茅没有明显的地理替代分布现象。5种锦鸡儿和7种针茅的分布范围分别又都有一定的重叠。 整理12个物种分布区内的气象台站长期记录，选择计算16个具有重要生物学意义的水热指标值;进而用方差分析、多重比较和因子分析相结合的方法，研究控制这5种锦鸡儿和7种针茅地理分布的主导驱动因子。结果表明：控制小叶锦鸡儿和中间锦鸡儿间地理分布差异的主导因子是水分因子，特别是湿度;水分因子同样是控制中间锦鸡儿和柠条锦鸡儿间地理分布差异的主导因子，特别是生长季及年降水量;控制柠条锦鸡儿和藏锦鸡儿间地理分布差异的主导因子是夏季高温，控制柠条锦鸡儿和狭叶锦鸡儿地理分布差异的是冬季低温。控制贝加尔针茅、大针茅、克氏针茅和戈壁针茅间替代分布的主导气候因子是年降水量和生长季降水量。控制克氏针茅和本氏针茅间替代分布的主导气候因子是温暖指数。 运用耦合BIOCLIM模型的软件包“DIVA-GIS”模拟预测这5种锦鸡儿和7种针茅的现状潜在分布区及未来气候变化的影响。结果表明：现状潜在分布区与实际分布区均有很好的一致性;在CO2浓度加倍的未来气候情景下，这些植物都会向北大幅度迁移，在我国的分布范围均缩小，分布格局发生显著变化。用ROC曲线和Kappa统计值法验证模型表明，BIOCLIM的模拟精度较高。利用BIOCLIM模型绘制了这12个物种的生物气候分室图，并根据生物气候分室确定了物种的最适气候范围。 为了研究锦鸡儿和针茅分布对气候变化的敏感性，本文在现实气象数据的基础上模拟预测了不同降水与温度变化情景下（保持年降水量不变，年均温分别增加1℃、2℃、3℃和4℃;保持年均温不变，年降水量分别增加和减少10％）的物种分布范围，发现随着气温升高和降水量增加，全部锦鸡儿和针茅都会向高纬度地区缓慢迁移，而当降水量减少时，它们将向低纬度地区迁移。不同气候情景下的物种分布范围迁移幅度表明，5种锦鸡儿中狭叶锦鸡儿和中间锦鸡儿的脆弱性相对较大，7种针茅中克氏针茅和贝加尔针茅的脆弱性相对较大。气温的单独变化控制这些物种分布区的未来迁移。 最后，本文探索了锦鸡儿和针茅的气候变化影响的阈值。就核心分布区而言，小叶锦鸡儿、贝加尔针茅、大针茅、沙生针茅的气候变化影响阈值是气温升高4℃，降水减少10%;中间锦鸡儿和狭叶锦鸡儿是气温升高4℃，降水增加10%;柠条锦鸡儿和本氏针茅是气温升高4℃，降水不变;藏锦鸡儿是气温升高2℃，降水增加10%;克氏针茅和短花针茅是气温升高3℃，降水不变;戈壁针茅是气温升高1℃，降水不变。

需求变更影响分析模型及相关技术研究

需求是后续开发活动的基准，早期的一些研究者认为应该在需求完全确定之后再进行后续开发，Royce所提出的瀑布模型就是这种思想的一个体现。但是，实践经验告诉我们，不管前期的需求分析做的多么完美，需求还是会发生变更。一方面是因为需求本身很复杂，对它的分析、理解和描述是一个循序渐进的过程，不可能一蹴而就；另一方面由于用户期望和偏好的改变、市场环境的转变、使用环境的日益复杂、技术的革新等都会使得原有的软件系统无法满足各涉众的利益。因此，需求变更是软件开发中固有的规律，是不可避免和普遍存在的。 需求变更通常会导致需求间及需求与后续工作产品间的不一致。因此，频繁的需求变更会造成产品质量下降、进度延期、成本超支等问题。变更影响分析(Change Impact Analysis)通过分析变更对象及其相关工作产品间的关系来评估变更造成的影响，从而控制变更。现有方法多数是从软件维护的角度，对代码的变更影响进行分析，过于细节和技术化，不能对需求变更影响分析提供有力支持。即使针对需求变更的影响分析方法也只是基于形式化需求规约，通过分析需求间的关系来识别影响范围，并未考虑需求变更对后续工作产品造成的影响，同时形式化需求规约的应用困难也限制了该方法的实用性。此外，随着需求和工作产品的规模与复杂性日益增加，使得手工建立和维护需求间及需求与工作产品间关系面临着不小的难度。 基于以上分析，本文提出了针对自然语言需求规约的需求变更影响分析模型RCIAM (Requirement Change Impact Analysis Model)，围绕着如何自动识别和筛选需求间的关系——横向需求跟踪关系(Horizontal Requirement Traceability)、如何自动识别和筛选需求与工作产品间的关系——纵向需求跟踪关系(Vertical Requirement Traceability)、如何较全面的进行需求变更影响计算和决策三个问题展开了研究。 本文的主要贡献有： (1) 提出了需求变更影响分析模型RCIAM 本文对RCIAM进行了形式化定义。该模型不但提供了需求变更影响分析算法和对决策的支持，还提供了自动识别横向和纵向需求跟踪关系的方法。RCIAM主要包含数据处理和数据分析两个层次。数据处理层采用了文本处理(Text Processing)技术实现了横向和纵向需求跟踪关系的自动识别，为数据分析层提供需求跟踪关系数据；数据分析层基于需求跟踪关系数据，在产生需求变更申请(Change Request)时，进行量化影响计算，并提供决策支持。 (2) 提出了横向需求跟踪关系的识别与筛选方法 在对自然语言需求规约文档进行深入分析后，我们发现了两种与需求变更影响密切相关的关系类型，并从文本相似性的角度将它们定义为相似跟踪关系和引用跟踪关系。在将需求项拆分为需求片段的基础上，利用信息检索技术(Information Retrieval，IR)计算需求片段间的文本相似度，并设计了相应的算法对相似跟踪关系和引用跟踪关系进行自动识别。最后，提出了“变更影响跟踪”的规则来辅助对候选跟踪关系的人工筛选。 (3) 提出了纵向需求跟踪关系的识别与筛选方法 已有的研究多采用IR技术来自动建立需求与工作产品之间的跟踪关系，但是却存在着精度不理想的问题。我们从查全率(Recall)和查准率(Precision)的角度，分析了应用IR技术自动建立需求与代码跟踪关系的方法中产生的错误关系，发现了造成精度问题的根源所在。依据这一发现，基于现有方法，本文方法加入了相关反馈(Relvant Feedback)辅助识别和代码注释信息辅助识别等改进措施，并提供了人工筛选策略。 (4) 提出了需求变更影响分析计算与决策方法 本文通过矩阵运算说明了需求变更影响通过需求跟踪关系传播到其它需求和工作产品的过程，并设计了相应的需求变更影响分析算法。该算法考虑变更发生在不同阶段时对不同类型工作产品的影响，采用变更类型和关系强度两个因子加权计算影响值，并提出了根据影响值来进行变更决策的方法。 (5) 应用研究 结合中科方德公司Qone平台的开发，对以上工作进行了应用研究和性能分析。在Qone平台的需求管理工具版本1.0的开发中，首先采用本文方法对横向和纵向需求跟踪关系进行了自动识别，然后对开发期间发生的十次需求变更申请进行了影响分析和决策。在项目完成后，设计了实验对横向和纵向需求跟踪关系的识别进行了性能分析。结果表明，本文方法能够有效辅助进行需求变更影响分析。

分布式水文模型的误差分析

分布式水文模型以其具有明确物理意义的参数结构和对空间分异性的全面反映,能够准确详尽地描述和模拟流域内真实的降水径流过程而被广泛需求和关注。在模拟土地利用、土地覆盖、水土流失等各种变化过程的水文响应,面源污染、陆面过程、气候变化影响评价等诸多领域都有广泛的应用。模型的预报精度和误差至关重要,决定了模型的应用和推广。在分析分布式水文模型建立和验证过程的基础上,提出了模型的4类误差来源:被排除在外的因素引起的误差,实测历史记录资料的随机或系统误差,参数误差和模型结构误差,讨论了各类误差的分析与计算方法,为模型的发展和成长提供了依据。

解集GCM输出模拟黄土塬区土壤水分平衡的潜在变化

壤水分平衡对气候变化存在着响应,在全球变化的大背景下,研究土壤水分的可能变化是气候变化影响评估中非常重要的一项内容。目标是利用经验统计方法解集GCM网格逐月的降水和温度数据,并使用建立的气候变化情景作为WEPP的输入文件评估黄土高原王东沟流域2010～2039年土壤水分平衡(土壤水分、蒸发、渗漏和蒸腾)的可能变化。结果表明,3种情景预测2010～2039年王东沟流域年均降水可能增长1.8%～17.5%,年最高温度和最低温度分别可能增长0.5～0.9℃和2.0～2.3℃。作物蒸腾变化主要在4～6月份,土壤蒸发变化主要发生在7～9月份;作物蒸腾年均变化-5%～19%,土壤水分年均变化-4%～4%,土壤蒸发年均变化-7%～7%,均为A2a减少,B2a和GGal增大;A2a的土壤水分渗漏增长最大,GGal次之,B2a基本不变。这些结果表明气候变化及其导致的作物生长变化对土壤水分平衡存在重要的影响。

Impact of monsoonal climatic change on Holocene overbank flooding along Sushui River；middle reach of the Yellow River；China

IEECAS SKLLQG

Experimental Study on the Thermal Argon Plasma Generation and Jet Length Change Characteristics at Atmospheric Pressure

The generation, jet length and flow-regime change characteristics of argon plasma issuing into ambient air have been experimentally examined. Different torch structures have been used in the tests. Laminar plasma jets can be generated within a rather wide range of working-gas flow rates, and an unsteady transitional flow state exists between the laminar and turbulent flow regimes. The high-temperature region length of the laminar plasma jet can be over an order longer than that of the turbulent plasma jet and increases with increasing argon flow rate or arc current, while the jet length of the turbulent plasma is less influenced by the generating parameters. The flow field of the plasma jet has very high radial gradients of plasma parameters, and a Reynolds number alone calculated in the ordinary manner may not adequately serve as a criterion for transition. The laminar plasma jet can have a higher velocity than that of an unsteady or turbulent jet. The long laminar plasma jet has good stiffness to withstand the impact of laterally injected cold gas and particulate matter. It could be used as a rather ideal object for fundamental studies and be applied to novel materials processing due to its attractive stable and adjustable properties.

Impact of organic contamination on laser-induced damage threshold of high reflectance coatings in vacuum

The influence of organic contamination in vacuum on the laser-induced damage threshold (LIDT) of coatings is studied. TiO2/SiO2 dielectric mirrors with high reflection at 1064 nm are deposited by the electron beam evaporation method. The LIDTs of mirrors are measured in vacuum and atmosphere, respectively. It is found that the contamination in vacuum is easily attracted to optical surfaces because of the low pressure and becomes the source of damage. LIDTs of mirrors have a little change in vacuum compared with in atmosphere when the organic contamination is wiped off. The results indicate that organic contamination is a significant reason to decrease the LIDT. N-2 molecules in vacuum can reduce the influence of the organic contaminations and prtectect high reflectance coatings. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fragmentation effects on diversity of wasp community and its impact on fig/fig wasp interaction in Ficus racemosa L.

Habitat fragmentation usually results in alteration of species composition or biological communities. However, little is known about the effect of habitat fragmentation on the fig/fig wasp system. In this study, we compared the structure of a fig wasp community and the interaction between figs and fig wasps of Ficus racemosa L. in a primary forest, a locally fragmented forest and a highly fragmented forest. Our results show that, in the highly fragmented forest, the proportion of pollinator wasps is lower and the proportion of non-pollinator wasps is higher compared with the primary forest and locally fragmented forest. The proportion of fruits without pollinator wasps in mature fruits is also greatly increased in the highly fragmented forest. The proportion of galls in all female flowers increases in the highly fragmented forest, whereas the proportion of viable seeds does not change considerably. The disruption of groups of fig trees results in a decrease in pollinator wasps and even might result in the extinction of pollinator wasps in some extreme cases, which may transform the reciprocal interaction between figs and fig wasps into a parasite/host system. Such an effect may lead to the local extinction of this keystone plant resource of rain forests in the process of evolution, and thereby, may change the structure and function of the tropical rain forest.

The impact of imperfect symmetry on band edge modes of a two-dimensional photonic crystal with square lattice

A theoretical analysis has been performed by means of the plane-wave expansion method to examine the dispersion properties of photons at high symmetry points of an InP based two-dimensional photonic crystal with square lattice. The Q factors are compared qualitatively. The mechanism of surface-emitting is due to the photon manipulation by periodic dielectric materials in terms of Bragg diffraction. A surface-emitting photonic crystal resonator is designed based on the phenomenon of slow light. Photonic crystal slabs with different unit cells are utilized in the simulation. The results indicate that the change of the air holes can affect the polarization property of the modes. So we can find a way to improve the polarization by reducing the symmetry of the structure.

Landscape change detection of the newly created wetland in Yellow River Delta

Four models are employed in the landscape change detection of the newly created wetland. The models include ones for patch connectivity. ecological diversity, human impact intensity and mean center of land cover. The landscape data of the newly created wetland in Yellow River Delta in 1984, 1991, and 1996 are produced from the unsupervised classification and the supervised classification on the basis of integrating Landsat TM images of the newly created wetland in the four seasons of the each year. The result from operating the models into the data shows that the newly created wetland landscape in Yellow River Delta had a great chance. The driving focus of the change are mainly from natural evolution of the newly created wetland and rapid population growth, especially non-peasant population growth in Yellow River Delta because a considerable amount of oil and gas fields have been found in the Yellow River Delta. For preventing the newly created wetland from more destruction and conserving benign Succession of the ecosystems in the newly created wetland, six measures are suggested on the basis of research results. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of arable land loss and its impact on rural sustainability in Southern Jiangsu Province of China

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in southern Jiangsu Province have consumed a huge amount of arable land. Through comparative analysis of land cover maps derived from TM images in 1990, 2000 and 2006, we identified the trend of arable land loss. It is found that most arable land is lost to urbanization and rural settlements development. Urban settlements, rural settlements, and industrial park-mine-transport land increased, respectively, by 87 997 ha (174.65%), 81 041 ha (104.52%), and 12 692 ha (397.99%) from 1990 to 2006. Most of the source (e.g., change from) land covers are rice paddy fields and dryland. These two covers contributed to newly urbanized areas by 37.12% and 73.52% during 1990-2000, and 46.39% and 38.86% during 2000-2006. However, the loss of arable land is weakly correlated with ecological service value, per capita net income of farmers, but positively with grain yield for some counties. Most areas in the study site have a low arable land depletion rate and a high potential for sustainable development. More attention should be directed at those counties that have a high depletion rate but a low potential for sustainable development. Rural settlements should be controlled and rationalized through legislative measures to achieve harmonious development between urban and rural areas, and sustainable development for rural areas with a minimal impact on the ecoenvironment. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.