模糊逻辑的采用软件开发工作量估算

软件估算是有半个世纪发展历史的计算机科学领域的一个巨大挑战，因为软件估算涉及到软件项目的成本和计划。开发人员需要能够获得基于他们自己的程序得到的包含了工作量估算的实践。软件成本估算主要估算开发软件系统所需的工作量、时间、人力资源等。一种有效的方式是在项目早期确定成本时估算工作量。软件成本主要依据项目的需求规格说明书来确定。目前，实施可靠、准确的成本估算仍是软件工程领域的一个挑战。 在项目早期阶段，许多项目属性尚未确定。此时的软件估算通常是不准确的，估算 的准确程度取决于用于估算的可靠且可用的信息的数量。在后续的项目分析和设计阶段，对项目的了解更加深入，估算不确定性减少，估算准确性提高。大部分估算模型未考虑这种不确定性，只是得到了确定的估算结果。这些模型需要改进，以得到估计范围和估算结果的发生概率。 新的方法（如：模糊逻辑）可能提供了软件工作量估算的替代方案。软件开发总是可以用一组具有一定程度模糊性的参数来表征。这就需要在模型中引入一定程度的不确定性，以使模型更接近实际。模糊逻辑在这方面很合适。应用模糊逻辑可以解决目前工作量估算模型存在的许多问题。而且，模糊逻辑已经与算法的和非算法的工作量估算模型结合，用于解决固有不确定性问题。 本文提出一种基于模糊逻辑规模的软件开发工作量估算方法。软件规模不是一个单个数字，可以看作是一个三角模糊数(triangular fuzzy number, TFN)。应用本文方法，可以通过改变约束条件对任意常数中的工作量估算结果进行优化。基于对本文方法中模糊权重的平均方差解释%(Variance Accounted For, VAF%) ， 提出了一种最优化算法。应用COCOMO 公开数据集进行了验证实验。与实际工作量估算的比较结果表明，基于偏差系数，本文提出的模型提供了较好的估算结果。 最后，提出了一种改进的基于模糊案例的推理(Fuzzy Case-Based Reasoning , FCBR)方法，该方法集成了agent 技术，可以从多个组织的分布式数据库中找到相似项目。基于该方法，可以从分布式预定义的项目成本数据库中收集软件成本数据，进而建立软件成本估算模型。该模型应用FCBR 方法，在不同软件组织的历史软件项目度量数据中找到类似项目。

A Study of Composite Beam with Shape Memory Alloy Arbitrarily Embedded under Thermal and Mechanical Loadings

The constitutive relations and kinematic assumptions on the composite beam with shape memory alloy (SMA) arbitrarily embedded are discussed and the results related to the different kinematic assumptions are compared. As the approach of mechanics of materials is to study the composite beam with the SMA layer embedded, the kinematic assumption is vital. In this paper, we systematically study the kinematic assumptions influence on the composite beam deflection and vibration characteristics. Based on the different kinematic assumptions, the equations of equilibrium/motion are different. Here three widely used kinematic assumptions are presented and the equations of equilibrium/motion are derived accordingly. As the three kinematic assumptions change from the simple to the complex one, the governing equations evolve from the linear to the nonlinear ones. For the nonlinear equations of equilibrium, the numerical solution is obtained by using Galerkin discretization method and Newton-Rhapson iteration method. The analysis on the numerical difficulty of using Galerkin method on the post-buckling analysis is presented. For the post-buckling analysis, finite element method is applied to avoid the difficulty due to the singularity occurred in Galerkin method. The natural frequencies of the composite beam with the nonlinear governing equation, which are obtained by directly linearizing the equations and locally linearizing the equations around each equilibrium, are compared. The influences of the SMA layer thickness and the shift from neutral axis on the deflection, buckling and post-buckling are also investigated. This paper presents a very general way to treat thermo-mechanical properties of the composite beam with SMA arbitrarily embedded. The governing equations for each kinematic assumption consist of a third order and a fourth order differential equation with a total of seven boundary conditions. Some previous studies on the SMA layer either ignore the thermal constraint effect or implicitly assume that the SMA is symmetrically embedded. The composite beam with the SMA layer asymmetrically embedded is studied here, in which symmetric embedding is a special case. Based on the different kinematic assumptions, the results are different depending on the deflection magnitude because of the nonlinear hardening effect due to the (large) deflection. And this difference is systematically compared for both the deflection and the natural frequencies. For simple kinematic assumption, the governing equations are linear and analytical solution is available. But as the deflection increases to the large magnitude, the simple kinematic assumption does not really reflect the structural deflection and the complex one must be used. During the systematic comparison of computational results due to the different kinematic assumptions, the application range of the simple kinematic assumption is also evaluated. Besides the equilibrium study of the composite laminate with SMA embedded, the buckling, post-buckling, free and forced vibrations of the composite beam with the different configurations are also studied and compared.

Numerical simulation of principal tidal constituents in the South China Sea, Gulf of Tonkin and Gulf of Thailand

The principal tidal constituents M-2, S-2, K-1 and O-1 in the South China Sea, Gulf of Tonkin and Gulf of Thailand are simulated simultaneously using the numerical scheme of Kwok et al. (1995 Proceedings of the 1st Asian Computational Fluid Dynamics Conference, pp. 16-19). The average differences between the computed and observed harmonic constants are mostly within 5 cm and 10 degrees for amplitudes and phase-lags, respectively. The simulated tidal regimes in the present model are believed to be more accurate than the previous numerical results. Our studies confirm that a clockwise rotating M-2 amphidromic system lies in the southeast of the Gulf of Thailand and an S-2 amphidromic system at the near-shore area of the northeast South China Sea. The linear tidal energy equation developed by Garrett (1975 Deep-Sea Research 22, 23-35) is generalized to the nonlinear case. Based on the numerical results, the energy budgets in the South China Sea and its subareas, namely the Taiwan Strait, the Gulf of Tonkin, the Gulf of Thailand and the remaining area are investigated. The tidal motion in the Taiwan Strait is maintained mainly by the energy fluxes from the East China Sea for both semidiurnal and diurnal species and partially from the Luzon Strait for semidiurnal species. For the other parts of the South China Sea, the tidal motion is mainly maintained by the energy fluxes through the Luzon Strait. The energy inputs from the tide-generating force are negative for semidiurnal species and positive for diurnal species. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

一个CIMS环境下的基于范例的船体装配CAPP系统

本文介绍了一个 CIMS环境下的基于范例的船体装配 CAPP系统 .包括 :CAPP系统在渤海造船厂 CIMS工程中的地位 ,基于范例的工艺规划 (范例的表达 ,范例的索引、存储、检索和适应 ) ,工艺定额和材料定额制定 ,分系统之间的信息集成 .系统采用 Power Builder和 SQL Server数据库中的 SQL语言编写 .目前 ,船体装配 CAPP系统已经在渤海造船厂的微机上连网运行

黄骅坳陷马东地区沙河街组重力流水道储层评价及剩余油研究

In this paper, taking Madong district of Huanghua depression as a case, based on the theory of sequence stratigraphy, sedimentology, reservoir geology and geophysics, according to core analysis, seismic attribute analysis, logging constrained inversion, multi-data correlation of strata, reservoir modeling, etc. the lower and middle first member of Shahejie formation of the study area was forecasted and evaluated. As a result, a number of reservoir prediction and remaining oil distribution methods suitable to oil exploitation of gravity flow channel reservoir are presented. Scientific foundation is provided to the next adjustment of development program and exploitation of the remaining oil. According to high resolution sequence stratigraphy theory, precise stratigraphic framework was founded, the facies types and facies distribution were studied under the control of stratigraphic framework, the technologies of seismic attribute abstraction and logging constrained inversion. Result shows that gravity flow channel, as the main facies, developed in the rising period of base-level cycle, and it was formed during the phase of contemporaneous fault growth. As the channel extends, channel width was gradually widened but thickness thined. The single channels were in possession of a great variety of integrated modes, such as isolated, branching off, merging and paralleling, forming a kind of sand-mud interblending complex sedimentary units. Reservoir quality differs greatly in vertical and horizontal direction, and sedimentary microfacies is main controlling factor of the reservoir quality. In major channel, deposition thickness is great, and petrophysical property is well. While in marginal channel, reservoir is thinner, and petrophysical property is unfavorable. Structure and reservoir quality are main factors which control the oil and gas distribution in the study area. On the basis of the research about the reservoir quality, internal, planar and 3-D reservoir heterogeneities are characterized, and the reservoir quality was sorted rationally. At last, based on the research of reservoir numerical simulation of key well group, combined with reservoir performance analysis and geological analysis above, remaining oil distribution patterns controlled by internal rhythm of gravity flow channel were set up. Through this research, a facies-restrained reservoir prediction method integrating multi-information was presented, and potential orientation of remaining oil distribution in gravity flow channel reservoir is clarified.

Development of EST-SSRs by an efficient FIASCO-based strategy: A case study in rare minnow (Gobiocyrpis rarus)

Type I markers are useful for comparative mapping and other genetic analyses, but relatively difficult to develop. In the present study a microsatellite (SSR)-enriched cDNA library was constructed for the first time using the fast isolation by AFLP of sequences containing repeats (FIASCO) method in a small fish, Chinese rare minnow (Gobiocypris rarus). A total of 97.4% of the expressed sequence tags (ESTs) contained targeted CA-repeats, in which 29 unique EST-SSRs were identified. Ten out of the 28 loci for which primer pairs were designed were polymorphic with alleles ranging from three to seven (mean 4.50). Some of these EST-SSRs can be amplified in other species. These results proved that cDNA-FIASCO is an efficient way to isolate novel EST-SSRs in a fish.

Reproductive seasonality and maturity of male Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis in captivity: A case study based on the hormone evidence

To provide hormone evidence on reproductive seasonality and maturity of the Yangtze finless porpoise, the authors monitored the monthly variations of serum reproductive hormones of a male Yangtze finless porpoise in captivity via radioimmunoassay from 1997 to 2003. It was demonstrated that the immature animal had a serum T level of 28-101ngdL -1 (6552ngdL -1 ), reached puberty with the serum T concentration ranging between 250 and 590ngdL -1 (390130ngdL -1 ), and attained reproductive maturity when the serum T level went beyond 1120180ngdL -1 in the breeding season. The body length growth of the animal showed a pattern similar to the serum T variations during its adolescent period from the age of 4 to 6 years. Moreover, the serum T concentration of the male porpoise exhibited significant seasonal variations, indicating that its breeding season may start as early as March and end as late as September.

Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration is affected by prevailing climatic conditions and soil organic carbon content: A trans-China based case study

National Natural Science Foundation of China [30590381]; Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [KZCX2YW-432]; International Partnership Project

Safety of tetanus toxoid in pregnant women: A hospital-based case-control study of congenital anomalies

Reported are the results of the Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC), a hospital-based case-control study of 34 293 malformed and 34 477 matched nonmalformed newborn controls. No statistical differences were found between the malformed and control groups, exposed or not exposed to tetanus toroid.