Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

A generalized wave action conservative equation for the dissipative dynamical system in the nearshore region

To describe the various complex mechanisms of the dissipative dynamical system between waves, currents, and bottoms in the nearshore region that induce typically the wave motion on large-scale variation of ambient currents, a generalized wave action equation for the dissipative dynamical system in the nearshore region is developed by using the mean-flow equations based on the Navier-Stokes equations of viscous fluid, thus raising two new concepts: the vertical velocity wave action and the dissipative wave action, extending the classical concept, wave action, from the ideal averaged flow conservative system into the real averaged flow dissipative system (that is, the generalized conservative system). It will have more applications.