Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Atomistic Simulation On Size-Dependent Yield Strength And Defects Evolution Of Metal Nanowires

A simple derivation based on continuum mechanics is given, which shows the surface stress is critical for yield strength at ultra-small scales. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with modified embedded atom method (MEAM) are employed to investigate the mechanical behaviors of single-crystalline metal nanowires under tensile loading. The calculated yield strengths increasing with the decrease of the cross-sectional area of the nanowires are in accordance with the theoretical prediction. Reorientation induced by stacking faults is observed at the nanowire edge. In addition. the mechanism of yielding is discussed in details based on the snapshots of defects evolution. The nanowires in different crystallographic orientations behave differently in stretching deformation. This study on the plastic properties of metal nanowires will be helpful to further understanding of the mechanical properties of nanomaterials. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Shape effects on the yield stress and deformation of silicon nanowires: A molecular dynamics simulation

The tension and compression of single-crystalline silicon nanowires (SiNWs) with different cross-sectional shapes are studied systematically using molecular dynamics simulation. The shape effects on the yield stresses are characterized. For the same surface to volume ratio, the circular cross-sectional SiNWs are stronger than the square cross-sectional ones under tensile loading, but reverse happens in compressive loading. With the atoms colored by least-squares atomic local shear strain, the deformation processes reveal that the failure modes of incipient yielding are dependent on the loading directions. The SiNWs under tensile loading slip in {111} surfaces, while the compressive loading leads the SiNWs to slip in the {110} surfaces. The present results are expected to contribute to the design of the silicon devices in nanosystems.

Modeling on Runoff and Sediment Yield in Small Watersheds

The prediction and estimate of water and soil loss is fundamental important for understanding the effect of the spatial heterogeneity of underlying surfaces and preventing ecological environment deterioration. In this paper, a dynamic model of runoff and sediment yield in small watersheds is established. The proposed model includes three components: runoff generation caused by rainfall, soil erosion on hillslopes by overland flow, and runoff concentration and sediment transport on watersheds. Applying the proposed model, the runoff and sediment yield processes in a typical catchment on the loess plateau was estimated, which exhibited a good agreement between predicted results and observation.

Studies of ion energy and yield from argon clusters heated by intense femtosecond laser pulses

Using time-of-flight spectrometry, the interaction of intense femtosecond laser pulses with argon clusters has been studied by measuring the energy and yield of emitted ions. With two different supersonic nozzles, the dependence of average ion energy (E) over bar on cluster size (n) over bar in a large range of (n) over bar approximate to 3 x 10(3) similar to 3 x 10(6) has been measured. The experimental results indicate that when the cluster size (n) over bar <= 3 x 10(5), the average ion energy (E) over bar proportional to (n) over bar (0.5), Coulomb explosion is the dominant expansion mechanism. Beyond this size, the average ion energy gets saturated gradually, the clusters exhibit a mixed Coulomb-hydrodynamic expansion behavior. We also find that with the increasing gas backing pressure, there is a maximum ion yield, the ion yield decreases as the gas backing pressure is further increased.

Effect of laser spot size on fusion neutron yield in laser-deuterium cluster interactions

The effect of the laser spot size on the neutron yield of table-top nuclear fusion from explosions of a femtosecond intense laser pulse heated deuterium clusters is investigated by using a simplified model, in which the cluster size distribution and the energy attenuation of the laser as it propagates through the cluster jet are taken into account. It has been found that there exists a proper laser spot size for the maximum fusion neutron yield for a given laser pulse and a specific deuterium gas cluster jet. The proper spot size, which is dependent on the laser parameters and the cluster jet parameters, has been calculated and compared with the available experimental data. A reasonable agreement between the calculated results and the published experimental results is found.

Two overrun phenomena and their effects on fusion yield in the Coulomb explosion of heteronuclear clusters

Two overrun effects in the Coulomb explosion dynamics of heteronuclear clusters have been investigated theoretically by the use of a simplified electrostatic model. When the charge-to-mass ratio of light ions is higher than that of heavy ions, the light ions can overtake the heavy ions inside the cluster and acquire a higher kinetic energy. Further, if the charge density of the heavy ions is twice as high as that of the light ions, i.e. a proposed competitive parameter xi = rho BqB/rho AqA > 2, the inner light ions can overtake those light ions on the surface of the cluster and form a shock shell during the explosion, which might drive the intracluster collision and fusion of the light ions. Different regimes of nuclear fusion are discussed and the corresponding neutron yields are estimated. Our analysis indicates that the probability of intracluster fusion is quite low even if deuterated heteronuclear clusters such as (DI)(n) with large size and high competitive parameter are employed. However, heteronuclear clusters are still a better candidate compared with homonuclear clusters for enhancing the total intercluster fusion yield because both a higher energy region and a higher proportion of deuterons distributing in the energy region can be created in the deuterated heteronuclear clusters.

Effects of annealing on the color, absorption spectra, and light yield of Ce : YAlO3 single crystal grown by the temperature gradient technique

YAlO3 single crystal doped with Ce3+ at concentration 1% was grown by the temperature gradient technique. The as-grown crystal was pink. After H-2 annealing or air annealing at 1400degreesC for 20 h, the crystal was turned into colorless. We concluded there were two kinds of color centers in the as-grown crystal. One is F+ center attributed to absorption band peaking at about 530 nm, the other is O- center attributed to absorption band peaking at about 390 nm. This color centers model can be applied in explaining the experiment phenomena including the color changes, the absorption spectra changes, and the light yield changes of Ce:YAP crystals before and after annealing. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

High quantum fluorescence yield of Er3+ at 1.5 mu m in an Yb3+, Ce3+-codoped CaF2 crystal

For the first time, a quaternary doping system of Er3+, Yb3+, Ce3+, Na+:CaF2 single crystal was demonstrated to have high fluorescence yield in the eye-safe 1.5 mu m region under 980 nm laser diode pumping, with relatively broad and flat gain curves. A simplified model was established to illustrate the effect of Ce3+ on the branching ratio for the Er3+4I11/2 -> I-4(13/2) transition. With 0.2-at.% Er3+ and 2.0-at.% Ce3+ in the quaternary-doped CaF2 crystal, the branching ratio was estimated to be improved more than 40 times by the deactivating effect of Ce3+ on the Er3+ 4I11/2 level. The quaternary-doped CaF2, system shows great potential to achieve high laser performance in the 1.5 mu m region. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.