Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Comparison Between Lurr And State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes In Southern California Since 1980

There are seven strong earthquakes with M >= 6.5 that occurred in southern California during the period from 1980 to 2005. In this paper, these earthquakes were studied by the LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) method and the State Vector method to detect if there are anomalies before them. The results show that LURR anomalies appeared before 6 earthquakes out of 7 and State Vector anomalies appeared before all 7 earthquakes. For the LURR method, the interval between maximum LURR value and the forthcoming earthquake is 1 to 19 months, and the dominant mean interval is about 10.7 months. For the State Vector method, the interval between the maximum modulus of increment State Vector and the forthcoming earthquake is from 3 to 27 months, but the dominant mean interval between the occurrence time of the maximum State Vector anomaly and the forthcoming earthquake is about 4.7 months. The results also show that the minimum valid space window scale for the LURR and the State Vector is a circle with a radius of 100 km and a square of 3 degrees 3 degrees, respectively. These results imply that the State Vector method is more effective for short-term earthquake prediction than the LURR method, however the LURR method is more effective for location prediction than the State Vector method.

Rare earth metal alkyl complexes bearing N,O,P multidentate ligands: Synthesis, characterization and catalysis on the ring-opening polymerization of L-lactide

Alkane elimination reactions of rare earth metal tris(alkyl)s, Ln(CH2SiMe3)3(THF)2 (Ln = Y, Lu) with the multidentate ligands HL1-4, afforded a series of new rare earth metal complexes. Yttrium, complex I supported by flexible amino-intino phenoxide ligand HL1 was isolated as homoleptic product. In the reaction of rigid phosphino-imino phenoxide ligand HL 2 with equintolar Ln(CH2SiMe3)3(THF)2, HL 2 was deprotonated by the metal alkyl and its imino C=N group was reduced to C-N by intramolecular alkylation, generating THF-solvated mono-alkyl complexes (2a: Ln = Y; 2b: Ln = Lu). The di-ligand chelated yttriurn complex 3 without alkyl moiety was isolated when the molar ratio of HL 2 to Y(CH,SiMe3)3(THF)2 increased to 2: 1. Reaction of steric phosphino beta-ketoiminato ligand HL 3 with equimolar Ln(CH2SiMe3)3(THF)2 afforded di-ligated mono-alkyl complexes (4a: Ln = Y; 4b: Ln = Lu) without occurrence of intramolecular alkylation or formation of homoleptic product. Treatment of tetradentate methoxy-amino phenol HL 4 with Y(CH2SiMe3)3(THF)2 afforded a monomeric yttrium bis-alkyl complex of THF-free. The resultant complexes were characterized by IR, NMR spectrum and X-ray diffraction analyses.All alkyl complexes exhibited high activity toward the ring-opening polymerization Of L-lactide to give isotactic polylactide with controllable molecular weight and narrow to moderate polydispersity.

Synthesis, structure and norbornene polymerization behavior of nickel complexes bearing two beta-ketoiminato chelate ligands

A series of nickel(II) complexes bearing two nonsymmetric bidentate beta-ketoiminato chelate ligands have been prepared, and the structures of complexes [(2,6-Me2C6H3)NC(CH3)C(H)C(Ph)O](2)Ni (4a) and [(2,6-Me2C6H3)NC(CH3)C(H)C(CF3)O](2)Ni (4c) have been confirmed by X-ray crystallographic analysis. These nickel(II) complexes were investigated as catalysts for the vinylic polymerization of norbornene. Using modified methylaluminoxane (MMAO) as a cocatalyst, these complexes display very high activities and produce high molecular weight polymers. Catalytic activity of up to 1.16 x 10(4) kg/mol(Ni) .h and the viscosity-average molecular 9 weight of polymer of up to 870 kg/mol were observed. Catalyst activity, polymer yield, and polymer molecular weight could be controlled over a wide range by the variation of the reaction parameters such as Al/Ni molar ratio, norbornene/catalyst molar ratio, monomer concentration, polymerization reaction temperature and time.

New neutral nickel(II) complexes bearing pyrrole-imine chelate ligands: synthesis, structure and norbornene polymerization behavior

New neutral nickel(II) complexes bearing nonsymmetric bidentate pyrrole-imine chelate ligands (4a-d), [2-(ArNCH)C4H3N]Ni(PPh3)Ph [Ar=2,6-diisopropylphenyl (a), 2-methyl-6-isopropylphenyl (b), 2,6-diethylphenyl (c), 2-tert-butylphenyl (d)], have been prepared in good yields from the sodium salts of the corresponding ligands and trans-Ni(PPh3)(2)(Ph)Cl, and the structure of complex 4a has been confirmed by X-ray crystallographic analysis. These neutral Ni(II) complexes were investigated as catalysts for the vinylic polymerization of norbornene. Using modified methylaluminoxane (MMAO) as a cocatalyst, these complexes display very high activities and produce great mass polymers. Catalyst activity of up to 4.2 x 10(7) g (mol Ni h)(-1) and the viscosity-average molecular weight of polymer of up to 9.2 x 10(5) g mol(-1) were observed. Catalyst activity, polymer yield, and polymer molecular weight can be controlled over a wide range by the variation of reaction parameters such as Al-Ni ratio, norbornene-catalyst ratio, monomer concentration, polymerization reaction temperature and time.

Synthesis and crystal structure of chiral bis(cyclopentadienyl) samarium Schiff base complexes bearing intramolecular C-C bond formation and hydrogen transfer

SmCl3, reacted with CpNa (Cp = Cyclopentadienyl) in the ratio of 1:3 in THF, which then was reacted with (S)-(+)-N-1-(phenylethyl) salicylideneamine/toluene to yield the title complex, [GRAPHICS] The X-ray crystal structure determination of the title complex reveals that 1 is a dimer with intramolecular C-C bond formation and hydrogen transfer, which leads to the configuration turnover of the carbon atom at the benzyl position of the ligand, while those of the newly formed asymmetric centers may have either Ii or S type configurations. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Effect of Cold Rolling Ratio and Heating Rate of Batch Annealing on Textures of Micro-Carbon Steel Sheet

在四辊冷轧试验机和Gleeble-1500试验机上进行了热轧微碳钢板的冷轧和退火试验。用D/max-RC衍射仪测量了试样的,/”层织构,并用Roe软件进行了ODF分析。研究表明,所研究的热轧微碳深冲板压下率约为75%,退火升温速度为20-40℃/h时,试样为{111}织构特征；压下率较大(80%)时,退火织构为较弱的{111}组分。无论{111}织构还是非{111}织构都是在形核阶段开始形成,在晶粒长大优先长大,受到定向形核和选择生长双重机制的作用。

Influence of the thickness ratio of air layer to liquid layer on the onset of Benard-Marangoni convection

An experimental investigation of the onset of Benard-Marangoni convection has been performed in a liquid layer of rectangular configuration. The critical temperature difference was measured via the detections of both temperature field pattern (IR-imaging) on the free surface and fluid convection (PIV) in the liquid layer. The critical temperature difference or the critical Marangoni number was given. The experiments were performed for a fixed depth of air layer and a changeable depth of the liquid layer, and then the influence of the thickness ratio of the air layer to liquid layer on the Marangoni instability was studied.

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Influences of the Fish-Mouth Project and the Groins on the Flow and Sediment Ratio of the Yangtze River Waterway

A depth-integrated two-dimensional numerical model of current, salinity and sediment transport was proposed and calibrated by the observation data in the Yangtze River Estuary. It was then applied to investigate the flow and sediment ratio of the navigati

High Aspect Ratio (L/D) Riser Viv Prediction Using Wake Oscillator Model

A two-dimensional (2-D) vortex-induced vibration (VIV) prediction model for high aspect ratio (LID) riser subjected to uniform and sheared flow is studied in this paper. The nonlinear structure equations are considered. The near wake dynamics describing the fluctuating nature of vortex shedding is modeled using classical van der Pol equation. A new approach was applied to calibrate the empirical parameters in the wake oscillator model. Compared the predicted results with the experimental data and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) results. Good agreements are observed. It can be concluded that the present model can be used as simple computational tool in predicting some aspects of VIV of long flexible structures. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect Of A Negative Poisson Ratio In The Tension Of Ceramics

The effect of a negative Poisson ratio is experimentally revealed in the tension deformation of a natural layered ceramic. This effect can increase the volume strain energy per unit volume by 1100% and, simultaneously, decrease the deformation strain energy per unit volume by about 44%, so that it effectively enhances the deformation capacity by about 1 order of magnitude in the tension of the material. The present study also shows that the physical mechanisms producing the effect are attributed to the climbing on one another of the nanostructures in the natural material, which provides a guide to the design of synthetic toughening composites.

Reconsideration On The Role Of The Specific Heat Ratio In Arrhenius Law Applications

Arrhenius law implicates that only those molecules which possess the internal energy greater than the activation energy E-a can react. However, the internal energy will not be proportional to the gas temperature if the specific heat ratio gamma and the gas constant R vary during chemical reaction processes. The varying gamma may affect significantly the chemical reaction rate calculated with the Arrhenius law under the constant gamma assumption, which has been widely accepted in detonation and combustion simulations for many years. In this paper, the roles of variable gamma and R in Arrhenius law applications are reconsidered, and their effects on the chemical reaction rate are demonstrated by simulating one-dimensional C-J and two-dimensional cellular detonations. A new overall one-step detonation model with variable gamma and R is proposed to improve the Arrhenius law. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this improved Arrhenius law works well in predicting detonation phenomena with the numerical results being in good agreement with experimental data.

The Newest Developments Of Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr)

The Load Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It is inspiring that its predictions using LURR have been improving. Since 2004 we have made a major breakthrough in intermediate-term earthquake forecasting of the strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using LURR and successfully predicted the Pakistan earthquake with magnitude M 7.6 on October 8, 2005. The causes for improving the prediction in terms of LURR have been discussed in the present paper.