Statistical analysis of synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of fault zone disorder

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory, is applied to the large events from four synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of disorder in distribution of fault zone strength (Ben-Zion, 1996) They include models with uniform properties (U), a Parkfield-type asperity (A), fractal brittle properties (F), and multi-size-scale heterogeneities (M). The results show that the degree of regularity or predictability in the assumed fault properties, based on both the Akaike information criterion and simulations, follows the order U, F, A, and M, which is in good agreement with that obtained by pattern recognition techniques applied to the full set of synthetic data. Data simulated from the best fitting stress release models reproduce, both visually and in distributional terms, the main features of the original catalogs. The differences in character and the quality of prediction between the four cases are shown to be dependent on two main aspects: the parameter controlling the sensitivity to departures from the mean stress level and the frequency-magnitude distribution, which differs substantially between the four cases. In particular, it is shown that the predictability of the data is strongly affected by the form of frequency-magnitude distribution, being greatly reduced if a pure Gutenburg-Richter form is assumed to hold out to high magnitudes.

China's changing landscape during the 1990s: Large-scale land transformations estimated with satellite data

Land-cover changes in China are being powered by demand for food for its growing population and by the nation's transition from a largely rural society to one in which more than half of its people are expected to live in cities within two decades. Here we use an analysis of remotely sensed data gathered between 1990 and 2000, to map the magnitude and pattern of changes such as the conversion of grasslands and forests to croplands and the loss of croplands to urban expansion. With high-resolution ( 30 m) imagery from Landsat TM for the entire country, we show that between 1990 and 2000 the cropland area increased by 2.99 million hectares and urban areas increased by 0.82 million hectares. In northern China, large areas of woodlands, grasslands and wetlands were converted to croplands, while in southern China large areas of croplands were converted to urban areas. The land-cover products presented here give the Chinese government and international community, for the first time, an unambiguous understanding of the degree to which the nation's landscape is being altered. Documentation of these changes in a reliable and spatially explicit way forms the foundation for management of China's environment over the coming decades.

Effective elastic moduli of two-dimensional solids with multiple cracks

An accurate method which directly accounts for the interactions between different microcracks is used for analyzing the elastic problem of multiple cracks solids. The effective elastic moduli for randomly oriented cracks and parallel cracks are evaluated for the representative volume element (RVE) with microcracks in infinite media. The numerical results are compared with those from various micromechanics models and experimental data. These results show that the present method is simple and provides a direct and efficient approach to dealing with elastic solids containing multiple cracks.

Analysis of two-dimensional finite solids with microcracks

A general method is presented for solving the plane elasticity problem of finite plates with multiple microcracks. The method directly accounts for the interactions between different microcracks and the effect of outer boundary of a finite plate. Analysis is based on a superposition scheme and series expansions of the complex potentials. By using the traction-free conditions on each crack surface and resultant forces relations along outer boundary, a set of governing equations is formulated. The governing equations are solved numerically on the basis of a boundary collocation procedure. The effective Young's moduli for randomly oriented cracks and parallel cracks are evaluated for rectangular plates with microcracks. The numerical results are compared with those from various micromechanics models and experimental data. These results show that the present method provides a direct and efficient approach to deal with finite solids containing multiple microcracks.

Bayesian mixed models and divergence time estimation of Chinese cavefishes (Cyprinidae : Sinocyclocheilus)

The genus Sinocyclocheilus is distributed in Yun-Gui Plateau and its surrounding region only, within more than 10 cave species showing different degrees of degeneration of eyes and pigmentation with wonderful adaptations. To present, published morphological and molecular phylogenetic hypotheses of Sinocyclocheilus from prior works are very different and the relationships within the genus are still far from clear. We obtained the sequences of cytochrome b (cyt b) and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4) of 34 species within Sinocyclocheilus, which represent the most dense taxon sampling to date. We performed Bayesian mixed models analyses with this data set. Under this phylogenetic framework, we estimated the divergence times of recovered clades using different methods under relaxed molecular clock. Our phyloegentic results supported the monophyly of Sinocyclocheilus and showed that this genus could be subdivided into 6 major clades. In addition, an earlier finding demonstrating the polyphyletic of cave species and the most basal position of S. jii was corroborated. Relaxed divergence-time estimation suggested that Sinocyclocheilus originated at the late Miocene, about 11 million years ago (Ma), which is older than what have been assumed.