基于过程Agent及联合体投标的人力资源调度方法

随着软件产品规模的扩大和应用领域的扩展，对软件过程管理的要求也越来越高。在软件开发过程中，人力资源是最重要的一种资源，人力资源调度的优劣将直接影响软件开发过程的产品质量、成本和进度。因此，合理高效的人力资源调度方法和工具能够为软件企业在人力资源优化调度、项目进度安排等方面提供决策支持，进而提高软件企业的项目管理能力和人力资源利用效率。 传统的人力资源调度方法过度依赖于项目负责人的个人经验及主观判断，且所得到的调度结果具有较高的不稳定性和不可靠性。为了能够为软件项目管理人员在人力资源调度方面提供一个更为客观、有效的调度方法，本文提出了基于过程Agent及联合体投标的人力资源调度方法。与传统的人力资源调度方法不同，该方法充分考虑到人力资源的特殊性，以人为核心，按人力资源能力的差别将人力资源建模成不同的过程Agent，并引入市场经济中的联合体投标方法进行调度。 本文首先对人力资源、过程Agent、目标等进行了建模，引入了投标邀请、标书以及联合体等概念，并在此基础上提出了通过过程Agent间的协商而实现人力资源调度的模型。该模型将人力资源依据能力的不同划分为不同的过程Agent，过程Agent再依据各自的投标策略响应投标邀请——或进行投标，或发出新的投标邀请。最后，具有“项目经理”角色的过程Agent将对这些投标进行评审，并依据用户对软件产品质量、生产成本以及生产进度的偏好选择合适的标书，生成人力资源调度计划。 由于现实的软件开发活动中经常会出现人力资源不充足的情况，因此在很多情况下都无法得到一个完整的人力资源调度计划。本文前面提出的方法虽然能够在资源不充足的情况下得到一个部分的调度结果，但却不能给出资源缺乏的具体情况，以至于项目负责人无法判定是否需要招聘新的人员。基于此，本文在协商模型中引入了两个改进的协商策略——容差调度及虚拟资源调度。容差调度是指，当没有足够的资源而现有资源能够完成的任务离需求在一个可以“容忍”的范围内时，认为资源是充足的；虚拟资源调度是指，当资源不充足时，假定有足够数量的“虚拟的”资源可供调度。由于对人力资源及目标等的描述都存在一定的误差，因此容差调度可以在很大程度上提高人力资源调度的成功率；而虚拟资源调度将在调度结果中显示资源缺乏的信息，供项目负责人做出决策时参考。 最后根据该方法设计和开发了相应的人力资源调度系统，并进行了实验验证，证明了方法的有效性，可以为项目负责人进行项目管理时提供决策支持。

基于合同网协议交互投标的动态调度方法研究

柔性制造系统使生产加工路径有很多可选性,所以调度系统必须考虑机器调度问题。分配规则调度是一种最基本、最具影响力的动态调度方法。然而,分配规则调度方法很少考虑机器顺序选择。兼顾工件选择和机器选择两方面,本文运用交互投标过程,构建基于合同网协议调度的协商规则。研究作业车间动态调度问题,提出并构建了5种合同网规则调度方法。通过实验分析结果表明,基于合同网交互投标模式的规则调度能够大大改善调度系统性能,提高设备的利用率和设备负荷平衡指标。

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.