Prediction and elucidation of the population dynamics of Microcystis spp. in Lake Dianchi (China) by means of artificial neural networks

Lake Dianchi is a shallow and turbid lake, located in Southwest China. Since 1985, Lake Dianchi has experienced severe cyanabacterial blooms (dominated by Microcystis spp.). In extreme cases, the algal cell densities have exceeded three billion cells per liter. To predict and elucidate the population dynamics ofMicrocystis spp. in Lake Dianchi, a neural network based model was developed. The correlation coefficient (R 2) between the predicted algal concentrations by the model and the observed values was 0.911. Sensitivity analysis was performed to clarify the algal dynamics to the changes of environmental factors. The results of a sensitivity analysis of the neural network model suggested that small increases in pH could cause significantly reduced algal abundance. Further investigations on raw data showed that the response of Microcystis spp. concentration to pH increase was dependent on algal biomass and pH level. When Microcystis spp. population and pH were moderate or low, the response of Microcystis spp. population would be more likely to be positive in Lake Dianchi; contrarily, Microcystis spp. population in Lake Dianchi would be more likely to show negative response to pH increase when Microcystis spp. population and pH were high. The paper concluded that the extremely high concentration of algal population and high pH could explain the distinctive response of Microcystis spp. population to +1 SD (standard deviation) pH increase in Lake Dianchi. And the paper also elucidated the algal dynamics to changes of other environmental factors. One SD increase of water temperature (WT) had strongest positive relationship with Microcystis spp. biomass. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) had strong positive effect on Microcystis spp. abundance while total nitrogen (TN), biological oxygen demand in five days (BOD5), and dissolved oxygen had only weak relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration. And transparency (Tr) had moderate positive relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration.

Spatial variations of size-fractionated chlorophyll, cyanobacteria and heterotrophic bacteria in the Central and Western Pacific

Geographic and vertical variations of size-fractionated (0.2-1 mu m, 1-10 mu m, and >10 mu m) Chlorophyll a (Chl.a) concentration, cyanobacteria abundance and heterotrophic bacteria abundance were investigated at 13 stations from 4 degrees S, 160 degrees W to 30 degrees N, 140 degrees E in November 1993. The results indicated a geographic distribution pattern of these parameters with instances of high values occurring in the equatorial region and offshore areas, and with instance of low values occurring in the oligotrophic regions where nutrients were almost undetectable. Cyanobacteria showed the highest geographic variation (ranging from 27x10(3) to 16,582x10(3) cell l(-1)), followed by Chl.a (ranging from 0.048 to 0.178 mu g l(-1)), and heterotrophic bacteria (ranging from 2.84x10(3) to 6.50 x 10(5) cell l(-1)). Positive correlations were observed between nutrients and Chl.a abundance. Correspondences of cyanobacteria and heterotrophic bacteria abundances to nutrients were less significant than that of Chl.a. The total Chl.a was accounted for 1.0-30.9%, 35.9-53.7%, and 28.1-57.3% by the >10 mu m, 1-10 mu m and 0.2-1 mu m fractions respectively. Correlation between size-fractionated Chl.a and nutrients suggest that the larger the cell size, the more nutrient-dependent growth and production of the organism. The ratio of pheophytin to chlorophyll implys that more than half of the > 10 mu m and about one third of the 1-10 mu m pigment-containing particles in the oligotrophic region were non-living fragments, while most of the 1-10 mu m fraction was living cells. In the depth profiles, cyanobacteria were distributed mainly in the surface layer, whereas heterotrophic bacteria were abundant from surface to below the euphotic zone. Chl.a peaked at the surface layer (0-20 m) in the equatorial area and at the nitracline (75-100 m) in the oligotrophic regions. Cyanobacteria were not the principle component of the picoplankton. The carbon biomass ratio of heterotroph to phytoplankton was greater than 1 in the eutrophic area and lower than 1 in oligotrophic waters.