Variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool and its relation to the dipole in the tropical Indian Ocean

Based on the monthly average SST and 850 hPa monthly average wind data, the seasonal, interannual and long-term variations in the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIWP) and its relationship to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and its response to the wind over the Indian Ocean are analyzed in this study. The results show that the distribution range, boundary and area of the EIWP exhibited obviously seasonal and interannual variations associated with the ENSO cycles. Further analysis suggests that the EIWP had obvious long-term trend in its bound edge and area, which indicated the EIWP migrated westwards by about 14 longitudes for its west edge, southwards by about 5 latitudes for its south edge and increased by 3.52x10(6) km(2) for its area, respectively, from 1950 to 2002. The correlation and composite analyses show that the anomalous westward and northward displacements of the EIWP caused by the easterly wind anomaly and the southerly wind anomaly over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean played an important and direct role in the formation of the IOD.

An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

In the present paper, correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955-1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers, implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970, the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area (1A degrees x1A degrees) for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3A degrees N/138A degrees E. The nearest TAO (TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array) mooring to the center is at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E, and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2A degrees N/137A degrees E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat content in the upper layer, if the correlation between the SCSSM onset and the heat content of the warm pool runs like that of after 1970. On the other hand, if the situation does like the one before 1970, the representative station is determined at 13A degrees S/74A degrees E with relatively poor correlation, meaning that the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean plays more important role in the SCSSM onset than the Indian Ocean.

The variation of upper ocean structure and paleoproductivity in the Kuroshio source region during the last 200 kyr

A core from the source region of the Kuroshio warm current (east of the Luzon Island) was analyzed using several proxies in order to study the variability of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Primary productivity (PP) variations were deduced from variations in the coccolith flora. Primary productivity was higher during glacial periods (the end of Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 3, some periods in MIS 2 and 6), and decreased during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS Se and probably MIS 5c-5d), with the lowest PP in MIS 5e. variations in the delta C-13 difference in benthic and bulk carbonate, thus in the vertical gradient of delta C-13 in dissolved inorganic carbon (Delta delta C-13(c). (wuellerstorfi-N. dutertrei) and Delta delta C-13(c.) (wuellerstorfi-coccolith)) Coincided With the PP Changes, showing that export productivity was low during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS 5e and Holocene) and high during glacial periods (MIS 6, probably MIS 5c-5d, late MIS 4 and late MIS 3). Comparison of foraminiferal carbonate dissolution indicators and PP changes reveals that nannofossil assemblage in core Ph05-5 is not sensitive to carbonate dissolution intensity. The depth of the thermocline (DOT) was estimated from planktonic forminiferal assemblages, and was relatively greater during interglacial periods (MIS 7, MIS 5e, probably MIS 5c and Holocene) than during glacials (middle MIS 6, probably MIS 5b and 5d, some periods in MIS 4, MIS 3 and MIS 2). Good coherence between the paleoproductivity records and the DOT suggests that the DOT changes could be the primary control factor in changes of paleoproductivity, and the glacial high productivity in the Kuroshio source region could be associated with a global increase of nutrient concentration in the intermediate waters that upwelled into the photic zone. The low CO2 values derived for intervals of high productivity and a relatively shallow DOT suggest that the changes in biological productivity and DOT in the equatorial Pacific could have modified atmospheric CO2 concentrations. High Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) during the warm MIS 5e in combination with intensified monsoonal rain fall could have resulted in a more intense stratification of the upper waters, resulting in low nutrient supply to the surface waters and a resulting decrease in productivity. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interannual horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean: assimilation versus TAO analysis

The interannual anomalies of horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean in an assimilation experiment are studied and compared with existing observational analyses. The assimilation builds upon a hindcast study that has produced a good simulation of the observed equatorial currents and optimizes the simulation of the Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) data. The comparison suggests that the assimilation has improved the simulation of the interannual horizontal heat advection of the surface mixed layer significantly. During periods of interrupted current measurements, the assimilation is shown to produce more meaningful anomalies of the heat advection than the interpolation of the observational data does. The assimilation also shows that the eddy heat flux due to the correlation between high-frequency current and SST variations, which is largely overlooked by the existing observational analyses, is important for the interannual SST balance over the equatorial Pacific. The interannual horizontal heat advection anomalies are found to be sensitive to SST errors where oceanic currents are strong, which is a challenge for ENSO prediction. The study further suggests that the observational analyses of the tropical SST balance based on the TAO and the Reynolds SST data contain significant errors due to the large gradient errors in the Reynolds SST data, which are amplified into the advection anomalies by the large equatorial currents.

EAWM-related air-sea-land interaction and the Asian summer monsoon circulation

Based on the data analysis, this study further explores the characteristics of East Asian winter monsoon (hereafter, EAWM, for brevity) as well as the related air-sea-land system, and illustrates how and to what degree anomalous signals of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon are rooted in the preceding EAWM activity. We identified an important air-sea coupled mode, i.e., the EAWM mode illustrated in Section 3. In cold seasons, strong EAWM-related air-sea two-way interaction is responsible for the development and persistence of the SSTA pattern of EAWM mode. As a consequence, the key regions, i.e., the western Pacific and South China Sea (hereafter, SCS, for brevity), are dominated by such an SSTA pattern from the winter to the following summer. In the strong EAWM years, the deficient snow cover dominates eastern Tibetan Plateau in winter, and in spring, this anomaly pattern is further strengthened and extended to the northwestern side of Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the combined effect of strong EAWM-related SSTA and Tibetan snow cover constitutes an important factor in modulating the Asian monsoon circulation. The active role of the EAWM activity as well as the related air-sea-land interaction would, in the subsequent seasons, lead to: 1) the enhancement of SCS monsoon and related stronger rainfall; 2) the northward displacement of subtropical high during Meiyu period and the related deficient rainfall over Meiyu rainband; 3) above-normal precipitation over the regions from northern Japan to northeastern China in summer; 4) more rainfall over the Arabian Sea and Northeast India, while less rainfall over southwest India and the Bay of Bengal. The strong EAWM-related air-sea interaction shows, to some degree, precursory signals to the following Asian summer monsoon. However, the mechanism for the variability of Indian summer monsoon subsequent to the strong EAWM years remains uncertain.

Dynamics of the buoyant plume off the Pearl River Estuary in summer

Field measurements of salinity, wind and river discharge and numerical simulations of hydrodynamics from 1978 to 1984 are used to investigate the dynamics of the buoyant plume off the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), China during summer. The studies have shown that there are four major horizontal buoyant plume types in summer: Offshore Bulge Spreading (Type I), West Alongshore Spreading (Type II), East Offshore Spreading (Type III), and Symmetrical Alongshore Spreading (Type IV). River mouth conditions, winds and ambient coastal currents have inter-influences to the transport processes of the buoyant plume. It is found that all of the four types are surface-advected plumes by analysing the vertical characteristic of the plumes, and the monthly variations of the river discharge affect the plume size dominantly. The correlation coefficient between the PRE plume size and the river discharge reaches 0.85 during the high river discharge season. A wind strength index has been introduced to examine the wind effect. It is confirmed that winds play a significant role in forming the plume morphology. The alongshore wind stress and the coastal currents determine the alongshore plume spreading. The impact of the ambient currents such as Dongsha Current and South China Sea (SCS) Warm Current on the plume off the shelf has also assessed. The present study has demonstrated that both the river discharge and wind conditions affect the plume evolution.

Variation in joint mode of the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean thermodynamic anomaly

Previous research has defined the index of the Indian-Pacific thermodynamic anomaly joint mode (IPTAJM) and suggested that the winter IPTAJM has an important impact on summer rainfall over China. However, the possible causes for the interannual and decadal variability of the IPTAJM are still unclear. Therefore, this work investigates zonal displacements of both the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIOWP). The relationships between the WPWP and the EIOWP and the IPTAJM are each examined, and then the impacts of the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans on the IPTAJM are studied. The WPWP eastern edge anomaly displays significant interannual and decadal variability and experienced a regime shift in about 1976 and 1998, whereas the EIOWP western edge exhibits only distinct interannual variability. The decadal variability of the IPTAJM may be mainly caused by both the zonal migration of the WPWP and the 850 hPa zonal wind anomaly over the central equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, the zonal migrations of both the WPWP and the EIOWP and the zonal wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may be all responsible for the interannual variability of the IPTAJM.

太平洋西部边界及边界流对赤道暖水库形成和演化的影响

A model of equatorial ocean is used to study the roles of the Pacific western boundary and the Mindanao Current (MC) in the evolution of the equatorial warm pool. The model consists of the single baroclinic mode of a two-layer ocean, with the parameterization of the anomalous increment of the interface representing the SST difference from its long-term-space-mean. The ocean is driven by a wind path in the middle ocean with a real or an artificial geometry assigned at the western and eastern boundaries. In order to test the role of the MC, the western boundary current is introduced into the model by a boundary condition at a position, real and unreal, respectively. The model experiments show that the warm pool, which is insensitive to the longitudinal width of the wind band in middle ocean, results mainly from the accumulation o the eastly-drifted warm water in the equatorial western Pacific. It is the dominant factor for the formation of the warm pool that, at a very low latitude, the Papua New Guinea coast intersects the longitudinally lined Philippine Islands at an obtuse angle. In contrast, the western Atlantic boundary, which inclines poleward from the equator at some 135 degrees, could guide the warm water there moving to a higher latitude. On the other hand, the equatorial warm pool in the western equatorial Pacific is very sensitive to the assignment of th Mindanao Current at 7.5°N and displaces southward, with a stronger southern branch than the northern one. We attribute this asymmetry to the combined effect of the western boundary and the MC upon the equatorial warm away from the equator. A by-product of our solutions is the possible mechanism of the "secondary warm pool" in the eastern Pacific north of the equator. It is suggested that, mainly or partly, the "secondary warm pool" results from the cooperation of the southeast monsoon in eastern Pacific and the eastern boundary hindering the propagation of the Kelvin wave poleward alongshore.

西太平洋暖池纬向变异规律研究

西太平洋暖池汇集着世界上开阔海洋中温度最高的海水，它的维持和变化对全球天气和气候的变化起着关键性的作用。从海洋学角度全面而系统地研究西太平洋暖池的纬向变异特征、机制以及暖池纬向变异对ENSO的影响等科学问题，对深入了解发生在暖池区的海气耦合过程，全面认识暖池变异在ENSO循环及在全球气候变化中的作用是不可缺少的，该项研究具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。 本文根据长时间序列的海洋和大气资料，利用EOF、小波等分析方法较系统地研究了西太平洋暖池整层暖水纬向运移特征、暖池水体的时空振荡及暖池纬向的运移、时空振荡对ENSO的影响，分析了西太平洋暖池和东太平洋暖池对ENSO的联合影响，探讨了风场和流场对西太平洋暖池纬向变异的影响，并用一个简单的海洋模式，对暖池纬向变异的动力机制进行了诊断分析。主要研究内容及结果如下： 利用加权平均法，建立了一个表征整体暖池纬向运移的指标序列，分析了暖池纬向运移的时频特征以及暖池内部暖水在纬向运移上的差异，并探讨了暖池的纬向运移对赤道西太平洋海平面高度和温跃层深度的影响以及与ENSO的关系。结果显示：暖池的纬向运移具有显著的2-7a的年际变化和10-16a的年代际变化，并于1976年前后经历了一次气候跃变。暖池内部大致可以50m深度水层为界分为上、下两部分，暖池的上半部分纬向运移幅度非常大，而下半部分则相对较小。暖池的纬向运移不仅是赤道西太平洋海平面高度和温跃层深度异常变化的一个非常重要的直接因素，而且对ENSO的形成与发展有非常重要的作用。 为进一步了解暖池整体的时空振荡及其影响，分别对暖池厚度场、热带太平洋风应力场、海表面高度和热含量场进行了EOF分析。结果显示，西太平洋暖池水体具有大致以赤道为横轴的经向“跷跷板”式季节性反位相振荡和大致以 170o E为纵轴的纬向“跷跷板”式年际反位相振荡。纬向振荡是暖池厚度异常场年际变率的的主导模态。西太平洋暖池暖水的纬向运移是造成暖池水体纬向振荡的主要原因。热带太平洋海表面高度与热含量异常场有着非常相似的ENSO时间尺度的振荡特征：即大致以5o N为横轴的经向“跷跷板”式反位相振荡和大致以170o W为纵轴的纬向“跷跷板”式反位相振荡。而与ENSO密切相关的热带太平洋风应力异常场也存在着纬向和经向两种主要模态，分别表现为近赤道的纬向风异常和远赤道的经向风异常。西太平洋暖池的纬向振荡对风应力异常存在滞后1个月左右的响应和显著的相互作用关系。西太平洋暖池纬向振荡能够造成热带太平洋水体质量与热量的重新分配，并通过强烈的海气相互作用对ENSO循环形成与发展起着重要的作用。 西太平洋暖池和东太平洋暖池是热带太平洋两个重要的暖水区。在系统分析西太平洋暖池的纬向变异和东太平洋暖池的经向变异特征基础上，提出了两暖池对ENSO循环联合影响的新观点，并建立了一个联合影响指数。结果显示，当联合指数达1.6时，则预示着一次新El Nino的发生。这为ENSO的研究和预测提供了一个新线索。 数据分析显示，赤道中太平洋的纬向风应力及上层纬向流异常是暖池纬向运移的两个重要的动力因素，且两者对暖池的纬向运移有良好的预报意义。利用一个简单的海洋模式模拟结果，分析了风驱动下的上层纬向流异常、波动(Kelvin波和Rossby波)及其在边界的反射效应对暖池纬向运移的动力影响。模式结果显示：中太平洋上层纬向流异常是西太平洋暖池纬向运移的主要驱动机制。暖池的纬向运移对波模态流具有滞后约4个月的响应，而风漂流对暖池纬向运移的影响则比较适时。波动在太平洋东、西两边界的反射效应对暖池西缩的影响较大。

岱海岩芯沉积的粒度组成与湖区全新世降水变化历史

Sediment cores DH99a and DH99b recovered in the central part of Daihai Lake in north-central China were analysed at 2- to 4-crn intervals for grain-size distribution. Grain-size distributions of the lake sediments are inferred to be a proxy for past changes in East Asian monsoon precipitation, such that greater silt-size percentage and higher median grain size reflect increased monsoonal precipitation rates. The grain-size record of Daihai Lake sediments spanning the last ca 11,000 yr indicates that the monsoonal precipitation in the lake region can be divided into three stages: the Early, Middle and Late Holocene. During the Early Holocene before ca 7900 cal yr BP, the median grain size (Md) and the silt-fraction content were relatively low and constant, suggesting relatively low precipitation over the lake region. The Middle Holocene between ca 7900 and 3100 cal yr BP was marked by intensified and highly variable monsoonal precipitation, as indicated by high and variable Md values and silt contents of the lake sediments. During this period, average precipitation rate gradually increased from ca 7900 to 6900 cal yr BP, displayed intense oscillations between ca 6900 and 4400 cal yr BP, and exhibited a decreasing trend while fluctuating from ca 4400 to 3100 cal yr BP Although generally high during the Middle Holocene, both the Md and the silt content assumed distinctly low values at the short intervals of ca 6500-6400, 6000-5900, 5700-5600, 4400-4200 cal yr BP, implying that monsoonal precipitation might have been significantly reduced during these intervals. During the Late Holocene since ca 3100 cal yr BP, grain-size values suggest that precipitation decreased. However, during the Late Holocene, relatively higher Md values and silt contents occurring between ca 1700 to 1000 cal yr BP may denote an intensification of hydrological cycles in the lake area. Changes in the East Asian monsoonal precipitation were not only directly linked with the changing seasonality of solar insolation resulting from progressive changes in the Earth's orbital parameters, but also may have been closely related to variations in the temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool, in the intensity of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and in the path and strength of the North Equatorial Current in the western Pacific.