Latin hypercube sampling used in the calculation of the fracture probability

The paper proposes Latin hypercube sampling combined with the stratified sampling of variance reduction technique to calculate accurate fracture probability. In the compound sampling, the number of simulations is relatively small and the calculation error is satisfactory.

Reconstructing The Vertical Distribution Of The Aeolian Saltation Mass Flux Based On The Probability Distribution Of Lift-Off Velocity

The probability distribution of lift-off velocity of the saltating grains is a bridge to linking microscopic and macroscopic research of aeolian sand transport. The lift-off parameters of saltating grains (i.e., the horizontal and vertical lift-off velocities, resultant lift-off velocity, and lift-off angle) in a wind tunnel are measured by using a Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer (PDPA). The experimental results show that the probability distribution of horizontal lift-off velocity of saltating particles on a bed surface is a normal function, and that of vertical lift-off velocity is an exponential function. The probability distribution of resultant lift-off velocity of saltating grains can be expressed as a log-normal function, and that of lift-off angle complies with an exponential function. A numerical model for the vertical distribution of aeolian mass flux based on the probability distribution of lift-off velocity is established. The simulation gives a sand mass flux distribution which is consistent with the field data of Namikas (Namikas, S.L., 2003. Field measurement and numerical modelling of acolian mass flux distributions on a sandy beach, Sedimentology 50, 303-326). Therefore, these findings are helpful to further understand the probability characteristics of lift-off grains in aeolian sand transport. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the detection probability for Yangtze finless porpoises (Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis) with a passive acoustic method

Yangtze finless porpoises were surveyed by using simultaneous visual and acoustical methods from 6 November to 13 December 2006. Two research vessels towed stereo acoustic data loggers, which were used to store the intensity and sound source direction of the high frequency sonar signals produced by finless porpoises at detection ranges up to 300 m on each side of the vessel. Simple stereo beam forming allowed the separation of distinct biosonar sound source, which enabled us to count the number of vocalizing porpoises. Acoustically, 204 porpoises were detected from one vessel and 199 from the other vessel in the same section of the Yangtze River. Visually, 163 and 162 porpoises were detected from two vessels within 300 m of the vessel track. The calculated detection probability using acoustic method was approximately twice that for visual detection for each vessel. The difference in detection probabilities between the two methods was caused by the large number of single individuals that were missed by visual observers. However, the sizes of large groups were underestimated by using the acoustic methods. Acoustic and visual observations complemented each other in the accurate detection of porpoises. The use of simple, relatively inexpensive acoustic monitoring systems should enhance population surveys of free-ranging, echolocating odontocetes. (C) 2008 Acoustical Society of America.

Probability of Sediment Incipient Motion Under Complex Flows

Presented in this paper is a mathematical model to calculate the probability of the sediment incipient motion, in which the effects of the fluctuating pressure and the seepage are considered. The instantaneous bed shear velocity and the pressure gradient on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow are obtained according to the PIV measurements. It is found that the instantaneous pressure gradient on the bed obeys normal distribution. The probability of the sediment incipient motion on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow is given by the mathematical model. The predicted results agree well with the experiment in the region downstream of the reattachment point while a large discrepancy between the theory and experiment is seen in the region near the reattachment point. The possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.