生物质气化与废弃物焚烧联合发电的技术经济分析

介绍了生物质气化与废弃物焚烧联合发电技术项目，确定了该项目经济效益的评价指标，定量计算了项目的投资回收期、净现值和内部收益率。同时还对燃料费用、上网电价和固定资产变化引起的敏感性进行分析。结果表明，该联合发电技术的动态投资回收期为9.05a，净现值为2770万元，内部收益率为15.82％，三个经济指标均符合行业标准。从经济角度看是完全可行的。

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

克拉2异常高压气藏地质特征及开发技术研究

Kela-2 gas field in Tarim Basin is the main supply source for West-to-East Pipeline project, also the largest abnormally-pressured gas field discovered in China currently. The geological characterization, fine geological modeling and field development plan are all the world-class difficult problems. This work includes an integrated geological and gas reservoir engineering study using advanced technology and approaches, the scientific development plan of Kela-2 gas field as well as the optimizations of the drilling, production and surface schemes. Then, it's expected that the Kela-2 gas field can be developed high-efficiently.Kuche depression is one part of the thrust belt of the South Tianshan Mountains, Kela-2 field is located at the Kelasu structural zone in the north of Kuche depression. The field territory is heavily rugged with deeply cut gullies, complex geological underground structure, variable rock types, thrust structure development. Therefore, considerable efforts have been made to develop an integrated technique to acquire, process and interpret the seismic data in complicated mountain region. Consequently a set of seismic-related techniques in the complicated mountain region has been developed and successfully utilized to interpret the structure of Kela-2 gas field.The main reservoir depositional system of Kela 2 gas field is a platform - fan delta - braided river system. The reservoir rocks are medium-fine and extremely fine grained sandstones with high structure maturity and low composition maturity. The pore system structure is featured by medium-small pore, medium-fine throat and medium-low assortment. The reservoir of Kela-2 gas field is characteristic of medium porosity and medium permeability. The pay zone is very thick and its lateral distribution is stable with a good connection of sand body. The overpressure is caused mainly by the strongly tectonic squash activities, and other factors including the later rapid raise and compartment of the high-pressure fluid, the injection of high-pressure fluid into the reservoir.Based on the deliverability tests available, the average binomial deliverability equation is provided applicable for the overall field. The experimental results of rock stress-sensitive tests are employed to analyze the change trend of petrophysical properties against net confining stress, and establish the stress-based average deliverability equation. The results demonstrate the effect of rock deformation on the deliverability is limited to less than 5% in the early period of Kela-2 gas field, indicating the insignificant effect on deliverability of rock deformation.In terms of the well pattern comparisons and development planning optimizations, it is recommended that the producers should be located almost linearly along the structural axis. A total of 9 producers have a stable gas supply volume of 10.76 BCMPY for 17 years. For Kela-2 gas field the total construction investment is estimated at ￥7,697,690,000 RMB with the internal earning rate of 25.02% after taxation, the net present value of ￥7,420,160,000 RMB and the payback period of 5.66 years. The high profits of this field development project are much satisfactory.