Prediction and elucidation of the population dynamics of Microcystis spp. in Lake Dianchi (China) by means of artificial neural networks

Lake Dianchi is a shallow and turbid lake, located in Southwest China. Since 1985, Lake Dianchi has experienced severe cyanabacterial blooms (dominated by Microcystis spp.). In extreme cases, the algal cell densities have exceeded three billion cells per liter. To predict and elucidate the population dynamics ofMicrocystis spp. in Lake Dianchi, a neural network based model was developed. The correlation coefficient (R 2) between the predicted algal concentrations by the model and the observed values was 0.911. Sensitivity analysis was performed to clarify the algal dynamics to the changes of environmental factors. The results of a sensitivity analysis of the neural network model suggested that small increases in pH could cause significantly reduced algal abundance. Further investigations on raw data showed that the response of Microcystis spp. concentration to pH increase was dependent on algal biomass and pH level. When Microcystis spp. population and pH were moderate or low, the response of Microcystis spp. population would be more likely to be positive in Lake Dianchi; contrarily, Microcystis spp. population in Lake Dianchi would be more likely to show negative response to pH increase when Microcystis spp. population and pH were high. The paper concluded that the extremely high concentration of algal population and high pH could explain the distinctive response of Microcystis spp. population to +1 SD (standard deviation) pH increase in Lake Dianchi. And the paper also elucidated the algal dynamics to changes of other environmental factors. One SD increase of water temperature (WT) had strongest positive relationship with Microcystis spp. biomass. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) had strong positive effect on Microcystis spp. abundance while total nitrogen (TN), biological oxygen demand in five days (BOD5), and dissolved oxygen had only weak relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration. And transparency (Tr) had moderate positive relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration.

环境CO2浓度和群落密度对红桦(Betula albosinensis Burk.)幼苗碳氮吸收和分配的影响

当前大气CO2浓度升高是全球变化的主要趋势之一，CO2浓度升高还会引起全球变暖等其它环境问题，因而CO2浓度浓度升高对植物影响的研究已经成为全球变化领域的焦点。红桦是川西亚高山地区暗针叶林演替初期的先锋树种和演替后期的建群种，在群落演替过程中它对环境因子的响应决定红桦群落的演替进程。本文通过控制CO2浓度的气候室试验，研究了CO2浓度倍增环境下，不同密度水平红桦碳氮固定、分配可能发生的改变，并探讨了升高大气CO2浓度对群体内部竞争的影响。以期通过本研究明确川西亚高山地区代表性物种红桦对未来气候变化的响应，为今后采取措施应对气候变化、妥善进行森林管理提供理论依据和科学指导。主要研究结果如下： 1.升高CO2浓度对红桦幼苗生长的影响以及树皮、树干响应的不同 (1) CO2浓度升高显著促进红桦幼苗的生物量、株高、基茎的生长，同时也改变生物量在体内的分配格局，主要是增加根和主茎、减少叶在总生物量中的比重。(2)树皮和树干对升高CO2浓度的影响有差异，它们对CO2浓度升高的反应程度不同，但反应方向一致。 2.密度的副效应 (1) 增加种植密度对单株生物量、株高和基径的生长具有副效应，也降低升高CO2浓度对红桦生长的正效应。(2) 增加种植密度，显著增加红桦幼苗的群体生物量，从而使红桦群体固定更多的大气CO2气体。可见密度在决定红桦生物量及固碳能力方面具有重要意义。探索适合未来大气CO2浓度升高条件下植物生长的密度，对未来的森林经济生产、生态恢复具有重要意义。 3. 升高CO2浓度对红桦幼苗苗冠结构及冠层内部竞争的影响 (1) 冠幅、冠高、苗冠表面积和苗冠体积等树冠特征均受CO2浓度升高的影响而增加，但是受密度增加的影响而降低。(2) 单位苗冠投影面积叶片数(LDcpa)和单位苗冠体积叶片数(LDcv)均低于相应的现行CO2浓度处理，这主要是由于冠幅和冠高的快速生长所造成的。(3) LDcpa和LDcv的降低表明，红桦在升高CO2浓度的条件下，会作出积极的响应，从而缓解由于群体和个体生长的增加所引起的竞争压力的增加。 4. 升高CO2浓度对红桦幼苗养分元素吸收与分配的影响 (1) CO2浓度升高，植株各器官N、P含量降低，但单株N、P总吸收量均增加。红桦幼苗体内N、P浓度的下降是由于生物量迅速增加引起的稀释效应造成的。(2) CO2浓度升高，N、P向主茎和根的分配增加，向叶片的分配减少，主要是由于前者在总生物量中的比重增加，而后者减少了。(3) CO2浓度升高，氮磷利用效率(NUE和PUE)提高，氮磷累积速率(NAcR和PAcR)显著增加。而NUE和PUE的提高可以有效缓解CO2浓度升高后，亚高山和高山地区森林土壤中养分元素不足对森林生产力的限制。 5. 升高CO2浓度对红桦幼苗群体碳平衡的影响 (1) 升高CO2浓度对植物的光合作用、呼吸速率和生长均具有促进作用。(2) 土壤有机碳含量在实验前期迅速增加，后期积累速率下降。(3) 升高CO2浓度以后，土壤呼吸显著增强；土壤呼吸还具有明显的季节变化。(4) 红桦群体日固碳量受到升高CO2浓度的促进作用。结果(1)-(4)说明所研究群落的碳动态对现行的气候波动是敏感的；所研究群落在作为大气CO2气体的源-汇关系方面至少存在季节间的源汇飘移。(5)种植密度的升高显著增加了群体固碳量。 6. 升高CO2浓度对红桦幼苗生长后期叶片衰老的影响 升高CO2浓度有利于减缓红桦幼苗叶片生长季节末期的衰老。生长季节末期，随着CO2浓度的升高光合速率和可溶性蛋白含量均呈上升趋势，同时MDA（丙二醛）含量下降，保护酶SOD（超氧化物岐化酶）、CAT（过氧化氢酶）活性升高。由此说明，升高CO2浓度有利于减缓生长季节后期叶片的衰老，使叶片维持较高的光合速率，也从生理学的角度支持了本文及前人有关CO2浓度升高促进植物光合和生长的假说及结果。 The increased CO2 concentration is one of the most important problems among global changes. The increase of CO2 will also cause other environmental problems, such as global warming, etc. So the effects of elevated CO2 on plant have drawn sights of many scientists in the research field of global change. Red birch (Betula albosinensis) usually emerges as the pioneer species in initial stage and as constructive species in later stages of forest community succession of the dark coniferous forests in Western Sichuan, China. It’s response to elevated CO2 may determine the succession process of the community where it lives in. By controlling CO2 at the ambient and twice as the ambient level (ambient + 350 umol mol-1) using enclosed-top chambers (ETC), possible effects of elevated CO2 on carbon fixation and allocation under two plantation densities are investigated. The effects of elevated CO2 on competition within canopy of red birch seedlings are also observed in the present paper. We hope to make sure of the effects of elevated CO2 on the representative species, red birch. And so that, our results could provide a strong theoretical evidence and scientific direction for forest management and afforestation under a future, CO2 elevated world. The results are as fowllows: 1. The effects of elevated CO2 on growth and the different responses of wood and bark of red birch seedlings (1) Elevated CO2 increases the growth of seedling biomass, seedling height and basal diameter of red birch. It also changed the biomass allocation in red birch seedlings. The ratio of root and main stem to all biomass is increased and the ratio of leaf is decreased. (2) Tree bark and wood show different response degree but similar response direction to elevated CO2. 2. Negative effects of planting density (1) The increase of planting density showes negative effects on the individual growth of seedling biomass, seedling height and basal diameter of red birch. It also eliminates the positive effects of elevated CO2 on growth of red birch seedlings. (2) Community biomass is increased by the elevated planting density, which means that the high density red birch community could fix more CO2 than the low density one. These results show that planting density plays an important role in determining biomass and carbon fixation ability of red birch community. Thus, exploring proper planting density becomes economically important for the future, CO2 elevated word. 3. The effects of elevated CO2 on crown architecture and competition within canopy of red birch seedlings (1) Crown width, crown depth, crown surface area and crown volume are all increased under the influence of elevated CO2. (2) Leaf number per unit area of projected crown area (LDcpa) and per unit volume of crown volume (LDcv) are lower under elevated CO2. This is resulted from the stimulated growth of tree crown features. (3) The decrease of LDcpa and LDcv indicate that plants will respond forwardly to reduce the possible increase of competition resulted from stimulated growth of individual plant and collectives in conditions of elevated CO2. 4. The effects of elevated CO2 on nutrition accumulation and allocation of red birch seedlings (1) Contents of N and P decrease due to the prompt increase of biomass of plant organs caused by elevated CO2. However, their accumulations increase under elevated CO2. (2) Elevated CO2 increases the allocation of N, P to main stem but reduced its allocation to leaf for that dry weight of the former increased but the dry weight of the later decreased. (3) Using efficiencies of N, P (NUE and PUE) and their accumulation rates (NAcR and PAcR) are found to increase under elevated CO2. Soil nutrition contents are always the limiting factors for plant growth at subalpine and alpine region. The increased NUE and PUE are helpful to eliminate the nutrition limitation in this area in the future world, when CO2 concentration doubles the ambient. 5. The effects of elevated CO2 on carbon balance of red birch communities (1) Net photosynthetic rates (Pn), dark respiration rates (Rd) and growth are all stimulated by elevated CO2. (2) Content soil organic carbon increases sharply at the primary stage of experiments and then the increasing rates decrease to a low level at later stages. (3) Soil respiration rates increase significantly with the elevation of CO2 concentration. (4) The daily carbon fixations of whole community are heightened by elevated CO2. The results (1)-(4) suggest that, the community being studied are sensitive to current climate change; the studied community, as a sink of atmospheric CO2, is pool-sink alternative between seasons. (5) The carbon fixations are increased along the increase of planting densities. 6. The effects of elevated CO2 on physiological features of leaf senescences of red birch seedlings at the later stage of growing season Elevated CO2 helps to postpone the leaf senescences of red birch at the end of the growth season. CO2 enrichment increases the photosynthetic rates, contents of soluble proteins and photosynthetic pigments. And meanwhile contents of malondialdehyde (MDA) decreases and activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT) are both increased. These results suggest that the senescences of red birch leaves are delayed by elevated CO2, which keep the photosynthetic rates at relatively high levels. Our results lend supports to hypothesis and results on stimulated photosynthetic rates and growth from both other researchers and the present paper.

若尔盖湿地公路对两栖类的生态影响

本文考察了若尔盖高寒泥炭湿地公路对高原林蛙（Rana kukunoris）、倭蛙（Narorana pleskei）和岷山蟾蜍（Bufo minshanicus）的生态影响。分析了公路对两栖动物空间分布和栖息地利用的影响，并用IBM模型探讨其可能作用机制，考察了两栖动物公路死亡的季节差异及影响公路死亡空间分布的景观因素。最后通过对若尔盖高寒湿地两栖动物陆地核心栖息地的分析，为若尔盖路域栖息地的管理提供依据。 1. 对公路周边6个沼泽水凼群进行了调查，每个样地设置5条样线（距离公路10m、20m、50m、100m和150m）。调查表明，在繁殖季节(5月)，距离公路距离对高原林蛙和倭蛙的相对数量都有显著作用，其效应明显大于其他各项栖息地环境参数。公路导致高原林蛙和倭蛙在公路周边种群密度降低，其相对数量从距离公路100m处到公路边缘一直呈现逐渐降低的趋势。在繁殖季节，若尔盖高寒湿地的公路生态影响域大约在100-150m之间，这一距离远远大于森林栖息地中公路对两栖类的生态影响域（35-40 m）。 在繁殖后期（9月），对公路周边16个草地样点的样线调查表明，公路对周边高原林蛙和倭蛙密度分布并未造成显著影响。 2. 二次模型的拟合表明繁殖季节高原林蛙和倭蛙在公路周边的密度分布符合钟型曲线。前人对森林公路两侧两栖类分布的研究也显示了类似的规律。我们通过基于个体的模型，模拟在了公路边缘100单位距离内的栖息地空间，栖息地环境质量呈梯度变化，动物个体在其中通过随机运动寻找适宜的栖息地。拟合结果表明，动物个体仅仅依照简单的运动规则寻找适宜栖息地，这种活动就可以导致公路周边栖息地中的动物分布曲线出现3个局部峰。公路周边两栖动物的钟型分布曲线可能仅仅是个体寻找适宜栖息地过程中出现的临时性群体分布模式。 3. 在若尔盖高寒湿地，公路交通造成了大量两栖类死亡。但是公路两栖类动物死亡的季节分布很不均匀：5月、8月和9月死亡数量很高，而7月和10月死亡数量却很低。这种季节性差异和两栖类各个生活史阶段的迁移运动有密切的关系。利用景观参数的逻辑斯蒂回归模型显示，距离公路1000-2000m范围内的湿草地比例对三种两栖类公路死亡概率均有很强的贡献。湿草地这一栖息地类型分类中有大量的沼泽水体，是两栖类重要的繁殖点和取食点。两栖类公路死亡概率湿草地的关系从一个侧面表明，要维持一个区域较高的两栖类种群数量，需要1000-2000m半径范围内存在大面积的湿草地。 4. 高原林蛙和岷山蟾蜍不同性别和年龄个体分布点的水体距离存在显著差异。不同种类、年龄的两栖类分布点距离水体距离的差异可能是由于对水体的依赖性造成的。而相同种类、年龄段的个体中，高原林蛙雌性、岷山蟾蜍亚成体和雌性的体重与分布点距水体距离有显著负相关，这可能是因为体重更大的个体对水体的依赖性更弱。考虑到过大的陆地核心栖息地面积在实际保护工作中存在操作上的困难，因此我们认为可以以水体周边90%个体的分布区为低限确定3种两栖类的最小陆地核心栖息地。但是，在同样的水体距离-两栖类密度分布格局下，水体的面积和分形参数对最小陆地核心栖息地半径的确定有一定影响。 Ecological effects of alpine wetland road on Rana kukunoris, Narorana pleskei, Bufo minshanicus was studied in Zoige wetland. The effects of road on distribution of amphibians and its possible underline mechanism was discussed based on empirical data and computer simulation. Road killed amphibians was surveyed in different season and those landscape factor which could have impact on road killing distribution was analyses. Core terrestrial habitat of amphibians in Zoige wetland was discussed in the consideration of conservation management. 1. Six pool groups was investigated in breeding season (May) of R. kukunoris, N. pleskei. Five transects at distance of 10m, 20m, 50m, 100m and 150m from road edge was surveyed in each pool groups. There was a significant effects of distance from road edge on relative counts of R. kukunoris, N. pleskei, which is much important than effects of other environmental factors. Road caused the density of R. kukunoris, N. pleskei decreased from distance of 100m from road to 10m from road. Road ecological effect zone of alpine wetland for amphibians is about 100-150m. It is much wider than those of forest roads, which is about 35-40m. However, studies on 16 grassland near road showed no significant effect of road on amphibians after breeding season (Sep.). 2. Quadratic model fit indicated that the distribution of R. kukunoris and N. Pleskei followed a hump like curve. Previous studies on forest road showed similar results. A 100×100 habitat with gradual environment besides road was simulated with a individual-based model, and animal seek for suitable habitat with stochastic locomotion in it. Simulation results indicated that 3 density peak of animal distribution can emergent followed a simply rules. The hump like density cure could be a temporal swarm pattern during the process of individual seeking for habitat. 3. Road traffic caused mass death of amphibians in Zoige wetland. There was much road killed amphibians in May, Aug and Sep than those in July and Oct. The fluctuation of road kill could be related with migration of amphibians between seasons. Logistic regression of landscape variables indicated that wet grassland in 1000-2000m is essential to predict the probability of road kill. Wet grassland is an important breeding and forage habitat for amphibians. It also indicated that mass wet grassland in 1000-2000m is essential for maintain a big amphibian population. 4. There was significant differences among distance from aquatic site of subadults, female and males of R. kukunoris and B. Minshanicus. Possibly, it was because of their dependence on water. There was a significant negative relationship between distance from aquatic site and individuals body mass. Estimates of core habitat that are too large may make it difficult to establish protective regulations. The smallest suitable terrestrial core habitats were defined as the terrestrial habitats used during migration to and from the wetlands, and for foraging by 90% of any life stage (adults, and subadults) in a season. However, even with the same amphibian distribution pattern along the distance from aquatic sites, the radii of smallest suitable terrestrial core habitats will be varied with the fractal parameters of aquatic site.

The nitrogen isotopic composition of dissolved nitrate in the Yangtze River (Changjiang) estuary, China

The nitrogen isotopic composition of dissolved nitrate (delta N-15-NO3-) in surface water of the Yangtze River estuary was determined in four seasons of 2006. delta N-15-NO3- ranged from 0.4 parts per thousand to 6.5 parts per thousand and varied with seasons and geographic regions, reflecting the dynamics of nitrogen cycling in the estuarine ecosystem. delta N-15-NO3- was markedly lower in February than in other seasons and exhibited conservative mixing, which was probably attributed to the NO3- being sourced from the atmospheric deposition and agricultural fertilizer. In the upper estuary, the influence of riverine inputs was important during all surveys. in the turbidity maximum zone, nitrification was found with nitrate depleted in N-15 in May, whereas denitrification resulting in heavy delta N-15-NO3- played an important role in August. More enriched delta N-15-NO3- values coinciding with losses of nitrate concentrations based on the conservative mixing model were found in the adjacent marine area in May, and may reflect obvious phytoplankton assimilation of dissolved nitrate. In this manner, delta N-15-NO3- may be a sensitive indicator of nitrogen sources and biogeochemical processing existing in this estuary in conjunction with the variations of dissolved nitrate and other environmental factors. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Control mechanisms of diel vertical migration: Theoretical assumptions

We explore control mechanisms underlying the vertical migration of zooplankton in the water column under the predator-avoidance hypothesis. Two groups of assumptions in which the organisms are assumed to migrate vertically in order to minimize realized or effective predation pressure (type-I) and to minimize changes in realized or effective predation pressure (type-II), respectively, are investigated. Realized predation pressure is defined as the product of light intensity and relative predation abundance and the part of realized predation pressure that really affects organisms is termed as effective predation pressure. Although both types of assumptions can lead to the migration of zooplankton to avoid the mortality from predators, only the mechanisms based on type-II assumptions permit zooplankton to undergo a normal diel vertical migration (morning descent and evening ascent). The assumption of minimizing changes in realized predation pressure is based on consideration of DVM induction only by light intensity and predators. The assumption of minimizing changes in effective predation pressure takes into account, apart from light and predators also the effects of food and temperature. The latter assumption results in the same expression of migration velocity as the former one when both food and temperature are constant over water depth. A significant characteristic of the two type-II assumptions is that the relative change in light intensity plays a primary role in determining the migration velocity. The photoresponse is modified by other environmental variables: predation pressure, food and temperature. Both light and predation pressure are necessary for organisms to undertake DVM. We analyse the effect of each single variable. The modification of the phototaxis of migratory organisms depends on the vertical distribution of these variables. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Effects of macroalgae Ulva pertusa (Chlorophyta) and Gracilaria lemaneiformis (Rhodophyta) on growth of four species of bloom-forming dinoflagellates

The effects of fresh thalli and culture medium filtrates from two species of marine macroalgae, Ulva pertusa Kjellm (Chlorophyta) and Gracilaria lemaneiformis (Bory) Dawson (Rhodophyta), on growth of marine microalgae were investigated in co-culture under controlled laboratory conditions. A selection of microalgal species were used, all, being identified as bloom-forming dinoflagellates: Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu sp., Alexandrium tamarense (Lebour) Balech, Amphidinium carterae Hulburt and Scrippsiella trochoide (Stein) Loeblich III. Results showed that the fresh thalli of either U. pertusa or G. lemaneiformis significantly inhibited the microalgal growth, or caused mortality at the end of the experiment. However, the overall effects of the macroalgal culture filtrates on the growth of the dinoflagellates were species-specific (inhibitory, stimulatory or none) for different microalgal species. Results indicated an allelopathic effect of macroalga on the co-cultured dinoflagellate. We then took P. donghaiense as an example to further assess this hypothesis. The present study was carried out under controlled conditions, thereby excluded the fluctuation in light and temperature. Nutrient assays showed that nitrate and phosphate were almost exhausted in G. lemaneiformis co-culture. but remained at enough high levels in U pertusa co-culture, which were well above the nutrient limitation for the microalgal growth, when all cells of P. donghaiense were killed in the co-culture. Daily f/2 medium enrichment greatly alleviated the growth inhibition on P. donghaiense in G. lemaneiformis co-culture, but could not eliminate it. Other environmental factors, such as carbonate limitation, bacterial presence and the change of pH were also not necessary for the results. We thus concluded that allelopathy was the most possible reason leading to the negative effect of U. pertusa on P. donghaiense, and the combined roles of allelopathy and nutrient competition were essential for the effect of G. lemaneiformis on P. donghaiense. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of temperature on CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and an alpine meadow

The alpine meadow ecosystem on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is characterized by low temperatures because of its high elevation. The low-temperature environment may limit both ecosystem photosynthetic CO2 uptake and ecosystem respiration, and thus affect the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE). We clarified the low-temperature constraint on photosynthesis and respiration in an alpine meadow ecosystem on the northern edge of the plateau using flux measurements obtained by the eddy covariance technique in two growing seasons. When we compared NEE during the two periods, during which the leaf area index and other environmental parameters were similar but the mean temperature differed, we found that NEE from 9 August to 10 September 2001, when the average temperature was low, was greater than that during the same period in 2002, when the average temperature was high, but the ecosystem gross primary production was similar during the two periods. Further analysis showed that ecosystem respiration was significantly higher in 2002 than in 2001 during the study period, as estimated from the relationship between temperature and nighttime ecosystem respiration. The results suggest that low temperature controlled the NEE mainly through its influence on ecosystem respiration. The annual NEE, estimated from 15 January 2002 to 14 January 2003, was about 290 g CO2 m(-2) year(-1). The optimum temperature for ecosystem NEE under light-saturated conditions was estimated to be around 15 degrees C.

AVO分析与地震资料叠前储层预测技术

In this paper we base on the anisotropic theory and Zoeppritz function of the transmission theory and the law of amplitude versus offset simplify seismic reflection coefficient of different media, analyze the characteristic of the gas or oil saturated stratum or the VTI and HTI models. Discuss the P wave reflection relationship and the meanings of the different parameters. We use measured parameters of a reservoir to simulate the characteristic of the reservoir, study the different effects of stratum saturated with gas or oil and analyze the characteristic of the seismic response of different models which change with different incident angles and different azimuths. Using the field data of logs ,analyze the rock property parameters, build the relationship of logs and parameters by Gassmann theory or empirical function. Calculate the density and the shear modulus and bulk modulus, reconstruct the log curves, calculate shear wave logs and correlate the logs affected by mud and other environmental factors. Finally perform the relationship of the seismic data log of saturated stratum and enhance the ability and reliability in reservoir prediction. Our aim is by the prestack seismic processing to get high solution and amplitude preserved seismic data. Because in incident angle gathers or azimuthal gathers, the low signal to noise ratio and low different covers affect the result of the prestack reservoir prediction. We apply prestack noise erase, cell regularization process and relatively amplitude preservation in the high solution seismic process routine to preserve the characteristic of stratum response, and erase the effects of the noise. In this paper we finished prestack invertion in the BYT survey and fractured reservoir depiction in MB survey. By the invertion and multiple attributes crossplot. we can get the stratum profiles and oil indicator profiles which can predict the distribution of the reservoir and oil. In the MB survey, we get orientation and density of fractured reservoir by the azimuthal seismic amplitude and depict the potential oil and gas reservoir. Prestak invertion works better in distinguishing oil and reservoir.