7 resultados para 2447: modelling and forecasting
em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal
Resumo:
Only the first- order Doppler frequency shift is considered in current laser dual- frequency interferometers; however; the second- order Doppler frequency shift should be considered when the measurement corner cube ( MCC) moves at high velocity or variable velocity because it can cause considerable error. The influence of the second- order Doppler frequency shift on interferometer error is studied in this paper, and a model of the second- order Doppler error is put forward. Moreover, the model has been simulated with both high velocity and variable velocity motion. The simulated results show that the second- order Doppler error is proportional to the velocity of the MCC when it moves with uniform motion and the measured displacement is certain. When the MCC moves with variable motion, the second- order Doppler error concerns not only velocity but also acceleration. When muzzle velocity is zero the second- order Doppler error caused by an acceleration of 0.6g can be up to 2.5 nm in 0.4 s, which is not negligible in nanometric measurement. Moreover, when the muzzle velocity is nonzero, the accelerated motion may result in a greater error and decelerated motion may result in a smaller error.
Resumo:
Mode behaviour for SOI slot waveguides is modelled and analysed using a numerical full vectorial method based on the film mode matching method (MMM). Only the quasi-TE mode is investigated. Waveguide heights and slot widths, as well as silicon widths are properly chosen with respect to the single mode behaviour in the slot region. Comparison between the effective index method and our side loss method shows that our single mode condition is creditable. The optical power confinement in slot region for the quasi-TE mode is also studied and presented. We demonstrate that the maximum achievable optical power confinement P-slot and the maximum normalized average optical intensity I-slot are 42% and 26 mu m(-2), respectively.
Resumo:
The grey system theory studies the uncertainty of small sample size problems. This paper using grey system theory in the deformation monitoring field, based on analysis of present grey forecast models, developed the spatial multi-point model. By using residual modification, the spatial multi-point residual model eras developed in further study. Then, combined with the sedimentation data of Xiaolangdi Multipurpose Dam, the results are compared and analyzed, the conclusion has been made and the advantages of the residual spatial multi-point model has been proved.
Resumo:
A novel manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) was cloned from bay scallop Argopecten irradians by 3' and 5' rapid amplification of cDNA ends (RACE) PCR. The full-length cDNA of MnSOD was of 1207 bp with a 678 bp open reading frame encoding 226 amino acids. The deduced amino acid sequence contained a putative signal peptide of 26 amino acids. Sequence comparison showed that the MnSOD of A. irradians shared high identity with MnSOD in invertebrates and vertebrates, such as MnSOD from abalone Haliotis discus discus (ABG88843) and frog Xenopus laevis (AAQ63483). Furthermore, the 3D structure of bay scallop MnSOD was predicted by SWISS-MODEL Protein Modelling Server and compared with those of other MnSODs. The overall structure of bay scallop MnSOD was similar to those of zebrafish Danio rerio, fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, Chinese shrimp Fenneropenaeus chinensis, human Homo sapiens, and had the highest similarity to scallop Mizuhopecten yessoensis and abalone H. discus discus. A quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) assay was developed to detect the mRNA expression of MnSOD in different tissues and the temporal expression in haemocytes following challenge with the bacterium Vibrio anguillarum. A higher-level of mRNA expression of MnSOD was detected in gill and mantle. The expression of MnSOD reached the highest level at 3 h post-injection with V. anguillarum and then slightly recovered from 6 to 48 h. The results indicated that bay scallop MnSOD was a constitutive and inducible protein and thus could play an important role in the immune responses against V anguillarum infection. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
本文将随机系统状态模型辨识技术用于电力系统负荷预报。首先根据负荷的一系列历史数据建立负荷的状态空间模型,然后用滤波算法进行次日负荷预报,最后用电网实际数据在 PDP-11/23计算机上进行预报计算,得到比较满意的结果。
Resumo:
As a key issue of ionospheric weather study, systemic studies on ionospheric storms can not only further improve our understanding of the response of the ionosphere to solar and geomagnetic disturbances, but also help us to reveal the chemical, dynamic and electro-dynamic mechanisms during storms. Empirical modelling for regional ionospheric storm is also very useful, because it can provide us with tools and references for the forecasting and further practical application of ionospheric activity. In this thesis, we focus on describing and forecasting of ionospheric storms at middle and low latitudes. The main points of my investigations are listed as follows. (1) By using magnetic storms during the period over 50 years, the dependence of the type, onset time and time delay of the ionospheric storms on magnetic latitude, season and local time at middle and low latitudes in the East-Asian sector are studied. The results show that the occurrences of the types of ionospheric disturbances differ in latitude and season. The onset of the ionospheric storms depends on local time. At middle latitudes, most negative phase onsets are within the local time interval from night to early morning, and they rarely occurred in the local noon and afternoon sectors. At low latitudes, positive phases commence most frequently in the daytime sector as well as pre-midnight sector. The average time delays for both the positive and negative ionospheric storms increase with descending latitudes. The time delay has significant dependence on the local time of main phase onset (MPO). The time delay of positive response is shorter for daytime MPO and longer for night-time MPO, whereas the opposite applies for negative response. (2) Based on some previous researches, a primary empirical model for mid-latitude ionospheric disturbance is set up. By fitting to the observed data, we get a high accuracy with a mean RMSE of only 12-14% in summer and equinox. The model output has been compared with the output of STORM model, and the results show that, our model is much better than STORM in summer and a little better for some mid-latitude stations at equinox. Especially, for the type of two-step geomagnetic storm, our model can present twice descending of foF2 very well. In addition, our model can forecast positive ionospheric storms.
Resumo:
A full understanding of failure mechanism, critical hydrological condition, and process of mobilization and deposition of a landslide is essential for optimal design of stabilization measure and forecasting of landslide hazard. This requires a quantitative study of hydrological response of a slope to rainfall through field monitoring, laboratory test and numerical modelling. At 13:40 on September 18, 2002, a fill slope failed following a period of prolonged rain in Shenzhen, resulting in 5 fatalities and 31 injuries. The failed mass with a volume about 2.5×104m3 traveled about 140m on level ground. Field monitoring, laboratory test, theoretical analysis and numerical modelling were carried out to undestand the hydrological response and failure mechanism of this fill slope. This thesis mainly focuses on the following aspects: (1) The hydrological responses and failure processes of slopes under rainfall infiltration were reviewed. Firstly, the factors influencing on the hydrological responses of slopes were analysed. Secondly, the change of stress state of slope soil and modelling methods of slope failure under rainfall infiltration were reviewed. (2) The characteristics of the Yangbaodi landslide and associated rainfall triggering the failure were presented. The failure was characterized by shallow flowslide, due to an increase of ground water table caused by rainfall infiltration. (3) A fully automated instrumentation was carried out to monitor rainfall, and saturated – unsaturated hydrological response of the fill slope, using a raingauge, piezometers, tensiometers and moisture probes. A conceptual hydrogeological model was presented based on field monitoring and borehole data. Analysis of monitoring data showed that the high pore water pressure in fill slope was caused by upward flow of semiconfined groundwater in the moderately decomposed granite. (4) Laboratory and in-situ testing was performed to study the physical and mechanical properties of fills. Isotropically consolidated undrained compression tests and anisotropically consolidated constant shear stress tests were carried out to understand the failure mechanism of the fill slope. It is indicated that loosely compacted soil is of strain-softening behaviour under undrained conditions, accompanied with a rapid increase in excess pore water pressure. In anisotropically consolidated constant shear stress tests, a very small axial strain was required to induce the failure and the excess pore water pressure increased quickly at failure. This indicated that static liquefaction caused by rise in groundwater table due to rainfall infiltration occurred. (5) The hydraulic conductivity of the highly and moderately decomposed granite was estimated using monitering data of pore water pressure. A saturated – unsaturated flow was modeled to study the hydrological response of the fill slope using rainfall records. It was observed that the lagged failure was due to the geological conditions and the discrepancy of hydraulic conductivity of slope soils. The hydraulic conductivity of moderately decomposed granite is relatively higher than the other materials, resulting in a semiconfied groundwater flow in the moderately decomposed granite, and subsequent upward flow into the upper fill layer. When the ground water table in the fill layer was increased to the critical state, the fill slope failed. (6) Numerical exercises were conducted to replay the failure process of the fill slope, based on field monitoring, laboratory and in-situ testing. It was found that the fill slope was mobilized by a rapid transfer of the concentrated shear stress. The movement of failure mass was characterized by viscosity fluid with a gradual increase in velocity. The failure process, including mobilization and subsequent movement and deposition, was studied using numerical methods.