Characteristic rainfall for warning of debris flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow. The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase, and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows. Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin, Yunnan Province, in southwestern China, demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall. It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram. The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution. It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin, a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

三峡库区滑坡的时空分布、成因及其预报模式

Landslides are widely distributed along the main stream banks of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially with the acceleration of the human economic activities in the recent 30 years, the occurrence of landslide hazards in the local area trends to be more serious. Because of the special geological, topographic and climatic conditions of the Three Gorges areas, many Paleo-landslides are found along the gentle slope terrain of the population relocation sites. Under the natural condition, the Paleo-landslides usually keep stable. The Paleo-landslides might revive while they are influenced under the strong rainfall, water storage and migration engineering disturbance. Therefore, the prediction and prevention of landslide hazards have become the important problem involving with the safety of migration engineering of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The past research on the landslides of the Three Gorges area is mainly concentrated on the stability analysis of individual landslide, and importance was little attached to the knowledge on the geological environment background of the formation of regional landslides. So, the relationship between distribution and evolution of landslides and globe dynamic processes was very scarce in the past research. With further study, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons for the magnitude and frequency of major geological hazards in terms of single endogenic or exogenic processes. It is possible to resolve the causes of major landslides in the Three Gorges area through the systematic research of regional tectonics and river evolution history.In present paper, based on the view of coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic processes, the author researches the temporal and spacial distribution and formation evolution of major landslides(Volume^lOOX 104m3) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through integration of first-hand sources statistics, .geological evolution history, isotope dating and numerical simulation method etc. And considering the main formation factors of landslides (topography, geology and rainfall condition), the author discusses the occurrence probability and prediction model of rainfall induced landslides.The distribution and magnitude of Paleo-landslides in the Three Gorges area is mainly controlled by lithology, geological structure, bank slope shape and geostress field etc. The major Paleo-landslides are concentrated on the periods 2.7-15.0 X 104aB.R, which conrresponds to the warm and wettest Paleoclimate stages. In the same time, the Three Gorges area experiences with the quickest crust uplift phase since 15.0X 104aB.P. It is indicated that the dynamic factor of polyphase major Paleo-landslides is the coupling processes of neotectonic movement and Quaternary climate changes. Based on the numerical simulation results of the formation evolution of Baota landslide, the quick crust uplift makes the deep river incision and the geostress relief causes the rock body of banks flexible. Under the strong rainfall condition, the pore-water pressure resulted from rain penetration and high flood level can have the shear strength of weak structural plane decrease to a great degree. Therefore, the bank slope is easy to slide at the slope bottom where shear stress concentrates. Finally, it forms the composite draught-traction type landslide of dip stratified rocks.The susceptibility idea for the rainfall induced landslide is put forward in this paper and the degree of susceptibility is graded in terms of the topography and geological conditions of landslides. Base on the integration with geological environment factors and rainfall condition, the author gives a new probabilistic prediction model for rainfall induced landslides. As an example from Chongqing City of the Three Gorges area, selecting the 5 factors of topography, lithology combination, slope shape, rock structure and hydrogeology and 21 kinds of status as prediction variables, the susceptibility zonation is carried out by information methods. The prediction criterion of landslides is established by two factors: the maximum 24 hour rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. The new prediction model is possible to actualize the real-time regional landslide prediction and improve accuracy of landslide forecast.

国际尖端材料技术协会(SAMPE)第24届技术会议和第3届金属及金属加工会议(1992年10月20—22日,加拿大多伦多)

<正> 国际尖端材料技术协会(SAMPE:Society for the Advancement of Material and Process Engineering)于1992年10月20—22月在加拿大多伦多市召开了两个国际学术会议:第24届国际SAMPE技术会议(24th Int.SAMPE Techn。Coaf。)和第3届国际金属与金属加工会议(3rd Int.SAMPE Metals and Metals Processin Conf.)。两个会议同时举行,全体会议(Plenary Session)在一个会场举行。前者的主题是“先进材料迎接经济的挑战”;后者的主题是“合成与加工的新进展”.尽管此二会议是在西方发达国家经济很不景

第24届国际激波学术会议征文

<正>国际激波学术会议（International Sxmnosiumon Shock Waves,简称 ISSW）是国际上激波研究领域的重要系列学术会议.自1957年第一届会议在Boston召开以来,每隔两年召开一次,迄今共计举办了23次.美国、德国、加拿大、澳大利亚、英国、日本、以色列、法国等国家的著名大学和研究机构等都先后主持和承办了国际激波学术会议.该会议对交流激波研究的最新进展、激励和推动在工程、物理和

第24届国际稀薄气体动力学会议简介

第24届国际稀薄气体动力学会议于2004年7月11日至16日在意大利巴里市召开.会议主席为巴里大学化学系主任马里奥?卡彼特利教授.

第24届国际激波学术会议简介

国际激波学术会议（International Symposium on Shock Waves,ISSW）是国际上激波研究领域的重要系列学术会议.从1957年第一届会议在美国波士顿召开起,每隔两年召开一次,至今已召开24次.

冲绳海槽北部PC-1岩芯24 cal.kaBP 以来孢粉记录的古环境信息

东海陆架是世界上最宽阔的陆架之一，面积达770 000 km2左右。在末次冰盛期（LGM），东海海平面下降120～130 m左右，绝大部分陆架暴露出海面。而冲绳海槽是第四纪以来一直保持海洋环境的东海深海区。本文以冲绳海槽北部PC-1岩芯为材料，通过分析该孔的孢粉，加上详细的AMS 14C测年，恢复了周边地区24 cal.kaBP以来的古植被，并推测古环境和古气候变化，重点讨论了LGM时期出露大陆架上发育的植被。 PC-1孔（31°27.5′N，128°24.8′E）位于黑潮支流对马暖流东侧，水深590 m，柱长812 cm。孢粉分析按间隔8 cm取样，个别为4~6 cm，共分析了103个孢粉样品。利用9个AMS 14C数据建立年龄标尺，用Calib5.1.0软件进行年龄校正。通过相邻样品深度的线性内插获得每个样品的年龄，采用外延法得到顶部和底部的校正年龄分别为351cal aBP、24 280 cal aBP，孢粉样品的时间分辨率平均为230 a。 根据孢粉百分比和沉积率的变化，可划分出四个带：Ⅰ带（812～715 cm，24.2～21.1 cal. kaBP）、Ⅱ带（715～451 cm，21.1～15.2 cal. kaBP）、Ⅲ带（451～251 cm，15.2～10.8 cal. kaBP）、Ⅳ带（251～0 cm，10.8～0.3 cal. kaBP），分别对应MIS 3末期、末次冰盛期、冰消期和全新世。末次冰盛期草本植物花粉占优势，孢粉沉积率较高，此时草本花粉主要来源于出露的大陆架，其上发育了以蒿属为主的草地植被，气候比较寒冷干燥；冰消期海平面开始回升，松属花粉含量升高，草本植物花粉含量下降；全新世以木本植物花粉占绝对优势，栗属－栲属花粉迅速增加，蕨类孢子含量升高，草本植物花粉含量锐减，孢粉沉积率降低，由于海平面回升，大陆架被淹没，此时孢粉主要来源于日本岛，九州地区生长了以栲属、栎属为主的常绿阔叶与落叶阔叶林，气候温暖湿润。 叶枝杉属花粉在整个岩芯中零星出现。叶枝杉属植物分布于菲律宾吕宋北部至塔斯马尼亚和新西兰气候潮湿的山地林中，该属花粉在岩芯中的出现，可能暗示了黑潮的影响或者是较强的夏季风。 草本植物与松属花粉百分比变化很好的反映了海平面的升降，松属花粉含量较高指示海平面较高。对岩芯中主要类型的花粉百分比进行了频谱分析，显示存在千年尺度的准周期变化，有明显的6.8，3.8，2.2，1.6 ka的周期。 孢粉样品中的炭屑统计表明，末次冰消期炭屑含量最高，可能因为末次冰消期降雨量增加，炭屑可被降水带到沉积地点沉积下来；全新世的炭屑浓度较高，尤其在晚全新世，出现了一个峰值，究其原因可能与气候变化和人类活动有关。

HIVp 24 抗原检测技术的研究进展

　p 24 是H IV 的主要结构蛋白, 在病毒的包装和成熟过程中起重要作用。p 24 蛋白的氨基酸序列在 H IV 各毒株之间高度保守。H IV p 24 抗原的检测在早期诊断、预测病程、胎儿感染确诊和基础研究等方面具有重要 意义。本文主要介绍了H IV p 24 抗原的生物学特性、检测意义, 评述了各种检测方法的主要优缺点和发展趋势。