Equatorial pacific SSTA-related decadal variations of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate

Based on analysis of NCEP reanalysis data and SST indices of the recent 50 years, decadal changes of the potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies were investigated. Autocorrelation of Nino3 SST anomalies (SSTA) and correlation between atmospheric anomalies fields and Nino3 SSTA exhibit obvious variation in different decades, which indicates that Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate anomalies has significant decadal changes. Time around 1977 is not only a shift point of climate on the interdecadal time scale but also a catastrophe point of potential predictability of ENSO and interannual climate. As a whole, ENSO and the PNA pattern in boreal winter are more predictable in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s, while the Nino3 SSTA-related potential predictability of the Indian monsoon and the East Asian Monsoon is lower in 1980s than in 1960s and 1970s.

COASTAL SEA-LEVEL AND THE LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE STATE - A DOWNSCALING EXERCISE FOR THE JAPANESE ISLANDS

A major problem which is envisaged in the course of man-made climate change is sea-level rise. The global aspect of the thermal expansion of the sea water likely is reasonably well simulated by present day climate models; the variation of sea level, due to variations of the regional atmospheric forcing and of the large-scale oceanic circulation, is not adequately simulated by a global climate model because of insufficient spatial resolution. A method to infer the coastal aspects of sea level change is to use a statistical ''downscaling'' strategy: a linear statistical model is built upon a multi-year data set of local sea level data and of large-scale oceanic and/or atmospheric data such as sea-surface temperature or sea-level air-pressure. We apply this idea to sea level along the Japanese coast. The sea level is related to regional and North Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level air pressure. Two relevant processes are identified. One process is the local wind set-up of water due to regional low-frequency wind anomalies; the other is a planetary scale atmosphere-ocean interaction which takes place in the eastern North Pacific.

Elemental carbon record of paleofire history on the Chinese Loess Plateau during the last 420 ka and its response to environmental and climate changes

An elemental carbon (EC) record, covering the last 420 ka, was reconstructed using chemical oxidation method on a loess and paleosol sequence from the Lingtai section on the Chinese Loess Plateau. The EC record reveals the paleofire history and its relationship with climate and vegetation changes on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Our results show that the EC abundance is generally higher in the paleosols than in the loess layers, showing a glacial/interglacial pattern, which is coincident with biomass changes. This variation pattern indicates that paleofires were intensified when biomass accumulated and climate changed abruptly especially from wet to dry conditions. The EC abundance increases sharply at similar to 130 kaB.P., indicating a dramatic change in the vegetation and climate variation patterns. The occurrence of a peak value with the highest average EC abundance in the Holocene may reflect the occurrence of a major climate event at similar to 6 kaB.P., and may also be partly due to more frequent anthropogenic fire usages. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Simulative Study on Effects of Climate Warming on Nutrient Contents and In Vitro Digestibility of Herbage Grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

The increasing trend of air temperature along with the climate warming has been accepted gradual-ly by scientists and by the general public. Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, a unique geographic unit due to high-altitude climate, is one of the most susceptible regions to climate warming. Its ecosystem is very fragile and sensi-tive to climate change. In order to get a better understanding of the impacts of climate warming on the nutrient contents of herbage grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, a simulative study was implemented at Daban Moutain by using temperature differences resulted from sites selected at different altitudes and nutrient contents and in vitro digestibility were determined for assessing the quality of the grown herbage. There were significant downtrends in crude protein (CP), ether extract (EE) and nitrogen free extract (NFE) contents of herbage along with the increase of temperature. It had a positive correlation between temperature and content of acid detergent fibre (ADF), acid detergent lignin (ADL) in herbage. In vitro digestibility of herbage decreased along with the in-crease of temperature. The results of this study indicated that climate warming significantly influence nutrient contents and in vitro digestibility of herbage grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. It is suggested that the future climate warming especially the gradual rise of the night temperature could cause negative effect on herbage quality grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by decreasing CP, EE, and NFE contents and increasing some indi-gestible ingredients such as crude fibre (CF), neutral detergent fibre (NDF), ADF, and ADL. This, conse-quently, decreases the ruminant assimilation ability.

Global negative vegetation feedback to climate warming responses of leaf litter decomposition rates in cold biomes

Whether climate change will turn cold biomes from large long-term carbon sinks into sources is hotly debated because of the great potential for ecosystem-mediated feedbacks to global climate. Critical are the direction, magnitude and generality of climate responses of plant litter decomposition. Here, we present the first quantitative analysis of the major climate-change-related drivers of litter decomposition rates in cold northern biomes worldwide. Leaf litters collected from the predominant species in 33 global change manipulation experiments in circum-arctic-alpine ecosystems were incubated simultaneously in two contrasting arctic life zones. We demonstrate that longer-term, large-scale changes to leaf litter decomposition will be driven primarily by both direct warming effects and concomitant shifts in plant growth form composition, with a much smaller role for changes in litter quality within species. Specifically, the ongoing warming-induced expansion of shrubs with recalcitrant leaf litter across cold biomes would constitute a negative feedback to global warming. Depending on the strength of other (previously reported) positive feedbacks of shrub expansion on soil carbon turnover, this may partly counteract direct warming enhancement of litter decomposition.

Modeling gross primary production of alpine ecosystems in the Tibetan Plateau using MODIS images and climate data

The eddy covariance technique provides measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) Of CO2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, which is widely used to estimate ecosystem respiration and gross primary production (GPP) at a number Of CO2 eddy flux tower sites. In this paper, canopy-level maximum light use efficiency, a key parameter in the satellite-based Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), was estimated by using the observed CO2 flux data and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) data from eddy flux tower sites in an alpine swamp ecosystem, an alpine shrub ecosystem and an alpine meadow ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China. The VPM model uses two improved vegetation indices (Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Land Surface Water Index (LSWI)) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectral radiometer (MODIS) data and climate data at the flux tower sites, and estimated the seasonal dynamics of GPP of the three alpine grassland ecosystems in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The seasonal dynamics of GPP predicted by the VPM model agreed well with estimated GPP from eddy flux towers. These results demonstrated the potential of the satellite-driven VPM model for scaling-up GPP of alpine grassland ecosystems, a key component for the study of the carbon cycle at regional and global scales. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.